CSIS On Bin Laden: Spy Agency Thought Terrorist Leader's Death Unlikely To Dim Flame Of Islamic Extremism

First Posted: 02/22/2012 3:48 pm Updated: 02/22/2012 5:45 pm

Csis Bin Laden Osama
Just hours after U.S. forces killed Osama bin Laden, Canada's spy agency predicted Islamic extremism would live on despite the al-Qaida leader's death. (AP/AFP/GettyImages)

OTTAWA - Just hours after U.S. forces killed Osama bin Laden, Canada's spy agency predicted Islamic radicalism would live on despite the al-Qaida leader's death.

A newly released assessment by the Canadian Security Intelligence Service says bin Laden — though important — was not the only ideologue advocating war between Islam and the West.

"The death of bin Laden is unlikely to have a negative impact on the ideology underpinning worldwide Islamist extremism," says the CSIS report.

"The narrative has shown itself to be flexible, adapting as circumstances change and events ebb and flow."

Bin Laden — whose terror network perpetrated the 9-11 attacks — was buried at sea last May after a covert U.S. team alit from helicopters, stormed a high-walled compound in Pakistan and killed him.

The CSIS assessment, written the day after his death, suggests groups inspired by the al-Qaida message might carry out attacks independently of the terrorist network's centre — pointing to an April bomb blast in a Moroccan square popular with tourists.

"These local groups may not have the logistic and operational wherewithal that the Core has (or once had), but they have executed a number of successful attacks."

The Canadian Press obtained a copy of the report — initially classified secret — under the Access to Information Act. CSIS excised much of the content for security and confidentiality reasons.

The assessment expresses concern that the killing of bin Laden would be seen as yet further proof that "the West is targeting Muslims in a Muslim country."

"His death as a 'martyr' — as one jihadi website has already stated — will almost certainly reinforce his iconic image and the righteousness of the AQ cause."

The intelligence report reflects a prevailing view among western intelligence agencies that the leadership of al-Qaida mattered less than the strides the organization had made as a global network, said historian Wesley Wark, a security expert who teaches at the University of Ottawa.

"The real impact is that Osama bin Laden is gone, and there is no sign that the al-Qaida core has been able to regenerate itself, or that the idea of a global, transnational terrorist group has been reborn anywhere."

Though much attention has been focused on offshoots or affiliates of al-Qaida in North Africa, the Arabian Peninsula and Somalia, they have played a rather different role in the extremist sphere, Wark said.

"As far as I know, they haven't indicated any rhetorical desire or capability to try and step into the al-Qaida shoes and become that vanguard global terrorism organization that Osama bin Laden dreamed about," he said.

"Secondly, they don't really seem to have focus for their operations that extends much beyond the regional environment in which they're located."

At the same time, Ayman al-Zawahiri, who formally succeeded bin Laden last June, has "kept an extremely low profile," Wark noted.

CSIS spokeswoman Tahera Mufti said that even with bin Laden's demise, al-Qaida "remains one of the most dangerous terrorist organizations in the world."

"I'm referring not just to the operational capacity of the group and its global affiliates, but also to its role in promoting hateful and extremist messages. The ideology unfortunately has survived the leader."

A federal counter-terrorism strategy released this month says violent Islamic extremism — including the possibility of young Canadians becoming radical followers — is the leading threat to Canada’s national security.

Wark said the government needs to be more precise in defining the threat to Canada from both the remnants of al-Qaida and homegrown extremism.

"Are we concerned about that from a Canadian perspective in terms of international insecurity? Do we think there might be links back to Canada? If so, what do they think those might be?" he said.

"The government is very much seized by this radicalization issue. But what is the real state of the threat in Canada?"

Related on HuffPost:

INTERESTING DISCOVERIES ON BIN LADEN COMPOUND
Loading Slideshow...
  • Marijuana

    A stroll around the 20-foot-tall, barbed wire led CNN's Nic Robertson to <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/05/05/osama-bin-laden-marijuana-crop_n_858301.html" target="_hplink">discover</a> a crop of marijuana plants just yards from the home. But whether or not bin Laden and his family were growing the weed for recreational purposes remains a mystery, and it has long been speculated that the Al Qaeda leader suffered from kidney failure, which would allow him to get a prescription for medical marijuana in many U.S. states.

  • Pornography

    As Reuters is <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/05/13/osama-bin-laden-porn_n_861664.html" target="_hplink">reporting</a>, a "fairly extensive" stash of "modern, electronically recorded" pornography was found in the compound, according to U.S. officials who spoke on condition of anonymity.

  • 'Natural Viagra'

    The <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/05/09/osama-bin-laden-avena-sativa-syrup-natura_n_859436.html" target="_hplink">discovery</a> of Avena syrup -- a botanical product often used as "natural Viagra" -- at bin Laden's compound has raised questions about whether or not the Al Qaeda leader or his associates were trying to boost their libidos. Also known by the nickname "wild oats," Avena Sativa syrup has two potential uses: to increase sexual desire, and as artificial sweetener used for a sour stomach.

  • Diary

    Navy SEALs <a href="http://theweek.com/article/index/215259/top-5-revelations-from-bin-ladens-diary" target="_hplink">reportedly</a> swiped the terrorist's short journal from his Pakistani compound. The al Qaeda leader is said to have mused about mass murder, <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/05/13/osama-bin-laden-obama-_n_861598.html" target="_hplink">naming </a>his number one target as President Obama, followed by U.S. military leaders including the defense secretary and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Interestingly, bin Laden noted that U.S. Vice President Joe Biden "was not an important target because that position has less weight."

  • No Internet Access

    As the <em>Washington Post</em> is <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/blogpost/post/osama-bin-ladens-doting-wives-secret-e-mail-system-and-other-secrets-revealed/2011/05/13/AFTdOX2G_blog.html" target="_hplink">reporting</a>, the compound lacked Internet access, so bin Laden would communicate though an "elaborate pass-the-buck" system by typing a message on his computer which would then be saved to a flash drive and given to a trusted courier, who would drive it to far-off Internet cafes and return with incoming e-mail.

  • Soft Drinks

    Bin Laden may have hated the United States, but that didn't stop him from <a href=" Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1383429/Osama-Bin-Laden-dead-Marijuana-grew-near-luxury-compound-Abbottabad.html#ixzz1MG1HF265" target="_hplink">reportedly </a>indulging in plenty of Coca-Cola and Pepsi -- products that are often associated with the Western commercialism the al Qaeda leader is said to have despised.

FOLLOW HUFFPOST CANADA POLITICS

OTTAWA - Just hours after U.S. forces killed Osama bin Laden, Canada's spy agency predicted Islamic radicalism would live on despite the al-Qaida leader's death.A newly released assessment by the Cana...
OTTAWA - Just hours after U.S. forces killed Osama bin Laden, Canada's spy agency predicted Islamic radicalism would live on despite the al-Qaida leader's death.A newly released assessment by the Cana...
Filed by Michael Bolen  | 
 
 
  • Comments
  • 23
  • Pending Comments
  • 0
  • View FAQ
Comments are closed for this entry
View All
Favorites
Recency  | 
Popularity
12:38 PM on 02/25/2012
He had to be whacked regardless. his death will not end terrorst and othe anti us activites. But getting him and other of his henchman has clipped their wings. The best thing to do is to attacke the terrorist support network. Without money etc they will be hamstrung.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
beckpod1
10:41 AM on 02/25/2012
CIA made Bin Laden a star.....they can do it again with some other person of their choosing......
ALiberalKidd
Before U Fan Know, Liberal ON Poor, Peace, Race
05:31 AM on 02/25/2012
I would hope one day before the world ends, the truth will be told that these people are not seeking war, but that their is only a reaction to conservative Anglo American and western alliances aggression, which is actually responsible for all conflicts with Islam.

Western liars refuse to go back to the beginning and ask did the British Empire, American, and western powers commit the first offensive and intrusive acts upon Islamic soil?

All that is needed for world peace is for America's conservative capitalists to give up their holier than thou world expansion plans, and live within their own small Christian / material existence.

War is a game that small and cowardly American politicians like to play with young poor people lives.
07:47 PM on 02/23/2012
Osama bin Laden is dead but terrorism goes on. Everyday there are multiple incidences of another Muslim terrorist attack- all in the name of God. This begs the question, "Who is financing these terrorists attacks?" Who are the real terrorists leaders? Who spends BILLIONS of Dollars promoting Sharia Law and "aw, the poor Muslim" in our western civilized world? My guess, the oil rich Wahabbi's Sheiks and religious leaders of Saudi Arabia. CSIS got it right. I heard an interview in which a retired CSIS agent said, "Follow the money" and he explained when you do you will find terror is sponsored by these oil rich middle east countries.
12:49 PM on 02/24/2012
It's been years since we know the Saudies are financing all the terrorist attacks, the hate speech and boycotts against America, Israel and the Jews, and also they push the world to continue buying at the OPEP with that rampant value of oil. A real pity Obama did censured the Canadian oil because of election and his environmentalist and union followers. So for him it's more important to be reelected than giving American people 40.000 new job positions. Get the facts: the saudies were there after 9/11 side by side with Bush giving relatives' victims a pure breed arab horse, and it was a really disgusting move. Also Obama did bow in front of king Abdullah and worst he gave the biz of oil in America to Chavez and the, of course, Saudies. Need more evidence?
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
DidiM
Human 'being'
05:14 PM on 02/23/2012
I must be really missing something here. What pray tell was "secret" about this "newly released CSIS report" ? I mean - media around the world including our mainstream NA - media - spoke about this topic so much - it became boring! And the hype - re: Arab Spring - now being sold as a dark - scary Arab Winter to come etc... well - let's put it this way. It's NOT a secret - nor new news, and if that's what CSIS is spending our money on, then it's time to replace it with a TV set.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
geminivoyager
02:15 AM on 02/23/2012
WOW! Canadian Intelligence really went out on a limb for that one...
11:21 PM on 02/22/2012
The US created and is running al Qaeda. The US installed al Qaeda as the new leadership in Lybia and, along with Britain and Israel, is supporting al Qaeda attacks on the government in Syria. As far as bin Laden is concerned, he died of kidney failure in December 2001. PLEASE REFRAIN FROM FEEDING US THESE MADE UP STORIES.
12:54 AM on 02/23/2012
Exactly. But I'm afraid we'll be seeing more of this fairy tail boogy man story now that Hollywood is set to spew out some more propaganda.
12:54 PM on 02/24/2012
Well Israel is not supporting AL Queda certainly. Syria is being attacked by rebels, who defend themselves from the gov't. They are abusing and doing a cleansing of adolescent boys, aside others. I really do not understand how could you be so biased when there're innocent kids being killed
04:02 PM on 02/24/2012
Compare the bull the media fed to Americans about Lybia, Iraq, Egypt , Afghanistan to what really happened and it is easy to see what will happen in Syria, then Iran and so on all the way to Saudi Arabia. Americans are like mushrooms, they are kept in the dark and fed a lot of manure by their government. I don't see why you can be so gullible when all those innocent muslims have been murdered by your innocent kids (who are not that innocent since they enlisted). Go to real information sources outside the US (Israel controlled) propaganda, you will learn something foreign to many Americans, something called "truth".
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
OH canada
08:35 PM on 02/22/2012
lies all over the board. stories told to people who believed in santa clause as children and now taught to believe in boogymen lol pathetic! first of OSB was assassinated in 07... youtube it!

and killing 1 mil ppl doesn't justify chasing boogymen
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
calisel99
life began wit the first self replicating molecule
01:46 PM on 02/23/2012
yeah the truth is on you tube lol
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
photo
08:17 PM on 02/22/2012
I think it was more than a coincidence that GW Bush announced the pursuit of Bin Laden was no longer a priority at roughly the same time OSB was installed at a compound in Pakistan. I'm not saying Bush was aware of any details but a "don't ask, don't tell" arrangement could have been reached where OSB could have lived in exchange for him removing himself from direct involvement with al Qaeda.
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
photo
Irazu
I have nothing to declare
02:32 PM on 02/23/2012
The facts of the case are certainly very strange. Not only was bin Laden "installed" in the compound, but the compound was conveniently located in a military area, making any attempt at extraction or intervention seemingly much more difficult. In spite of Pakistan's extremely shaky status as an "ally", the US government continues to reward them with billions of dollars in military aid, knowing full well that whatever government seems to be "in power", the political situation in Pakistan is so fluid that there is a very good chance that the weapons so generously donated will eventually be turned against the U.S. and its allies.

It is very difficult to ignore a nagging disquiet when one considers that the "beneficiaries" of terrorist attacks on the U.S. are the various moneyed interests so amply rewarded with contracts, profits and power, against a backdrop of whipped-up paranoia that serves only to increase the leverage of those who would play on the fears of a Simple People.
07:33 PM on 02/22/2012
Peter Bergen,CNN, the day after: "Killing bin Laden is the end of the War on Terror. We can just sort of announce that right now"

Sheesh.
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
photo
Irazu
I have nothing to declare
02:39 PM on 02/23/2012
The War on Terror admits no victory.

Orwell proposed an eternal war between three super-states, never reaching such a pitch as to present a serious threat to any one of them, with alliances shifting as necessary. The purposes of this war were to absorb surplus production that would otherwise be used to improve the citizens' standard of living, and to keep the huddled multitudes in a state of compliant fear.

But victory, as a war aim, was not even on the table. It was enough that the war would continue indefinitely, creating the necessary conditions for eternal rule by a governing elite over a cowed, frightened and eternally surveilled population.
07:00 PM on 02/22/2012
"islamic extremism"

I think invading Iraq and killing almost a million people was pretty "extreme" myself...

but hey, let's brand almost a quarter of the worlds population as extremists, I am sure that is a good idea.
07:34 PM on 02/22/2012
They hate us for our free-dumbs.
photo
GeneralDisarray
Fox News Viewers Know Less Than People ...
06:24 PM on 02/22/2012
Bush / Cheney was the best recruiting tool...
12:29 AM on 02/23/2012
Yes, it's just amazing how loving and kind the ALQ bunch became after Obama's election.
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
photo
Irazu
I have nothing to declare
02:51 PM on 02/23/2012
It's just as amazing that, even though most of know he doesn't exist, we're still afraid of the bogey-man. Perhaps that's not our fault - perhaps as children we were subjected to the dark threats of the bogey-man, and some lizard part of our brain retains the memory...
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Bec DeCorbeau
Le langage de l'invisible est le silence
05:48 PM on 02/22/2012
« Spy Agency Thought Terrorist Leader's Death Unlikely To Dim Flame Of Islamic Extremism »

Of course, you're the fuel!