Gilles Duceppe Could Lead Parti Québécois To Majority Government in Quebec, Poll Suggests

Gilles Duceppe

The Huffington Post Canada   Eric Grenier First Posted: 11/01/11 10:16 AM ET Updated: 11/01/11 10:37 AM ET

Though Quebecers forced Gilles Duceppe out of Ottawa on May 2, they seem to like the idea of installing him in Quebec City instead.

And that means another blow for Pauline Marois' leadership of the Parti Québécois.

The latest poll from Léger Marketing indicates the PQ's troubles are continuing, and that if an election were held today the party would be shunted off to third place.

The winner would be François Legault's Coalition pour l'avenir du Québec (CAQ), which would form a strong majority government and face off against Jean Charest's Liberals, demoted to the role of Official Opposition.

Legault is expected to launch his party on November 14. It is already leading in the polls despite its non-existence, and according to this latest set of numbers the CAQ would take 35 per cent of the vote, well ahead of the Liberals' 22 per cent and the Parti Québécois' 20 per cent.

A majority of Quebecers think Pauline Marois should step down -- including a good deal of PQ supporters.

Waiting in the wings is Gilles Duceppe, former leader of the Bloc Québécois. Though Duceppe and Marois appeared together at a partisan event over the weekend, there is little doubt that Duceppe covets the job he briefly ran for in 2007.

But Marois is pledging to hold on, and Duceppe may not be willing to force her out.

Based on the latest poll results, however, the party might do that for him. With Duceppe as leader of the Parti Québécois, the sovereigntist party would take 37 per cent of the vote, more than it did in 2008's provincial election.

More importantly, Legault's CAQ would be pushed down to only 25 per cent support, with Charest's Liberals at 21 per cent.

This would be more than enough of a gap for Gilles Duceppe to win a majority of seats in Quebec's National Assembly. Legault and the Liberals would likely battle it out for the runner-up spot.

That Duceppe could lead the PQ to victory, suggests Legault's CAQ may be filling a "none of the above" role. Duceppe has always been a popular politician in Quebec, despite the drubbing in the last federal election. But after being the leader of the Bloc for 14 years, Duceppe is hardly a breath of fresh air.

The breakthrough of the New Democrats in the province and the popularity of Legault's new party seemed to indicate a thirst for something different in Quebec.

But with the province's voters seemingly ready to turn to Duceppe, it appears that Quebecers are not so much searching for something new, as for someone who isn't Jean Charest or Pauline Marois.

Éric Grenier taps The Pulse of federal and regional politics for Huffington Post Canada readers on most Tuesdays and Fridays. Grenier is the author of ThreeHundredEight.com, covering Canadian politics, polls, and electoral projections.

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Though Quebecers forced Gilles Duceppe out of Ottawa on May 2, they seem to like the idea of installing him in Quebec City instead. And that means another blow for Pauline Marois' leadership of the...
Though Quebecers forced Gilles Duceppe out of Ottawa on May 2, they seem to like the idea of installing him in Quebec City instead. And that means another blow for Pauline Marois' leadership of the...
 
 
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01:06 PM on 11/01/2011
So what is this Coalition pour l'avenir du Québec? Another separatist party or what? Their website has no English on it.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Allan Tanny
democracy not anarchy
12:40 PM on 11/01/2011
What a place I live in. The current favourite has no party and basically no announced plan yet he would win a majority. I'm sure it makes sense, just not to me. The party that is in 3rd place in the current polls would vault into a majority government position if they change their leader for a man who couldn't even win his own riding in the last federal election.
This just proves the point that polls mean nothing in Quebec, and basically nor does elections. I have no clue as to what sense people here respond to when voting, although "none" might be the one.
And thus is the danger of future referendums. In a place where we can have endless referendums until the yes side finally wins one, a referendum can be won on a whim. And of course once won, there is no going back. Very scary for the non-independentiste.
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ljkcan
I don't let geographical borders limit my thinking
11:43 AM on 11/01/2011
Although I am the furthest thing from a separatist, I have no doubt he could lead the PQ. On the Federal stage Gilles Duceppe in his better years was at sometimes the only politician that made sense in debates.

The only thing I question is, is he tapped into the main problem which is people people are not into it seperatism anymore just dealing with everyday life. The last federal election proved that.