Carney Warns Of Potential Housing Market Trouble

CBC  |  Posted: 04/21/2012 3:13 pm Updated: 04/23/2012 10:24 pm


Canada's top banker suggests the housing market could be headed for trouble in parts of the country where home prices are high.


In an interview airing Saturday on CBC Radio's The House, Carney told host Evan Solomon there are "issues in some segments" of the housing market but stopped short of saying a housing bubble exists in Canada.


"There are issues particularly in some parts of the country, in the condo market, without question, where activity has been particularly strong ... and in some of our major cities, without question, evaluations are extremely firm," Carney said.


"Some caution is warranted in that environment," he added.


Economists have pointed to the condo markets in Toronto and Vancouver as being particularly unsustainable.


The average home price in Vancouver finally saw a decline in March at $730,998 from $823,749 in February, while the average home price in Toronto rose again in March at $503,998 from $499,354 in February.


"We're warning of an issue at a time that we can still do something about it," said Carney.


According to him, there are a number of defences to protect against a housing bubble.


"First and foremost, it's the decisions of the individuals who take out the loans, and Canadians are a smart and prudent people," he said.


But he added that the onus isn't just on individual Canadians, but also on the banks and institutions that must make some wise decisions and not lend to people who clearly can't pay the money back, as well as the federal government for tightening mortgage lending rules.


All of these measures will "help to ensure the system is resilient," he said.


Carney repeated warnings against Canadians taking on too much household debt, after the Bank of Canada this week left the key interest rate untouched at one per cent for the 13th consecutive time.


Carney said interest rates "are going to go higher," and Canadians should make sure they can carry that debt when interest rates "are at a more normal level."


Denies rumours of England


Carney, who is no stranger to England, maintained he was not approached by the Bank of England to replace its current governor Sir Mervyn King whose term expires next year.


Carney, who worked at Goldman Sachs in London and obtained his PhD from Oxford University, said that he saw King "in the course of the last 24 hours" and the two "had a laugh about it."


Carney spoke to Solomon from Washington, D.C., where he is attending the G20 Spring Meetings of the IMF and the World Bank.


He chalked up this week's rumours to "the media business."


"Sometimes it's easier to talk about personalities than it is to talk about monetary policy or the intricacies of the Financial Stability Board," Carney joked.


New $20 bill almost ready


When asked how Carney would mark the Queen's Diamond Jubilee and 86th birthday today, Carney hesitated for a moment then thanked Solomon for reminding him, saying: "I better get a card in the mail."


Jokes aside, Carney said the Bank of Canada is putting the "finishing touches" on the new polymer $20 bill which features a portrait of Queen Elizabeth II and is scheduled for release later this year.




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Canada's top banker suggests the housing market could be headed for trouble in parts of the country where home prices are high. In an interview airing Saturday on CBC Radio's ...
Canada's top banker suggests the housing market could be headed for trouble in parts of the country where home prices are high. In an interview airing Saturday on CBC Radio's ...
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Mr e MaN
Political Atheist
10:08 AM on 04/23/2012
Canada is in for a real crash soon as people start to realize how bad things actually are both in over valuation in Vancouver and TO. The harper government will begin slashing staff and the Ontario government in an austerity program. Intrest rates will make a significant impact as they rise. the reason they are low is the economy is weak in the fist place. When people wake up to fact our country was sold of to the reast of the world. We will realize the price of free trade.

The impact of foreign money is a very valid concern Vancouver has been sold out to non Canadians and this will have to stop too.
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WorldisMorphing
Jaded Iconoclast ...
08:53 PM on 04/22/2012
Awww....growth by asset price inflation...it's like crystal meth !

http://michael-hudson.com/2012/03/film-real-estate-4-ransom/
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Liz Wilson 2
“a small group can change the world
03:17 AM on 04/22/2012
I think Carney is an honest banker who does care about Canadians and the economy. I sincerely hope he is not lured away
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
opprobrious
More speech. Less Flagging.
12:30 AM on 04/22/2012
"First and foremost, it's the decisions of the individuals who take out the loans, and Canadians are a smart and prudent people,"

Canadians are no more prudent or smarter than anyone else. Make money easy to borrow and they will borrow it and lenders will fall over themselves lending it.
12:25 AM on 04/22/2012
Why not let the market decide rather than start a stampede by the head of the bank of Canada.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
opprobrious
More speech. Less Flagging.
12:44 AM on 04/22/2012
Because left to its own devices the market would do what it has always done: eat itself. Central banking and prudent monetary policy are ideas that served the world well for decades until Alan Greenspan had the bright idea of letting the market decide, again. Monetary policy exists for a reason: to attenuate volatility in the marketplace so the market can continue to function. We've been letting the market run itself for over ten years now by holding prime rates artificially low and letting speculators speculate in an overheated market. A bad idea. And, we've simultaneously opened our markets to places that have much lower standards of living and much larger economies of scale without considering that doing so puts huge pressure on our earning power. Another bad idea.
12:05 AM on 04/22/2012
Who cares? What exactly does this have to do with the greater Canadian housing market, pray tell?

Carney has isolated two puss-filled pimples on the most bulbous sectors of the country's overgrown proboscis which, should they burst, would hardly produce any significant blemish on its overall complexion.

I've little sympathy for anyone foolish enough to live in these regions - or see purchasing real estate there as an investment - who doesn't possess the disposable wealth to be able to withstand such an implosion. This is the second largest country in the world, with at least hundreds of completely disconnected housing markets. If one insists on living in the most affluent areas of this vast nation, be sure you can afford it. I know northerners like myself (and even those in Toronto and Vancouver's satellite suburbs) will not be impacted in the slightest when these overinflated markets meet their inevitable fate.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
opprobrious
More speech. Less Flagging.
12:16 AM on 04/22/2012
Wait until it happens and then you'll know. I suspect it'll have a real impact on things that extend beyond mere property values. As for having sympathy for people because they choose to live where many of the jobs or are otherwise anchored there, well, that just says that you don't have much capacity for empathy.
12:30 AM on 04/22/2012
Landon Brown - you are ridiculous. The population of Vancouver and Toronto combined equal 1/3 of the country - that's why it matters. Who wants to listen to an over-represented Northener living in a "town" of 5,000 people? A couple of blocks in Toronto have a greater population. I'm tired of rural Canada acting like the majority. The ridings in this country need to be re-organized to properly represent population - right now ridings in Toronto have over 100,000 people and out in the backwoods they barely comprise 50,000. A little more democracy is required to actually run this country properly rather then pander to tiny populations and prop up your regional towns with make-work projects. I know it's tough to hear but it's true - cities in Canada are seriously underrepresented.
10:01 AM on 04/22/2012
And over-subsidized.
11:26 PM on 04/21/2012
Carney is berating 'Canadians' when it isn't the Canadians at all that is causing this distorted market. It is a flood of Chinese millionaires buying their future get away from what in the not too distant future is going to be an totally unlivable country.

We are treated almost daily to news about the rise of China. There is just one little flaw with the whole China rising scenario... you have to be able to breath the air...
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
sdgreen
11:22 PM on 04/21/2012
The mortgage interest rates are low enough now, that a percent or 2 is likely not to much harm. The largest issue though are house maintenance, energy costs and municipal property taxes and fees. The latter is especially punitive to the average house owner.

Property owners are being taxed in double time to support added social services and transportation costs along with a bunch of other non-essential things. Fire, Police and infrastructure stuff is falling by the way side. That is one of the issues that needs to be addressed.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Mike Keohane
10:46 PM on 04/21/2012
Firstly, he can't raise raise rates in advance of other industrialized countries as that would drive up the value of the Canadian Dollar to the further deterioration of the Candian manufacturing sector. Secondly, the rates he sets have very little corelation with mortgage funding and mortgage rates. I'd say the only option is for CMHC to further tighten underwriting guidelines in select regional markets and that move would be a real political hot potato.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Adrian31
60% of the time, it works everytime...
10:35 PM on 04/21/2012
I've been hearing this stuff for years and every year is a reaffirmation of how they have incorrectly predicted the demise of the housing market. There's lots of money in China and India being dumped into our real estate market and that'll continue to be the case.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Steve Lives
The Venus Project ... look it up
11:18 PM on 04/21/2012
Meanwhile, Canadians will live in the streets. Love that monetary system....
12:42 AM on 04/22/2012
The reason why condo towers are still going up all over the city is the developers know that this boom will last another 25 years. All thanks to the chinese. Vancouver started in the 1980s and is still sky high - from people leaving Hong Kong. Now Toronto has just really started to bloom. This is not going to end any time soon.
10:03 AM on 04/22/2012
That's what the Irish thought.
10:11 PM on 04/21/2012
Has anyone been encouraged in the last decade to build apartments? No! It's condos, baby! Vacancy rates have been extremely low; those without downpayments squeezed, and while there has ALWAYS been a constant demand for rental apartments, the cities have happily allowed rental units to convert, new construction to be almost completely condos, and then, when every one has practically been forced to invest in a condo if they want a place to live, governments are warning that the bottom may fall out, that too many people bought condos. Well, what other options were there? If you needed a 3 bedroom place, you sure the heck couldn't rent one.
10:05 AM on 04/22/2012
Don't worry, condos turn into apartments when they don't sell. There will be plenty of waterfront apartments for rent real soon.
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Vapula
Failure is not an option
09:52 PM on 04/21/2012
Pity he can't go to England. The demand for property, especially on the West Coast from overseas investors does not suggest that the property market is on the verge of collapse. In fact the opposite seems to be true. The housing market is vibrant and ever more properties are being built. Of course, for Canadians, the rise in mortgage interest rates will have some effect but not enough to undermine the market fundementals.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
nikki717
War...what is it good for?
09:44 PM on 04/21/2012
This is bad news especially with subprime mortgage offerings looming in the shadows.
09:41 PM on 04/21/2012
Well Mark Carney is certainly not helping those markets by making these kinds of statements. What is the point? To make it happen? Does he want to move to Vancouver and is just preparing the ground?
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
oxjr
09:29 PM on 04/21/2012
There is a cute gay couple down the street who put equity into their 3 bdrm modest ranchstyle house in Vancouver for 30 years and sold it for just under 3 million. They moved to Moncton, bought one of the cities grandest historical homes, started an antique shop and have a 2nd home and shop in Florida. Even if their two stores fail - they still have almost 2.5 million left in the bank. To anyone who got their big city house decades ago, I recommend you look into the smaller towns of Canada and picture a life of being your own boss, living in the house of your dreams and having the freedom to do what you want. Sell that shack and bring some of that cash out east.