Alberta Election Poll Shows Wildrose Party Ahead

Posted: 04/16/2012 8:52 am Updated: 04/17/2012 3:26 pm


A poll conducted for the CBC shows the Wildrose Party has a seven-point lead over the Progressive Conservatives just a week before the Alberta election, but it's edging towards majority territory.


The Return on Insight telephone poll found Wildrose has a commanding lead in rural areas, the most support of any party in Edmonton, and is running neck-and-neck with the PCs in Calgary.


ROI president Bruce Cameron said the race is tightening now that Liberal supporters appear to have moved to support the PCs in Calgary.


"It seems Albertans are increasingly lining up on one of two sides in this election: the Wildrose Party or the PC party,” he said.


With the election on April 23, the poll shows among decided voters that:


- The Wildrose Party leads with 43 per cent followed by the PCs at 36 per cent.


- The Liberals at 11 per cent.


- NDP at nine per cent.


- Alberta Party at one per cent.


Cameron said a Wildrose majority government is possible, given its level of support. The real battleground, the poll suggests, will likely be in the province's two big cities.


In Calgary, the Tories have a slim four-point lead over Wildrose at 45 per cent support to 41 per cent. In Edmonton, it's the Wildrose Party with a slight lead of 37 per cent to 31 per cent.


Wildrose has strong lead in rural Alberta


The Wildrose Party has a commanding 21-point lead over the PCs outside of the two major cities, at 52 per cent to 31 per cent.


But the poll found 24 per cent of Albertans are undecided about who to vote for, which reflects a higher than normal level of voter uncertainty this close to an election.


“Strategic voting, in which Liberal and ND supporters abandon their traditional loyalties to vote PC to stop the Wildrose, may have already begun in Calgary, making it a virtual tie," he said.


"But in Edmonton, Liberal and New Democrat support has held firm thus far, preventing a PC comeback and enabling the Wildrose to take the lead in the capital.


"These types of unprecedented shifts are very difficult to predict and even more difficult to control, so we are likely to see a hotly contested finish to the 2012 Alberta election.”


Results of the poll are based on a random poll of 800 Albertans. It was conducted April 13 and 14, and is accurate to within plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.


Earlier on HuffPost:

Loading Slideshow...
  • Highlights Of The Alberta Election

    Here's a look back at some of the most memorable moments from the campaign.

  • Wildrose Anti-Gay Blog Revealed

    A blog post saying that gays were destined to <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2012/04/15/wildrose-anti-gay-blog-alberta_n_1427008.html" target="_hplink">burn in a "lake of fire" for eternity was brought to light on April 16.</a> Allan Hunsperger, a pastor who's running as a Wildrose candidate in Edmonton South, also referenced Lady Gaga's 'Born This Way': "You see, you can live the way you were born, and if you die the way you were born then you will suffer the rest of eternity in the lake of fire, hell, a place of eternal suffering." Wildrose leader Danielle Smith said she was aware of Hunsperger's religious views.

  • Smith Booed, Mocked

    Wildrose leader Danielle Smith found herself <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2012/04/20/danielle-smith-booed-climate-change-alberta-election-debate_n_1439858.html" target="_hplink">on the receiving end of booing and mockery at a debate on April 19 for questioning climate change .</a> "There is still a debate in the scientific community," said Smith before being drowned out by a chorus of boos and catcalls. PC leader Alison Redford said Smith leading the province would be an embarrassment.

  • Candidate Makes 'White Advantage' Comment

    Wildrose candidate Ron Leech <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2012/04/17/ron-leech-wildrose-candidate_n_1432653.html" target="_hplink">made some controversial remarks about race on a South Asian radio show.</a> "I think as a Caucasian I have an advantage. When different community leaders such as a Sikh leader or a Muslim leader speaks, they really speak to their own people in many ways. As a Caucasian, I believe that I can speak to all the community," said Leech. He apologized for his remarks on April 24, saying that his comments did not come out the way he intended.

  • Redford Under Seige

    During the April 12 debate, the candidates for the Wildrose, Liberal and NDP took the opportunity to <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2012/04/12/alberta-election-debate_n_1419850.html" target="_hplink">gang up on Progressive Conservative leader Alison Redford</a>. It was an unsurprising tactic given that the Tories have held power in Alberta for 11 consecutive majority governments, although polls reveal the Wildrose may have a fighting chance.

  • Bus Cleavage

    When the Wildrose first rolled out their campaign bus, <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2012/03/23/alberta-wildrose-campaign_n_1375998.html" target="_hplink">there was something distinctly odd about the wheel placement </a>in relation to Smith's image. Late night host Jay Leno even poked fun at the busty bus before a new, less suggestive design rolled out.

  • Closing The Gap

    An April 10 poll showed that Danielle Smith's Wildrose party was <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2012/04/11/alberta-election-2012-poll_n_1417267.html" target="_hplink">neck and neck with the Progressive Conservatives</a>. The Leger Marketing poll showed the Wildrose has the support of 36 per cent of Albertans, compared to 34 per cent for the governing Tories.

  • 22 Minutes Pokes Fun At Candidates

    This Hour Has 22 Minutes gave their own take on the Alberta election by poking fun at the similarities between Alison Redford and Danielle Smith. <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2012/04/03/alberta-election-2012-22-minutes_n_1400747.html" target="_hplink">CLICK TO WATCH</a>

  • PC Staffer Gets Personal

    Progressive Conservative staffer<a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2012/03/31/pc-staffer-resigns-danielle-smith-wildrose-tweet_n_1393807.html" target="_hplink"> Amanda Wilkie "resigned" on March 31 after tweeting</a> "If @ElectDanielle likes young and growing families so much, why doesn't she have children of her own? #wrp family pack = insincere." Backlash came swiftly from the PC, the Wildrose and Twitter users alike. Alison Redford herself issues an apology, but not before Smith revealed that she didn't have children due to fertility issues.

  • Awkward!

    In a moment of levity, but mostly embarrassment for Danielle Smith, the Wildrose leader's <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2012/03/31/danielle-smith-dogs-wildrose-alberta_n_1394069.html" target="_hplink">dogs got frisky during a photo op in Calgary</a>.

  • The Other Guys

    In a province where conservative values dominate politics, Brian Mason's NDP and Raj Sherman's Liberals are left to <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2012/04/06/alberta-election-liberals-ndp-edmonton_n_1408884.html" target="_hplink">duke it out in left-leaning pockets such as Edmonton</a>.

  • Controversial Issues

    On April 10, for the second time, Wildrose leader Danielle Smith was called out for her<a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2012/04/10/danielle-smith-pro-choice-gay-marriage_n_1416319.html" target="_hplink"> supposed opposing stance on abortion and gay marriage</a>. Smith however snuffed out the controversy: "When our members elected me they knew they were electing a candidate that was pro-choice and pro-gay marriage." The issues came up earlier in the election when <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2012/04/07/alberta-election-abortion-social-issues_n_1409963.html" target="_hplink">Smith was less forthcoming</a> on the subjects.

  • Tory Candidate Assaulted

    Alberta's education minister Thomas Lukaszuk claimed he was <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2012/04/07/thomas-lukaszuk-assault_n_1410308.html" target="_hplink">assaulted while canvassing in an Edmonton neighbourhood</a>. He said he knocked on the door of a residence with a Wildrose support sign and, once recognized, was punched by the resident within. The resident, Al Michalchuk, says he merely nudged Lukaszuk when he refused to leave.

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A poll conducted for the CBC shows the Wildrose Party has a seven-point lead over the Progressive Conservatives just a week before the Alberta election, but it's edging towards majority t...
A poll conducted for the CBC shows the Wildrose Party has a seven-point lead over the Progressive Conservatives just a week before the Alberta election, but it's edging towards majority t...
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07:16 PM on 04/17/2012
Hopefully, when the east tries to pull another swift move on us like say a new eastern National Energy Plan 2.0 the WildRose Party will do what the Reform Party should have done and turned into the Western Liberation Movement uniting with B.C., Saskatchewan & the Yukon & form a new Dominion west of Manitoba. It truly would be one of the richest and happiest non-opec countries in the world within 5 to 7 years, then perhaps my kids and grandchildren will really have a united country and future. We could eliminate foodbanks, give free higher education, great medical plan & hospitals, take very good care of our veterans and the elderly and supply housing for everybody who would like it! We certainly would not waste money to the tune of BILLIONS of $ for a dying third world language which does not even make as much sense as Cree or the Haida language.
So GOOD LUCK WildRose Party......GOOD LUCK!
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Wild Thing
Say What?!
03:21 AM on 04/18/2012
How are you going to achieve such utopia when Alberta, awash in oil, can't even manage a surplus now? Did you ever stop to ask yourself why that is? hint: Rex Tillerson's retirement is approaching, and I bet he wants what Lee Raymond got. another hint: Texas and now China own you.

...and I, for one, don't want to join with you to create a new dominion of racists.
04:01 PM on 04/18/2012
The oil problem can be worked out for God Sake as oil prices are not going to go down! Da.....
AND WHO"D WANT YOU?
06:25 PM on 04/18/2012
Well how timely. It was just mentioned on the radio talk show that when one starts spouting off about racists, or racism it's simply because one has run out of good arguments and cannot think of anything else to say except to start whining or crying about racists or racism! Way to go, thanks for proving the point wild thing!
This is fun isn't it?
05:47 PM on 04/17/2012
Gee the GTA lefties dont like Wildrose, like who cares!
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turkeylurky
Just keepin it real........
08:41 AM on 04/17/2012
Don't these Albertans know that in Canada only Quebec is allowed to have a provoncial party which represents its own interests?
08:38 AM on 04/17/2012
Welcome to Alberta otherwise now known as Texas North. Please shove your head up your ... for security reasons
05:40 PM on 04/17/2012
Welcome to the wide world of generalizations
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Ascoli
06:52 AM on 04/17/2012
Alberta......... the intellectual cesspoo lof Canada
Texas North
Separate......SVP
Join your tea bags south.
07:21 PM on 04/17/2012
Well, hopefully the Wild Rose Party will win, and we in the west can begin uniting B.C. & Sask with the Yukon, and flush everything east of the Lake of the Woods right down the St.Lawrence. Ontario and queerbec can hug and kiss, tell each other just how important they are and begin there march to the poor house! The sooner the better!
02:34 AM on 04/17/2012
Wildrose party is Canadas version of the Tea party..a bunch of right wing nuts living in the fear of a changing world around them...They live in the richest province in the country and are still the most miserable people u can find any where in this country...biggest regret leavin beautiful BC to be governed by these clowns...vote progressive conservative and keep the inbreds out..
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Wild Thing
Say What?!
01:50 AM on 04/18/2012
It would be good if Albertans went one step further and rid themselves entirely of their con clowns. That would help stop the Texas North cancer from spreading, although it has already metastasized to Ottawa.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Taylor Jay
I don't align myself with any political party.
01:50 AM on 04/17/2012
the thing is. these are all polls, take them with a grain of salt.

if your Ndp, Liberal, greens, do not stand a chance at winning a seat in their riding, vote PC to keep Alberta realistic.
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Wild Thing
Say What?!
01:38 AM on 04/17/2012
As Bruce Cockburn once sang "the trouble with normal is it always gets worse". How much worse can it get in Alberta? I think we're about to see.
01:47 AM on 04/17/2012
only if Redford actually stays in power
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Phatbiker
Dentalfloss tycoon
11:50 PM on 04/16/2012
Smith is Alberta's version of Michele Bachmann, A religious kook who thinks god wants her in charge.
05:44 PM on 04/17/2012
Brad Wall was seen as a religious kook by the Eastern Media years ago. Has been in office for over four years and actually never made a comment pertaining to religion even though this home riding of Swift Current has one of largest churchs to population ratios in Canada. This religion thing seems to bother the leftie elitists more than anyone else.
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
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07:51 PM on 04/16/2012
I know I stereotyped the entire Albertan population.

But what does anyone, including me, say after reading this piece?
02:23 AM on 04/17/2012
How fast can I move to Alberta?
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Ascoli
06:53 AM on 04/17/2012
Good riddance
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
itsmedia
07:42 AM on 04/17/2012
How fast can I Move out of Alberta
07:49 PM on 04/16/2012
Between the "Wildrose" party, Harper's stealthy rollback of liberal accomplishments, and the federal government's insistence that fossil-based fuels should be the backbone of the Canadian economy, Canada is taking giant leaps backwards.
07:38 PM on 04/16/2012
It looks like Alberta is in for a breath of fresh air. If I lived in Alberta I would vote for a change...41years of one party in power is too long. This new premier no doubt has a few odd balls that will get elected as they will ride to victory on Allison Smith coat tails.She will have to weed them out before the next election. Her situation is not new.Every new government has a few MLA's that are off the wall but as a rule they don't get to line their pockets,they just embarass the government.
07:16 PM on 04/16/2012
Who votes for these right-ring parties and why?
07:24 PM on 04/16/2012
Poeple with fear of god and jealousy throught others. Plus those who doesn't know Titanic was a real story and not just a bad movie.
10:32 PM on 04/16/2012
I find it odd that people who preach bible seem to be the lest caring and the first to throw stones.
01:42 AM on 04/17/2012
I will and as someone born in Alberta the PC party used to stand for fiscal restraint but has been hijacked buy 2 unelected premiers One a hick farmer and the second by a liberal pretending to be conservative to get a job. Conservatives believe in fiscal responsibility. We do not believe in punishing success and rewarding failure. Anyone who thinks governments can spend more than they take in should look at Greece and the lessons therein.
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freeSpeakr
I stand on the shoulders of giants
08:55 AM on 04/17/2012
We also believe that markets are stable, rational and self-regulating. Oh wait. That's not true.

Here's some info for ya Sharky.

Economyths : Ten Ways Economics Gets It Wrong by David Orrell
Pub: John Wiley & Sons Canada, 2010
ISBN:9780470677933

Also: The Economics of Innocent Fraud by John Kenneth Galbraith.
The Good Society by John Kenneth Galbraith.

These two books will provide some understanding of the folly of the Chicago School and the Arrow-Debreu model.”

I also recommend Kuhn's "Evolution of Economic Thought" if only because (a) it's a good overview of the development of economic theory and (b) it was published just prior to Eugene Fama's laughable "Efficient Market Hypothesis" - the gospel of Trickle-Downers, Supply-Siders, and Tea Baggers everywhere.
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Wild Thing
Say What?!
02:43 AM on 04/18/2012
Hey Sharky, you need to take off your blinders to see what cons also stand for. Fiscal restraint? Didn't Alberta run a deficit of almost $5 billion in 2010? And a deficit of more than $3 billion in 2011? How's your Sustainability fund doing compared to, say, Norway's? Norway's is at $570 billion. All that came from oil revenues. Yours? Oh yeah...it will be drawn down to less than $2 billion by 2014 to pay for more deficits. If it keeps going like that, it won't even be worth as much as Lee Raymond's retirement package from Exxon. The oil companies sure love your low royalty rates. Have you ever stopped to ask yourself why a province with such natural riches just can't seem to save?
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
RudyHaugeneder
07:13 PM on 04/16/2012
Gawd Albertans. Don't vote for her.
CALGARY — Alberta Wildrose party leader Danielle Smith said Monday that she isn't convinced climate change is real.
In response to a question from a reader, Smith told a Calgary Herald-Edmonton Journal online debate on the April 23 vote she has not been convinced science has solidly backed the theory that human activities are contributing to global climate change.
"We've always said the science isn't settled and we need to continue to monitor the debate," Smith wrote.
Gawd.
09:33 PM on 04/16/2012
I live in Alberta and am just sick that this tea party of the north is about to get power
01:35 AM on 04/17/2012
comparing the wildrose to the tea party shows how out of touch with reality you are, spare me
07:33 PM on 04/17/2012
Well, she's right. Just who was here causing pollution 12 thousand years ago melting the 2 miles of ice which covered Canada! Global warming......what a con job. Don't you think it just might be a natural cycle of the earth? DON'T YOU THINK?
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07:04 PM on 04/16/2012
Sounds funny to me. The possibility of a minority Conservative government with Conservatives in power and official opposition.

Remind me to gas up before I leave Saskatchewan.