Canada Housing Market At A Peak: Forecast

Housing

First Posted: 07/07/11 09:29 AM ET Updated: 09/06/11 06:12 AM ET

THE CANADIAN PRESS -- TORONTO - Royal LePage says Canada's housing market is at its near-term peak, with current high prices concealing early signs of a moderating market.

In its House Price Survey and Market Survey Forecast, Royal LePage says Canada's residential real estate market saw sizable year-over-year price increases in the second quarter.

And, it says the price increases were evident across all housing types surveyed, with the national average price of a detached bungalow has rising the most -- 7.5 per cent year-over-year to $356,625.

The price of a standard two-storey home rose 6.1 per cent to $390,163 and the price of a standard condominium 3.5 per cent to $238,064.

But while prices continue their recent climb, signs of moderation are appearing, although they vary from region to region.

Royal LePage says the national average house price is expected to finish the year 7.7 per cent higher than it was at the end of 2010.

Meanwhile, Statistics Canada reports that its New Housing Price Index rose 0.4 per cent, as Regina recorded the largest percentage increase in the country.

The larger metropolitan areas of Toronto-Oshawa and Montreal were the top contributors to the overall rise in new house prices.

Between April and May, prices increased 1.7 per cent in Regina, 1.0 per cent in Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo, Ont., and 0.9 in Toronto and Oshawa.

StatsCan reports the rise in Regina's prices was mostly a result of increased material, labour and land-development costs, while builders in Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo and in Toronto and Oshawa attributed their increases to competitive market conditions.

Prices remained unchanged in seven of the 21 metropolitan regions surveyed.

The most significant monthly price decline was recorded in Ottawa-Gatineau, down 0.7 per cent as some builders offered promotional pricing or free upgrade packages to generate sales.

Year over year, the index was up 1.9 per cent in May following an identical increase in April.

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THE CANADIAN PRESS -- TORONTO - Royal LePage says Canada's housing market is at its near-term peak, with current high prices concealing early signs of a moderating market. In its House Price Survey...
THE CANADIAN PRESS -- TORONTO - Royal LePage says Canada's housing market is at its near-term peak, with current high prices concealing early signs of a moderating market. In its House Price Survey...
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
logicanada
Blogger, radio co-host, writer, editor, voice-over
07:29 PM on 07/10/2011
If you are basing prices on Toronto, Montreal and Saskatoon your data is flawed and should not be meant to profile "Canadian" home prices. Have a look at Vancouver, Edmonton and Calgary.
06:12 PM on 07/07/2011
We are not buying this time around.

We looked at some homes that i felt were very overpriced but the clincher was the salesperson who was stuffing several fingers up there nose as if looking for a sacred buried treasure while talking and showing us the house.
05:34 PM on 07/07/2011
In the heart of Toronto, people are paying $350,000 OVER asking price for a not-that-large house, relatively central, in a safe neighbourhood, and close to a good public school. And that's after a bidding war.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Norma Ward
02:57 PM on 07/07/2011
As shown here, housing markets in both Calgary and Edmonton are considered moderately unaffordable when looked at in terms of the multiple of median household income to median home price:

http://viableopposition.blogspot.com/2011/02/demographia-international-housing.html

This compares to Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver which are all considered to be severely unaffordable. Both Calgary and Edmonton have high overall household incomes working in their favour when compared to both Toronto and Montreal.
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john frodo
armchair expert
01:06 PM on 07/07/2011
The problem is cheap money, maybe there should be more limits on mortgages. We all cook with gas and what happened in the US could happen here, I hope our economist in charge is taking charge.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
haddanuff
Progressives think 'We' while cons think "Me"
12:55 PM on 07/07/2011
The impending problem with the Canadian real estate market is sustainability.
Without foreign investment ( Asia ) and $90 a barrel oil, the pressure on downsizing salaries combined with the lower income levels of younger people, will inevitably make this market adjust seriously, particularly in B.C. ( not to mention looming interest rate hikes )
Personally, I am preparing for a downturn.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
stopgeorge
Paper Ballots WORK. Unverifiable e-voting doesn't
01:30 PM on 07/07/2011
You would have to be nuts (or be filthy rich enough not to care) to buy a house now.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
haddanuff
Progressives think 'We' while cons think "Me"
02:47 PM on 07/07/2011
I agree!
Presently liquidating all of my real estate assets in Canada.
Cheaper to rent at this time.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
RhiannonRings
Childfree and loving it!
01:00 PM on 07/09/2011
Same here in California - - the SF bay area and good parts of So. Cal.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
greysells2
grey cells matter
11:22 AM on 07/07/2011
I think Canada has had and now does have a 20% down payment requirement for a home purchase. Some mortgages are insured by CHMC and families frequently supply capital to first time home buyers. This cushion is sufficient to cover any correction in the market. Although Canada is affected by the US economy, in a general sense, Canada remains more healthy economically. Canada also has the cushion of having vast energy and natural resources. The resulting jobs mean people are working and they need housing and cars, etc. I think Canada will see normal ups and downs in housing pricing related to supply and demand. Any so called housing "bubble" wil be highly localized.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
stopgeorge
Paper Ballots WORK. Unverifiable e-voting doesn't
11:26 AM on 07/07/2011
Wrong. The minimum is 5% down payment.
12:28 PM on 07/07/2011
Wrong. The minimum to buy is 15% and 5%. Even at that minimum, it depends on the banks if they like you or not. Housing prices are controlled by the banks and CMHC.
12:49 PM on 07/07/2011
It's 5% down for first time buys with good credit. Most put down 10 or 15%.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
stopgeorge
Paper Ballots WORK. Unverifiable e-voting doesn't
11:05 AM on 07/07/2011
Fact: Canadians' debt is soaring.

Fact: The real estate market has been artificially high for a long time now.

Inevitable: The bubble is going to break when interest rates go significantly higher.

This is especially true in Vancouver where you can only buy a shack for $600,000 -- in the outlying suburbs.
12:37 PM on 07/07/2011
Fact: Canadians' debt is soaring because of increased gas prices, cost of living, and expenses that were cheap before, acquired this extra debt while wages average stayed the same.

Fact: There will be a bubble and collapse in the housing market if the banks and CMHC decide to limit the amount of mortgage quota.

Fact: People have to pay rent anyways, even if they don't own a house, same as a mortgage. What's with this nonsense talk about saving Canadians money by making the mortgage lending more difficult to obtain or harsher.

Get your facts straight and look around your environment, people around you, and your community, and you'll see the real truth.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
stopgeorge
Paper Ballots WORK. Unverifiable e-voting doesn't
01:27 PM on 07/07/2011
The "real truth" is that real estate prices are overwhelmingly & artificially high. The other "real truth" is that Canadians are finding it more and more difficult to pay for this.

There will be a day of reckoning -- similar to what was seen in the states.
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Mr Hankey
Kucinich / Sanders (Democratic Socialist)
10:21 AM on 07/07/2011
Canada, please don't follow the tragic course of the usa. Things are really messed up down here because of the housing bubble. We're still not recovered.
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sonoffestus
Got smart & got out!
11:02 AM on 07/07/2011
The real problem here is that 39% of Canadains gave Stevie Wannabe Bush Harper a conservative majority. He's taking us down the same road as the Neocons in the States.

Tax breaks for the corporations, deregulation, and privitization. Did I mention he's pushing for an expanded military?

Housing is the least of our problems. Most Canadians haven't woken up yet. I wonder if they will or they'll mimic their American neighbors and live in ignorance and fear.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
stopgeorge
Paper Ballots WORK. Unverifiable e-voting doesn't
11:13 AM on 07/07/2011
That would be 39% of 60% of Canadians.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
RhiannonRings
Childfree and loving it!
12:56 PM on 07/09/2011
You aren't joking!
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gwinegarden
She's an Arctic Wolf
09:08 AM on 07/07/2011
Is the bubble about to burst?
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
stopgeorge
Paper Ballots WORK. Unverifiable e-voting doesn't
11:09 AM on 07/07/2011
In a word -- yes.
02:01 AM on 07/10/2011
Honestly though...for someone who bought several years ago (or earlier) there really aren't many alternatives. Their mortgage cost is still cheaper than the rent alternative.