Bob Rae: Interim Liberal Leader Has Led Party To Gains In Ontario In Quebec Ahead Of Convention

Bob Rae Liberal Convention 2012 Ottawa

The Huffington Post Canada   First Posted: 01/13/12 09:40 AM ET Updated: 01/13/12 09:40 AM ET

As Liberals from across the country gather in Ottawa today for the start of their biennial convention, one question on almost everyone’s lips is whether Bob Rae will eventually turn his interim position as leader into a permanent one.

Few Liberals deny that Rae has done a good job or that, if he chooses to run in the leadership race scheduled to come to a conclusion in early 2013, he would be a good candidate to lead the party into the next election. That he is the best person for the job, however, is far from a consensus opinion.

But more than eight months after the Liberals were handed a drubbing in the last federal election, Bob Rae has undoubtedly kept the Liberal Party’s head above water. Eight months down, 46 more to go.

In those eight months, the experienced Liberal leader has taken advantage of the weakness of the NDP’s front bench. Some of its best MPs are currently occupied by the race to replace the Jack Layton, and by most accounts Nycole Turmel has not done a terrific job as leader of the Official Opposition. However, the New Democrats have not surrendered second place to the Liberals in the polls.

Nevertheless, Rae’s leadership has helped the Liberals make some gains in the first eight months after the May 2 debacle, hitting 22 per cent in national support in December. Though they have a long way to go before they can start challenging the New Democrats as the main alternative to the Conservatives, Rae has put the party on the right track.

However, under his watch the Liberals have not been able to make important gains in every part of the country. The West still remains a dead zone for the party. In fact, in the four western provinces the New Democrats are increasingly challenging the Tories, leaving the Liberals closer to the Greens than they are to the NDP.

Rae has also been unable to increase Liberal support in Atlantic Canada, one of the few regions of the country that, for the most part, stuck with the Liberal MPs they had before the vote on May 2.

But despite these problems, Rae has increased the party’s support in Ontario and Quebec, the two provinces that were crucial in building Jean Chrétien’s majorities. Despite his history as premier of Ontario, Rae has moved the Liberals ahead of the NDP in the province, after the party had fallen narrowly behind in May. They have even been ahead of the Conservatives in a few individual surveys.

And in Quebec, where the New Democrats have dropped 10 points since the election, the Liberals are making gains. Though they are still well below where they polled before the last vote, the Liberals are on the upswing and on pace to regain some of the seats they lost to the NDP in Montreal. The defection of Lise St-Denis, an NDP MP from a francophone riding outside of the metropolis, is also a positive sign for the Liberals in Quebec.

After the disastrous results of the last federal election, the Liberals could have easily slipped deeper into obscurity and surrendered their position permanently to the New Democrats. Though Bob Rae may not be the face of renewal that the Liberals need, he has undoubtedly had success in keeping his party afloat.

Éric Grenier taps The Pulse of federal and regional politics for Huffington Post Canada readers on most Tuesdays and Fridays. Grenier is the author of ThreeHundredEight.com, covering Canadian politics, polls, and electoral projections.

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  • Recent Federal Floor Crossers

    <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2012/01/10/lise-st-denis-ndp-join-liberals_n_1196406.html?ref=canada-politics">Lise St-Denis' defection from the NDP to the Liberals</a> has put crossing the floor back in the news. Here's a list of other recent federal floor crossers.

  • Lise St-Denis

    The newly elected NDP MP jumped ship to the Liberals just 5 months after the federal election of 2011. St-Denis faced harsh criticism from those who saw the move as disregarding the will of her constituents. Many argued that voters in St-Denis' Quebec riding had voted for Jack Layton and not for her.

  • Belinda Stronach

    In 2005, Belinda Stronach, Conservative MP and daughter of billionaire Frank Stronach, crossed the floor and joined Paul Martin's Liberal Party. She was named Minister of Human Resources and Skills Development and Minister responsible for Democratic Renewal.

  • David Emerson

    In 2006, Liberal MP David Emerson joined the Conservatives just two weeks after being elected. He was named Minister of International Trade and Minister for the Pacific Gateway and the Vancouver-Whistler Olympics.

  • Wajid Khan

    In 2007, Wajid Khan jumped from the Liberals to the Conservatives after then-Liberal leader Stéphane Dion stated that Khan would not be permitted to continue in his role as an advisor to Stephen Harper.

  • Carolyn Parrish

    Carolyn Parish was suspended from the Liberal caucus in 2004 after stomping on a George Bush doll for a "This Hour Has 22 Minutes" sketch. The outspoken MP subsequently decided to sit as an independent.

  • Keith Martin

    In 2004, Canadian Alliance MP Keith Martin renounced his party to sit as an independent and announced he would seek to run as a Liberal in the next election. His move was a response to the merger between the Canadian Alliance and the Progressive Conservatives. He would go on to win the Liberal nomination in his riding and the election and sat in the Liberal caucus until his retirement in 2011.

  • Bob Rae

    While Bob Rae isn't technically a floor crosser (he didn't switch parties while sitting as an MP) the interim Liberal leader did switch parties. Rae governed Ontario has the province's NDP premier from 1990-1995. In 1996 he resigned as leader of the Ontario NDP and in 1998 resigned from the party altogether. He returned to politics in 2006, joining the Liberal Party and running for its leadership. He was defeated in his leadership bid by Stéphane Dion, but won the federal riding of Toronto Centre in 2007.

  • Ujjal Dosanjh

    Ujjal Dosanjh shares a similar story to Bob Rae. He served as NDP premier of B.C. from 2000-2001, but later joined the federal Liberals. He served as an Liberal MP from 2004 until his defeat in the most recent federal election.

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As Liberals from across the country gather in Ottawa today for the start of their biennial convention, one question on almost everyone’s lips is whether Bob Rae will eventually turn his interim posi...
As Liberals from across the country gather in Ottawa today for the start of their biennial convention, one question on almost everyone’s lips is whether Bob Rae will eventually turn his interim posi...
 
 
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Miller Time
01:25 AM on 01/14/2012
On another site read tat there are signs of revolt at the Liberal Convention.

The agenda that Rae and his back room boys have cooked up is not going down too well.

Lots of blame being placed regarding the picking of Ignatieff without the members getting to choose.

Dissent on bringing in "star candidates".

Dissent over Liberal Primaries throughout the country.

Dissent over allowing non-Liberals to vote on the choice of a new leader.

All is not happy in Liberal Land!
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TonyOnly
Truth matters.
08:46 PM on 01/13/2012
During the last election campaign, both the Conservatives and the NDP fought the 2nd place Liberals and pretty much ignored eachother. Why? Because they both considered the Liberals to be the party they had to beat to get where they wanted to go. And even though publicly, they're both now singing a Liberal funeral dirge, privately, they both still fear the Liberals more than they fear eachother.

The Liberals are still the only truly centrist party in Canada. And that's the area of the political spectrum where most Canadians reside. The Conservatives are farther right and the NDP farther left. That's the reason the Liberals have governed our country for so many years. Not because the Liberal brand has some sort of magic. But because their political beliefs more closely match the beliefs of most Canadians.

Can the Liberals come back? Polls indicate not only do most Canadians expect it, they want it. So I wouldn't bet against it.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
cameron d
Good Guys Win
08:06 PM on 01/13/2012
The fact of the matter is that the Liberal Party is benefiting from the death of the great Jack Layton.
05:23 PM on 01/13/2012
As a Conservative, I read hope the Liberals don't elect Bob Rae as leader.

The last thing the Conservatives want is a authentic, down-to-earth, personable, liberal leader.
06:09 PM on 01/13/2012
authentic personable ,down to earth , are anathema to conservatives look at their own leader
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Miller Time
04:49 PM on 01/13/2012
On a closer inspection of the article I gather the following:

The Liberals have not gained in either Atlantic Canada or the West. They have only gained very slightly in support in both Quebec and Ontario, but not enough to even gain second place.

And this is a "victory" for Mr. Rae.

Heaven help the Liberals if he ever suffers a "defeat".
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Miller Time
04:33 PM on 01/13/2012
If Bob Rae does run for permanent Leader, he will be doing a typical "Liberal" thing.

When he accepted the position of Interim Leader, it was based entirely on his NOT running as permanent Leader. But who ever expects a Liberal of acting with dignity and honour.

I left the Liberal Party when they completely trashed their own Constitution to allow Jean Chretien to have his long farewell. Under that Constitution, they were bound to hold a Leadership Convention after he resigned. They didn't.

And a word of caution to the young 20-year-old who is running for a position on the Policy Committee. One Mr. Maharaj was on that Committee. He held the same position I did on Chretien's long goodbye. For his troubles, he was dumped from the Committee.

When I wrote to Mr. Steven LeDrew, the then President of the Party, about my concerns, I was told in a very brusk way to F*** off. He was the President and he could do what he liked.
06:12 PM on 01/13/2012
so you joined the conservatives --the union of the reform party and the mulroney rump -----the formation of which was based a lie , a big deceit and a betrayal ------dont be too sanctiomonious you new found heros are not lily white
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Miller Time
06:48 PM on 01/13/2012
Yes! I joined the CONSERVATIVE PARTY OF CANADA.

And am very proud and happy to have done so.

I really don't care whether it is a combination of Alliance or Reform or Progressive Conservatives. It is the best Party in Canada.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Miller Time
06:49 PM on 01/13/2012
And talking of lies.

Is Bob Rae lying when he hopes to run for the Leadership? After all he has a signed agreement. Same as McKay had.
01:35 PM on 01/13/2012
Rae flushed Ontario down the toilet in only 1 term. made a have province into a have not
province. So now you want this loser to lead the Liberal Party? Acually that would be
a good move from my point of view as I am a Harper fan. Rae as the leader would be another
nail in the Liberal coffin.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
ProgressiveCDN
A Progressive Moderate
01:18 PM on 01/13/2012
Bob Rae is doing well, but if this guy becomes the leader of my party I will be incredibly frustrated... I want someone who can motivate me to go to my friends (all 20-somethings) and make a case for support... another old establishment guy with old establishment baggage in Ontario is NOT what our party needs!
11:10 AM on 01/13/2012
charisma and centrism --are good for canada
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
ProgressiveCDN
A Progressive Moderate
01:20 PM on 01/13/2012
centrism - check
charisma - fail.

Where is the outcry for Trudeau! C'mon people, he's not going to choose to run himself! We need to push him to do it!! He's the only one who can speak to my generation in a charismatic and intelligent way
01:32 PM on 01/13/2012
he said not yet ---family is first
11:08 AM on 01/13/2012
There is no rush we must find real fresh leadership not same old same old. And we must change the so call convention and have a one person one vote. That will make new and fresh blood to our leadership and show real change Obama like change.
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
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05:44 PM on 01/15/2012
What is Obama like change?
02:16 PM on 01/16/2012
Liban CZ do not ask me questions and write this “I do not play games back and forward...­.” after I answered your question!!
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
giantsteps
10:42 AM on 01/13/2012
Rae talks a good game but his actions speak volumes about how conniving and power hungry this man truly is.
He will stab anyone in the back to get what and where he wants in his life.
11:11 AM on 01/13/2012
prove it
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Johnny LaRue
political correctness is just incorrect
05:03 PM on 01/13/2012
The man didn't honor civil servant contracts in Ontario(Rae Days). Why would he honor anything else. When he took the interm leadership it was understood the interm leader would not run for party leadership. However if he runs then he shows true Liberal quality of being a liar which will give him a huge advantage. Promise the world ..Deliver nothing of value.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
djelimon17
what's this thing for?
11:11 AM on 01/13/2012
@giantsteps - most pols are a bit like that, but Rae I am convinced has some core convictions I can relate to.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Johnny LaRue
political correctness is just incorrect
05:03 PM on 01/13/2012
Name 1?