TSX Stock Prices: Trouble Likely Ahead As Economic Recovery Shows Signs Of Sputtering

CP  |  By Posted: 05/06/2012 6:00 am Updated: 05/09/2012 5:24 pm

TORONTO - The Toronto stock market likely faces more headwinds this week after further indications of slowing job growth added to worries that the economic recovery is running out of steam.

Traders will also be looking to how Canadian job creation fared in April after data last week showed the economy stalling out in February.

The TSX sustained its biggest weekly loss for 2012, down 2.99 per cent amid sliding commodity prices as traders dealt with official word that Spain had landed back in recession, data showing slowing manufacturing growth in the eurozone and China and a much poorer than expected performance in the American non-manufacturing sector during April.

The week was capped by Friday's announcement that the U.S. economy only managed to create 115,000 jobs during April, far less than the 160,000 that economists expected. Friday's steep, triple-digit tumble left the TSX down 0.7 per cent year to date.

"And there’s a connection between what’s going on in the observable data which has shown at a minimum a loss of momentum. The momentum that we saw in the US economic recovery coming into 2012 has definitely subsided," said Andrew Pyle, investment adviser with ScotiaMcLeod in Peterborough, Ont.

"Clearly the pace of the recovery has slipped and I think that is being reflected in the market because other than the fact we had a really nice recovery in stocks at the end of April, we’re still seeing a lack of follow-through, a lack of momentum in equities."

Pyle also noted that there are worries about a parallel between 2012 and the last two years when markets started the year off strong but faltered.

"And I’m wondering if there is an anxiety out there in the marketplace, is it going to be a three-peat?" he said.

"And that would tend to reduce momentum in the market, it definitely would depress conviction and at the very far end of the extreme, if you had enough number to kind of justify that concern or anxiety, it actually becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy and equities start to roll over as we make our way through May."

The resource-intensive TSX suffered from a slide in commodities last week as prices for oil and copper retreated on demand concerns. Oil closed below US$100 for the first time since February and copper fell 10 cents, or almost three per cent.

Traders also looked to the release of the Canadian April employment report on Friday. But no one expects the economy to match the burst of job creation during March that saw 82,000 jobs created.

"We suspect that it will come right back to earth in April and we’ll just get modest gains," said Doug Porter, deputy chief economist at BMO Capital Markets.

"I certainly wouldn’t rule out a partial reversal, that was one of the biggest job gains on record we had in March and I don’t think any other variable out there would corroborate that strength."

He noted the economy is growing but not by much.

In fact, in the latest read on growth, Statistics Canada said last Monday the economy actually shrank by 0.2 per cent during February.

"So I think we will do well to get a 10,000 job gain in April, and given the volatility in numbers, I wouldn’t rule out a small retracement, a small pullback in jobs."

Economic concerns tended to overshadow a series of positive earnings reports last week from BCE Inc. (TSX:BCE), insurer Manulife Financial (TSX:MFC), Suncor Energy (TSX:SU) and Barrick Gold Corp. (TSX:ABX).

It is another heavy week for Canadian earnings with food company and Loblaw (TSX:L) majority share owner George Weston (TSX:WN) on Tuesday, home improvement retailer Rona (TSX:RON), HudBay Minerals (TSX:HBM) and Tim Hortons (TSX:THI) and pipeline company Enbridbge (TSX:ENB) Wednesday. Insurer Sun Life Financial (TSX:SU) and Canadian Tire (TSX:CTC.A) report on Thursday.

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TORONTO - The Toronto stock market likely faces more headwinds this week after further indications of slowing job growth added to worries that the economic recovery is running out of steam.Traders wil...
TORONTO - The Toronto stock market likely faces more headwinds this week after further indications of slowing job growth added to worries that the economic recovery is running out of steam.Traders wil...
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Norma Ward
07:32 AM on 05/07/2012
Here is an article that shows that Canada's recovery since the Great Recession has been vastly overstated. Canada's real per capita GDP has actually declined by 1.4 percent, putting our economy's performance in the middle of the OECD pack.

http://viableopposition.blogspot.com/2012/02/has-canadas-economic-recovery-been.html

As well, on a per capita basis, Canada's employment level has actually dropped by 1.2 percentage points since prior to the Great Recession.
04:42 PM on 05/06/2012
Let's hope the stock market at sometimes starts to actually reflect the health of the Market like it was originally designed to do, at present it absorbs too many components that really are not reflective of health but of instantaneous Speculation. At present I hope it burns.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Warren Yuill
Jesus Built My Hot-Rod
02:28 PM on 05/06/2012
The elections in France is whats got everyone nervous.
If Sarkozy loses, a new government will get the lowdown on France's real economic strength or lack thereof when they get the real numbers.
This could trigger some major upheavals in French public service unions, goverment programs and undermine the stability of their central bank.
Proof to be revealed in the creme brule.
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Thalin Lea
02:27 PM on 05/06/2012
The stock market is just a world of speculation and Casino gambling. If CEOs and Bankers keep pocketing the profits of yearly markets gains in apparent huge bonuses , then what is the deal of investing ? wake up people, your information (sold between financial institutions ) and your money, is not safe anywhere these days..
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
rotary
canucklehead
02:16 PM on 05/06/2012
The huge wave of US mortgage resets for 2012 is almost over. Rates are still low and people locked in. Even if the eurozone continues to tank, American growth will offset a huge index plumit. I don't see another huge crash any time soon.
12:17 PM on 05/06/2012
there is no such thing as a bad stock market -------prices go up and prices go down -----

-there are plenty of ways to play both directions ----

get rid of the mentality that says up is good-----down is bad -------
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albertarick
These are questions for wise men with skinny arms
03:15 PM on 05/06/2012
All reasons not to invest in the first place. At the base of the stock markets irrational froth are real companies with real employees. They are often the biggest victims when things go south, and seldom get any piece of the action on the way up.
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Mad Hatter 1
11:58 AM on 05/06/2012
If this is such a scam, imagine that. They know what going to happen this week. I guess the same five guys got the memo. I see lots of money being made for a select few...

Nouriel Roubini (born March 29, 1959) is an American economist. He anticipated the collapse of the United States housing market and the worldwide recession which started in 2008.

Roubini's critical economic views have earned him the nicknames "Dr. Doom" and "permabear" in the media.[1] In 2008, Fortune magazine wrote, "In 2005 Roubini said home prices were riding a speculative wave that would soon sink the economy

I have some info about the markets, this is not a secret, a few know the truth and even less have come clean. Another crash is on the way and it will make 2008 look like a walk in the park. This will be the big one, and when it hits you better a game plane.

Global Stock Selloff: Is another financial crisis coming?
By MICHAEL SCHUMAN

If European sovereign debt is the ticking time bomb. Greece may not be Lehman but crises in Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Spain and Italy could add up to something just as scary as the 2008 Wall Street meltdown,

Deregulations and no oversight will once again toss the world into financial abyss.
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albertarick
These are questions for wise men with skinny arms
11:29 AM on 05/06/2012
Get out of the stock markets now. The banks are pulling their bailout funds out of the market to fund safer government debt which will soon be paying higher interest around the world. Sell now or sell for less.
12:20 PM on 05/06/2012
also tax day has passed so those selling now and cashing profits are delaying the tax burden on the gain for a year