Poll Suggests NDP Making Gains At Expense Of Tories

CP  |  By Posted: 05/10/2012 4:05 am Updated: 05/10/2012 9:37 am

Ndp Poll Conservatives Harris Decima
The Canadian Press Harris Decima survey indicates that the NDP have 34 per cent of popular support, compared to 30 per cent for the Conservatives. (CP)

OTTAWA - A new poll suggests the New Democrats are widening their support across the country.

The Canadian Press Harris Decima survey indicates that the NDP have 34 per cent of popular support, compared to 30 per cent for the Conservatives.

With a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points, support for the two parties could be equally split.

Still, the poll indicates that the New Democrats have become competitive in traditional Tory areas.

Among rural Canadians, the poll suggests the New Democrats have 31 per cent support, compared to 35 per cent for the Tories.

The NDP appear to have the support of 36 per cent of urban and suburban men, a number that has risen steadily since February.

Meanwhile, the Conservatives are seeing their support in that demographic appear to hover around 29 per cent, down from close to 40 per cent four months ago.

As well, the New Democrats appear to have supplanted the Liberals as the natural party among women, said Allan Gregg, chairman of Harris Decima.

"Remember this is a party that a decade ago, half the electorate said they would "never" vote for," he said.

"To broaden their base as we see in these data is quite remarkable."

Overall, the Liberals continue to hold steady at 20 per cent support, the poll suggests.

Just over 2,000 Canadians were polled for the survey in the last week of April and first week of May.

The period marked ongoing controversy of the price tag for fighter jets as well as the introduction of the Conservatives' controversial omnibus budget implementation bill.

But it also saw the anniversary of the 2011 federal election which returned the Conservatives with their majority government.

The election resulted in the NDP surge into Opposition status thanks to a record number of MPs being elected in Quebec.

In that province, the party's fortunes appear to be sliding following a spike after the election of new leader Tom Mulcair.

Related on HuffPost:

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  • Little-Known Mulcair Facts

    Here are some facts you may not have known about NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair. (CP)

  • 10. He Used To Be A Liberal

    <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Mulcair" target="_hplink">Mulcair was Minister of Sustainable Development, Environment and Parks</a> in Jean Charest's Liberal government in Quebec. He served in the role from 2003-2006. (CP)

  • 8. He's French (Kind Of)

    Mulcair married Catherine Pinhas in 1976. She was born in France to a Turkish family of Sephardic Jewish descent. <a href="http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1158289--thomas-mulcair-s-wife-catherine-a-psychologist-and-political-confidante?bn=1" target="_hplink">Mulcair has French citizenship through his marriage</a>, as do the couple's two sons. (KENZO TRIBOUILLARD/AFP/Getty Images)

  • 7. They Used To Be Friends

    <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Mulcair" target="_hplink">Mulcair left Charest's Liberal government in Quebec </a>after he was offered the position of Minister of Government Services in 2006, an apparent demotion from Minister of the Environment. Mulcair has said his ouster was related to his opposition to a government plan to transfer land in the Mont Orford provincial park to condo developers. (CP)

  • 6. Ancestor Was Premier Of Quebec

    Mulcair's great-great-grandfather on his mother's side was <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Honor%C3%A9_Mercier" target="_hplink">Honoré Mercier, the ninth premier of Quebec</a>. (Public Domain/Bibliothèque et Archives nationales du Québec)

  • 5. First!

    <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Mulcair" target="_hplink">Mulcair was the first New Democrat to win a riding in Quebec during a federal election</a>. He held the riding of Outremont during the 2008 election after first winning the seat in a 2007 by-election. Phil Edmonston was the first New Democrat to win a seat in Quebec, but his win came in a 1990 by-election. Robert Toupin was the very first to bring a Quebec seat to the NDP, but he did it in 1986 by crossing the floor. (Alamy)

  • 4. He's Half Irish.

    <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Mulcair" target="_hplink">Mulcair's father Harry Donnelly Mulcair was Irish-Canadian</a> and his mother Jeanne French-Canadian. His father spoke to him in English and his mother in French -- explaining his fluency in both official languages. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)

  • 3. He Votes In France

    Muclair has voted in past French elections, but says that now that he is leader of the Official Opposition <a href="http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1157191" target="_hplink">he will not take part in the upcoming French presidential vote</a>. (Thinkstock)

  • 2. Young Love At First Sight

    <a href="http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1158289--thomas-mulcair-s-wife-catherine-a-psychologist-and-political-confidante?bn=1" target="_hplink">Mulcair met his future wife at a wedding when they were both teenagers</a>. Catherine was visiting from France. They married two years later when they were both 21. (CP)

  • 1. Mr. Angry

    <a href="http://www2.macleans.ca/2012/03/16/thomas-mulcair-is-mr-angry/" target="_hplink">Mulcair was given the moniker in a Maclean's headline</a>, but the new leader of the NDP has long been known for his short fuse. In 2005, he was fined $95,000 for defamatory comments he made about former PQ minister Yves Duhaime on TV. The comments included French vulgarity and an accusation that alleged influence peddling would land Duhaime in prison.

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OTTAWA - A new poll suggests the New Democrats are widening their support across the country.The Canadian Press Harris Decima survey indicates that the NDP have 34 per cent of popular support, compare...
OTTAWA - A new poll suggests the New Democrats are widening their support across the country.The Canadian Press Harris Decima survey indicates that the NDP have 34 per cent of popular support, compare...
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
samhaydenjr
10:51 PM on 05/11/2012
Just did a pedantic review of the last election's results and compared it with the provincial/regional results of this poll. If the swings indicated for each individual province/region were to be evenly applied within each one respectively, I estimate the NDP would gain about 50 seats outside of Quebec, about 40 at the expense of the Conservatives and the rest from the Liberals. Within Quebec, the Bloc would probably pick up about 5 seats from the NDP. So the NDP would be the minority government and would be close to a majority.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
jfjoubert
Le pire n'est pas toujours certain.
10:42 PM on 05/13/2012
" I estimate the NDP would be the minority government and would be close to a majority. "

That's interesting... but coming from Québec, and seeing how fragile in fact its base is here... (the Bloc is leading now and most agree the incredible surge was due to Jack, Mulcair has yet to show he can compete) Bloc gaining 5...is perhaps a bit on the low side.
But the NDP could lose many more regardless of who takes up those ridings... what I see then is that they are close but still no majority. So is it mathematically virtually impossible to beat the Conservatives now that Quebec has lost ridings overall and cannot affect the vote like before 2012? What are the solutions then?
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
samhaydenjr
10:43 AM on 05/14/2012
I admit that my estimations are based on a number of assumptions that will likely not hold for the next four years. And, yes, their Quebec support may be soft. But the surge appears to have given them enough of a cushion to protect most of their seats from Bloc gains since the election (if they consolidate their current support levels). This is how I figured this out. This poll shows a drop in NDP support of about 4% and a gain for the Bloc of about 4.5% (a total swing to the Bloc of 8.5%). So I went to riding results page of Wikipedia and checked the gap in each individual riding and found that a swing of 8.5%, applied evenly across Quebec (another assumption, admittedly) would lead to the Bloc only picking up five seats. This number surprised me but I will note that there would also be a handful of ridings that would become absolute squeakers and that the Bloc would be competitive in a bunch of others. As regards where the NDP can pick up the seats to gain a majority, according to this poll, they would replicate their Quebec dominance across Atlantic Canada (where they hold 6 of 32 seats), would take over half the seats in BC, (where they have 12 of 36), would really start gaining seats in Man/Sask (they now hold only 2 of 28) and would continue to make gains in Ontario.
05:29 PM on 05/10/2012
good stuff keep attacking harpo and his cronies ,don't ever give up as we've seen in the past sic em mulcair............
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02:25 PM on 05/10/2012
If the other polls are correct, and most Canadians believe that the NDP better represent the values of Canadians, then I think it really boils down to them really pushing the agenda that they're a more fiscally sound party than usually believed. If they can withstand the accusations of pinko and communist, Canada might see a brighter day sooner rather than later.

Shouldn't be too hard actually, since the Conservatives only got voted in based on the idea that they're the sound economical choice. I'm sorry I ever voted for them. Never again.
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NTodd
Aude Sapere
03:07 PM on 05/10/2012
I'm not sure that, at this point, the NDP has to come across as "fiscally sound" OR as "not commie". All they have to do is be "Not HarperCons" and they will probably win.

At this point, the devil himself could run in an election and beat the HarperCons -- and Canadians would see it as an improvement (and they'd probably be right).
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
ProgressiveCDN
A Progressive Moderate
01:46 PM on 05/10/2012
I think we can all agree that Harper will never know a majority again. But, the only way we get him and his cronies out of office is if all Progressives work together whether the moderates with the Liberals or the leftists with the NDP. There needs to be a way for us to do more harm to Harper than we do to ourselves by splitting the vote and handing him seats... again.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
djelimon17
what's this thing for?
04:00 PM on 05/10/2012
I'd say Cullen would be the person to talk to about that in the NDP camp, but not sure who his counterpart would be in the Liberal camp
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Jack Hope
Occasionally quoted by Mainstream Media
05:13 PM on 05/10/2012
The Liberals are going to have to be the ones to come to the table on that one. And be willing to accept that they will be the junior partner in any cooperation scheme, in other words they will be supporting an NDP Prime Minister and an NDP led cabinet.

Don't count on any kind of merger though, even among pro-cooperation forces most of us draw the line well short of merging with the Liberals. The NDP has no need to marry itself to Liberal weakness.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
ProgressiveCDN
A Progressive Moderate
05:22 PM on 05/10/2012
Yes, at this time it seems counter-intuitive for the NDP to work with the Liberals... Yet, I hold out hope that the future of Canada is more important than partisan bickering.

Mulcair was once a Liberal & Rae was once an NDP... I see no reason why they shouldn't merge, but I guess that's just crazy talk.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
mravka
The world has gone completely mad.
01:04 PM on 05/10/2012
Too bad there isn't a federal election today. We have to live with tr@sh leading the nation for the next FOUR F!(#&* YEARS.
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01:45 PM on 05/10/2012
Whatever the neo-cons do can be undone. Canadians must have the resolve and good sense to reject them and their corporate policies at the polls. Solidarity for Peace and Prosperity! Today is the day to prepare for the next election.
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Nathan Ottenson
The Christian Right are neither
07:18 PM on 05/10/2012
Problem is it takes decades to build the kind of progressive policies that we have come to expect in Canada and it's only taking the neo-cons one year to start ripping them down.
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Jesusocialist
Austerity Is Fealty. Power To The Poor.
02:39 PM on 05/10/2012
I'd support a general strike aimed at catalyzing a new election.
12:46 PM on 05/10/2012
There is so much right wing American money behind this regime. They are prepared to every unethical thing to maintain power, so I'm pretty depressed about the future of this once great country.
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Unsui
You callin' my Bio micro?!
07:51 PM on 05/11/2012
I lived under the rule of Dick Cheney's oil cabal for eight years here in the US, and I can assure you that your fears are justified. I am sorry to say that you can look forward to the same political tactics that have proven so successful for the Right here. They will try to divide you with wedge issues, they will tell lies (and the newspapers that they "influence" will swear to them). You are a better educated people than most in the US but they will pit you one against the other and use Alberta's economic power to move their agenda. I do wish my Canadian neighbors good luck and hope you can stand form to hold on to your fine progressive traditions.
10:55 PM on 05/11/2012
Thank you for your kind words. The Harper regime is so secretive, that I fear too many Canadians do not know what he's up to. People are starting to figure it out, but all the dirty tricks from Karl Rove's playbook, and a bottomless pit of Koch brothers and other neocon's money keeps flowing into their coffers. By the time they gerrymander the riding, and suppress voters, we may not be able to get them out in another three years. Problem is, in three years, there will be so much damage done, that it will take at least ten to reverse it. I can't believe this is happening! Every day there is a new heinous action by this regime.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Tony frm Banff
Search for truth,not spin
12:22 PM on 05/10/2012
The cons have and are losing there credibility to govern. What with attacking seniors to be, and the big attack on enviromental groups that is now proving to be a big lie and scare tactic.

Wake up Canada!! we saw these scare tactics employed by that US government of Bush and Cheney, and it made the US the laughing stock of the western world.

Too scare the electorate is to say you do not reallly have a plan to govern, and implement policies. This government is governing on fear and ideology, and not on rational thought.
12:38 PM on 05/10/2012
come next election after harper has pretty much destroyed the canada i was born in, the big u.s. money will come rolling in again to prop up the harpo junta

and

the cons will bribe cdn voters with some silly GST type cut and plunge canada even further into the dark ages
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
arkymorgan
Nobody knows the trouble I've been...
11:47 AM on 05/10/2012
Untested Scanners rushed into use to further annoy, endanger and harass ordinary Canadian travelers. Accusations of ''money-laundering'' by environmental groups shown to be a pack of lies. The new crime bill unnecessarily targetting and punishing small-time pot offenders.

All of this on a single Thursday morning, after weeks of similarly embarassing and damaging reports of hardline, rightwing and punitive policies run amok, and now this: The NDP are poised to outstrip the Tories in popularity, and rather quickly, too.

It'll be justice, of a sort, eventually, but there will be nothing poetic about it.
11:25 AM on 05/10/2012
As more Canadians 'wake up' to how radical, bizarre and mean-spirited this Harperite government is, it will become increasingly embarrassing to admit that one voted for them or supports them. This will have a snowball effect; and one big dilemma for the Harperites is that they are arrogant and ideologically driven to be contemptuous of Canada's traditionally 'progressive' values and institutions -- and have a leader who reinforces this contemptuous attitude and behaviour. It is hard to imagine now any reasonable scenario by which the Harperites can regain a measure of respect or support near the 40% majority level.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
gravescanada
11:10 AM on 05/10/2012
The support, it keeps growing and growing. So much for it being a temporary thing. Mulcair can and will keep the governments feet to the fire.
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patrickwwalker
10:12 AM on 05/10/2012
As long as the NDP is in power when the economy finally goes belly up. The Reformatories have to OWN the economy completely. Nothing they have done has done anything, except making the executives of large firms more able to bleed wealth from their organizations via lower corporate tax cuts.