Canada, U.S. GDP: For First Time On Record, Canadians May Be Wealthier Than Americans

The Huffington Post Canada   First Posted: 12/24/2011 9:58 am Updated: 12/24/2011 10:49 am

This year, for the first time on record, Canadians may have exceeded their American neighbours in wealth.

According to estimates from the IMF, flagged by Kevin Carmichael at the Globe and Mail, Canada’s gross domestic product per person is on track to be $51,147 per person in Canada, compared to $48,147 in the United States.

It’s a reflection of the persistent weakness of the U.S. economy since the financial crisis began in 2008, and the relative strength of Canada’s economy, which has benefited from high commodity prices and surging demand in developing countries.

And according to available data, it may be the first time in history that Canadians have been richer than their brethren south of the border.

Historical data shows the U.S.’s per capita GDP in 1900 was $4,096 in constant U.S. dollars, while Canada’s was $2,758. In 1950, the U.S. was at $9,753, while Canada was at $7,047. By 1973, the U.S. led Canada $16,607 to $13,644.

Canada’s relative strength is a surprise to many economists, who have been warning that the country's lagging productivity gains would hurt its economic growth in the long term.

Data from Statistics Canada shows that, even as Canada’s GDP growth has exceeded the U.S.’s by five per cent over the past 14 years, its productivity per worker has shrunk more than 15 per cent relative to U.S. workers.

So how can Canadians be getting richer when their productivity has fallen so far behind the U.S.?

As the Wall Street Journal recently reported, economists may have overstated the importance of productivity growth -- particularly for a commodities exporter like Canada. The Journal cites a report from Statistics Canada suggesting Canadians may not have to be as productive as Americans in order to enjoy a higher standard of living -- simply because we’re getting more money for the things we sell.

“When nations trade, there are other routes that can raise living standards,” Statscan’s Ryan Macdonald writes. “Trading nations can transform their stock of assets (knowledge, capital, resources) into the goods and services they want to consume by exchanging them with other nations. If the terms at which one nation can trade with another improve, then that nation can transform its exports into a greater flow of imported goods and services, thereby increasing its living standards.”

In other words, because the price of oil and other commodities has gone up, we’re able to buy more for what we produce -- essentially overcoming our lagging productivity.


5 ECONOMIC LANDMINES THAT COULD DERAIL CANADA IN 2012

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  • 1. RISING HOUSEHOLD DEBT

    Canada's household debt burden climbed to yet another record high in the third-quarter, prompting Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney to call it <a href="http://www.montrealgazette.com/business/Mark+Carney+again+sounds+alarm+rising+Canadian+household+debt/5856418/story.html" target="_hplink">"the greatest risk to the domestic economy</a>." At 150.8, <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/14/us-economy-debt-idUSTRE7BC2DY20111214" target="_hplink">Canada's debt-to-income ratio is now higher than in the U.S. or the U.K</a>. Meanwhile, household net worth fell, which, as many observers have warned, has made Canadians more vulnerable to adverse economic shocks.

  • 2. SLUGGISH CONSUMER DEMAND

    Though BMO's Doug Porter maintains that low interest rates and modest job growth should prevent household debt issue from becoming "a clear and present danger to the outlook in the year ahead," he predicts that the debt burden is likely to increase. Unlike in the U.S., Canada's consumer recession was "very mild," leaving scant room for growth in consumer spending, he says. "At best, we see consumer spending growing in line with income next year," he said. "We've actually pegged it a little bit below income growth next year ... at less than two per cent in 2012." (FREDERIC J. BROWN/AFP/Getty Images)

  • 3. EUROZONE INSTABILITY

    When TD cut its 2012 outlook for the Canadian economy earlier this week to 1.7 per cent, the bank cited a deepening fiscal crisis in the eurozone as one of the primary factors. More bearish than BMO, which on Thursday held its expectation for Canada's GDP growth next year at two per cent, TD is forecasting "a deterioration of financial conditions and a significant European recession in the first half of next year." "<a href="http://www.td.com/document/PDF/economics/qef/qefdec11_can.pdf" target="_hplink">A deepening recession in the region will exert a significant drag on the global economy</a>," the bank maintained. "Canada will be negatively impacted through weaker commodity prices, confidence and export growth. Labour markets will also soften as a result." (ERIC FEFERBERG/AFP/Getty Images)

  • 4. CHINA LOSING STEAM

    The signs are abundant that the world's largest economy is cooling. Mounting local government debt and slowdowns in everything from industrial production to <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2011/12/09/china-economy-slows.html" target="_hplink">the housing market has led many to predict softer economic growth in 2012</a>. "<a href="http://www.npr.org/2011/12/13/143623874/after-boom-chinas-property-market-heads-lower" target="_hplink">Real estate is a locomotive industry that leads at least 58 other industries</a>," Cai Weimin, who runs a real estate think tank in Shanghai, told NPR. "Doomsday probably won't come true in 2012, but for the Chinese economy, 2012 will be a very tough year. (Aaron tam/AFP/Getty Images)

  • 5. GROWING INCOME GAP

    As Canada's rich-poor divide widens, some experts warn that the concentration of wealth at the top of the income distribution and stagnating wages for everyone else could be a drag on the economy. Though Canada's income gap is not as pronounced as in the U.S., Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives economist Armine Yalnizyan argues that the growing divide is bad for business all the same. <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/news/mind-the-gap" target="_hplink"><strong>Mind The Gap: Our examination of Canada's growing income divide</strong></a> "<a href="http://www.canadianbusiness.com/article/39123--inequality-is-bad-for-business" target="_hplink">Real growth in purchasing power has been restricted to a small fraction of Canadian consumers</a> in what is already a small market," she maintained in an op-ed in Canadian Business magazine. "Throttling aggregate demand slows the economy for everyone." Anne Golden, president and CEO of the Conference Board of Canada, echoes this sentiment. "Growing inequality distorts consumer patterns," she told The Huffington Post in a recent interview. "Most businesses, except maybe for Porsche [dealerships], rely on rising purchasing power of the many, not the few, to deliver growth and profits." (ADRIAN DENNIS/AFP/Getty Images)

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10:45 AM on 02/09/2012
SOURCE; WIKI: with references showing ultimate sources: per capita Canada as stated in ariticle, Australia 2012 $69,000-00.........go check.
03:00 PM on 12/25/2011
Having money does not make one rich. Money Can't Buy You Love.....like the Beatles said.
KenInd
We too shall get through this.....
12:08 PM on 12/25/2011
Congratulations, my Canadiam friends! It could not happen to nicer people.

Once you factor in the savings provided by your national health system, I am sure the net difference is even greater.

Too bad about your winter climate though. Why don't you buy Florida (it is on sale) and make it a southern province, so that every Canadian can spend a week or two here every winter? We will gladly learn to say 'Eh' and will try ice hockey and curling to make you feel at home.
12:49 PM on 12/25/2011
Lol...thanx! Our health system is great! And know that there are areas in Canada that do not get harsh winters...Vancouver in B.C. is where flower bloom outdoors ALL winter long; the Okanagan Valley cities in the interior of British Columbia is a lot like Florida in the summer--take Kelowna, where it's said to have 2 suns in the summer--tourists flock there from all over then! It also has mild winters--great for skiing! You'd be surprised at the many places to live in Canada that are not extreme in temperature. And oh, btw, only the older generations use 'eh' anymore. ;-)
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Tony frm Banff
Search for truth,not spin
08:25 AM on 12/25/2011
One of those 5 economic landmines wil happen soon enough, and do we have an economy strong enough to withstand any one or combined economic landmines. Our housing bubble is about to burst!
KenInd
We too shall get through this.....
12:12 PM on 12/25/2011
If you really feel that way, sell now and rent (even rent back your own home) and await the fall. Then buy back in.

I did just that. I sold my winter home in FL for $180,000 in 2006; placed the money into bonds and money market; rented it from the people to whom I sold it; I just bought it back for $39,000.
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jamster88
08:18 AM on 12/25/2011
It is misleading. Purchasing power is low meaning stuff is expensive still. Our GDP per cap is only high cause of pressure on our dollar driving it up ... It's a safe haven also commodity investments. Value of our dollar is really a function of these things... In terms of true comparison of economies it's not useful. Canucks ate still materially poorer ... But we have good public safety, low corruption etc can't put a price on that.
KenInd
We too shall get through this.....
12:13 PM on 12/25/2011
Do you have room for one more, please???
08:00 AM on 12/25/2011
We can be most rich than Americans, but Canada's government have to spend money for public services !
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David Rozgonyi
Writer and traveler
07:56 AM on 12/25/2011
Any of those five factors "threatening" the Canadian economy also threatens the US economy, but in much larger proportions, so this gap will only grow. But I for one welcome my new overlords from the great white north. :)
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Maxirules
10:55 PM on 12/27/2011
We will be more magnanimous than the Chinese and lot more politer... :).
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spinnerator
07:18 AM on 12/25/2011
Is it just a coincidence that this article was posted a few days after the IMF reported that out economy was artificially inflated and we were going to crash and burn like every other country?

Feel good propaganda or was the IMF report sour grapes. Guess only time will tell. Throw the bums in the IMF out.
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Husaria
Question all authority
07:07 AM on 12/25/2011
Central banks and the bankers that run / operate them

Cradle to grave debt for all! And to all a good night! Ho ho ho!
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Tony frm Banff
Search for truth,not spin
05:10 AM on 12/25/2011
This is poppycock. we are no better off today than we were in 2007. The price of groceries have sky rocketed. The price of fuel is up, same with hydro and our national debt has sky rocketed.
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08:01 AM on 12/25/2011
Sure, but the article is still technically accurate. The consequences of this change is nothing because of the factors you describe.
08:02 AM on 12/25/2011
You have reason, but, they are rich and they spend nothing.
Chironomid
To read is human; to comprehend divine
08:13 PM on 12/24/2011
Okay, everyone... time to chant "USA! USA! USA!".... That'll fix it.
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logicanada
Blogger, radio co-host, writer, editor, voice-over
08:07 PM on 12/24/2011
An economist is someone who will tell you tomorrow why the policy he recommended yesterday didn't work today.
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Husaria
Question all authority
07:09 AM on 12/25/2011
and gladly have you pay for a hamburger today which they will re-pay you on Tuesday.

Wimpy was a genius.
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Blodo
Time to build a better world
04:53 PM on 12/24/2011
I hate it when graphs are mislabeled. That one ought to be "US and Canada Per Capita GDP,1900-2011"
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David Rozgonyi
Writer and traveler
07:57 AM on 12/25/2011
I hate it when numbers get divided at the end of a sentence. :)
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Leader Newworldparty
04:33 PM on 12/24/2011
Canadians are wealthy because of its housing bubble, like the way Americans were in 2007.

http://www.newworldparty.org/2011/11/housing-after-bubble-bursts.html

"When real estate was booming in the U.S., Spain, Ireland and Japan, their economies were booming. People in the U.S. were living in big, expensive homes, driving multiple cars and installing new swimming pools and kitchens. Similarly, the economies in Spain and Ireland were flying high. People were living the good life and "partying like it's 1999".

However, bubbles are temporary and create temporary fake wealth."
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grizzly bear55
King of the forest
05:36 PM on 12/24/2011
Nonsense.

More Canadians have their homes fully paid at a younger age than Americans even with a country with very high taxation and higher cost of living.

Most Canadians have retirement funds and savings at higher level than Americans.

The Chart is correct.
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Leader Newworldparty
06:04 PM on 12/24/2011
Look at the chart from TD Securities at:

http://www.newworldparty.org/2011/11/bubbles-extreme-maker-and-breaker-of.html

"Americans' household debt to income ratio peaked at approx. 124% in 2007-2008, coinciding with the peak of their housing bubble and fake economy. After the bubble burst, they have deleveraged down to approximately 105%.

Canadians' household debt to income ratio continued soaring to 150% in February 2011 (according to CBC)"

http://www.newworldparty.org/2011/11/housing-after-bubble-bursts.html

"According to "The Economist magazine, House of horrors, part 2:

"home prices are overvalued by about 25% or more in ... Canada, ... more overvalued than it was in America at the peak of its bubble.""
KenInd
We too shall get through this.....
12:15 PM on 12/25/2011
You are less exposed because borrowing on housing has tighter controls. Same goes for Australia.
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Leader Newworldparty
07:57 PM on 12/26/2011
See:

http://www.newworldparty.org/2011/11/housing-after-bubble-bursts.html

"Many Canadians believe that when this housing bubble bursts, they will have a soft landing, unlike the American's. They say that the outcome for Canada will not end in a disaster like it did for the U.S. economy, because Canada did not have AAA rated CDOs (Collateralized Debt Obligations), NINJA loans, etc.

True, Canada did not have these, but neither did Spain, Ireland or Japan. Nevertheless, Spain and Ireland are now worse off than the U.S. Here is a comparison: ..."
04:13 PM on 12/24/2011
Yes we are!
In birchbark and bannock.
Difficult to joy upon our neighbours demise.
When we are but a flea on their backs
As they go....so do we also...Alas!
KenInd
We too shall get through this.....
12:16 PM on 12/25/2011
Nonsense. You folk think. We don't - we react. So think - and stop reacting to this article!