Poll Suggest Conservatives And NDP In Dead Heat On Anniversary Of Election

CP  |  By Posted: 05/ 2/2012 11:46 am Updated: 05/ 2/2012 3:51 pm

OTTAWA - A new poll suggests the Conservatives and NDP are in a statistical tie for voter support one year after the federal election.

The Canadian Press-Harris Decima survey taken last week indicates the NDP has 33 per cent support while the Tories have 30 per cent.

But with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, support for the two parties could be equally split.

The poll of just over 1,000 people suggests support for the Tories has dropped from election day when they received 39.6 per cent of the popular vote.

The NDP's support appears virtually unchanged; in the May 2 election last year, they became official Opposition with 30.6 per cent of the popular vote.

The vote saw the Liberals sink to third-party status with 18.9 per cent of the vote, and the new poll suggests their support still hovers around that mark.

Related on HuffPost:

HAVE THE TORIES KEPT THEIR PROMISES?
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  • Have The Tories Kept Their Promises?

    The Conservative election platform in 2011, "Here for Canada," featured many campaign commitments.<br><br>One year into Harper's "strong, stable, majority Conservative government," how much has been accomplished? What still remains to be done?<br><br><em>With files from CBC</em><br><br>(Getty)

  • What They've Done

    The next five slides provide a list of what the Tories have accomplished in their first year.<br><br>(Getty)

  • Budget 2011 Measures

    Budget 2011 measures (rolled into the election platform after the original March budget did not pass, and all delivered again in the June budget):<br><br> - Hiring credit for small business -- offering a short-term break from EI payments for those who increase payrolls.<br><br> - Extension for: work-sharing program (helping employers avoid layoffs by providing part-time EI benefits); the "targeted initiative for older workers" (programs to help older unemployed workers); temporary accelerated capital cost allowance rate for manufacturing equipment; mineral exploration tax credit; ecoENERGY retrofit program for homes (one more year only.)<br><br>- Funding for: Canadian youth business foundation; Canada student loans program; 30 new industrial research chairs at Canadian colleges and polytechnics and ten new Canada excellence research chairs for universities; northern adult basic education program in territories; student loan forgiveness for medical professionals willing to work in rural/underserviced regions.<br><br>- Funding for: all-season road between Inuvik and Tuktoyaktuk (to complete Dempster highway); two new national parks in Labrador and urban Toronto; snowmobile trails; small-craft harbour repairs; plus support for an agricultural trade commissioner and market access secretariat to "expand international markets for farmers;" as well as funding for an "agriculture innovation initiative."<br><br>- Funding for: Royal Conservatory of Music (to launch a national examination system); Canada periodical (magazines) fund; "youth gang prevention fund" to support projects in high-need communities.<br><br>- Tax credits: children's arts (up to $500/child in qualified arts/culture programs); family caregiver tax credit ($2,000 for those caring for an infirm family member); volunteer firefighters; plus a top-up for guaranteed income supplement for low-income seniors.<br><br>- Phase-out of taxpayer subsidies to federal political parties.<br><br>(CP)

  • Other Economic Measures:

    - Government-wide spending review, as reflected in the 2012 budget, implementing over $5 billion in spending and job cuts across all federal departments and agencies, representing some 6.9 per cent of total government spending.<br><br>- Repeal of legislation forcing mandatory retirement at a specified age for workers in federally-regulated industries (effective Dec. 2012).<br><br>- Financial assistance (loans) to help immigrants get foreign credentials recognized (pilot announced Feb. 2012).<br><br>- "One-for-one" rule for business regulations arising from work of "red tape commission," now requiring government to eliminate a regulation for every new regulation implemented (effective April 1).- Successful bidders chosen for shipbuilding procurement strategy (Oct. 2011).<br><br>- "Single desk" monopoly of Canadian Wheat Board dismantled and farmer-elected board dismissed, enabling an open market for Prairie wheat and barley effective 2012 crop year.<br><br>- Pooled retirement pension plans implemented (Nov. 2011).<br><br>- "Helmets to hardhats" program to help military veterans find civillian work after deployments (announced Jan. 2012).<br><br>

  • Intergovernmental Affairs

    - 18 more First Nations signed on to the First Nations land management regime, opting out of land-related sections of the Indian Act (March 2012).<br><br>- Quebec sales tax harmonization agreement (signed in Sept. 2011).<br><br>- Increase health transfers to provinces by six per cent annually until 2017, with the rate tied to economic growth and adjusted for inflation after 2017 (platform pledged to not "cut transfer payments to individuals or to the provinces for essential things like health care, education, and pensions" while working "collaboratively with the provinces and territories to renew the Health Accord and to continue reducing wait times").<br><br>- Loan guarantee for Lower Churchill River hydro project (memorandum with Newfoundland and Labarador signed in Aug. 2011).<br><br>- Legislation to make the "gas tax fund" a permanent form of infrastructure funding to municipalities (passed Dec. 2011).<br><br>- Alberta's elected Senate nominee Betty Unger called to Senate in Jan. 2012 (no other provinces have elected Senate nominees eligible for appointment).<br><br>(Getty)

  • Justice Measures

    - <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/news/omnibus-crime-bill/?" target="_hplink">Omnibus crime legislation (C-10)</a>, which included new mandatory minimum sentences, stiffer penalties for drug crimes, stiffer penalties for child sex offenders, an end to house arrest/conditional sentences for a range of offences, elimination or delay in eligibility for pardons, stiffer sentences for repeat or violent young offenders, new roles for victims of crime in parole decisions, measures to protect vulnerable foreign workers, new criteria for the transfer of Canadians convicted of crimes abroad, and new measures to seek justice for victims of terrorism (received royal assent March 2012, within the "100 sitting days of Parliament" deadline pledged in the platform).<br><br>- "Wanted by the CBSA" web site launched, to help find and facilitate deportations of foreign criminals (July 2012, and ongoing).<br><br>- Employment insurance benefits for parents of murdered or missing children (announced April 13).<br><br>- Legislation to end the long-gun registry (received royal assent April 5, but implementation stalled, subject to court injunction in Quebec).<br><br>

  • Other Measures

    - Office of religious freedom created in department of foreign affairs, to monitor and promote religious freedom as part of Canadian foreign policy.<br><br>- Legislation to reallocate House of Commons seats to "restore fair representation" (C-20 received royal assent Dec. 2011).<br><br>(CP)

  • What They Haven't Done (Or Haven't Finished, Yet)

    The next six slides provide a list of what the Tories didn't get done during their first year.<br><br>(Getty)

  • Trade Deals And International Commitments

    - Canada-European free trade deal (pledged for 2012).<br><br>- Canada-India free trade deal (pledged for 2013).<br><br>- New border agreement with the United States encompassing trade, travel and security regulations (negotiations ongoing).<br><br>- Copyright Modernization Act (special committee reviewing C-11 reported back to House on March 15).<br><br>- Maternal and child health initiatives, to be implemented in collaboration with other countries (the "Muskoka Initiative," launched in Nov. 2010 - $82 million for specific Canadian projects announced in Sept. 2011 ).<br><br>- Post-combat efforts in Afghanistan, focused on "the education and health of children and youth; advancing security, the rule of law, and human rights; promoting regional diplomacy; and delivering humanitarian assistance."<br><br>(Getty)

  • Defence Commitments

    - F-35 stealth fighter jet purchase (a new secretariat will now oversee the procurement of replacement fighter jets for the CF-18s, following controversy surrounding the disclosed costs of the F-35 program).<br><br>- New air expeditionary wing at CFB Bagotville, including 250 new personnel by end of 2011 and 550 stationed there by 2015 (undisclosed number of personnel added last year to "establish core" of new expeditionary wing, minister's office says, and the government is "committed to adding personnel as the operational tempo permits").<br><br>(AP)

  • Economic/Budget Measures

    - Long-term plan or program, with municipalities and provinces, for building public infrastructure once the Building Canada plan expires in 2014.<br><br>- National securities regulator (Supreme Court ruled in December a national regulator would infringe on provincial jurisdiction, but federal efforts to negotiate a deal with the provinces continue).<br><br>- Income-splitting for families with children under 18 years of age -- allowing couples to share up to $50,000 in income (to be implemented when/if the federal deficit is eliminated).<br><br>- Children's fitness tax credit to be doubled and made refundable (contingent on eliminating federal deficit).<br><br>- Adult fitness tax credit (up to $500 of eligible activities, contingent on eliminating federal deficit).<br><br>- Tax-free savings accounts to see doubling of annual eligible savings, up to $10,000 (contingent on eliminating federal deficit).<br><br>- Employment insurance benefits for parents of gravely ill children (nothing announced to date).<br><br>- Relocation for the head office for the Canada economic development agency for Quebec regions "to a centre or centres appropriate to all regions of the province" (it's still in Montreal, and the minister's office says "we are at the stage where we are considering all of the options").<br><br>- Legislation to implement the Canada-Quebec accord on offshore resources (brief mention in text of 2012 budget).<br><br>- New national farm and food strategy (no announcement yet).<br><br>(Alamy)

  • Justice Measures

    - Anti-terrorism legislation to reinstate powers like preventative arrest and secret investigative hearings, and make it illegal to leave Canada to participate in terrorist-sponsored training or other activities (S-7 currently before Senate committee).<br><br>- Legislation to streamline the process for deporting foreign criminals, including the opportunities for appeal (not introduced yet, expected "in a few short months").<br><br>- Doubling of victim surcharge that convicted criminals must pay (bill C-37 introduced April 24).<br><br>- Legislation to combat elder abuse by adding it as an aggravating factor in sentencing (bill C-36 introduced March 15).<br><br>- Legislation to clarify self-defence and property rights/citizen's arrest provisions (bill C-26 concurred at report stage April 24).<br><br>- Legislation to "give law enforcement and national security agencies up-to-date tools to fight crime in today's high-tech communications environment" (bill C-30 introduced Feb. 14, but stalled after receiving negative feedback). The campaign platform pledged to fulfil this within "100 sitting days of Parliament," which suggests a March deadline, now passed.<br><br>- Measures to combat drug abuse in prisons (no announcement yet).<br><br>- End to sentencing discounts for multiple child sex offences and child pornography charges (no announcement yet).<br><br>- Mandatory jail sentences for those with repeat convictions for contraband tobacco, and a new RCMP anti-contraband force of 50 officers (no announcement yet).<br><br>- National action plan to combat human trafficking (no announcement yet, but private member's bill C-310 to amend the Criminal Code to strengthen measures against human trafficking passed at third reading in the House April 27 and is now before the Senate).<br><br>- New law enforcement mandate for Canada's Coast Guard, to allow them to enforce federal laws on oceans and the Great Lakes, including new armed capabilities on board Coast Guard vessels and armed boarding teams (no annoucement yet).<br><br>- Legislation to allow sentencing courts to order the deportation of convicted criminals upon completion of sentence or parole eligibility, and to remove the requirement of the prisoner's consent for transfer to complete a sentence abroad (no announcement yet).<br><br>(Alamy)

  • Environmental And Community Measures

    - National conservation plan (consultations currently underway at Commons environment committee).<br><br>- "Social impact bonds" to help raise money for worthwhile community projects (2012 budget said HRDSC was "exploring social finance instruments" for an announcement at a later date).<br><br>- Funding for a "volunteer-matching" service through Volunteer Canada (2012 budget ends federal funding for the national volunteer community service organization Katimavik).<br><br>- Defibrillators for every hockey rink in Canada, and training for using them (no announcement yet).<br><br>- Hunting advisory panel, to consult with environment minister on issues concerning hunting and fishing (no announcement yet).<br><br>- Review of the Species at Risk Act to ensure landowners receive fair compensation when their property is affected (no announcement yet, however the 2012 budget implementation bill does amend the Species at Risk Act).<br><br>(CP)

  • Senate Reform And Accountability Measures

    - Legislation to set term limits for senators and provide a framework for Senate elections (C-7 introduced June 2011 but has not progressed further -- and on May 1, Quebec government announced a constitutional challenge of this Senate reform bill).<br><br>- Legislation to publish the salaries of First Nations chiefs and councillors (C-27 introduced Nov. 2011 but has not progressed further).<br><br>- Measures to implement Canada's commitment to the "open government initiative" (ongoing).<br><br>(CP)


FOLLOW CANADA POLITICS

OTTAWA - A new poll suggests the Conservatives and NDP are in a statistical tie for voter support one year after the federal election.The Canadian Press-Harris Decima survey taken last week indicates ...
OTTAWA - A new poll suggests the Conservatives and NDP are in a statistical tie for voter support one year after the federal election.The Canadian Press-Harris Decima survey taken last week indicates ...
Filed by Michael Bolen  | 
 
 
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Donna Meness
www.findmaisyandshannon.com
12:07 PM on 05/29/2012
Mike Harris got nothing for being cited in Walkerton report for deaths after cutting WATER INSPECTORS, Tony Clement no consequences for Conservative Govt MASSIVE CUTS being cited in SARS report for deaths of 42 people incl. doctors, nurses! Harper no consequences for removing many democratic oversights & checks on his power, for Cadman bribery affair, for $Million elections funding violations, for proroguing parliament to avoid a confidence vote, for proroguing parl. to HIDE from H of C demand for doc’s for Torture, Abuse, Extraordinary Rendition of Afghan’s to be interrogated by our very own Conservative SS, aka CSIS?
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Marcus Davies
I'm still standing
11:01 PM on 05/02/2012
Polls are only snapshots that blur and change frequently, but what is more enduring is the Canadians' growing sense of unease with Mr. Harper's majority. As we daily witness the Government's ncreasing secretiveness and ill-spirited meanness in the face of valid criticism, we have come to learn that we like the Majority Harper even less than the minority one. Poll numbers may be a snapshot, but that sense of dismay lingers a long long time.
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Bumpers car
Fish till you die
08:51 AM on 05/03/2012
I have been thinking along the same lines now for a few months. It would appear that the Harper crew don't understand or even care that they are alienating more and more middle of the road Canadians every day and probably won't get many of us back for a second try. Canadians vote to punish, not to elect. This has been the case since Confederation and isn't going to change anytime soon. For a man who is currently promoting history, he sure doesn't understand this part of it.
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Mad Hatter 1
09:22 PM on 05/02/2012
As long as the Robo Calls are put on hold we might have a fair election.
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emphatico
....is politically radioactive.
08:25 PM on 05/02/2012
Very soon, you'd see Liberals defecting to the NDP......and the Left will be united and cru.sh Harper in the next election.
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GreenCanadian
is mixing the new record
10:29 PM on 05/02/2012
I hope you are correct.
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sonoffestus
Got smart & got out!
10:28 AM on 05/03/2012
Me too.
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Bumpers car
Fish till you die
09:06 AM on 05/03/2012
As much as I would like to see us back to a 2 party election, I doubt an amalgamation of the left would work under the current conditions. The NDP has too much of its base in Quebec. That is a problem for the rest of the country particularly, in parts of Ontario and the west. It might be enough to sway a big enough portion of the vote to stay with a Conservative platform and vote out of mistrust. It could also, depending how the Bloc and seperatist sentiment do, result in them losing a lot of support over the next couple of years. If (please God) Harper were to resign a year before the next round it might even persuade enough to give them a second chance at majority. The other scenario is if the Liberals ( Iknow, when pigs fly) elect a competent leader and actually show some credibility in their policies. This would bleed away a lot of NDP support and leave us where we were prior to the last election. Regardless, it is too early to call anyway but it will be an extremely interesting next two years. My hope is that the political map will have changed for the better by then.
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07:55 PM on 05/02/2012
Oda + MacKay- gone = rating will go UP.
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Simon Wagstaff
Friday the 13th comes on a Wednesday this month
07:44 PM on 05/02/2012
LOL, and Harris Decima is always Con biased ... you need thus to drop a few of the Cons points ..
06:25 PM on 05/02/2012
As an president Abraham Lincoln noted: “You may fool all the people some of the time, you can even fool some of the people all of the time, but you cannot fool all of the people all the time.” As a version of Straussian conservatism, Harperism is about fooling people. Mr. Harper cleverly gambled that he could fool enough people to get elected PM, and even eventually get a majority -- and he won. But politics based mainly on deception gives a short-term victory, with long-term pain for those fooled. As another president GW Bush clumsily tried to warn us: don't get fooled again!
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BCSLAVE
Got a key?
06:43 PM on 05/02/2012
Absolutely! Well said. May I use your quote with reference about Harperism is about being about fooling people...so true!
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BCSLAVE
Got a key?
06:23 PM on 05/02/2012
Well its about time people noticed the gangsters in power spending themselves drunk with our money.

Harper is the piano player at the brothel. "I don't know what's going on upstairs I just play the piano!"
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TonyOnly
Truth matters.
06:15 PM on 05/02/2012
When it comes to the country's finances:
the Conservatives believe the poor should pay,
the Liberals believe everybody should pay,
and the NDP don't understand why anybody should pay.
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emphatico
....is politically radioactive.
08:23 PM on 05/02/2012
....and I would guess that you are a Liberal.
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TonyOnly
Truth matters.
08:55 PM on 05/02/2012
...and I would guess for some, the truth hurts.
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Ansdlmol
05:04 PM on 05/02/2012
God help us if the NDP get into the power chair. As a loyal conservative I think Mr Harper should consider stepping aside but I suspect his ego will get in the way.
07:41 PM on 05/02/2012
Mr. Harper and the "Conservative" party are not Tory's nor Conservatives. They stole the name. They were and are "Reform". Very few East of Alberta would vote Reform, change to Alliance, didn't work. Aha, absorb Progressive Conservatives, call yourself "Conservative" and foolish folks vote for you. Gotta Shake Your Head!!!!!!
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turkeylurky
Just keepin it real........
04:38 PM on 05/02/2012
If this doesn't scare the crap out of Harper, nothing will.
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Kristopher Leang
training to take down the elite
05:06 PM on 05/02/2012
itll b nice to never have to see another ignorant comment from turkey blackrabbit or stan because their misinformation and propaganda will be of little consequence. We will have a government that actually does what it says, and looks to create a strong middle class (all facts Turkey point that the middle is shrinking, and our purchasing power is being quickly eroded, these are facts people are poorer now than ever). Canada will finally feel what being ruled by a true left winger is like, and they will like it.
05:39 PM on 05/02/2012
Terrible and not a shared perspective. Never have i ever heard that is the socialist left's responsibility for making the poor poorer, and the rich, richer. Stephen Harper is a neo-conservative, which like rob ford makes the hair stand up on the back of my neck. If you think that 39.6% of the popular vote is a majority well then enjoy your neo-con bubble the fact of the matter is that if Canada had proportional representation we would not be stuck with this fascist bloated, EXPENSIVE government, FYI you can be non partisan, conservative and believe in social development programs!!!
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Mr e MaN
Political Atheist
04:14 PM on 05/02/2012
Wait till the housing bubble pops drops and exposes the true weakness in the economy because we sold out our country and our childrens future.
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Transitteer
and another thing . . .
03:54 PM on 05/02/2012
Hope springs eternal. It would be nice in 2015 if we elected someone competent - would make for a nice change.
georgee2
My Canada Includes Everyone
03:39 PM on 05/02/2012
Everyone we need to keep the heat on the cons right up to 2015. So than we can give them the much deserved boot.
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Maria Korovessis Sewell
To decimate is to reduce by one tenth.
03:36 PM on 05/02/2012
Ah well, so much for the 'honeymoon' year... a foreshadowing of things to come Harper's way.