Canada Income Inequality: Readers Respond To Report That Income Gap Drives Up Home Prices

Canada Income Inequality Housing Bubble

The Huffington Post Canada   First Posted: 11/22/11 11:58 AM ET Updated: 11/22/11 11:59 AM ET

If the public reaction to The Huffington Post Canada’s report on income inequality and housing prices is anything to go by, Canadians are growing worried about a housing bubble, and about the influence of foreign investors on major real estate markets.

In the first article in its Mind The Gap series, HuffPost reported on the apparent effect that growing income inequality is having on housing prices in Canada. As the country’s wealthy grow richer and middle class wages stagnate, house prices rise, meaning ever-larger debt burdens for working Canadians.

Among commenters, not everyone agreed that income inequality is at the heart of the problem.

“Home ownership in [C]anada is at 70 per cent -- the highest it has ever been,” wrote Guy Smiley Too. “This stat alone seems to debunk the income gap theory.”

The commenter went on to suggest that Canada is in the midst of a housing bubble.

“Canadians are up to their eyeballs in dangerous debt and the banks are complicit. And why wouldn't they be when all the loans they give are insured by the government (read “public”) via the CMHC? Everyone has seen the studies showing how many people could not afford a rise in interest rates. Yes Virginia, there IS subprime lending in Canada. It's your neighbors and friends. … It looks like a classic bubble, it walks like a classic bubble...”

More at Mind The Gap: Why You Should Care About Income Inequality.. What $350,000 Will Buy You In House Markets Across Canada.. 1 In 5 Vancouver Homes Now Sell For More Than $1 Million.. Full Coverage..

Readers zeroed in on Canada’s prolonged period of low interest rates as contributing to the problem.

“The Bank of Canada should have raised interest rates ten years ago and kept them going up steadily,” wrote Peacefrogg. “I've seen homes go up as much as 200 to 500 [per cent] in less [than] two years, this was not done by demand but by greedy speculator­s, developers and realtors.”

Yet others suggested the whole issue makes a mountain out of a mole hill.

“The difference is Canada is not the US, we have a better banking system that keeps watching for bubbles and corrects the problems as they happen,” wrote Grizzly Bear55. “I know misery loves company, but it's not going to happen in Canada.”

“But it is happening here in Canada, albeit at a slower rate,” responded commenter Phreaked.

Others said the focus on Canada’s large markets is skewing perceptions.

“Extrapolat­ing national trends from regional markets is ridiculous­. Vancouver has a number of factors affecting its property market that do not apply in any way to the rest of Canada, yet all the alarmism seems based on that one market, or how it's numbers have affected the national average,” wrote Gender Nonspecific.

Yet others pointed to an aspect of the issue that has been gaining attention of late.

“What the article overlooks is the amount of real estate in Vancouver that is purchased by off shore money especially from China which has greatly inflated housing prices,” wrote BritishColumbian.

A recent report indicates that 20 per cent of Vancouver’s housing stock is being snapped up by foreign investors, with much of the properties bought at the high end of the market. The situation has prompted some local politicians to push for restrictions on foreign ownership of residential property.

Some housing market experts have expressed concerns that Canada’s real estate market could suffer price declines if foreign investors were to withdraw.

Got a housing story to share? Reach us on Facebook, tweet @HuffPostCanada with the hashtag #incomegap or leave a comment below.
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If the public reaction to The Huffington Post Canada’s report on income inequality and housing prices is anything to go by, Canadians are growing worried about a housing bubble, and about the influe...
If the public reaction to The Huffington Post Canada’s report on income inequality and housing prices is anything to go by, Canadians are growing worried about a housing bubble, and about the influe...
 
 
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
gravescanada
07:56 AM on 11/26/2011
The reality is you can only flip a property for profit so many times.
02:12 PM on 11/24/2011
The Canadian housing market is definitely a bubble, not to the scope of the US but worse than the previous housing bubbles Canada had in the early 80's and early 90's that wiped about 15% off the national average each time.

We have to remember that there were dozens of countries that were involved in the global housing bubble. A doubling of house prices while wages stayed just above inflation was a common theme. Bidding wars, explosive household debt, the "undervalued"or "catch up" "it's different this time" themes were also common

http://saskatoonhousingbubble.blogspot.com/2011/11/global-view-of-housing-bubble.html

Here is what we are looking at in relation to Canada's housing bubble
The average house price in Canada has appreciated by 126% from 1996-2010,
mortgage credit appreciated by 180% from 1996-2010,
the average weekly wage appreciated by 39% from 1996-2010,
and inflation came in under 30% from 1996-2010.
http://saskatoonhousingbubble.blogspot.com/2011/10/canadian-housing-bubble-annual-growth.html
12:03 AM on 11/23/2011
A couple of comments.
First the long run consequences of a government "low interest policy".
Low interest rates punish savers and conservative investors while encouraging speculative risky "investment" (read gambling!) Housing/real estate has become an investment rather than a roof over your head, because there are no interest bearing investments that pay anything close to inflation... thanks to the egghead experts trying to stimulate consumption.

Second point. That housing has become ridiculously expensive can be traced back to another policy created by government geniuses decades ago. That was the "high ratio mortgage" deal in which you could get into a house for 5 percent down instead of the original 25 percent down that the banks used to require. The government guaranteed the difference. The idea was to create more happy homeowners.
The Result: As more marginal buyers entered the market the price of housing skyrocketed!!! Surprise Surprise!!! In a very short time it again became difficult at best for the young marrieds to get a house of their own. The law of unintended consequences at work.

And we're still living with it.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Mr e MaN
Political Atheist
11:55 PM on 11/22/2011
It is a fantastically huge bubble average prices of homes are twice that of the States. We are all on the hook too as the banks have smartly offloaded their liabilties to CMHC (you and me). we will pay the price.
12:04 AM on 11/23/2011
Further investigation of Vancouver real estate prices is needed.
Many million dollar homes [like mine] in Vancouver were either appreciated to that level or paid full in foreign cash.
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bordway
If you need more than 7 rounds, use a knife.
12:32 PM on 11/27/2011
Spot on. Banks took on no risk from 2007-09, while CMHC (the Canadian taxpayer) accrued somewhere in the neighborhood of $600 billion to guarantee. In there were the inventive mortgage terms to keep the economy ticking like 0 down and 40 years. It's interesting to watch housing prices continue their climb with deflating wages on the backs of a population of 34 million. It's not going to be pretty when interest rates go up 2%.
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CarlyQ
Without followers, evil cannot spread.
08:47 PM on 11/22/2011
Canadians have been talking about a housing bubble for, well, years now.

Housing prices dipped a tiny bit at the beginning of the recession but then continued escalating as usual. We have now far, far surpassed the income to mortgage ratio that the USA did before their housing market crashed. And yet homes still go up.

If there isn't going to be a bubble, then I guess houses are a guaranteed way to make loads of money forever.

How rational is that, though?
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Blodo
Time to build a better world
11:28 PM on 11/23/2011
It's not rational. The average level of debt being carried per person is staggering, especially considering that some of us (ahem) don't owe a farthing to anyone. Much of that debt is in the form of mortgages for enormous, new houses.
http://www.cga-canada.org/en-ca/ResearchAndAdvocacy/AreasofInterest/DebtandConsumption/Pages/ca_debt_default.aspx
06:29 PM on 11/22/2011
Regarding housing purchases by investors whose only intention is to rent and hold as an investment, keep in mind that this type of investment is virtually the only source of new rental inventory. No developer is building major new rental buildings. Why should they when rent controls push the return on investment into the distant future if at all. If it were not for these investors buying new build condos and offering them for rent, renters would face a seriously tight rental market
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04:02 PM on 11/22/2011
Threshold statistic such as "Percentage of Vancouver homes sold about $1 million" are highly deceptive, in that a small change in house prices can generate a large change in the statistic.

When I see such statistics I become suspicious of both the conclusions and the writer's motivation.
03:42 PM on 11/22/2011
Look, it's somewhat obvious there's a housing bubble, especially if you look at it long-term.

What keeps house prices high? People wanting new houses. If 70% of the population already owns a place, you're relying on them to trade up, but they need someone to come and take THEIR houses, first. You've got a dwindling supply of new buyers--Canada's population isn't that big and isn't growing that fast--and the people already in houses are certainly going to need REAL income growth (as opposed to the decade-long stagnation of wages in this country).

Long-term fundamentals simply can't support these house prices, and over the last 100 years, home prices have trended to the same values if you account for inflation.

The situation in the US was actually WAY more favourable than it is here: they can use mortgage payments as a tax deduction, and once they lock in an interest rate, it's locked in for the life of the mortgage. Meanwhile, Canadians are buying with no money down or close to it and they re-negotiate their mortgages every 5 years, desperately hoping to avoid catastrophe. And considering a significant (40% or so, last I heard?) proportion of the population says they'd be in trouble if they even missed ONE paycheque...man, what other conditions do you NEED for a bubble, anyway?
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03:39 PM on 11/22/2011
You can buy a 2 bedroom trailer on Vancouver Island for less than 50 grand.
There are ways for retirees to live cheaply.
All you have to do is some research.
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CarlyQ
Without followers, evil cannot spread.
07:16 PM on 11/22/2011
Trailer homes are not a good place to sink any money into - pad rentals rival the cost of rent, poor insulation, high maintenance and consistent devaluation.
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02:46 PM on 11/23/2011
Pad rentals are usually under $350.00 per month. Hardly comparable to rent. Trailers are low maintenance. There is no foundation to decay and there is easy access to fixing anything should it be required. You don't need double windows as the temperature is hardly ever below freezing on Vancouver Island. As far as devaluation goes it isn't a big inverstment in the first place so if you lost 10% over 10 years that would only amount to 5 grand.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Pat Dussault
02:35 PM on 11/22/2011
Sorry, this was an article about the comments section of another article? Kudos, HuffPo, on a standard of journalism second to none.
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06:09 PM on 11/22/2011
i know! and we're commenting on the comment-based story.

perhaps the higgs particle isn't supposed to be discovered but created (by HP).
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Rob Vann
Hope for the best,Plan for the worst,Take what cms
01:40 PM on 11/22/2011
I know a number of Americans who were seriously affected by the housing crash. They clam to not have any idea they were in a bubble until it burst. I gather from the article most Canadians do indeed see the bubble yet they continue to buy in despite their better instincts.
02:17 PM on 11/22/2011
They still want to buy and are guessing that the crash won't be as precipitous, but I suspect it will be bad enough to have serious effects since the European economy is also tanking.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
gravescanada
07:56 AM on 11/26/2011
Right up to the American Housing Crash, the Real Estate Associations were saying that the market was solid. Just as they are saying here in Canada.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Rob Vann
Hope for the best,Plan for the worst,Take what cms
08:23 AM on 11/26/2011
Does that remind you of the financial crisis when the rating agencies had triple A ratings on the big investment banks right up to the edge? The public is being gamed by the system.
01:29 PM on 11/22/2011
Yes Virginia Canada has a housing bubble. It just hasn't burst yet.

In the USA the banks created derivatives, Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs) into which they transferred the mortgages and sold these derivatives, taking a profit on the transaction and consequently having the money available to lend again.

Worse, they created the credit default swap - technically a sort of insurance but actually nothing more than a bet - and bet on the mortgage they no longer had an interest in. If the mortgage defaults, the the banks get paid again and the owners of the CDOs get to eat the loss, or maybe foreclose.

Finally, they created Mortgage Electronic Registration System, and recorded the transactions electronically rather than bothering to do things legally and record the transactions with local land titles offices. Since they had this electronic record, they apparently thought it was OK to disappear the original mortgage documents, effectively obscuring title to the house.

Default? No problem, a little forgery and fraud and the ex-homeowner is on the street and somebody gets the proceeds from the sale. What are the odds that that somebody isn't the owner of the CDO?

The upshot was very easy credit. Easy credit drove up demand, which drove up prices, which drove up borrowing - and all was well for the banks, who after all are the only people in the country whose welfare matters.

Did any of this scam make its way into Canada? In what form? Look at housing prices.