Canada Inflation Steady At 2.9% In November, Driven By Food And Gas Prices

Grocery Store

First Posted: 12/20/11 07:11 AM ET Updated: 12/20/11 01:15 PM ET

OTTAWA - Canada's annual inflation rate remained stubbornly high at 2.9 per cent last month as Canadians continued to pay considerably more for food and gasoline than they had 12 months earlier.

Statistics Canada said Tuesday that grocery prices were up 5.7 per cent in November compared with a year ago as consumers saw double-digit increases for such basics as fresh vegetables and bread. The figures included a 1.3 per cent jump from October alone.

Overall food prices, including restaurant meals, were 4.8 per cent higher than a year earlier, the biggest such increase since July 2009, the federal agency said.

Meanwhile, gasoline also continued to be a key driver of annual inflation, rising 13.5 per cent in November from 12 months earlier.

However, gasoline price inflation is on a downward track after peaking in May at close to 30 per cent. On a month-to-month basis, Canadians actually paid 2.3 per cent less for gas in November than they did in October.

The continuing high cost of gasoline helped push the transportation component up 5.7 per cent, although that was less than the 6.7 per cent gain recorded in October.

Overall, Statistics Canada said prices rose in all eight major components it tracks and in every province in Canada, with the highest rate — 4.1 per cent — recorded in Newfoundland and Labrador.

The dollar firmed slightly on the report when it was released at 7 a.m. EST, then climbed on better news out of Europe.

"I think inflation may have more staying power than many expect," said Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist with BMO Capital Markets.

"We have seen core inflation move higher across the industrialized world this year even with relatively disappointing growth. It's due to things like clothing prices ... food prices, and we saw some upward pressure in car prices as well."

Still, the Bank of Canada has repeatedly stressed that it is not worried about inflation even though it has remained above the bank's two per cent target for more than a year.

The bank's core inflation index, which tracks underlying price pressures by excluding volatile items such as energy and some foods, was also north of target at 2.1 per cent in November.

In its most recent report on the state of the economy, the central bank said it expects overall inflation to decline to one per cent by mid-2012 as gasoline prices continue to decline. There's little in November's report that will likely to detract from that sentiment.

Analysts are not convinced inflation will fall so sharply or so quickly. Many said they expected the trough to be somewhere between 1.5 and two per cent next summer, well north of the Bank of Canada call.

"In order for the bank's view to come to fruition, we need much, much softer global growth ... (and) a more significant commodity shock," said Derek Holt, vice-president of economics for Scotiabank.

Porter pointed out that with a month of data remaining, it looks like inflation in Canada will average about three per cent this year. That's the highest rate over a full year in two decades, he said.

Economists generally agree with the Bank of Canada that inflation will continue to moderate over the next few months as a result of lower demand for commodities, including oil, and the continuing excess capacity in the economy, which will make it difficult for businesses to demand higher prices. The difference is in the extent of the fall.

Aside from food and energy, most price increases in November were tame. Shelter costs rose 1.5 per cent, although fuel oil, which is related to the energy component, was still 24.4 per cent higher than 12 months ago. Consumers also paid 4.4 per cent more for car insurance and 3.3 per cent more for new model cars, although that was down from the four per cent price hike seen last November and a five per cent increase in 2009 during the month.

However, home mortgage and interest costs fell 1.1 per cent, natural gas declined 2.7 per cent, video equipment dropped 12.4 per cent, women's clothing slimmed by 2.1 per cent and furniture cost 2.1 per cent less.

On a month-to-month basis, inflation was a tepid 0.1 per cent in November from October, the agency said.

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OTTAWA - Canada's annual inflation rate remained stubbornly high at 2.9 per cent last month as Canadians continued to pay considerably more for food and gasoline than they had 12 months earlier.Statis...
OTTAWA - Canada's annual inflation rate remained stubbornly high at 2.9 per cent last month as Canadians continued to pay considerably more for food and gasoline than they had 12 months earlier.Statis...
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09:12 PM on 12/21/2011
If we look the business industry small busienss owners are facing financial cries due to decrease the revenue with significant drop of profit margin.. It is tough time for small business however if the government provide some assistance probably they can survive. The popular business website such as http://www.bizworldusa.com/ http://www.bizworldcanada.com/ http://www.mblsworld.com/ http://www.blsalliance.com/ http://www.blsworld.com/ http://www.mblsalliance.com/ and http://www.justdialworld.com/ etc written a lot of tips on how to increase the sale, cost cut down expense etc hope that will give some way to grocery business as green.
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Mike Keohane
11:42 PM on 12/20/2011
Price of groceries is probably up about 25% but relatively it's still a good deal. If I can afford to spend hundreds of dollars a month on crap like cell phones and cable TV then surely I can't whine about the price of food. A lot of our food is grown and processed in Canada, so if Candian farmers are getting better prices thats OK with me too.
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mravka
The world has gone completely mad.
09:30 PM on 12/20/2011
It's time to nationalize our oil production and share the wealth, just like Norway did decades ago.
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mravka
The world has gone completely mad.
09:21 PM on 12/20/2011
Oh Canada, breadbasket of the world with the second largest oil reserves on earth and still prices are outrageous.
02:49 PM on 12/20/2011
When you consider the price of food it is important to remember that a few years ago some "genius' in his "greenieness" convinced people that it was a good idea to convert food crops to produce ethenol. This in turn has caused shortages in production that was once used in part as donations to feed the starving third world and/or as an inexpeniive feed source for farm animals. Not only has this product been taken out of the food source system,causing prices to rise on everything from cereals to meats, we (taxpayers) actually subsidize the production of ethenol which is used to partially replace oil , a produce we have plenty of from natural sources.
I know somewhere someone is making millions out of this idiocy ---- all i would say to him is i hope he can't sleep at night.
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01:47 PM on 12/20/2011
The fast is that my grocerie bill has increased over 30% since last year. It doesn't mater how I calculate it the numbers stay the same. 20kg bag of flour at Costco's was $10.69 now is $13.69 and everything else is up just as much. Tin of MJB coffee was $6.89 now $11.69 whats up with that?
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CarlyQ
Without followers, evil cannot spread.
12:44 PM on 12/20/2011
My observations: my average three re-usable bags of groceries cost $60 before the recession (2007).

2009: it jumped to $75
2010: it jumped to $90
2011: it jumped to $150

Wages? They've been stagnant since 1990.

I've had to take a step back, look at the bigger picture and realize that it's NOT going to get better and that I'm far from being the only person in this position (which is, oddly, reassuring). What the game plan is now, at my age, I have no idea, but the old assumption that one should get a higher education to get a better job that pays well can be pretty much discounted as the myth that it is. Been there, done that, didn't work out as planned.

For me, I realize it will be hand-to-mouth until I take my last breath but that is something I have come to accept. For the upcoming generations, however, I worry. I worry because of the nagging suspicion that the hardships they will have to bear will far eclipse those of my generation.
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mravka
The world has gone completely mad.
09:26 PM on 12/20/2011
Wages have been stagnant for far longer than that.

True story; before I was born (1971), my mom worked as a teller at the Bank of Montreal and made $10/hour. Fast forward 35 years, she was working at a call-centre for the Montreal Symphony Orchestra making $8.50/hour, yet prices have easily quadrupled.

If ever there was time for a massive revolt, it's right now.
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CarlyQ
Without followers, evil cannot spread.
02:21 AM on 12/21/2011
That's sickening.

Don't worry about the revolt - it's coming. It always does.
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12:04 PM on 12/20/2011
Inflation in a stagnant economy... We are in a period of stagflation.

I believe that it is due to the price of fuel driving all the prices higher, coupled with the fact we have sent most manufacturing jobs overseas. That has the effect of driving up prices due to shipping costs and also not allowing the government to raise interest rates because the high unemployment rates and personal debt would drive the economy into an even deeper hole.
edgermanJ
my imagination hasn't created any gods
10:58 AM on 12/20/2011
It's not the gasoline prices, it's the diesel prices. Gasoline brings the consumer to the store but it's diesel that brings the food. The fuel that hauls our goods to the customers is now more expensive, per litre, than the fuel that hauls the customers to the goods and because almost everything we buy now travels on roads instead of rails, the cost per kilogram has gone up.
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gravescanada
08:07 AM on 12/20/2011
Our economy is not good. Lets stop kidding ourselves. Yes we are selling lots of commodities, but in general the job market is lousy.
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Tony frm Banff
Search for truth,not spin
10:25 AM on 12/20/2011
Lots of service sector jobs in Alberta.
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gravescanada
10:39 AM on 12/20/2011
Yeah, but service sector jobs are low paying. Possible if your single or a couple, but to move a family of four or more for those wages, would be prohibitively expensive.
Just one example
Customer service representative - financial services
Cash Canada Financial Inc
Permanent, full time. Wages: $11.00 per hour, Calgary North East, Alberta

http://alberta.jobs-open.ca/ab-jo05.php
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Mike Keohane
11:46 PM on 12/20/2011
For anyone whose looking, There's lots of jobs in the NWT. Food costs a bit more here though.