Mortgages in Canada: Debt Crisis Could Keep Mortgage Rates Low

Mortgage Rates Debt Crisis

First Posted: 08/08/11 01:51 PM ET Updated: 10/08/11 06:12 AM ET

If the mortgage meltdown that nearly laid waste to the global economy a few years ago taught us anything, it's that you should never base your decision to buy a home on cheap rates.

But if you have to get a mortgage, there may no better time to sign on the dotted line -- at least if you live in Canada.

Despite widespread speculation that, by now, world markets would be chugging along and inexpensive borrowing costs would be a distant memory, economic uncertainty is once again prompting investors to seek refuge in government debt, including Canadian bonds. That could push mortgage rates to historic lows.

Quite simply, says Canadian Mortgage Trends editor Robert McLister, "Now is literally one of the best times in history to get a mortgage."

As McLister explains, the rates for five-year fixed mortgages, the most popular mortgage term in Canada, are closely tied to five-year Canadian bond yields. When investors flood these uber-safe assets, as they've done in recent weeks, the rate of return (otherwise known as the yield) falls through the floor.

When markets opened Monday, Canadian five-year bond yields had dipped to 1.69 per cent -- just a few tenths above January 2009, when yields sunk to 1.53 per cent.

"We are approaching credit crisis lows here, and that's basically the bond market saying there's a lot of risks to the economy. It's saying that there's not a lot of inflation on the horizon, and inflation is the biggest factor for guiding interest rates," says McLister.

Though fixed mortgage rates have yet to reflect the drop in bond yields, McLister says there’s good reason to expect that a significant adjustment could be coming soon.

"At the moment, banks are hesitant to cut advertised fixed mortgage rates until they sense that yields have stabilized," says McLister, who published a post about why banks have yet to significantly cut mortgage rates on his blog Monday morning. "[But] barring a dramatic rebound in yields, fixed rates will come down further."

A drop in mortgage rates would represent a significant change in direction following months of speculation that rates were headed for a hike. Though the Bank of Canada decided in July to once again hold its benchmark overnight rate at 1 per cent, The Globe and Mail reported at the time that "[m]ost economists see the overnight rate climbing by 75 or 100 basis points in the next year, which would bring it to 1.75 per cent or 2 per cent."

But no matter how the current trend shakes out, it’s a mistake to get too comfortable with low rates.

As McLister points out, the sudden reversal is a testament to how quickly the circumstances can change.

"No one foresaw a couple of years ago that rates would potentially be making new lows [today], and that just speaks to how difficult it is to actually time the mortgage market -- how hard it is to predict rates," he says. "Anything can happen."

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11:25 AM on 08/09/2011
This would not be a good time to buy in NL. Housing prices are skyrocketing, especialy in St. John's. And these super-low rates might seem nice, but they'll go back up, and that over-priced home you bought will lose value, while your mortgage rate does not. wait a couple of years, put away a larger downpayment, and wait for the foreclosures: they're coming.
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Steve Karmazenuk
Author, Freelance Journalist, Curmudgeon
09:29 AM on 08/09/2011
Debt-Free?

Now's a good time to NOT change that, keep living within your means, going without unnecessary things, and saving up money and staples for tougher times...because they are a-coming.

You know why you're being "advised" to go back into debt? Because once back in debt, you're back under the yoke of a system that you pay to indenture you to it!

Save up for that new whatever you need, or buy secondhand if you can't afford to wait to afford brand new.

Think about this: The inability of the forces of capitalism to stave off their own debt has crippled America financially; same thing's happening all over the world. Why cripple yourselves? If you're debt free, stay debt free. The word in the phrase debt-free is "FREE".
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Valerie Keefe
left-wing euro-tory trans lesbian
02:45 AM on 08/09/2011
If the principal is reasonable then this WOULD be a good time to get a mortgage on it. Unfortunately most homes are showing rent-price ratios in the high teens to low twenties and future rent-price ratios are even lower. As well the homes are going to fail to keep up with inflation since the assets are overvalued by up to 40%.

My advice: If you can find a one-bedroom apartmentin Edmonton for 60K? Not a bad buy. Toronto for 90? Eh, Mebbe. Single-detached should cost less because the carrying costs will eat you alive in the next fifteen-to-twenty years as heating fuel capacity lags behind demand.

Get an apartment. Get near high-speed transit. Get out of homes that cost 5 years' income... only buy something you can carry when the mortgage rates come back to 9%

When Oil hits a 12 month low of $71 a barrel... when that's the absolute floor in a global recession... it's time to be a bear on suburbia.
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stopgeorge
Paper Ballots WORK. Unverifiable e-voting doesn't
01:52 AM on 08/09/2011
This is probably the WORST time to consider buying property.

The real estate bubble in Canada is quite high -- especially in British Columbia.

The bubble will burst when the record number of Canadians in debt face increasing mortgage rates -- which may not happen as soon as anticipated. But it will happen in the next couple of years -- guaranteed.
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12:34 AM on 08/09/2011
Duh, propagandy to help the bank's. Lining up the suckers for higher interest rates on mortgages. I love business! Please vote for Charlie.S. for President.
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PiperSniper
09:49 AM on 08/09/2011
Prime Minister?