Federal Reserve To Keep Key U.S. Interest Rate Near Zero Until 2013

Federal Reserve Bernanke

First Posted: 08/09/11 03:45 PM ET Updated: 10/09/11 06:12 AM ET

WASHINGTON - The Federal Reserve sketched a dim outlook for the economy Tuesday, suggesting it will remain weak for two more years. As a result, the Fed said it expects to keep its key interest rate near zero through mid-2013.

It's the first time the Fed has pegged its "exceptionally low" rates to a specific date. The Fed had previously said only that it would keep it key rate at record lows for "an extended period."

Stocks plunged after the statement was released, but then shot up shortly after. The Dow Jones industrial average sank more than 176 points, then recovered its losses and gained more than 120 points in late-afternoon trading.

Fears of another U.S. recession — and worries about how governments will deal with global debt problems — continue to roil financial markets around the world.

"Crises of confidence do not have silver bullet solutions," TD Bank senior economist James Marple said in a research note Tuesday.

"The Fed’s action today is unprecedented and will have a modest positive stimulative impact on near-term economic growth.

It "may prove to be more stimulative a little down the road. The market appears to be pricing in a very significant chance of a recession. By removing some uncertainty about future Fed actions, longer-term rates should remain lower for longer."

The low rates in the United States will put more pressure on the Bank of Canada to keep borrowing costs on hold north of the border as well.

There had been recent speculation that the Canadian central bank would begin raising rates this fall to curb inflationary pressures in the Canadian economy, which has been growing faster than the United States.

However, economists say the recent stock market turmoil and the fears of a double-dip recession in the United States has made it likely that rates won't rise in Canada until next spring at the earliest.

That's good news for the Canadian housing sector, which has expanded strongly because of low mortgage rates and solid economic growth in recent years.

After the Fed move, many investors sought the safety of long-term Treasurys, whose yields fell as low as 2.07 per cent.

"There is a definite undertone of significant economic concern from the Federal Reserve," said Greg McBride, an economist with Bankrate.com.

University of Oregon economist Timothy Duy called the move "weak medicine."

Duy said he wanted to see the Fed commit to buying more Treasury bonds, to try to keep long-term rates down, until the economy improved.

The Fed's two-year time frame for any rate increase underscored a stark reality: A sluggish economy and painfully high unemployment have become chronic.

The Fed did hold out the promise of further help down the road but did not spell out what else it might do.

The central bank's decision was approved on a 7-3 vote with three Fed regional bank presidents who have been worried about inflation objecting. It was the first time since November 1992 that as many as three Fed members have dissented from a policy statement.

The Fed used significantly more downbeat language to describe current economic conditions. It said so far this year the economy has grown "considerably slower" than the Fed had expected and that consumer spending "has flattened out." It also said that temporary factors, such as high energy prices and the Japan crisis, only accounted for "some of the recent weakness" in economic activity.

The more explicit time frame is aimed at calming nervous investors. It offered them a clearer picture of how long they will be able to obtain ultra-cheap credit, and was at least a year longer than many economists had expected.

Fed officials met against a backdrop of speculation that they would say or do something new to address a darkening economic picture. The stock market has plunged and government data have signalled a weaker economy in the four weeks since Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress that the Fed was ready to act if conditions worsened.

The economy grew at an annual rate of just 0.8 per cent in the first six months of the year. Consumers have cut spending for the first time in 20 months. Wages are barely rising. Manufacturing is growing only slightly. And service companies are expanding at the slowest pace in 17 months.

Employers hired more in July than during the previous two months. But the number of jobs added was far fewer than needed to significantly dent the unemployment rate, now at 9.1 per cent. The rate has exceeded 9 per cent in all but two months since the recession officially ended in June 2009.

Fear that another recession is unavoidable, along with worries that Europe may be unable to contain its debt crisis, has rattled stock markets. The Dow Jones industrial average has lost nearly 15 per cent of its value since July 21. On Monday, it fell 634 points — its worst day since 2008 and sixth-worst drop in history.

The tailspin on Wall Street was further fueled by Standard & Poor's decision to downgrade long-term U.S. debt.

Bernanke didn't speak publicly after Tuesday's Fed meeting. The chairman this year made a historic change by scheduling news conferences after four of the Fed's eight policy meetings each year, but Tuesday's wasn't one of them.

Later this month at the Fed's annual retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyo., Bernanke will likely address the weakening economy, the S&P downgrade and the market turmoil.

Earlier this summer, the Fed ended a $600 billion Treasury bond-buying program. The bond purchases were intended to keep rates low to encourage spending and borrowing and lift stock prices.

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WASHINGTON - The Federal Reserve sketched a dim outlook for the economy Tuesday, suggesting it will remain weak for two more years. As a result, the Fed said it expects to keep its key interest rate n...
WASHINGTON - The Federal Reserve sketched a dim outlook for the economy Tuesday, suggesting it will remain weak for two more years. As a result, the Fed said it expects to keep its key interest rate n...
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07:53 PM on 08/09/2011
That'll do the trick eh. Since this guy has been so accurate before and never been wrong... guess two more years of interest rate manipulation is bang on. One word to describe this guy 'feckless'
07:18 PM on 08/09/2011
"Exceptionally low interest rates" mean that there is little or no difference between the present value and future value of the money being loaned. It is in effect worthless. Yet another attempt by the Fed to falsely inflate the value of the stock market and devalue our massive debt all in one fell swoop. QE3
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Dan Bates
still kicken
06:32 PM on 08/09/2011
The rates change when the polls taken on Obama turn bad...Dont forget Bernanke was appointed by Gearge W Bush....Never forget...Obama saw he was a good shill so he kept him on....
06:24 PM on 08/09/2011
Let's see....and how many governmental promises have been kept?
06:20 PM on 08/09/2011
Up until the seventies, human capital ie the Value of the values possessed by the individuals creating quality goods and services mirroring their own being was at the base of the growing economy.
Those who had value created valuable products.
Then slowly but surely the game changed from Being valuable from defining ones self-being by what we had.
The pendulum seems to have swung almost as far as it can go and so we find ourselves in a North American (and European) culture where values of being are undervalued if not almost completely devalued.

The average individual has value as a consumer not as a creator.

Unfortunately, the rotten apples are now at the top of the barrels - Enron, Fanny Mae and Freddy Mac, Nortel etc etc...
Why such huge salarieis to the top CEOs?
Because they have no values. He who has no values does not value honesty , integrity, courage etc AND they can be bought. Thus high salaries in order to protect the shareholders from dishonest CEOs ! Lovely yes?

I believe that another crash is long overdue and no matter what the powers that be can do to stop the inevitable from happenning, the pendulum will get to the end of it's rope and start swinging the other way going down as it must along the way.

The bright side - Values of being will begin to be valued again!

The game is about to change.

Will you change with it?

John S.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Dan Bates
still kicken
06:17 PM on 08/09/2011
Ya must go back to FDR the patron saint of progressives, he gave us more federally controlled banks the Federal Reserrve, (10 of them) Fannie Mae, The Import/Export Bank, and some that are top secret, known only to the olorgogy..and an investment firm that Chelsea Clinton was employed at, that is so secretive it's stock symbol is known only to their insiders....this is why we are taxed so high...
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mac2jr
The truth always wins out
06:13 PM on 08/09/2011
This will be interesting, corporate America keeps telling us that they cannot make decisions due to the uncertainty of the money and credit, so President Obama is calling their bluff, let's see how this works.
RSK1177
Concerned
06:23 PM on 08/09/2011
mac2jr...corporate America hasn't been complaining about the lack of money and credit. They have plenty of cash on hand. They're concerned about the growing regulations being put on private enterprise and what Obamacare will do their businesses. Corporate America's uncertainty is about the deficits and national debt and what Obama might do to increase revenue, otherwise known as taxes !
JDSept
too much of everything is just enough
06:35 PM on 08/09/2011
BOGUS Corp taxes are at their lowest in 50 years. If anything regulations should be stricter so wall street and the banks couldn't put us in this situation like they did in 2008.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Dan Bates
still kicken
06:11 PM on 08/09/2011
Speaking of robbey, Bank of America's assets are 2.264 TRILLION and they got BAIL-OUT MONEY..And they hand the sheeple the low interest rate spin...WITH A STRAIGHT FACE...
ccsysglf
question the question
07:17 PM on 08/09/2011
there was a little smirk....
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
foerschnerr
It's easier to do things right the first time.
01:05 PM on 08/10/2011
I heard lots of loud laughter in a back room.
RSK1177
Concerned
06:08 PM on 08/09/2011
Is it just coincidence that the FED announced keeping the interest rate the same until mid 2013? Obama's applying the full court press in his attempt at re-election. First the new debt limit good until 2013 and now a near zero interest rate until mid 2013. Obama may regret it if the FED has enough backbone to increase interest rates and let the free enterprise system work. Interest rates should have been raised higher but have been kept the same since Dec. 2008 and that hasn't really helped the economy recover. If people are borrowing at record low interest rates, what are they doing with the money? It isn't showing up in the economy!
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mac2jr
The truth always wins out
06:17 PM on 08/09/2011
Obama is calling their bluff. They claim they will hire and invest in America if they get their way, so here it is, they got it, --- don't hold your breath...
JDSept
too much of everything is just enough
06:19 PM on 08/09/2011
So raising interest rates for morgages, cars and loans will make the economy better? I think not.
RSK1177
Concerned
06:41 PM on 08/09/2011
Okay genius...Just keep printing more money and give it away.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Brian Berneker
I have an opinion and I'm not afraid to state it!
10:04 AM on 08/10/2011
It only makes the banks richer.
06:06 PM on 08/09/2011
So, if inflation skyrockets due to QE1 and QE2 and whatever else the Fed is doing (we don't know, do we?), rates will stay at zero? The inmates are truly running the asylum. God help us all.
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06:02 PM on 08/09/2011
Yes....every entity on earth can borrow money at low interest rates.....

except You and Me.
JDSept
too much of everything is just enough
06:22 PM on 08/09/2011
Bull, you can buy a car now of you time it right at 0.0 interest. You can get a morgage at the lowest on 50 years. You can get a home equity loan at the lowest ever. All you need to do is show you can pay it back. The banks or auto companies haven't closed.
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08:28 AM on 08/11/2011
The point is that the standard for qualifying for loans has become ridiculously high.

IF you can qualify for a loan today.....you don't need it.

The Rates are low. Banks are NOT making loans.

Car finance companies are not banks.
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05:58 PM on 08/09/2011
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!! we, savers, want higher interest rates! PLEASE!
RSK1177
Concerned
06:10 PM on 08/09/2011
LizPierce...you are correct. The low interest rates aren't attracting investors. The Treasury just keeps printing more money. Time is coming when it will be time to "pay the Piper."
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mac2jr
The truth always wins out
06:19 PM on 08/09/2011
If this is not working, then what makes you or anyone else think that cutting the Corporate tax rate will do anything? Truth people is that China's workers work in unsafe conditions, with little to no benefits, and for $40 per month and that is where Corporate America wants US to be..
JDSept
too much of everything is just enough
06:24 PM on 08/09/2011
If banks can't give out loans where will they get the money to pay higher interest? They are tied together.
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08:48 AM on 08/11/2011
people can adjust to free market ups and downs. we cannot adjust to government manipulated market ups and downs.
ccsysglf
question the question
05:56 PM on 08/09/2011
washington,jefferson,adams and friends that forged this country forbid banks from loaning money to the federal government, so government would not be beholding to the banks in any way. FADE TO GREY, early 20th century bankers talked the congress and senate into voting into law the right of federal government to borrow from banks to extend their budget, federal reserve bank created and irs comes in play as the collection arm of the federal reserve(income tax) to defray budget cost of the us government. FADE TO BLACK and here we are today, i guess jefferson an buddies knew a thing or two after all. this is the short story on this subject, but covers most of the details.
05:53 PM on 08/09/2011
The Federal Reserve under Greenspan caused the housing crisis, in an attempt to create a condition that would allow the federal and local governments to collect increased taxes. The seeds for this disaster were planted in 2003 when the Federal Reserve set artificially low interest rates. In the five years prior to 2008 housing had risen on average 180%, meanwhile wages optimistically had risen 17%. There has to be some correlation between what you pay for a home and what you make, this wage to housing matrix is way out of wack. The Federal Reserve by having artificially low interest rates had caused this speculative real estate market where housing has risen way out of reason. The low to middle class homeowner has been trapped in a mortgage that they are upside down in. Its simple if you bought a home in the two years prior to 2008 you owe twice what the home is actually worth. The Federal Reserve caused this over valuation so the increased real estate valves would allow the Government to collect increased taxes. The Federal government collected a windfall of capital gains taxes on real estate flipped and Local governments collected vastly increased property taxes. Call it the war tax, someone has to pay for the trillion dollar Iraq war. Lower interest will not help the homeowner who cannot afford the increased taxes and the increases in insurance.
05:43 PM on 08/09/2011
This small statement from the Fed has given business the stability they needed and has fueled the upward swing in the stock market. Obama needs to learn from this. If you offer stability and a known friendly atmosphere to business and employers the economy and therefore the job market will be rewarded with confident investment and business activity. If you keep beating on business and employers, heaping regulation after regulation on them and topping it off with a constant barrage of let's furthere tax the employers and corporations, you get employers and corporations who are too uneasy to re-invest back into a hostile economy being run by hostile politicians.
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05:57 PM on 08/09/2011
It isn't that he doesn't know these things.

He has another agenda.

He is dangerous.
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mac2jr
The truth always wins out
06:05 PM on 08/09/2011
First all the regulations have been passed, as needed and wanted by the American Public which is sick of the BS of Corporate America.

If Corporate America does not want regulations, then they have to stop cheating customers, stop screwing over suppliers, stop abusing employees, stop polluting the earth, stop ripping off the IRS, stop shipping jobs overseas, stop their greed and destruction. Then, maybe we can allow them to have less regulations and more freedom to operate, until then bring on the REGULATIONS...
08:14 PM on 08/09/2011
mac2jr,
You make a great example of exactly what I am talking about. Why would any "for profit" corporation / employer want to open a business and employ people in an environment filled with Progressive duped Liberals who openly display distaste for employers. Enjoy your anti-employer attitude and I hope your employer sticks around for you, because there is a lot of Americans out of work right now because corporations and employers have left your neck of the woods because of the open hostility they experience from people like you and the politicians you vote for.