Green Party Leader May believes her opponents are trying to use the redistricting process currently underway to ensure she doesn’t have a chance to repeat her victory in the riding of Saanich-Gulf Islands in B.C. (CP/AFP Getty Images)
She calls it a “transparent plan for gerrymandering.”
He calls it smart politics.
Like several ridings across the country, Saanich-Gulf Islands was a close race on election day, May 2, 2011. With deep support in the outer regions of the B.C. riding, Green Party Leader Elizabeth May defeated incumbent cabinet minister Gary Lunn by 7,346 votes and obtained her party’s first ever seat in Parliament.
But now, May believes her opponents are trying to use the redistricting process currently underway to ensure she doesn’t have a chance for a repeat performance in the next federal election.
She points the finger at Bruce Hallsor, the election planning chair of the Saanich-Gulf Islands’ Conservative riding association, who in a newsletter last fall described parts of the riding that could be sliced off to give the Tories a boost. He says he was only doing what every good partisan would do.
May believes she has proof that’s what the Conservatives intend to do in her riding.
Pointing to that fall newsletter from the Conservative riding association, May told HuffPost her opponents have laid out clear plans for winning the riding back — by having the “greenest” parts removed.
In a section of the newsletter titled ‘campaign corner,’ Hallsor describes four reasons why he thinks the Tories will be able to stop May in 2015. At the top of his list is the redistribution process.
Because Southern Vancouver Island is expected to receive an additional seat, Hallsor suggests the riding of Saanich-Gulf Islands can expect to lose one of three areas or a combination of the three: the Gulf Islands, the area South of MacKenzie Avenue or Gordon Head.
“If you removed all three of these areas, and only had the area from Sidney to Broadmead, we would have won the last election,” Hallsor writes. “Any likely redistribution scenario will either make the results of the last election closer, or make us the winners.”
May, whose strongest support came from the Gulf Islands, said she is cautiously optimistic the process will be fair but fears “having the riding gerrymandered” to remove the areas that voted most for the Green Party.
“It makes me nervous that the Conservative Party riding association felt so confident that they would write that about what their plans were to win back the riding,” she said.
“From their newsletter it is clear that they see certain areas as particular strong Green areas and they are hoping that those areas get removed from my riding,” she added.
STORY CONTINUES BELOW SLIDESHOW
Loading Slideshow
Large Ridings Likely To See Boundary Changes
Here are some of the largest ridings likely to see major changes, and what those changes might mean.
21st largest: Montcalm (Quebec)
Pop: 144,141<br>
Density: 160/km2<br>
2004, 2006, 2008: BQ - Roger Gaudet<br>
2011: NDP - Manon Perreault, pictured,<br>
Though there is no more than a residual BQ vote, this and neighbouring ridings used to give Bloc strong majorities. If BQ returns, new ridings in the area could be close NDP/BQ battles. If NDP holds strong, they will increase the party's numbers in the House<br>(Handout)
18th largest: Mississauga - Brampton South (Ontario)
Pop: 147,096<br>
Density: 1,885.7/km2<br>
2004, 2006, 2008: LPC - Navdeep Bains<br>
2011: CPC - Eve Adams, pictured, (45% to 35% LPC)<br>
Riding has areas of Liberal strength towards Mississauga, where neighbouring ridings are also more supportive of the Liberals.<br>(CP)
9th, 10th, 11th, 13th, 14th, and 16th largest: Ridings in Calgary and Edmonton
9th, 10th, 11th, 13th, 14th, and 16th largest: Ridings in Calgary and Edmonton.<br>
All have given Conservatives strong majorities, and the added ridings in Alberta are accordingly expected to deliver five or six seats for the Conservatives.<br>
Pictured: Calgary West Tory MP Rob Anders and Prime Minister Stephen Harper, MP for Calgary Southwest.<br>(CP)
8th largest: Nepean-Carleton (Ontario)
Pop: 159,032<br>
Density: 141/km2<br>
2004, 2006, 2008, 2011: CPC - Pierre Poilievre, pictured, (54% to 25% LPC in 2011<br>
Very large riding that stretches from suburban Ottawa to rural areas. Likely to have parts of it attached to more urban sections of Ottawa, including the strongly Liberal riding of Ottawa South.<br>(Handout)
7th largest: Fleetwood - Port Kells (British Columbia)
Pop: 160,129<br>
Density: 1,511.3/km2<br>
2004, 2006, 2008, 2011: CPC - Nina Grewal, pictured, (48% to 33% NDP in 2011)<br>
Has voted Conservative, but western section of riding has significant NDP support, and the two ridings to the west are held by the New Democrats.<br>(Handout)
6th largest: Mississauga - Erindale (Ontario)
Pop: 160,663<br>
Density: 3,445.6/km2<br>
2004: LPC - Carolyn Parrish<br>
2006: LPC - Omar Alghabra<br>
2008, 2011: CPC - Bob Dechert, pictured, (47% to 34% LPC in 2011)<br>
Pockets of Liberal support scattered about, but bordered by another Liberal riding to the northeast.<br>(Handout)
5th largest: Bramalea - Gore - Malton (Ontario)
Pop: 192,020<br>
Density: 1,342.4/km2<br>
2004, 2006, 2008: LPC - Gurbax Singh Malhi<br>
2011: CPC - Bal Gosal, pictured, (34% to 34% NDP)<br>
Very close three-way race, with Liberals finishing third with 29% support. A patchwork of Liberal, Conservative, and NDP support, but surrounding areas are relatively strong Conservative ridings.<br>(Handout)
4th largest: Vaughan (Ontario)
Pop: 196,068<br>
Density: 897.5/km2<br>
2004, 2006, 2008: LPC - Maurizio Bevilacqua<br>
2010, 2011: CPC - Julian Fantino, pictured, (56% to 30% LPC in 2011<br>
Solidly Conservative after a close by-election in 2010, but has a long Liberal history and is bordered to the south by two Liberal ridings and one close three-way contest.<br>(CP)
2nd largest: Brampton West (Ontario)
Pop: 204,146<br>
Density: 1,977.9/km2<br>
2004, 2006: LPC - Colleen Beaumier<br>
2008: LPC - Andrew Kania<br>
2011: CPC - Kyle Seeback, pictured, (45% to 35% LPC)<br>
A dense riding surrounded by other highly populated ridings. Large pockets of Liberal support, particularly near a region of Liberal support in neighbouring Mississauga - Brampton South.<br>(Handout)
1st largest: Oak Ridges - Markham (Ontario)
Pop: 228,997<br>
Density: 336.8/km2<br>
2004, 2006: LPC - Lui Temelkovski<br>
2008, 2011: CPC - Paul Calandra, pictured, (51% to 27% LPC in 2011)<br>
Strong Conservative riding, but the area around Markham has more NDP and Liberal support. Two bordering ridings in Markham held by the Liberals and NDP.<br>(Handout)
Reached at his law office in Victoria, Hallsor told HuffPost his newsletter was not articulating some grand strategy to manipulate the process but simply speculating on what the independent boundary commission may decide.
“It is entirely my speculation and I think it is clear from that newsletter and I think for Ms. May to suggest otherwise is completely grandstanding on her part. I mean she has absolutely no evidence that there is any — I don’t have any power, I am just a volunteer at the riding level,” Hallsor said.
The Conservative riding association’s election planning chair points to the fact that the newsletter says his group “cannot really control” or “predict” what will happen.
The Conservatives plan to engage in the boundary process by sending their members to public hearings, Hallsor confirmed, something he suggested was simply smart politics.
“I would think that every political party looks at what polls they win and what polls they lose and when riding boundaries are going to change, you know, you’re interested in how that will affect things. Certainly, we will be interested in that and I expect Ms. May would also be interested in that aspect.”
Share your vote on Facebook so your friends can take this poll
Since May’s support is mostly in the extreme parts of the riding and not so much in the middle, Hallsor said that “if the riding was to lose something off the top or off the bottom, that’s probably good for us.”
Hallsor said there was no question the riding would shrink, the only question was where the contraction will take place.
May confirmed her former campaign manager is also crunching the numbers and looking at poll by poll data in order to make a proposal to the commission about what areas should be carved off, if a new riding is created.
The focus, the Green Party leader said, should be on keeping communities together even if that means keeping strong Conservative voting blocs intact.
She’s hoping that by raising the alarm and speaking out against what she views as the Conservatives’ intention to influence the process that she may stop any such action from happening.
"I am hoping they will back off from any such plans and we will have a fair boundary process that delivers as much as possible a non-partisan assessment of where a new riding should be created on southern Vancouver island," she said.
Like Huffington Post Canada's Ottawa Bureau Chief Althia Raj's reporter page on Facebook and follow her onTwitter for all the latest news from Parliament Hill.
althia.raj@huffingtonpost.com
CORRECTION: An earlier version of this story contained a slideshow which stated Conservative MP Paul Calandra was first elected in 2011. He was actually first elected in the riding of Oak Ridges-Markham in 2008.
Loading Slideshow
As <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2012/04/25/electoral-boundary-commissions-canada_n_1451484.html" target="_hplink">electoral boundary commissions begin to carve up ridings</a> to make way for the <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2011/12/14/house-of-commons-seats-senate_n_1149540.html" target="_hplink">30 new seats being added to the House of Commons</a>, we take a look at how many seats each province is getting and just how fair representation really is in Canada.<br><br>
Except in extraordinary circumstances, the population of each electoral district must be within +/-25% of the provincial quota.<br><br>
(Shutterstock / <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/tomatogeezer/" target="_hplink">Flickr: Tomato Geezer</a>)
Ontario
Ontario will gain 15 new seats under the Tory bill, bringing the province's total to 121.<br><br>
Ontario's population is now 12,851,821 people.<br><br>
The size each riding should now be is 106,213 people.<br><br>
Percentage of House: Approximately 36 per cent.<br><br>
Percentage of Canada's population: Approximately 38 per cent.<br><br>
(Alamy)
Quebec
Quebec will gain three new seats under the Tory bill, bringing the province's total to 78.<br><br>
Quebec's population is now 7,903,001 people.<br><br>
The size each riding should now be is 101,321 people.<br><br>
Percentage of House: Approximately 23 per cent.<br><br>
Percentage of Canada's population: Approximately 24 per cent.<br><br>
(Alamy)
British Columbia
B.C. will gain six new seats under the Tory bill, bringing the province's total to 42.<br><br>
B.C.'s population is now 4,400,057 people.<br><br>
The size each riding should now be is 104,763 people.<br><br>
Percentage of House: Approximately 12 per cent.<br><br>
Percentage of Canada's population: Approximately 13 per cent.<br><br>
(Alamy)
Alberta
Alberta will gain six new seats under the Tory bill, bringing the province's total to 34.<br><br>
Alberta's population is now 3,645,257 people.<br><br>
The size each riding should now be is 107,213 people.<br><br>
Percentage of House: Approximately 10 per cent.<br><br>
Percentage of Canada's population: Approximately 11 per cent.<br><br>
(Alamy)
Manitoba
Manitoba will gain no new seats under the Tory bill. The province currently has 14 seats.<br><br>
Manitoba's population is now 1,208,268 people.<br><br>
The size each riding should be is 86,305 people.<br><br>
Percentage of House: Approximately 4 per cent.<br><br>
Percentage of Canada's population: Approximately 4 per cent.<br><br>
(Alamy)
Saskatchewan
Saskatchewan will gain no new seats under the Tory bill. The province currently has 14 seats.<br><br>
Saskatchewan's population is now 1,033,381 people.<br><br>
The size each riding should be is 73,813 people.<br><br>
Percentage of House: Approximately 4 per cent.<br><br>
Percentage of Canada's population: Approximately 3 per cent.<br><br>
(<a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/justaprairieboy/" target="_hplink">Flickr: Just a Prairie Boy</a>)
Nova Scotia
Nova Scotia will gain no new seats under the Tory bill. The province currently has 11 seats.<br><br>
Nova Scotia's population is now 921,727 people.<br><br>
The size each riding should be is 73,813 people.<br><br>
Percentage of House: Approximately 3 per cent.<br><br>
Percentage of Canada's population: Approximately 3 per cent.<br><br>
(<a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/ojbyrne/" target="_hplink">Flickr: ojbyrne</a>)
New Brunswick
New Brunswick will gain no new seats under the Tory bill. The province currently has 10 seats.<br><br>
New Brunswick's population is now 751,171 people.<br><br>
The size each riding should be is 75,117 people.<br><br>
Percentage of House: Approximately 3 per cent.<br><br>
Percentage of Canada's population: Approximately 2 per cent.<br><br>
(Alamy)
Newfoundland And Labrador
Newfoundland and Labrador will gain no new seats under the Tory bill. The province currently has 7 seats.<br><br>
Newfoundland And Labrador's population is now 514,536 people.<br><br>
The size each riding should be is 73,505 people.<br><br>
Percentage of House: Approximately 2 per cent.<br><br>
Percentage of Canada's population: Approximately 1.5 per cent.<br><br>
(Alamy)
Prince Edward Island
P.E.I. will gain no new seats under the Tory bill. The province currently has 4 seats.<br><br>
P.E.I.'s population is now 140,204 people.<br><br>
The size each riding should be is 35,051 people.<br><br>
Percentage of House: Approximately 1 per cent.<br><br>
Percentage of Canada's population: Approximately 0.5 per cent.<br><br>
(<a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/neilwillsey/" target="_hplink">Flickr: n_willsey</a>)
She calls it a “transparent plan for gerrymandering.”
He calls it smart politics.
Like several ridings across the country, Saanich-Gulf Islands was a close race on election day, May 2, 201...
She calls it a “transparent plan for gerrymandering.”
He calls it smart politics.
Like several ridings across the country, Saanich-Gulf Islands was a close race on election day, May 2, 201...
The re-drawing of Canada’s electoral boundaries has the potential to play a major role in the next federal election. With population booming in the suburbs,...
Opposition parties are sounding the alarm about the redrawing of Canada’s electoral map, suggesting the Tories may hijack the process in order to create safe...
Canadians risk being sidelined from a major reconfiguration of the country’s electoral map by new rules brought in by the governing Tories that limit public...
HALIFAX - The Nova Scotia government is eroding minority rights by altering electoral boundary rules in a way that will hurt Acadians and African Nova...
OTTAWA - The country's fastest growing provinces are getting more MPs, but whether Canadian voters in big cities and suburbs — especially visible minorities —...
The MSM are ignoring this story. Why is the Parl Press Gallery afraid to tackle this story? The Ottawa media has become so compliant to the wishes of the Harper regime.
John_W_B: The MSM are ignoring this story. Why is the Parl
exactly what has been done by the liberals for years? changing riding boundaries to make their election more likely? where? my riding hasn't changed in my memory, so what are you talking about?
clarification1: exactly what has been done by the liberals for years?
The Tories have already demonstrated an apparent willingness to stack the deck to ensure the game comes out in their favour. If they you can't win a riding fairly by convincing more voters that your candidate is the best, then just make sure there will be less people voting for your opponent because they turned up at non-existent polling stations, or just redraw the riding so that there are no longer enough supporters in your riding to elect your opponent.
DearOhDear: The Tories have already demonstrated an apparent willingness to stack
I expect every seat that supposedly requires "redistribution" will conveniently be an Opposition riding, and that everyone of them will be gerrymandered to ensure the Cons a win next time.
Just another lesson they've learned so well from their Bush/Rove Republican consultants.
No dirty trick too low for the Conniving Cons!!
headstrong: I expect every seat that supposedly requires "redistribution" will conveniently
Harper will have to gerrymander his electoral districts. He will do anything to make sure he is returned to office but a great deal can happen in three years. Abortion debates expose the religulou nature of the conservatives (aka the reform party. They live in the ninteenth century but the problems we are living with are those of the twenty first century. Our only hope is that Harper et al will be raptured and the rest of us can get on with the business of trying to reconsitute the country we had before the Haper government gained power.
pinkibus: Harper will have to gerrymander his electoral districts. He will
Just for a laugh I decided to crunch some numbers.
There were 13,690,000 voters in 2008. That, divided by 308 Ridings is about 45,000 per. Lets say we have 4 national parties (combining the vote from the Greens and any regional groups as one) thats' only about 11,000 votes for each winning MP.
That means with 154 seats, won with 1,700,000 votes of the 13,690,000 of the potential 20,000,000 or so can give 100% of the power to one party.
But it gets worse...
In our centralized Commons the PM is the Boss. Period. In the NDP and Bloc teh leader is chosen by a opne party vote. I really have no idea how the Liberals are going to attempt it this time around. In the Conservative party the leadership role is decided by a closed vote of convention goers and the party brass. Say 10,000 votes tops, with a few 'super votes' who can tell globs of people who to vote for.
And thats a worst case scenario of Democracy in Canada.
Tyler_Austin: Just for a laugh I decided to crunch some numbers.
that term "partisan" is really getting grating, when you consider the history of that term in the Spanish, Greek and Yugoslav civil wars, and others......
What every good partisan in Spain did, of course, was kill every socialist/republican that they could. Interesting how that term "republican" meant something different there, also....
Skookum1: that term "partisan" is really getting grating, when you consider
Harper is showing like his Christian Conservatives in the GOP that democracy is fine as long as the enough of the right kind of voter votes. I am pretty sure that in the US the GOP laws targeting voter fraud is to ensure that the votes of Christian Conservatives tip the election scales. It is all about gutting safety nets so Christ is their for you in your time of personal crisis. It is is about less tax in exchange for more tithes. It is usurping our secular system and imposing a theocracy to safe us all from eternal damnation.
Don_McLeod: Harper is showing like his Christian Conservatives in the GOP
Who actually expects Harpergeddon to keep their fat fingers off, stand back and let professionals deal with the ridings? Not I. Given recent history it is simply not possible. The Republicans: Great White North edition are now slicing up our ridings.
yer: Who actually expects Harpergeddon to keep their fat fingers off,
When the winner takes all, many must lose, no matter how you slice it. You can't get fair outcomes from an unfair system. Canada needs a proportional voting system, and Elizabeth May and Bruce Hallsor both know it. Proportional representation would make every vote count, and let us put the boundaries wherever we need to in order to give representation to real geographic communities.
WayneSmith: When the winner takes all, many must lose, no matter
Loading comments… 
Posted: 04/27/2012 7:57 am Updated: 04/27/2012 11:24 am