Bank Of Canada's Mark Carney Warns Of Great Depression-Like Crisis

Mark Carney Great Depression

First Posted: 12/12/11 01:06 PM ET Updated: 12/15/11 11:34 AM ET

TORONTO - Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney says the advanced economies of the world are facing a massive challenge with debt, but Canada may be in a position to take advantage.

In a speech to a business group in Toronto, the central banker warned Monday that a historic era of deleveraging — paying off debt — is being forced upon European countries and the U.S.

The task is so large that Carney compares it to what occurred during the Great Depression of the 1930s, and is by no means assured to go smoothly.

"As a result of deleveraging, the global economy risks entering a prolonged period of deficient demand," Carney said in notes of the speech released in Ottawa.

"If mishandled, it could lead to debt deflation and disorderly defaults, potentially triggering large transfers of wealth and social unrest."

Carney said that Canada's relative virtue throughout this era of deleveraging puts the country in a "privileged position."

"We have much lower total government debt in Canada, our firms' balance sheets are actually in very good shape, our banking system is very strong," he told reporters.

"Our strong position gives us a window of opportunity to make the adjustments needed to continue to prosper in a deleveraging world. But opportunities are only valuable if seized."

Carney said Canadian companies in particular must seize the moment, before it disappears.

Businesses can benefit from one of the world's soundest banking systems in Canada, super-low interest rates and their own sound balance sheets flush with cash. As well, firms in the resource sector can place a safe bet that commodity prices will remain elevated.

That creates an idea situation to invest to boost productivity and make inroads in the fast-growing emerging nations, Carney said.

"This would be good for Canadian companies and good for Canada," he said. "Indeed, it is the only sustainable option available. A virtuous circle of increased investment and increased productivity would increase the debt-carrying capacity of all, through higher wages, greater profits and higher government revenues."

In Europe, the government debt crisis has led countries with huge deficits to cut pensions, thousands of public sector jobs and to raise taxes in an austerity drive to balance the books and secure new bailout financing.

In this economic squeeze, European banks face big losses and have tightened their lending, while companies are scaling back investments — raising fears of a looming recession.

In comments to reporters after the speech, Carney said he believes Europe is already in a recession.

The same trends are not as pronounced yet in the United States, but things are also trending negatively in the world's biggest economy.

The U.S., for instance, faces a situation where the combined debt of individuals, government and non-financial corporations has reached 250 per cent of the country's gross domestic product, or about US$120,000 per individual.

That's about where it was in the midst of the Great Depression nearly 80 years ago.

Carney did not give a corresponding figure for Canada due to variations in the scale of public sector assets, but noted that the fiscal position of Canadian governments is best in the G7 group of big industrial nations, and that of corporations is at a record low.

He noted that while household debt in Canada is higher than that in the U.S. — at about 150 per cent debt-to-income ratio — Canada is still much better off overall than the U.S.

The federal government and provinces such as Ontario and Quebec are likely facing a few years of austerity as they try to balance the books in a slow-growth era.

Governments, Carney said, should resist basking in the glory that they have the strongest finances in the G7 and continue to bring down deficits, because the climate for restoring budgets to balance is harsher than it was in the 1990s.

Then, Canada's labour markets were expanding due to demographic changes, the Canadian dollar was low and the world was entering a cycle of strong growth.

"Today, our demographics have turned, our productivity growth has slowed and the world is undergoing a competitive deleveraging," he noted.

Carney saved the biggest red flag for Canadian households, which have been on an extended spending splurge, particularly on homes.

Excessive borrowing has lifted household debt-to-income levels to a record high. They are now more indebted than households in the U.S. and Britain, he said.

He said households need to reduce their dependence on borrowing for purchases before consumers get in over their heads.

However, he added that his warnings, along with changes to the mortgage lending rules earlier this year, have helped to slow the pace of household debt accumulation.

"Me droning on in public about the dangers of household debt is a way of reminding households that: don't assume that current levels and the current situation will be there forever," he said.

Carney said that as households retrench, a more productive corporate sectors need to step to as a driver of the economy to replace consumers' "debt-fuelled spending."

— With files from Julian Beltrame

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TORONTO - Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney says the advanced economies of the world are facing a massive challenge with debt, but Canada may be in a position to take advantage.In a speech to a busi...
TORONTO - Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney says the advanced economies of the world are facing a massive challenge with debt, but Canada may be in a position to take advantage.In a speech to a busi...
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10:36 AM on 12/14/2011
Governments world wide have 2 choices default on debt or remove trillions of dollars from the economy through spending cuts, either one will have the same effect, a prolonged economic down turn. There are no easy solutions or strategies, Mr Carney's analysis is that we will be the last one on the Titanic.

Plan and simple we have spent our future citizens future.

The future will be a return to regionalized economies, unfortunately not all regions are economically self sustaining, this will be an interesting period in human history.
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Whistlejackett
Hey stop doing that
07:21 PM on 12/13/2011
Stop thinking that products are good for you, because they are not. Today's products are garbage, all of them. Simply get what you need for basics and only buy what you need. If you buy a phone, don't get sucked into thinking you need another one.
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skbull44
Check out Olduvai the novel
11:55 AM on 12/13/2011
Carney is a Goldman Sachs product schooled in a version of economics that relies on exponential growth in debt. Ragoff and Reinhart, in an excellent summary of the past 800 years of financial crises (see ‘This Time is Different’), demonstrate that time and time again, massive de-leveraging through default is how systems respond to over-leveraging by borrowers.
In fact, the central banks’ attempts to smooth the ‘natural’ volatility of a complex system may be leading us towards an even greater period of reckoning (see Taleb and Byth’s ‘The Black Swan of Cairo’).
Even if, a big if, the financial system and sovereigns gets themselves in order, once ‘growth’ begins to resume experience tells us that oil will begin another climb in costs. Oil costs place a constraint on growth and many recent oil price spikes have lead to growth contraction
Exponential growth is impossible, both physically and mathematically, although economists ignore this reality. They should, however, realise the growing constraint put on their growth assumptions by ever-increasing oil prices and the increasing realisation that cheap fossil fuels can no longer be counted upon to help jumpstart growth. Peak Oil has put an end to their cherished economic models that depend upon ever-increasing growth.
The planet appears to have finally run into the wall of ‘Limits to Growth’ as Meadows et al. described so well in their 1972 book…maybe it’s time our economists read up on some of the constraints that show their beloved paradigm is disintegrating.
11:27 AM on 12/13/2011
Does anyone else find it unsettling that Mark Carney makes the same basic mistake of adding public debt and private debt together to paint the picture of 'overall debt' considering he's heading the Bank of Canada? Federal debt is debt in one's own currency, and its basic economic fact that a government never has the inability to pay debt in its own currency since it has sovereign control over the currency. That is very different debt than household debt. It's comparing apples to oranges.
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gravescanada
11:11 AM on 12/13/2011
OTTAWA - Statistics Canada says Canadian households are continuing to pile on debt at record levels.

Average debt compared to disposable income climbed to an all-time high of 153 per cent in the third quarter, almost three points higher than the previous quarter.

Credit market debt — another measure of household finances — also hit a record at 150.8 per cent, two points higher than in the previous period.

As well, the agency says household net worth declined by 2.1 per cent to $180,100 from $184,700 due to the declining value of equity investments and pension assets.

During the third quarter, the Toronto Stock Market index fell 12 per cent, Statistics Canada notes.

One of the few pieces of good news in the report was that national worth, which includes firms, increased by one per cent to $6.5 trillion.
realitybaby
Livin in realitybaby!
09:41 AM on 12/13/2011
well gee ya dont have to b a rocket engineer or even an accountant to figa that one out! Yup we are ALL in a boat load of I dont know whats gonna happen!
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opprobrious
More speech. Less Flagging.
03:19 AM on 12/13/2011
If memory serve, those who made money from the crash of '29 were the ones who shorted the market. So shouln't we "short" the world?
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Vapula
Failure is not an option
11:55 PM on 12/12/2011
The world is in a depression and has been for several months. People need to face facts however unpleasant before anything meaningful gets done.
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CanadaStan
Cogito ergo spud, I think, therefore I yam
11:33 PM on 12/12/2011
Buy ammo.
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renegade28
11:43 PM on 12/12/2011
It's only a matter of time..
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JPalka
11:57 PM on 12/12/2011
So you can sell it to people that have guns? :)
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CanadaStan
Cogito ergo spud, I think, therefore I yam
01:29 AM on 12/13/2011
Buy guns as well, if you haven't already...
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uneeda
Make Peace in Our Time
10:41 PM on 12/12/2011
what the guv is really saying is that we will be the last to go down
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dan can
09:08 AM on 12/13/2011
exactly! it is just taking longer to hit us.
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MyTake
Release the Hydrogen Economy now!
10:27 PM on 12/12/2011
--"Our strong position gives us a window of opportunity to make the adjustments needed to continue to prosper in a deleveraging world. But opportunities are only valuable if seized."--

Gee, Mr. Carney, your 10 tenure at Goldman Sacks trained you well on PREDATORY financial principles.

Yeah, let's CAPITALIZE on the unfortunate and those in a vulnerable position.

And what was that recent headline on 2011 Bank profits -- oh, yeah, BIG BANKS made 22.4 Billion in profits.

Let's see, Banks made BIG profits while "excessive borrowing has lifted household debt-to-income levels to a record high. They are now more indebted than households in the U.S. and Britain".

I wonder if the Banks are PREDATORY on the AVERAGE Canadian household! The householder is placed in huge debt and the Banks run up huge profits!

Harpo see's Goldman Sachs in this guy's resume and hires him on the spot.

Had I been PM, this guy would have been arrested for having been a member of the World's Largest Crime Syndicate that nearly COLLAPSED the Global Economy in 2008 through their unregulated derivative scam.
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haselcheck
Had enuff...Get active....
08:59 PM on 12/12/2011
I owe over $2.5 Million ...but it's not my problem....I own my creditors now...haha....When I walk away...I've de-leveraged....they can blame McGuinty and Harper...
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piceaglauca
The picture says it all....
08:33 PM on 12/12/2011
Oh great swamy, will I have enough money to retire. I am still working and I'm 92?
07:21 PM on 12/12/2011
One factor that's rarely mentioned when Mr. Carney, and others discuss high debt/ income ratios is that Canadians have personal balance sheets, which include another measure of how onerous one's debts are ! That is the debt/ net assets figure. In some cases a family might have a debt/ income ratio of 150 % while having a debt / net assets figure of say 5 -10% . In that case , a high debt level is much less dangerous, as it may be well covered by other financial or real estate assets.
Admittedly, there are many Canadians who are not in this fortunate circumstance, and , for them high debt levels are a real problem.
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Aesops
Appearances often are deceiving
07:59 PM on 12/12/2011
Yeah, but that's the problem with asset deflation, it doesn't look like a problem until it is. This is the problem with loan to value ratios; the loan is not a separate factor from the value of the home since it is funding the original purchase and driving up the home prices in the beginning. When the home asset value falls during a global induced asset price collapse, the debt does not decrease. That 5-10% figure can change very quickly, and I doubt that it is actually that low if households in BC are paying 10%+ of annual income in interest servicing.
11:15 PM on 12/13/2011
I agree
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kenl77
04:55 PM on 12/12/2011
"Businesses can benefit from one of the world's soundest banking systems in Canada, super-low interest rates and their own sound balance sheets flush with cash. As well, firms in the resource sector can place a safe bet that commodity prices will remain elevated.

That creates an idea[l] situation to invest to boost productivity and make inroads in the fast-growing emerging nations, Carney said. . . . A virtuous circle of increased investment and increased productivity would increase the debt-carrying capacity of all, through higher wages, greater profits and higher government revenues."

Yes, Canadian businesses are flush with cash, even as both provincial and federal business tax rates are already at the lowest levels in the First World and are continuing to fall. By business tax give aways, governments forgo hundreds of billions in revenue while racking up deficits and punishing the poor and middle class.

There is no virtuous circle because the poor and middle class cannot afford to buy, so there is no need for business to invest the cash sitting in corporate coffers.

And why can't people afford to buy?

Partly because the criminal rape of "homeowners" by American financial institutions spreading poison throughout the world and partly because North American jobs have been offshored, leaving a shrinking middle class.

In short, because of rapacious, unrestrained Capitalism, the very system being counted on to pull us out of this mess.
07:09 PM on 12/12/2011
Quote : "In short, because of rapacious, unrestrain­ed Capitalism­, the very system being counted on to pull us out of this mess"
I have sympathy for US homeowners who suffered actual fraud , in many cases, with no recourse. That's despicable, However, the collusion between the US government and large US financial services companies is not capitalism. Capitalism would have meant that the financial companies involved would have simply gone bankrupt , because of their own greed. That the companies were saved with taxpayer money is a real crime, and can only be described as Crony capitalism, a very different beast.
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kenl77
08:54 PM on 12/12/2011
"However, the collusion between the US government and large US financial services companies is not capitalism­. Capitalism would have meant that the financial companies involved would have simply gone bankrupt , because of their own greed."

I agree with you to a certain extent, but the name of the world's current economic system is irrelevant. Call it what you will.

It is an abomination and will lead to the nation's destruction.