IMF On Canada: Household Debt, Overvalued Housing Pose Risks

Imf

First Posted: 12/22/11 02:49 PM ET Updated: 12/22/11 03:40 PM ET

OTTAWA - The International Monetary Fund says Canada's economy is slowing and faces risks both at home and abroad.

The IMF says Canada not only faces headwinds from the global economy, but also challenges from record-high household debt and an overheated housing market.

The Washington-based monitor of the global economy says Canada's house prices are about 10 per cent above fundamentals, and more so in some areas.

A 15 per cent correction in prices could cut 1.5 per cent from private consumption, the IMF says, damaging the economy.

For the nation as a whole, the IMF says Canada's economy likely grew by 2.2 per cent this year and will expand a further 1.9 per cent next year.

That is close to the Bank of Canada's projections for growth.

IMF: NO COUNTRY IN WORLD IMMUNE TO EUROZONE CRISIS

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OTTAWA - The International Monetary Fund says Canada's economy is slowing and faces risks both at home and abroad.The IMF says Canada not only faces headwinds from the global economy, but also challen...
OTTAWA - The International Monetary Fund says Canada's economy is slowing and faces risks both at home and abroad.The IMF says Canada not only faces headwinds from the global economy, but also challen...
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whoshooter
"..judge me by the enemies I have made."-FDR
11:04 AM on 12/23/2011
Housing prices are set by what the market bears. In other words the IMF and the USA can go pound sand. The reason our houses are worth more, is because we actually have superior infrastructure and Canada is GREAT place to live. People with money want to live here, and our communities and houses are not run-down crime-ridden rat holes.

As long as there are buyers who want quality homes in quality neighborhoods, Canadian real estate will hold it's value. As far as personal debt goes, the IMFs data sources are bias and inept. Our unemployment rates is going to get even better in the near future too. We actually have regulations in place (with teeth) that don't even allow for the bulk of our citizens taking on stupid and bad debt. Banks in Canada have ALWAYS been fairly tight with extending credit.

We'll be just fine thank you very much.
03:13 PM on 12/26/2011
I don't agree. The average personal consumer debt to asset ratio is 150%, that is called being VERY overleveraged. There has not been a correction in the housing market also, for over 14 years. The Canadian market is overdue one very soon. Any economist or business person with common sense will tell you that the market readjusts itself every few years, continued rising prices are not sustainable, as income is not keeping up with the rising prices. When they correct themseleves even by a bit, the overleveraged homeowners are going to be seriously underwater, and the your bubble as well as Vancouver and Toronto's bubble, will pop. Alberta just like Texas will fare better, as well other provinces, but mark my words, Van and TO will suffer, greatly.
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gwinegarden
She's an Arctic Wolf
09:57 AM on 12/23/2011
Housing prices are like stock prices, there is nothing that the individual can do about it, ecept, perhaps, not buy, but it would take a lot of us to make any impact.
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Warren Yuill
Jesus Built My Hot-Rod
06:06 AM on 12/23/2011
Worst fake'n bake tan ever.
Toronto and Vancouver should probably pay attention to this.
The rest of us "out here in the sticks" are probably ok.
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MyTake
Release the Hydrogen Economy now!
09:12 PM on 12/22/2011
IMF should share its "House of Bilderberg" supplied Global Financial Modelling software with Carney and the Big Banks so they could step in and dry up funds going to "Main Street" in Canada just as they are doing on Wall Street.

Why are the dishing up mortgages that are putting people under such financial stress in the first place?

Why is the Government not taxing the banks for issuing "financial stress" mortgages and put the Banks in their place.

Why did these Conservatives appoint an ex-Goldman Sacks (the largest crime syndicate operating in the World today) executive as the Bank of Canada Governor?

And this women came from the ranks of "The House of Bilderberg" and its interlock with The Pratt House in NY who scripted the 2008 collapse and now the Euro crisis in the hopes of gaining a single Global currency to be administered by the merging of BIS, IMF and The World Bank.
08:20 PM on 12/22/2011
Canada isn't immune to the worlds economy . It's going to catch up with us. And the spending spree our government is on is not going to help . Are not Conservatives supposed to Conserve - less government . Whats up - Prisons , military spending , more Mp's etc etc . We should be concentrating on jobs and the economy .
08:10 AM on 12/23/2011
"We should be concentrating on jobs and the economy."

Agreed, But that's not what the Alliance/Reform party governing Canada, is interested in.
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Aesops
Appearances often are deceiving
07:41 PM on 12/22/2011
Canadians carry more than 1.5 times debt to income. We have housing prices that since the early part of the last decade have gone parabolic. I have no love for the IMF, but what they are saying is accurate, they are just too late as usual. Beware the narrative fallacy where you tell yourself a story about why things won't change. History is made at the curves in the road, and Canada cannot mathematically keep adding debt to their balance sheet without adding earnings. As we become more overlevered, we risk the cycle reversing and substantial losses far beyond 15%. Get defensive and liquid now, because corrections from parabolic moves are not soft.
08:15 PM on 12/22/2011
The debt to income ratio does not consider how much of this is long term mortgage debt versus
short term high interest credit card debt. I agree that as a society we are mortgaging our children's future to some degree but the article was about real estate prices which are very high in areas of very strong demand and low in other places. The very high is being averaged across an entire country by the IMF economists which masks the true situation. (My in-laws house just sold in Fredericton for $210,000.) The same home in Toronto would be about $1 million. As well, the banks are tighter than ever on mortgage qualifications. This saved us from a mortgage melt down two years ago and they have gotten even tougher since then. The short term credit card and auto debt is the biggest problem, not real estate.
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Aesops
Appearances often are deceiving
08:38 PM on 12/22/2011
I see what you are saying about the averaging of prices and I agree, it is not a countrywide problem. It really does focus on a few centers and the surrounding regions. The one issue I would note though is that while our lending standards are higher, we are also publicly backing these mortgages through CMHC. So the banks are incentived to create mortgages and turn them into CDO's for the taxpayer to bear the risk. In these few city regions there is a lot of concentrated debt (of all kinds as you mentioned) and all it will take is a few to accept a lower home sale price to start a trend of deleveraging. There are a good number of homes with less than 20% equity, so a relatively small correction can wipe people out today along with a portion of the CMHC nominal assets of $580 bln.
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06:58 PM on 12/22/2011
They're just jealous we survived the recession so well.
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gwinegarden
She's an Arctic Wolf
09:59 AM on 12/23/2011
Let's not get too smug, we could be in for a big fall.
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piceaglauca
The picture says it all....
06:41 PM on 12/22/2011
Who really cares Christine Legarde? Your words of wisdom fall short of our concerns here. Deal with your European problems where most of this started except (sauf) the US and their sub prime mortgage default thanks to the deregulation of American banks. You people rally wow us as you try to sort thought your issues. Cut a few of those losing countries out of the EU. It isn't very long before many of the countries of Europe will be on their own. As long as you keep spending money and not having the resources to replace it you will contniue to mire in debt. We are doing fine since our monetary process is in place. As for people that over spend, who cares. They reap what they sew.
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Ian Llangan
Your Invisible Sky Friend Is Morally Abhorrent
06:03 PM on 12/22/2011
All the griping here does not undo the fact that Canadians ARE carrying too much consumer debt, the housing market in large urban centres IS cooling off and the global economy on which we depend for exports IS tanking. Whine about the IMF all you like, they are giving sensible warnings that ought to be heeded. Shooting the messenger is a popular pastime but it doesn't change the validity of the message.
05:26 PM on 12/22/2011
Take a hike IMF. Go clean-up the mess you have created around the world in devastating the third world and making their people poorer.

Yeah Canada has its problems too but, the IMF is the last people we should be listening to.
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gwinegarden
She's an Arctic Wolf
10:02 AM on 12/23/2011
Some people feel superior just because others are worse off then they are. Many of them get a big shock in life.
05:01 PM on 12/22/2011
It is irresponsible for the IMF to provide this kind of forecast. The analysis is done by economists who are working with no real insight into the Canadian real estate market. Their working with economic models that are purely theoretical. The two cities that have the highest housing prices in Canada are Toronto and Vancouver. The strength of these markets is from new immigrants and foreign investors. You can still get a nice home or condo for $1 million dollars in these cities whereas in London, Paris, Rome, New York etc., you'll get 1000 sq ft in a not so great building.
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Aesops
Appearances often are deceiving
07:45 PM on 12/22/2011
That is one metric - how about adding home price to average income, debt to equity and industrial base comparison and see how we compare. We hang by a thread now economically and we could hang here for a long time, but that doesn't mean we're safe.
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dread
04:15 PM on 12/22/2011
Harper has been traveling all over the world telling everyone what a great job that him and his trained seal ( Flaherty) have been doing, maybe he should stay home and keep us out of the US's wars.
04:06 PM on 12/22/2011
If economists new what they were talking about there would only be one economist and he would have all the answers.
the IMF says Canada's economy likely grew by 2.2 per cent this year and will expand a further 1.9 per cent next year.
Sure hang your hat on that "likely".