Canada Budget 2012: Moody's, Fitch Ratings Question Need For Ottawa's Austerity Agenda

Jim Flaherty

The Huffington Post Canada   First Posted: 02/14/2012 2:50 pm Updated: 02/14/2012 2:52 pm

The federal government doesn’t need to ramp up spending cuts, and implementing them could harm Canada’s economy as it struggles with weak global demand, two major ratings agencies have said.

Steven Hess, the lead Canada analyst for Moody’s, told the Wall Street Journal that there is a “risk to growth” if the government moves too quickly with austerity measures designed to return the country to balanced budgets.

With a budget deficit that amounts to about two per cent of GDP, there is “no rush” for Canada to address the problem, Hess said.

Though Ottawa has been systematically finding efficiencies in government departments since 2007, lower tax rates and the global economic crisis have forced the government into deficit spending in recent years.

Ahead of this year’s budget, expected to be tabled before the end of March, the Prime Minister’s Office has asked government departments to find 10 per cent in spending reductions.

The government has also floated the notion of reforming the Canada Pension Plan and Old Age Security, ideas that were met with political resistance before the Finance Minister Jim Flaherty softened his stance somewhat.

According to a study from the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives, the budget cuts will cost 60,000 to 68,000 public service jobs by 2015-2016, when Ottawa aims to have brought the budget back into the black. The CCPA estimates the cuts could raise unemployment by half a percentage point, to more than 8 per cent at the current level.

"You don't have to swallow an extremely bitter pill if you are not sick," Fitch Ratings analyst Shelly Shetty told the Journal. She suggested any acceleration of spending cuts to beat the 2016 deadline was “not required.”

The Harper government hasn’t been inflexible on its budget goals, and Flaherty has on occasion signalled he is willing to put cuts on the back burner if the economy takes a turn for the worse.

Opponents of the government’s austerity measures point to the extreme example of Greece as an indicator that cutting too quickly and deeply can damage an economy.

Greece’s statistical authority reported this week that its economy is shrinking at a 7 per cent rate, with economists laying the blame squarely at the feet of deep spending reductions as Greece struggles with an overwhelming debt load.

The shrinking economy has sent Greece into a vicious circle, where budget cuts cause reductions in government revenue, making it even more difficult for the country to pay its debts.

Though Canada’s budget shortfall isn’t comparable to Greece’s opponents of austerity argue the southern European country’s situation is proof budget deficits should be fought during times of economic strength.

The ratings agency analysts cited by the Journal nonetheless gave Canada’s government high marks for focusing on an issue they say speaks directly to Canada’s credibility on the global economic stage.

"Achieving fiscal consolidation and the balanced budget targets are important to maintain credibility," Shetty told the Journal.

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  • Big Canada Pension Plan Changes Coming In 2012

    Ottawa is bringing in a raft of new or tweaked policies to reflect that retirement these days is more of a gradual transition for many people rather than a single event. Many of these changes either begin in 2012 or are entering the next phase-in period, and they'll have a direct impact on the retirement plans of Canadians. In some cases, the changes are big enough that people nearing retirement may want to have a chat with a financial adviser before deciding exactly when to apply for a CPP retirement pension. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images) <em>With files from CBC</em>

  • 1. Early CPP, Lower Benefits

    The first change involves payment rates. People can choose to take a CPP retirement pension as early as age 60. But there's a catch: A 0.5 per cent reduction in the pension payout for each month before age 65 that someone begins receiving it. That translates into a retirement benefit that's 30 per cent less at age 60 that it would be if you waited until 65. Starting in 2012, Ottawa is beginning to phase in a bigger reduction to get that early access. For 2012, the penalty rises to 0.52 per cent per month -- or a 31.2 per cent reduction for someone who starts receiving their retirement pension at age 60. The early-bird reduction will continue to rise until 2016, when it hits 0.6 per cent per month, or a maximum 36 per cent reduction for those who start receiving CPP payments at age 60 rather than waiting until they reach 65. (Getty)

  • 2. Later CPP, Bigger Benefits

    Similarly, those who wait until after the age of 65 to start collection CPP will get a bigger increase in their retirement benefit. Before 2011, the rules stated that the CPP retirement benefit was boosted by 0.5 per cent for each month after age 65 that an individual put off receiving it. So someone who waited until age 70 would enjoy a 30 per cent boost in their payments. But starting in 2011, the government began to phase in a gradual increase to that delay bonus. For 2012, the increase for each month after 65 that a person delays applying for CPP goes to 0.64 per cent -- or a maximum increase of 38.4 per cent for those who start receiving a pension at age 70. By 2013, the maximum bonus moves to 42 per cent. These changes won't affect people who are already receiving CPP benefits. They are being made, according to Service Canada, to restore these adjustments to "actuarially fair levels," so there are "no unfair advantages or disadvantages to early or late take-up of CPP retirement benefits." (Getty)

  • 3. Drop-Out Years Increase

    Canadians currently don't need to contribute to the CPP every year from age 18 to age 65 to get a full CPP retirement pension. When someone's average earnings over their contributory period are calculated, 15 per cent of their lowest earning years are automatically ignored when the calculation is made. For someone who takes their CPP retirement pension at age 65, that means seven years of low or zero earnings are dropped from the equation. But starting in 2012, that "general drop-out provision," as it's called, goes up to 16 per cent. For someone eligible for CPP benefits in 2012, that will allow up to 7.5 years of the lowest earnings to be excluded from the calculations -- boosting the retirement benefit paid. In 2014, the percentage will rise again to 17 per cent, which will allow up to eight years of low earnings to be dropped. These changes can really benefit people who entered the workforce late, who were unemployed for a long time, or took time off to go back to school. One point to note is that there are separate drop-out provisions specifically for time spent out of the workforce because of disability or to have children. (Alamy)

  • 4. 'Work Cessation Test' Dropped

    CPP rules used to require that someone stop or drastically reduce the amount they earned during the two consecutive months before they began to receive a CPP retirement pension. This was, for many Canadians, an annoying and costly requirement -- especially since so many people now ease into retirement instead of stopping work completely. Now, that rule is history. Beginning in 2012, the "work cessation test" has been eliminated. (<a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/misteraitch/" target="_hplink">Flickr: misteraitch</a>)

  • 5. Post-Retirement Benefits

    There's another rule change that's important for semi-retirees to be aware of. Before 2012, if someone started receiving a CPP retirement pension early -- say, at age 62 -- they didn't have to make any CPP contributions if they decided to collect payments but also keep working after age 62. Starting this year, if you are under age 65 and continue to work while also drawing a retirement pension, you and your employer must make CPP contributions. The good news for employees is that these extra contributions will be credited to what's called a Post-Retirement Benefit (PRB), which will result in a higher CPP retirement pension in the year after you make contributions to your PRB. This measure is a nod to the reality that many "retired" Canadians are still working. Canadians who continue working after age 65 and are receiving a retirement benefit will have the choice of whether or not they want to make CPP contributions. If they choose to make them, their employer must kick in their share too. Those additional contributions will go towards higher benefits beginning the year after the PRB contributions. (<a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/elwillo/" target="_hplink">Flickr: Keith Williamson</a>)

  • 6. Premiums And Benefits Rise

    CPP benefits are always adjusted to reflect the rising cost of living. For 2012, the increase in benefits is 2.8 per cent. That will bring the maximum monthly CPP retirement pension to $986.67. Contribution rates are unchanged. But since the yearly earnings maximum that the rate applies to is going up, the maximum annual contribution will rise by about $89 in 2012 to $2,306.70 for both employees and employers. (<a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/redvers/" target="_hplink">Flickr:R/DV/RS</a>)

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The federal government doesn’t need to ramp up spending cuts, and implementing them could harm Canada’s economy as it struggles with weak global demand, two major ratings agencies have said. St...
The federal government doesn’t need to ramp up spending cuts, and implementing them could harm Canada’s economy as it struggles with weak global demand, two major ratings agencies have said. St...
 
 
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grizzly bear55
King of the forest
05:31 AM on 02/16/2012
The US credit agencies better stay away from CANADA, we have a stable economy and a stable banking system, compared to the south of the border.

These same agencies rated useless papers as investment grade to trick unsuspecting investors, then washed their hands of the whole thing once the US credit market collapsed.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
kenl77
10:05 AM on 02/15/2012
". . . lower tax rates and the global economic crisis have forced the government into deficit spending in recent years . . ."

Deep spending cuts are required because the Capitalist Government of Canada is not finished the task of lowering taxes on corporations and the rich. Federal rates have recently fallen to 15%. PM Harper intends that they be cut to 10%, then 5%, and eventually zero.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
gravescanada
09:21 AM on 02/15/2012
http://mercatus.orgsitesdefaultfilespublicationCanada%27s%20Reversed%20Budget.Henderson.5.5.11.pdf
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northof49th
11:05 PM on 02/14/2012
Why can't we just not increase spending and leave the programs alone. Oh right corporate tax cuts, Jets,prisons, online spying programs,loop hole for Monsanto. Big Oil,MP's pensions, More MP's, New Crime Bill,John Bairds Religious freedom ministry budget,Jim Flarherty's new budget shoes.Sorry
08:40 PM on 02/14/2012
All those years of minority government and the undercurrent of the "hidden agenda", have turned out to be true. Mr. Charisma was given his majority and will spend the next four years implementing his neo-con ideology. The absurdity of cutting social spending while building unneeded prisons has not escaped this observor.
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gravescanada
09:13 AM on 02/15/2012
Dont forget tax cuts for Corporations and Billions in give aways to big oil.
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Don McLeod
08:08 PM on 02/14/2012
The cuts are really about gutting safety nets that keep Christ from gaining purchase in a liberal and secular Canada. Misery is good for Christians. Harper is a Christian. Tax funded safety nets are not good for Christians. They are a socialist plot that empty the Pentecostal Churches.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
haddanuff
Progressives think 'We' while cons think "Me"
07:41 PM on 02/14/2012
FlaherTEA has a poster of Milton Friedman on the ceiling above his bed.
06:50 PM on 02/14/2012
Quote " : " European country’s situation is proof budget deficits should be fought during times of economic strength.
This is typical Keynesian economic policy, the problem is that government's never follow the prescription , and actually tackle government deficits in times of economic strength. Instead they tend to create deficit's that last decades, aided by monetary policies by central banks, that stand by in boom times , do nothing , then print money endlessly , in an effort to avoid the inevitable "bust".
At some point you either apply austerity, or eventually the market will force it on you. This is a lesson the US government has yet to learn. Canada should proceed with cutbacks, as planned, and ignore the ratings agencies.
Remember these ratings agencies (Moody's ,Finch, S&P's ) are the same agencies that declared junk mortgaged backed securities as Triple A investments, and caused horrendous losses across the world. They have no credibilty whatsoever !!
07:05 PM on 02/14/2012
They have no more credibility than the Harper regime.
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Bec DeCorbeau
Le langage de l'invisible est le silence
08:26 PM on 02/14/2012
It's ok to do certain types of cutbacks. It's the spending that is problematic with the reformists! Harper is asking canadians to tight there belt while his throwing that saved money in the face of corporations and disowning Canada word on top of it!

How much stupidity it's takes to be obscene!
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
JackHoffman
Pundit
06:48 PM on 02/14/2012
Flaherty is doing to the country what he did to Ontario. Hillbilly economics.
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SiameseTrainer
...we are Sia..mese if you don't please..
06:24 PM on 02/14/2012
I wonder which left wing and competence based perjoratives Flaherty will loudly apply to Moody's, for daring to suggest that cuts are neither necessary nor wise?
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
CreepyThinMan
More dapper than Don Draper.
06:09 PM on 02/14/2012
The conservatives are trying to engineer a crisis so that they can dismantle our healthcare system and bring in austerity.
06:19 PM on 02/14/2012
If only.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
JackHoffman
Pundit
06:46 PM on 02/14/2012
Exactly. First prisons then media and after, healthcare. They will continue to download costs to the provinces in order to force massive cuts. Just following the playbook of their yahoo cohorts down south. Borders, citizens' records, airspace and natural resources are halfway there.
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CreepyThinMan
More dapper than Don Draper.
07:29 PM on 02/14/2012
You've got it, JackHoffman, my friend. Herr Harper and his fascist buddies HATE the CBC which is why they are trying to destroy it and replace it with Fox Propaganda style tabloid media like Sun TV. They are also cutting healthcare spending so that it collapses and they can say "oh, look, the socialized healthcare system doesn't work, oh well, I guess we'll have to take it apart and replace it with a monsterous US style system". It's truly sad that the Canadian public gave this lizard slime a majority. My hope is that he runs everything soo far into the ground that the public learns its lesson on voting conservative.
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05:46 PM on 02/14/2012
Harper is obsessed with balancing the budget. It rankles him that the Liberals balanced the budget for 10 straight years before he gained the PM's office. He doesn't care what happens to the rest of us as long as he can point to a Conservative balanced budget.
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piceaglauca
The picture says it all....
06:17 PM on 02/14/2012
Can I ask, was there a recession during the Liberal period? A. Lot of this was bail out. I'm not a C.
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06:24 PM on 02/14/2012
No, not a big one. It was between '97 and '07. There's no doubt that recent budget deficits are the result of the failing economy in 2007 and the recession in 2008-09. I'm not saying Harper CAUSED the recession, no one in Canada caused that. I'm just saying that it's like an obsession for Harper to balamce it now, come hell or high water. It doesn't have to be done while the recovery is ongoing, it can wait, but he won't wait.
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gravescanada
09:20 AM on 02/15/2012
http://mercatus.org/sites/default/files/publicationCanada%27s%20Reversed%20Budget.Henderson.5.5.11.pdf
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colpy
06:23 PM on 02/14/2012
This is a GOOD thing: he should be obsessed with balancing the budget and paying down debt
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06:39 PM on 02/14/2012
Not at this point in time he shouldn't. He already raised payroll taxes.
07:07 PM on 02/14/2012
Cut military adventures in a client state roll first.
05:25 PM on 02/14/2012
i guess harpo has to pay for those f35 jets that don't work in Canada and the big corporate tax cuts somehow

corporations and corporate types give money to the CONservatives

cuts to pensions
cuts to healthcare
cuts for everything that 99% of canadians need but no cuts for the rich

cut cut cut

harpo seems like an out of control teenager

quick somebody get him a psych consult
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Warren Yuill
Jesus Built My Hot-Rod
05:19 PM on 02/14/2012
Just a thought.....
That is the strangest axe handle I've ever seen.
Some kinda weird hybrid wood/plastic thing-a-ma-bob.
Doesn't inspire a lot of confidence.
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Warren Yuill
Jesus Built My Hot-Rod
05:14 PM on 02/14/2012
Like I said before, its a confidence game.
Davos, OAS, austerity talk.....
It's all about generating confidence.
Now investor's confidence in Canada is proving to be problematic for ratings grunts like Moodys and Fitch.
Problematic, as it is off their charts in relation to the rest of the western world.
I'm cool with that.