Vancouver Real Estate Cools – Could Toronto Be Next?

CBC  |  Posted: 05/04/2012 12:19 pm Updated: 05/07/2012 6:32 pm


Prices continue to rise in Canada's two largest real estate markets, but a closer look at the numbers shows two housing markets headed in different directions.


Both cities have been singled out by the Canadian Real Estate Association for either skewing the national numbers higher and lower in recent months. And both cities remain among the hottest real estate markets in the country.


And the similarities don't end there.


Resale prices move higher


On the surface, new data from real estate boards in the two markets shows prices for resale homes are indeed still rising. In Toronto, the average price of a resale home was $517,556 in April — an 8.5 per cent increase from the same month a year earlier.


The average price in Vancouver, meanwhile, was $683,800 in April, up 3.7 per cent compared to a year ago.


Rising prices are broadly perceived to be the surest sign of a buoyant housing market, but the number of homes sold — and the number of homes listed for sale — tell a different story.


In Vancouver, there were 2,799 sales on the Multiple Listings Service last month. That's a 13.2 per cent decline from the 3,225 homes sold the same month a year earlier. Indeed, the number of homes sold in April in Vancouver is the lowest total for that month since 2001, the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) noted in a release this week.


"Although April sales were below what's typical for the month, we continue to see … a balanced relationship between buyer demand and seller supply in our marketplace,” REBGV president Eugen Klein said.


Others are not so sure. Real estate analyst Ben Rabidoux with M Partners says the drop-off in sales even as more homes come on the market is a trend worth noting. New Vancouver listings totaled 6,056 in April, more than double the number of homes sold and a 3.6 per cent increase on the level a year earlier.


The new listings figure is 6.7 per cent above the 10-year average for the month.


"This is something I've been watching for a while," Rabidoux said. "Inventory is ratcheting up even as sales are falling."


An increase in listings can sometimes be a sign of a market top, as people are eager to sell to lock in gains they've earned in a widely acknowledged strong housing market.


If the level of willing buyers for all those new listings can't keep up, it can create a buyer's market with more sellers than buyers. Prices are still in positive territory but that's unlikely to continue if such a large gap between buyers and sellers persists.


Contrast that with Toronto, where the number of sales continues to increase at a rapid pace — up 18 per cent to 10,350 in April. Yet the number of listings was up by almost as much, nearly 15 per cent to 16,436.


An increase in listings is a relatively new trend in Toronto, and it mirrors what happened in Vancouver about a year ago, Rabidoux notes. "It hasn't been substantial enough to make a dent yet, but it's noteworthy because that's what happened in Vancouver," he said. "Listings took off before sales died."


To be sure, a change in the market's overall direction isn't showing up yet in prices. The numbers suggest there's still ample demand for housing in Canada's largest city.


"Interest in single-detached homes has been very high, both in the City of Toronto and surrounding regions," Toronto Real Estate Board president Richard Silver said. Prices for detached homes in the GTA were up nine per cent in the month, TREB noted in a release this week.


If there's any weakness in the Toronto market, it's likely in the condo sector, Rabidoux said. The average price of a condo across the 416 and 905 area codes was $339,978 in April, up four per cent.


Finance Minister Jim Flaherty noted the city's condo market was one of the government's primary concerns in wanting to rein in control of Canada's national housing agency last week.


On a square-foot basis, new condo prices actually declined in Toronto in the first quarter of 2012. That's the first time that's happened since 2009, Rabidoux said.


"Condos are usually the canary in the coal mine," he said. "The whole Toronto story feels like it's been recycled from Vancouver 18 months ago."


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    This four-bedroom, two-bathroom custom-built bungalow in St. John's West End neighbourhood boasts hardwood floors, a covered sundeck and an oversized yard. With an asking price of $349,900 and 2,750 square feet of livable space, this spacious home costs approximately $125 per square foot.

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    This spacious split-level home in southeast Winnipeg features four bedrooms and three baths, a stone fireplace and a jazuzzi in the master bedroom. It sits on a 142-foot-long, pie-shaped lot. At 2,182 square feet and a $349,900 asking price, it works out to around $160 per square foot. <strong>CORRECTION:</strong> <em>An earlier version of this slide incorrectly listed the price-per-square foot as $600</em>.

  • Red Deer, Alta. -- $248 Per Square Foot

    This five-bedroom, three-bath home features vaulted ceilings, a fireplace and a massive walk-in closet in the master bedroom. At 1,408 square feet -- this average-sized house on the prairie works out to $248 per square foot.

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    This two-story townhouse condo just east of downtown Montreal features three bedrooms and two baths, cherry wood floors and a terrace. At 1,400 square feet and an asking price of $349,000, this condo works out to $250 per square foot.

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    This cozy bungalow on the edges of the Greater Toronto Area features four bedrooms, two baths and a long, 175-foot lot. Highlights include a granite countertop and newly finished hardwood floors. At a snug 900 square feet, this house is going for $388 per square foot.

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    This one-bedroom, one-bath condo in Toronto's Entertainment District features a balcony with a southeast exposure. In a sure sign the condo is outfitted with just the basics, the unit's sellers boast of its "brand name appliances" and "frost free refrigerator." At 700 square feet (including the balcony), it works out to $499 per square foot.

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    This one-bedroom, one-bathroom corner unit in Vancouver's Kitsilano neighbourhood "shows much larger than the square footage," the realtor boasts. That's good, because at 508 square feet, this place is only slightly larger than some of the bedrooms and living rooms available in similarly-priced houses in other markets. The condo boasts "gorgeous mountain views," but it'll cost you -- $688 per square foot.

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Prices continue to rise in Canada's two largest real estate markets, but a closer look at the numbers shows two housing markets headed in different directions. Both cities hav...
Prices continue to rise in Canada's two largest real estate markets, but a closer look at the numbers shows two housing markets headed in different directions. Both cities hav...
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04:59 PM on 05/06/2012
I'm looking at demographics. Baby boomer downsizing and looming demise. Maybe with a lack immigration policy the McMansion will fill up.
Fortunately, I'm a BB and will be dead.
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Leader Newworldparty
11:50 AM on 05/05/2012
Housing is the most manipulated market in the world.

As explained here (in bottom half for Canada):

http://www.newworldparty.org/2011/04/housing-most-manipulated-market-in.html

this bubble was created by politicians/government. The younger generation should all rally and be furious at how they've been driven to the poor house.
11:38 AM on 05/05/2012
There is no bubble. People have been predicting a bubble for more than a year. I guess they figure if they say it often enough eventually they will be right.

Look at the graphs especially Toronto, almost straight line growth. Not saying there may be a down turn but I really doubt that it will be a steep (rapid) drop.

Toronto condo numbers really just reflect a change in the housing market there. Almost all new rental units are condos. If you look at city growth the increase in condo inventory was marginally more last year. If the inventory does increase at higher rates than growth then likely there will be a downturn in that sector of the market. Although some of this will be accounted for by the trend to condo from single unit.
01:54 AM on 05/05/2012
Understand just one fact about the housing bubble in Canada's big cities. It is about Asian imports, specifically Chinese business people buying in Canada. This is what is driving the scene.
Why are they coming here?

Two reasons. First, the speculative aspect. They view Vancouver as Hong Kong East. They put 10 percent down and wait for the vacant property to up in price ... gambling.

Second, and the more important reason. China is growing rapidly and is, as rapidly becoming an unlivable, polluted, nightmare. These are environment 'refugees' arriving in Vancouver with their cheque books. These are people, who run businesses and make big money in the China boom... but are astute enough to realize that in less than 10 years the place will become all but unlivable.

Is it any wonder that, being financially well off, they wouldn't want to live in a place where their
pampered kids can grow up in clean, safe enviroment?

A somewhat similar situation happened in the sixties when the Berlin wall went up. Canada received a floor of rich Germans buying up real estate here... cheap... to provide long term security. Different reasons and a different type of real estate, the Germans bought rural land mostly, but the same result.
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08:41 PM on 05/04/2012
I'm not sure more houses, fewer sale on the market really can be a sign of a huge devaluation in property prices to come. Might mean the rapid increase in sale prices have slowed or flattened out, I don't think it likely that homes in the GTA or GVan are going to suddenly be worth drastically less in a few years. I wouldn't hold your breath that in a while houses with be seeing at 50c on the dollar like the Mcmansions of suburban LA and OC. I think those who predict the bubble's about to pop are suffering from wishful thinking.
05:46 PM on 05/04/2012
Thomas Paine warned in a 1786 pamphlet:

“There are a set of men who go about making purchases on credit, and buying estates they have not wherewithal to pay for; and having done this, their next step is to fill the newspapers with paragraphs of the scarcity of money and the necessity of a paper emission, then to have a legal tender under the pretense of supporting its credit, and when out, to depreciate it as fast as they can, get a deal of it for little price, and cheat their creditors; and this is the concise history of paper money schemes.”
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piceaglauca
The picture says it all....
05:22 PM on 05/04/2012
They can sink where they want but realistically if you want a three bedroom house on a fair sized lot say 60x120 in a quiet neighbourhood near schools, stores and bus service with good crime prevention and social serivces such as a pool, library etc., you arent going to drop below $400 000. Right now these 1600 sq ft bungalows go for $700 000 and that's without the bidding.
04:16 PM on 05/04/2012
Vancouver is still suffering from the great foreign-investor-property-buy-up of 1999. The prices there are unsustainable and ridiculously inflated, Toronto doesn't have this problem.
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piceaglauca
The picture says it all....
05:24 PM on 05/04/2012
The Chinese and Indians to name two out number us and there is always someone who can afford to buy. Only when Canada decides to look more closely at foreign investment will prices in these locations adjust. Right now the cost of these houses won't drop much and the Canadian born looking for a job will never be able to buy into this makret. Maybe inherit into this market but never, ever buy into this market.
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cinderelladressmaker
10:17 PM on 05/04/2012
You are so right! Thank you!
11:43 AM on 05/05/2012
It's an interesting thought but if you compare Vancouver housing prices with similar sized cities around the world its real estate suddenly looks quite affordable.
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Mr e MaN
Political Atheist
02:51 PM on 05/04/2012
Vancouver is just staring its downward slide. American real estate is still failing after 5 YEARS.
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piceaglauca
The picture says it all....
05:27 PM on 05/04/2012
What do you consider to be a drop? A million dollar home dropping to $700 000? Big deal. The cost is beyond the purchase of most local people. All that will do will be to allow more Chinese to buy what Canadians can never afford.
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Mike Keohane
09:52 PM on 05/04/2012
If a Canadian saved 40% of his income like a Chinese person did, a Canadian could afford afford to buy whatever a Canadian wanted to afford.
11:42 AM on 05/05/2012
One month does not a trend make.

The US market is vastly different than the Canadian. As a start Canada does not suffer from nearly as large a group of over leveraged home owners. Nor are the hot markets nearly as hot as those in the US. It also helps that the Canadian economy continues to enjoy slow but consistent growth.
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Mr e MaN
Political Atheist
11:56 AM on 05/05/2012
Wrong on most every account. There are years of 0 down, 40 year amortizations, on homes that are WAY over priced about the US multiples 11x salary in vancouver. all insured by us(cmhc) just like Fannie/Freddie

Then there are the constant warnings over the record high debt levels. Recipe for trouble. The economy is weak and layoffs are just starting. But time will tell just don't
Say you were not warned