Extreme Weather Takes Growing Toll

First Posted: 11/18/11 04:09 PM ET Updated: 11/19/11 06:34 AM ET

Climate Change


Deaths and damages from extreme weather and climate-related disasters are increasing significantly, but climate change isn't the main culprit, says a new report by the IPCC.


"The trend of losses is rising and rising rather rapidly," said Paul Kovacs, executive director of the Toronto-based Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction and a co-author of the report, at a news conference Friday.


However, the main factors behind the mounting losses are socioeconomic, says the 29-page summary report released by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change aimed at policy-makers.


"There are more people, we have more things," Kovacs said.


"We can't exclude the role of climate change, but it is not the primary driver."


Nevertheless, the summary of the Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation recommends adaptation to climate change and disaster risk management as ways to manage the risks of climate extremes and disasters.


The full report will be released in February 2012. It is being drafted in response to the IPCC's 2007 findings that increased heat waves and heavy precipitation events were very likely and increases in droughts, tropical cyclones, and sea levels were likely as the climate changes.


Extreme weather-related losses varied widely among different regions and over different years, the IPCC reported Friday.


Absolute economic losses were higher in developed countries such as Canada, but deaths and economic losses as a proportion of the GDP are far higher in developing nations.


"This is a big issue around the world, but it is particularly hitting hard in poor countries," Kovacs said, noting that the vast majority of weather-related fatalities — about 95 per cent — take place in the poorest nations.


While richer nations set aside funds in advance in the form of insurance to prepare for natural disasters, which can be mobilized quickly following the disaster, poorer countries must rely on aid that arrives in a very ad-hoc way, Kovacs said. Nations are currently discussing how to make disaster recovery resources such as insurance available to other parts of the world, he added.


While the growing toll of extreme weather so far may not be primarily climate-driven, the report found that it is likely climate change is driving certain types of extreme weather:


- An overall increase in the number of warm days and a decrease in cold days globally, and an increase in the length and number of heat waves in many regions.


- More heavy precipitation events in some regions, which statistics show are more common than regions where such events have decreased.


Implications for Canada


Xuebin Zhang, an Environment Canada research scientist who also co-authored the report, said that means in Canada:


- The maximum temperature in a given 20-year period will likely increase by two to four degrees by the end of the 21st century.


- An amount of precipitation falling in one day that is so extreme it is currently seen only once in 20 years will likely be seen once every five or 10 years by the end of the 21st century.


Gordon McBean, director of policy studies at the Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction and other co-author of the report, said in Canada, infrastructure has been designed by using old weather statistics to predict the level of extreme one-day rainfall, for example, can be expected once in 100 years.


Now, he said, "we're having them happening obviously much more often than 1 in 100 years."


He said cities need to have a new look at their building codes, land use planning and the design of infrastructure such as sewer systems.


Kovacs agreed: "Municipalities who are able to focus on having infrastructure that is designed for tomorrow's weather, as well as today's weather, are far less likely to have citizens experience losses like basement flooding."


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Deaths and damages from extreme weather and climate-related disasters are increasing significantly, but climate change isn't the main culprit, says a new report by the IPCC. "...
Deaths and damages from extreme weather and climate-related disasters are increasing significantly, but climate change isn't the main culprit, says a new report by the IPCC. "...
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
MrBIgp
If I'm wrong, please show me
11:38 PM on 11/23/2011
The great killer in the world is poverty. The WHO estimates 18 million deaths a year are poverty related. This article says 95% of the weather related deaths take place in the poorest nations. It would seem that money would be better spent in improving the infrastructure of the poorest nations, than trying to convert the rich nations to solar and wind.
11:15 AM on 11/21/2011
The story says:
"Deaths and damages from extreme weather and climate-related disasters are increasing significantly, but climate change isn't the main culprit, says a new report by the IPCC."

What part of "but climate change isn't the main culprit, says a new report by the IPCC." don't you understand ?
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gallon
Those who fail to remember history are, um
12:02 PM on 11/21/2011
So, deaths and damages are from extreme weather. And climate related disaster are increasing signifcantly. Furthermore, the trend of losses is rising and rising rather rapidly. Seems very clear to me.
09:02 PM on 11/21/2011
The story is very clear about it.

"Climate change isn't the main culprit"!
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04:15 PM on 11/21/2011
So, to put your quote marks in context, what page of which IPCC report did that come from, eh?
09:03 PM on 11/21/2011
The story was what I was quoting.

Didn't you read it?

The story is very clear about it.

"Climate change isn't the main culprit"!
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09:11 PM on 11/21/2011
So, you're quoting somebody's "story", rather than directly from the IPCC, eh?

Uh huh...typical rot.
11:11 AM on 11/21/2011
Saying that extreme weather deaths have gone up is in direct contradiction of the acts.

Gone up since when ?

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/11/19/the-odd-omission-in-ipccs-summary-for-policy-makers-for-srex-on-extreme-weather-and-climatic-events/

http://tiny.cc/i5dcz

More importantly, the SPM SREX fails to inform the public and policy makers that, as many readers of this blog probably know, empirical data show that deaths and death rates from extreme weather and climatic extremes have declined over the past few decades
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gallon
Those who fail to remember history are, um
12:03 PM on 11/21/2011
Watts is worthless as a credible reference. Reading stopped right at that point.
08:50 AM on 11/22/2011
I can't hear you la la la la ????????????????
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gallon
Those who fail to remember history are, um
09:28 AM on 11/22/2011
Trolling. I get my science from journals, and it so happens I have contact with real climatologists. Not interested in your junk science, and you cannot follow real science.
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03:40 PM on 11/20/2011
Speaking of the award winning Joanne Nova, she has posted a powerful analysis of the fully discredited IPCC's latest junk science tricks.


"This multipurpose prediction means that in the future, if it’s colder, they’re right; if it’s warmer, they’re right; and they have it covered for more or less storms, floods, droughts, blizzards and frost too."


http://joannenova.com.au/2011/11/ipcc-scientists-test-the-exit-doors/#more-18937
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
chrisd3
Excelsior!
09:54 PM on 11/20/2011
Ork, please list the awards that 'the award winning Joanne Nova' has won.

I'm serious. This is not a rhetorical request. You continually refer to her in this manner. Let's see your list of those awards.

It will be an excellent demonstration of just how seriously your comments should be taken.
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MikeWebster
Always happy.
10:46 PM on 11/20/2011
Most cuddly baby, 1964.
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MikeWebster
Always happy.
10:50 PM on 11/20/2011
Nothing but the usual lies from Jo Nova. In fact, if it is colder in the future, they are wrong. That is because AGW is based on increased average global temperatures. Of course the increase in average global temperatures also increases all sorts of weather extremes.

So if the dangerous manmade global warming continues, the scientists are right. If the trend reverses, and average temperatures go down for long enough, or even stop rising for long enough, then there arguments have errors.

In the meantime, the award winning Joanne Nova has lied about every single facet of the science of climate change. Her awards are presumably for unprincipled deception for the benefit of extremely wealthy commercial interests.
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04:37 AM on 11/20/2011
The popularity of Canadian investigative journalist Donna Laframboise's bombshell expose of the IPCC continues to soar.

From Amazon….

"...shines a hard light on the rotten heart of the IPCC" - Richard Tol, Professor of the Economics of Climate Change and convening lead author of the IPCC

"...you need to read this book. Its implications are far-reaching and the need to begin acting on them is urgent." - Ross McKitrick, Professor of Economics, University of Guelph

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) performs one of the most important jobs in the world. It surveys climate science research and writes a report about what it all means.....

Cited by governments around the world, the Climate Bible is the reason carbon taxes are being introduced, heating bills are rising, and costly new regulations are being enacted. It is why everyone thinks carbon dioxide emissions are dangerous. Put simply: the entire planet is in a tizzy because of a United Nations report.

What most of us don't know is that, rather than being written by a meticulous, upstanding professional in business attire, the Climate Bible is produced by a slapdash, slovenly teenager who has trouble distinguishing right from wrong.

This expose, by an investigative journalist, is the product of two years of research. Its conclusion: almost nothing we've been told about the IPCC is true."

http://www.amazon.com/Delinquent-Teenager-Mistaken-Climate-ebook/dp/B005UEVB8Q/ref=sr_1_4?ie=UTF8&qid=1318551567&sr=8-4
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Katmandu01
07:40 AM on 11/20/2011
Your Donna Framboise has even less scientific credibility than Joanne Nova who you love to trot out but who at least has a BSc. Donna Laframboise is a former journalist and a photographer with a degree in Women's Studies. If she wants to wade into the issue of global warming she needs to go back to school. Most of her work is poorly sourced and hypocritical. but she is also not afraid to try her hand at dishonesty, such as an article entitled 'BP, Greenpeace and the Big Oil Jackpot'. She suggests the oil industry is donating large sums of money to environmental causes, for reasons unkown. In particular she implies Greenpeace recieves large cash donations from BP. An entirely untrue claim because Greenpeace are quite clear that they do not accept funding from governments, corporations or political parties.
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gallon
Those who fail to remember history are, um
08:53 AM on 11/20/2011
Repeat flogging of this hit piece yellow journalism by this poster. She has had as many as 30 of these self promotional posts deleted in the last month here.

Book has a strong anti science agenda, as does this poster. Direct campaigning by Orkney here. Hijacking of this HuffPost forum.

Stick with cooking Orkney.
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Andrew Harvey
Don't F with the Jesus
04:27 AM on 11/20/2011
In other words, nothing of any significance is going to happen.
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gallon
Those who fail to remember history are, um
09:07 AM on 11/20/2011
The article starts out: "Deaths and damages from extreme weather and climate-related disasters are increasing significantly"

Further proof that Harvey and the deniers see exactly what they wish to see, instead of what was actually said.
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Andrew Harvey
Don't F with the Jesus
09:56 PM on 11/20/2011
Read the second sentence. Tell me what it says.
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gallon
Those who fail to remember history are, um
03:06 AM on 11/21/2011
Sure Harvey. The second sentence starts out like this: "The trend of losses is rising and rising rather rapidly, . . . "

Let me know if you need further assistance with reading.
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MikeWebster
Always happy.
11:28 PM on 11/20/2011
My guess is this article is a dishonest misrepresentation of the real findings of the IPCC on severe weather increasing due to AGW.

Why do I think that?

Two reasons:
1. I goes against the statements from just about every scientific body world wide.
2. The actual IPCC report is somewhat readable here:
http://ipcc-wg2.gov/SREX/

and makes it clear that they are talking about a rise in the numbers of, and severity of extreme weather events.
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banana republican
Next in line for crumbs from the King's Table
08:06 AM on 11/19/2011
This article is filled with nothing but sound reasoning and credible arguments. It's diametrically opposed to the liberal narrative. What's it doing here?
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Trepasky
Sanity is neither free nor easy
10:36 PM on 11/19/2011
Apparently ruining your expectations
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MikeWebster
Always happy.
11:29 PM on 11/20/2011
My guess is that it has been inserted by deniers, as a way of further confusing the public. What the IPCC actually says can be found here:
http://ipcc-wg2.gov/SREX/
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04:49 AM on 11/19/2011
There are less than 10 years left until human caused Climate Change becomes irreversible, according to the UN.

"A senior environmental official at the United Nations...says entire nations could be wiped off the face of the earth by rising sea levels if global warming is not reversed.....Coastal flooding and crop failures would create an exodus of "eco-refugees", threatening political chaos...governments have a 10-year window of opportunity to solve the greenhouse effect before it goes beyond human control...."

Link

http://tinyurl.com/6x8r9yc
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
canuckhoser
Don't mind the man behind the curtain
05:43 PM on 11/19/2011
lol riiight.

Because NONE OF THAT has happened in the last decade...

Cept pakistan 20 million refugees
Cept Australia massive flooding
Cept Thailand massive flooding
Cept Texas worst drought ever
Cept Russia on fire...
Just to name a FEW....
And in terms of "solving" the crisis. He could be right. It certainly is heading in that direction...and your failure to prove that it isn't is always telling...
06:13 PM on 11/19/2011
FYI - Orkney's link goes to "no frakking consensus", a website run by Donna Laframboise. Laframboise is a climate skeptic blogger with no relevant scientific credentials or policy expertise whatsoever.

Are you selling books for Laframboise Orkney?

Buyer beware...

"Fox’s “expose” is an e-book by Canadian writer Donna Laframboise, who recruited “a team of citizen auditors” to pore over IPCC reports from the past two decades. Drawing from the book, Fox identifies four IPCC authors since 1994 who were in, or had recently completed, grad school.

Here are the facts Fox characteristically avoided: There were over 450 lead authors for the 2007 assessment report, plus 800 contributing authors and more than 2,500 reviewers. Fox identified only one graduate student who worked on the 2007 report. 1 out of over 1250 authors.

The IPCC does not conduct climate research, it reviews and summarizes scientists’ studies of climate change. The assessment reports have three volumes consisting of 10-20 chapters. Each chapter has around 7-10 lead authors and 2 coordinating lead authors and goes through two rounds of scientific review. Four of the lead authors could have been chimpanzees and it wouldn’t have made a dent in the scientific heft of these massive reports."

http://mediamatters.org/blog/201111030015
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Gottlieb
hated by left since 1973 and right since 1982
01:31 AM on 11/20/2011
F&F for the heads up and the link. In thanks here is another link to nice chart on fox lies.

http://thinkprogress.org/green/2011/11/18/372313/yes-virginia-fox-news-lies-about-climate-change/
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MikeWebster
Always happy.
11:32 PM on 11/20/2011
Lucky I didn't follow the link. It's worse than posting links to the worst pornography that children might see.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Richard2
10:51 PM on 11/18/2011
This report doesn't cite any credible data indicating that the risks of dying from extreme weather has increased. Over the last two centuries the population of the world has increased, but deaths from severe weather events have not kept pace. In today's plugged in world, people are much better informed about weather events than in the past. Take Galveston 100 years ago, versus Galveston this past decade, as a simple example.

So the human toll has been declining, not growing.

Can anyone cite a credible study documenting deaths from severe weather versus population growth, that concludes the human toll has not been reduced over the last 100 years?
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Rob Vann
Hope for the best,Plan for the worst,Take what cms
12:15 PM on 11/19/2011
The article makes a distinction between rich and poor nations and the rising death toll is in poor nations.
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Andrew Harvey
Don't F with the Jesus
04:28 AM on 11/20/2011
Take out the Indian Ocean tsunami and recalculate. Now what does the data look like?
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08:43 PM on 11/18/2011
It seems like there are some intelligent people in the world. Over the next 50 years, most of the buildings in any municipality will either be replaced or renovated. Better building codes, better zoning (which relocates homes and businesses out of flood zones) and adapting existing structures to mitigate the effects of violent weather will help to preserve lives and property.
06:46 PM on 11/18/2011
snicker. nice chemtrails.