Research In Motion: Are Apple And Android Leaving The BlackBerry Maker Behind?

Research In Motion

First Posted: 06/18/11 02:28 PM ET Updated: 08/18/11 06:12 AM ET

MONTREAL - Research In Motion seems to have become a victim of timing on the launch of its new BlackBerry smartphones, causing investor selloffs and raising questions about whether it can still compete against Apple and Android devices, say analysts.

"RIM's core problem is that they don't have any new phones to sell," said PC Magazine analyst Sascha Segan.

Shares in Research In Motion's fell to their lowest level since 2006 on Friday, plunging more than 20 per cent in extremely heavy trading as company's relevance was questioned.

"The mobile market moves so fast that phones released a year ago already look old," Segan said from New York.

On Thursday, Research In Motion (TSX:RIM) announced plans to cut jobs as it works to roll out new smartphones and updated tablets in the months ahead to compete with Apple and Google's Android operating system devices.

Research In Motion said its upgraded BlackBerry Bold and BlackBerry Torch smartphones will be available in late summer, acknowledging it will miss a big chunk of the back-to-school selling season. A new, more powerful generation of BlackBerrys with the same operating system as the PlayBook tablet won't be available until early next year.

"At the end of the day, you have to put new products on your shelves," said Segan, managing editor of PCMag Mobile in New York.

"I see people really perceiving this as yesterday's company that can't get its act together to compete with the latest products."

The Waterloo, Ont., company has already cut profit forecasts for this year. The rollout of its PlayBook tablet came with little fanfare and lukewarm reviews in April, on the heels of the much-publicized launch of Apple's iPad 2 -- which flew off store shelves and has remained one of the hottest tech gadgets on the global market.

RIM stock closed down $7.13, or 21 per cent, at $27.24 on the Toronto Stock Exchange, with 18.6 million shares traded, making it the second most active issue on Toronto's main board.

RIM shares haven't been below $30 on a split-adjusted basis since August 2006.

BMO Capital Markets analyst Tim Long lowered his earnings' estimates for RIM but remained positive overall.

Long said RIM's transition to new products is having a "deeper" impact than expected but he still sees value in the company and in its new products.

"This does not change our view that new products will reinvigorate growth and that there is a lot of unique value within RIM," Long said in a research note. "We remain positive, but don't expect the stock to outperform for a few quarters."

Not all analysts were so generous.

"We do not believe RIM is accurately portraying the increasingly competitive smartphone environment," said Canaccord Genuity Analyst Michael Walkley.

"In fact, we believe the focus on launching the PlayBook ahead of its core BlackBerry products is more to blame for the poor financial results than the corporate structure," Walkley said in a research note.

Analyst Anil Doradla said RIM is a "victim of the hypercompetitive smartphone industry" and the company has had to reset expectations, undermining investor confidence in the timing and competitiveness of its new products.

Doradla said blame for RIM's coming job cuts has to rest with its leadership.

"The jobs cuts are nothing but an outcome of poor execution at the top," said Doradla of Chicago-based William Blair & Co.
UBS Investment Research lowered its price target to US$41 per share. It said the earnings targets for the second half of the current financial year are a stretch but "much of the bad news is out for the time being."

The median price for analyst estimates on Thursday, prior to the RIM's quarterly report, had been US$45 per share according to figures compiled by Thomson Reuters.

In its financial results, RIM said it earned US$695 million or $1.33 per diluted share for the quarter ended May 28 on $4.91 billion in revenue. It had lowered its financial guidance for the quarter in April.

That compared with a profit of $769 million or $1.38 per diluted share a year ago on $4.24 billion in revenue.

The average analyst revenue estimate had been for a profit of $1.33 per share, according to data compiled by Thomson Reuters.

During the quarter, RIM said it shipped approximately 13.2 million BlackBerry devices and approximately 500,000 PlayBook tablets.

By LuAnn LaSalle, The Canadian Press

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MONTREAL - Research In Motion seems to have become a victim of timing on the launch of its new BlackBerry smartphones, causing investor selloffs and raising questions about whether it can still compet...
MONTREAL - Research In Motion seems to have become a victim of timing on the launch of its new BlackBerry smartphones, causing investor selloffs and raising questions about whether it can still compet...
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Saidas
10:45 AM on 06/19/2011
R.I.P. R.I.M.
10:40 PM on 06/18/2011
Losing? They lost the day the iPhone came out and they were buried when Android came out. RIM is doomed. Utterly.
07:02 PM on 06/18/2011
The media seems to be behind Apple, followed by Android. I'm an Android user, formerly an Apple user. I had to add a business line and opted for Blackberry Bold. Really like it for the job phone while my Android for casual use. The Blackberry is a great phone and texting device. I have also noticed just how many ordinary folks like the Blackberry. Teens specifically love the Bold. When I look at the market share, RIM still is no slouch and I say this as someone who follows and cheers Android. So I'm not buying these headlines. Good time to buy RIM. They are far from over. In the touch screen crowd, my money's on Android hands down. It's really Apple shares holders that should be anticipating Apple sliding over the next year as Android continues to slam the market.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Stefan Dembowski
Just an amateur photographer.
06:41 PM on 06/18/2011
Sadly, not a surprise. Their 'tablet' was a big let down...
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Savage Saint Roger
Card Carrying Liberal
06:12 PM on 06/18/2011
Big Crisis headline so I bit. This dribble is taxing. Bankers in a quandary over privacy stealing telephones.
Well, here in the USA, it won't be long until no one can pay the service fees so all the makers of Banker eavesdropping equipment will be unhappy.
05:44 PM on 06/18/2011
yee who have little faith....this is the best buying opp. for the stock. It still will get hammered until all the news is out but look at their balance sheet, trading 4times earn., eps of 7.50, no debt and they make a ton of money. Remeber what happened to coke....new coke almost killed them but they refocused and are king. Every large multinational company suffers a strategic inflection point...this is RIM's. Don't forget the term " CRACKBERRY"....for people who understand...due your DD!
For the record....I have never owned a RIM product but I have followed them since they started trading....IMHO
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
oxjr
03:39 PM on 06/18/2011
RIM people love their phones even if they seem kinda retro now. I think it is the dislike of touch screens. Make them cheap and become the 'fleet' phone of business - it kept the Crown Victoria alive two decades longer than it should have.
05:51 PM on 06/18/2011
....put your iphone down and take 5 steps back....breath....then slap yourself!
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
oxjr
07:58 PM on 06/19/2011
I am being serious actually, Blackberries are solid practical phones that do most of what the touch phones do, but people are migrating to a pure touch screen. I personally prefer actual keys vs virtual keys - and there is a strong segment who feel just the same way. If RIM does not have a sleek new phone in the works - than a price cut and targeting fleet sales of their product seems like a logical way to keep things going until they are ready to be the best in the biz again.
02:15 PM on 06/18/2011
What a shocking turn of events for Canadian business. What are you going to do Canada? Riot ?
05:49 PM on 06/18/2011
Jeb...come on down from the mountain...you shouldn't make comments like that considering that your entire country is in bankruptcy!