Ontario Election: Poll Suggests McGuinty Has A Solid Lead In Home Stretch

Dalton Mcguinty

First Posted: 10/04/11 08:50 PM ET Updated: 12/04/11 05:12 AM ET

TORONTO - A new poll suggests the Ontario Liberals have taken a solid lead into the home stretch of the election campaign.

The poll by Ipsos Reid puts the Liberals at 41 per cent support among decided voters and the Progressive Conservatives at 31 per cent support.

It places the New Democrats at 25 per cent support and the Green Party at three per cent.

The poll marks a major shift from recent surveys that had the Liberals and Conservatives in a dead heat, raising the prospect of Ontario's first minority government in 26 years.

In July, an Ipsos Reid poll showed the Tories with an 11-point lead, but the latest numbers suggest that support has slipped significantly over the last three months.

Ipsos Reid says its poll suggests the Liberals are headed back to government, potentially with a majority.

The poll surveyed 1,020 adults by telephone between Sept. 30 and Oct. 3.

The results are considered accurate within plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 9 times out of 10.

The poll was conducted for Global News, CFRB NewsTalk 1010 and the Ottawa Citizen.

SEE WHO ONTARIO'S NEWSPAPERS ENDORSED BELOW:

The Globe And Mail - McGuinty
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The Globe's endorsement frames McGuinty as the moderate and experienced choice in tough economic times. While it praises Hudak's "basically sound political and economic principles," it faults him for spending the campaign criticizing McGuinty rather than outlining his vision for Ontario's future. The editorial completely discounts the NDP, arguing their "dangerously flawed" ideas could seriously damage Ontario's economy if the party is given a chance to influence policy either in government or within a minority. (CP)
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TORONTO - A new poll suggests the Ontario Liberals have taken a solid lead into the home stretch of the election campaign.The poll by Ipsos Reid puts the Liberals at 41 per cent support among decided ...
TORONTO - A new poll suggests the Ontario Liberals have taken a solid lead into the home stretch of the election campaign.The poll by Ipsos Reid puts the Liberals at 41 per cent support among decided ...
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xphilosoph
Almost nothing is actually impossible.
05:03 PM on 10/06/2011
Hudak ran a poor campaign, based on "bad things McGuinty has done".

He went too negative and never clearly articulated what he would do differently to fix the things he claimed needed fixing.
I tried finding detailed policy info on the PC web site, but it was vague and pretty useless.

Although I am generally a PC supporter, he and his team did a pretty bad job of creating and communicating their policies.
So I will not be very surprised if the Liberals win, either minority or sadly majority.

Being in Mississauga, I am also extremely disappointed at the way electoral riding's have been drawn up. They currently run from lake Ontario (south end) to beyond Brampton (north end).
So the bulk of the population of some ridings is actually in another city, which is unnecessary, and unfair and undemocratic.

This means that some ridings are heavily weighted with new immigrant populations and candidates.
Unfortunately that means that the rest of us are not meaningfully represented as we would be by a more local candidate.
The ridings should more closely resemble the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) real estate areas map.

Ridings should be as geographically localized as possible, while maintaining comparable populations. They should not be arbitrarily sliced up for the sake of political greed and convenience of the party in power.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
piceaglauca
The picture says it all....
09:01 PM on 10/06/2011
White is an ethnic minority now inToronto . As you are south you are right but that being said you could relocate to east of the 427 between Bloor and the 401 and west of Scarlett Rd. As for PC representation. Where would you move to ensure that? Besides , as long as your party is not winning the election it won't matter from an elected officials point of view. They get a nice salary and a pension. They sit back for the next four years and talk in the house from time to time.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
anugs
07:19 AM on 10/06/2011
Hudak blew it, he didn't run a solid campaign. Get ready to open up your wallets Ontario. Envision McGuinty, smiling like he always does, as he sticks his hand in your pocket again and again and.....
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
All Seeing Guy
Center of the storm
01:55 AM on 10/06/2011
Get er done McGuinty, you're the only thing standing between Ontario and complete domination by Canadian Tea Party style politics.
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BBlitzer
My micro-bio is empty
08:57 AM on 10/06/2011
And this may very well be the crux of it. Anyone in the Toronto area feels surrounded by a sort of "TeaParty Lite" with Ford on one end and Harper on the other. There is definately a fell of a need for some sort of refuge from it all.
06:10 PM on 10/05/2011
I am interested in Canadian politics so being from USA, it would be inappropriate for me to chime in with my views...I viewed a doc about News of the World in the UK and the phone hacking scandal...if that interests anybody here, you can find it at top documentaries online...a great place for many issues...
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Shakeshaft
Socialist Canadian Infidel
05:31 PM on 10/05/2011
I'm not a McGunity supporter per se, but given the choice between him and Tea Party Tim, I would MUCH rather have a Liberal negotiating the Health Accord with the Harper Conservatives...it's no secret that much of the right-wingers in this country want to repeal our universal health care, best not to give them any more control over the deal.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Awake-and-Sing
named after a great play written by Clifford Odets
12:06 PM on 10/06/2011
That one issue is what is likely to keep a Liberal government in power in Ontario.
thephuqqer
not the chicken plucker.
03:44 PM on 10/05/2011
Hraper and Ford in Toronto won't be happy.................they were looking for a Tory win to bring tea-party like politics to the forefront.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Awake-and-Sing
named after a great play written by Clifford Odets
04:00 PM on 10/05/2011
I guess they shouldn't have been openly rooting for a "hat trick" for conservatives.

The desire for checks and balances against total conservative control is overwhelming the lack of enthusiasm for the McGuinty Liberal government itself.
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Maria Korovessis Sewell
To decimate is to reduce by one tenth.
08:14 PM on 10/05/2011
McGuinty owes Rob a muffin basket at the very least.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
piceaglauca
The picture says it all....
02:59 PM on 10/05/2011
Just a little less and an Orange Wave" would be nice.
01:13 PM on 10/05/2011
Good,enough of the god damm right wing conservative agenda.Enough.
01:28 PM on 10/05/2011
Amen.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Scoville Scale
Canadian Contrarian
11:06 AM on 10/05/2011
Hudak ran a low-road, American style, attack campaign.
Ontarians can see through this stuff, and he's paying the price.
Well, that, and he has absolutely no solutions of his own.
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BBlitzer
My micro-bio is empty
12:35 PM on 10/05/2011
And yet sadly it worked so well for Harper. McGuinty definitely took the high road on this one - pointing out what they have accomplished and what they hope to do. Sure not everything he did has been perfect, but he did not stoop to attacking his counterparts.
01:31 PM on 10/05/2011
Not only a "low-road ... attack campaign", he didn't even have the cojones to do the voice-over himself. None of his TV ads featured Hudak speaking, telling us his & his party's platform. Just scary-sounding sound-track and misrepresentation of facts.

He deserves to lose.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Miller Time
10:16 AM on 10/05/2011
All I can say is that if the people of Ontario give McGuinty another government of any kind, they only prove just how stupid they really are.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Awake-and-Sing
named after a great play written by Clifford Odets
12:09 PM on 10/05/2011
Ontarians seem to want a political counterweight to Harper's Conservative government. That sounds smart to many people.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Miller Time
12:45 PM on 10/05/2011
McGuinty will raise your taxes, again! He will not call it taxes but user fees or some other figment of his immagination. And for another four years we will say, what the H*** have we done?
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
piceaglauca
The picture says it all....
03:01 PM on 10/05/2011
There is bad and very bad. Given the choice a vote for the Liberals is not necessarily a yes vote. The voter is just saying we don't want the Concervatives.
This comment has been removed.
09:02 AM on 10/05/2011
Maybe people are getting smarter. Every election whether federal or provincial the same conservative strategy of attack ads come out and the same talking points of lowering taxes and creating jobs. The latter two issues are directly opposite to what conservative governments have always done which is raise taxes and shed jobs.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Runey
religion is why we can't have nice things.
09:16 AM on 10/05/2011
to be honest i'm not a fan of macguinty's latest ideas of balance either though, including reducing public services
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
PG13
08:18 AM on 10/05/2011
You got Conservative in Ottawa in municipally in Toronto. The last Ontario needs is a the provincial Harris boys taking it provincially.
01:51 PM on 10/05/2011
And Harris 'girls'. Mrs. Hudak is the former Deb Hutton, and was, er, 'friendly' with Mr. Harris.
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Leslie James Dalzell
One day at a time
07:03 AM on 10/05/2011
We are still suffering the damages brought forth from Harris and the common sense revolution ( ie amalgamation ) In the end they all want to f$*k you but at least the NDP and Liberals use a little lube and sweet talk the PC just spit and shove and don't care if your in pain!
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HUFFPOST COMMUNITY MODERATOR
elizlucinda
a mind is a terrible thing to waste
06:46 AM on 10/05/2011
We had a McGuinty rally late last night in Windsor and you can feel the big "mo". There were at least 200 people there at 9:30 in the evening.