Dutch Disease Study: Harper Government Funded Research Favouring Argument They Ridiculed From Thomas Mulcair

CP  |  By Posted: Updated: 05/21/2012 11:25 am

Dutch Disease Study Conservatives
The Harper government has funded research that argues Canada's economy suffers from so-called Dutch Disease, an economic theory the prime minister and other senior officials ridiculed when raised recently by NDP Leader Tom Mulcair. (CP)

OTTAWA - The Harper government has funded research that argues Canada's economy suffers from so-called Dutch Disease, an economic theory the prime minister and other senior officials ridiculed when raised recently by NDP Leader Tom Mulcair.

Industry Canada paid $25,000 to three academics to produce the lengthy study, which is about to be published in a prestigious journal, Resource and Energy Economics.

The department also helped the trio build a database so they could investigate Dutch Disease, the theory that a resource boom that drives up the value of a country's currency can damage the manufacturing sector.

The paper, "Does the Canadian Economy Suffer from Dutch Disease?," concludes that a third or more of job losses in Canada's manufacturing sector can be attributed to resource-driven currency appreciation.

"We show that between 33 and 39 per cent of the manufacturing employment loss that was due to exchange rate developments between 2002 and 2007 is related to the Dutch Disease phenomenon," says the study.

The research, more than 18 months in the making, was carried out in part by Serge Coulombe, an economics professor at the University of Ottawa, who says Industry Canada was highly supportive of his work.

"At the time, they were interested in knowing about the issue," he said Friday in an interview, noting the final paper was subject to a "very deep external refereeing process."

"This paper has been presented at Industry Canada ... and they have helped us assemble the database."

The contract to produce the Dutch Disease paper ran from 2008 to 2009, and allowed the three authors to publish the work rather than have it remain internal to Industry Canada, which Coulombe said would have raised questions about its neutrality.

A spokeswoman for Industry Minister Christian Paradis said the study does not reflect the views of the Harper government.

"Unlike Mr. Mulcair, our government believes resource development is an important component of the economy and creates hundreds of thousands of direct, indirect and induced jobs, as well as contributing heavily to equalization payments," Margaux Stastny said in an email.

"Mr. Mulcair's politics of division, pitting one region of the country against others, and his ill-informed remarks show that his foolish economic policy will raise prices and cost Canadian jobs."

Coulombe is well-known at Industry Canada, where he was paid as a senior research adviser to the department's chief economist between 2005 and 2008. He has also been given more than 20 research contracts on economic issues by federal departments, including the Finance Department, the Bank of Canada, Statistics Canada and Human Resources and Skills Development.

The Harper government has vilified Mulcair for suggesting the Alberta oilsands have given Canada a case of Dutch Disease. Cabinet ministers have accused the NDP leader of pitting region against region and insulting hard-working workers in the resource sector.

The issue was repeatedly raised Friday in the House of Commons, where Tory House leader Peter Van Loan and MP Kellie Leitch, parliamentary secretary to the minister of human resources, both took jabs.

"Let us talk about issues of disparaging people," Leitch said in response to a question about employment insurance.

"The leader of the Opposition wants to call Canadian employers a disease."

Mulcair has said oilsands development is being carried out without properly accounting for the cost of its environment impact. His comments have triggered the ire of Western premiers, including Alberta Premier Alison Redford.

Alberta's NDP leader, Brian Mason, said Friday that Mulcair will travel to Edmonton at the end of the month for meetings with political and business leaders.

There is no consensus among economists about whether Canada suffers from Dutch Disease.

A report this week from the Institute for Research on Public Policy suggested Canada's strong dollar has hurt 25 per cent of total factory output, mostly in small, labour-intensive industries such as textiles and apparel.

Attempting to debunk the notion that an increased reliance on oil exports is hollowing out Central Canada's manufacturing base, the report concluded that cyclical factors and global competition are mostly to blame for the decline in factory production in Canada over the last decade.

Related on HuffPost:

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  • 10. Oil And Gas Accounts For 4.8 Per Cent Of GDP

    The oil and gas industries accounted for around $65 billion of economic activity in Canada annually in recent years, or slightly less than 5 per cent of GDP. Source: <a href="http://www.ceri.ca/docs/2010-10-05CERIOilandGasReport.pdf" target="_hplink">Canada Energy Research Institute</a>

  • 9. Oil Exports Have Grown Tenfold Since 1980

    Canada exported some 12,000 cubic metres of oil per day in 1980. By 2010, that number had grown to 112,000 cubic metres daily. Source: <a href="http://membernet.capp.ca/SHB/Sheet.asp?SectionID=9&SheetID=224" target="_hplink">Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers</a>

  • 8. Refining Didn't Grow At All As Exports Boomed

    Canada refined 300,000 cubic metres daily in 1980; in 2010, that number was slightly down, to 291,000, even though exports of oil had grown tenfold in that time. Source: <a href="http://membernet.capp.ca/SHB/Sheet.asp?SectionID=7&SheetID=104" target="_hplink">Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers</a>

  • 7. 97 Per Cent Of Oil Exports Go To The U.S.

    Despite talk by the federal government that it wants to open Asian markets to Canadian oil, the vast majority of exports still go to the United States -- 97 per cent as of 2009. Source: <a href="http://www.nrcan.gc.ca/statistics-facts/energy/895" target="_hplink">Natural Resources Canada</a>

  • 6. Canada Has World's 2nd-Largest Proven Oil Reserves

    Canada's proven reserves of 175 billion barrels of oil -- the vast majority of it trapped in the oil sands -- is the second-largest oil stash in the world, after Saudi Arabia's 267 billion. Source: <a href="http://www.ogj.com/index.html" target="_hplink">Oil & Gas Journal</a>

  • 5. Two-Thirds Of Oil Sands Bitumen Goes To U.S.

    One-third of Canada's oil sands bitumen stays in the country, and is refined into gasoline, heating oil and diesel. Source: <a href="http://www.nrcan.gc.ca/statistics-facts/energy/895" target="_hplink">Natural Resources Canada</a>

  • 4. Alberta Is Two-Thirds Of The Industry

    Despite its reputation as the undisputed centre of Canada's oil industry, Alberta accounts for only two-thirds of energy production. British Columbia and Saskatchewan are the second and third-largest producers. Source: <a href="http://www.nrcan.gc.ca/statistics-facts/energy/895" target="_hplink">Natural Resources Canada</a>

  • 3. Alberta Will Reap $1.2 Trillion From Oil Sands

    Alberta' government <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2012/03/27/alberta-oil-sands-royalties-ceri_n_1382640.html" target="_hplink">will reap $1.2 trillion in royalties from the oil sands over the next 35 years</a>, according to the Canadian Energy Research Institute.

  • 2. Canadian Oil Consumption Has Stayed Flat

    Thanks to improvements in energy efficiency, and a weakening of the country's manufacturing base, oil consumption in Canada has had virtually no net change in 30 years. Consumption went from 287,000 cubic metres daily in 1980 to 260,000 cubic metres daily in 2010. Source: Source: <a href="http://membernet.capp.ca/SHB/Sheet.asp?SectionID=6&SheetID=99" target="_hplink">Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers</a>

  • 1. 250,000 Jobs.. Plus Many More?

    The National Energy Board says oil and gas employs 257,000 people in Canada, not including gas station employees. And the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers says the oil sands alone <a href="http://www.capp.ca/aboutUs/mediaCentre/NewsReleases/Pages/OilsandsaCanadianjobcreator.aspx" target="_hplink">will grow from 75,000 jobs to 905,000 jobs by 2035</a> -- assuming, of course, the price of oil holds up.

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BCSLAVE
Got a key?
12:35 AM on 05/22/2012
Stephen Harper, working hard to dismantle the country with debt.

http://www.leaderpost.com/news/Harper+budget+work+starving+beast/6088154/story.html
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1846
Deir Yassin Survivor
11:29 PM on 05/19/2012
This is what happens when Harper talks before getting advice from his american handlers.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Jason Bullock
09:07 PM on 05/19/2012
What the Cons attacking someone for something they themsleves already did, yet pretend it never happened?

Reminds me of the CPC's "Coalition Governments are illegal, and a violation of the Constitution Act" bs from a couple years ago after the Libs, NDP and Bloc threatened to form one. You know, desipte being formed themselves through a coalition...
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BCSLAVE
Got a key?
09:50 PM on 05/19/2012
And Harper even offered to head a coalition with Jack Layton and the Bloc.

"Lets be clear"...Harper is the worst crook of a PM this country has ever had to suffer through.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
logicanada
Blogger, radio co-host, writer, editor, voice-over
06:42 PM on 05/19/2012
Harper believes in "Starving The Beast" (google it) much more than in Dutch Disease.
12:52 PM on 05/19/2012
I'm not a Harper supporter, but why is the headline of this article so rhetorically biased? First of all it appears that this is an Industry Canada study. Government funds thousands of studies in social science every year that the party in power is not associated with in any way.

Secondly, the "resource industry" is not tantamount to the "tar sands." Believe it or not Canada's economy is much bigger than what goes on in Fort McMurray. This is what Simpson said today in the G&M -- "The reasons for the strength of the Canadian dollar go way beyond the fact that Canada exports oil. It also exports natural gas, minerals, potash, forestry products and hydro, especially from Mr. Mulcair’s own province, Quebec. Those products (except maybe forestry these days) are in high demand, especially in Asia. When demand is high, prices tend to track demand."

So yes, Canada has resources in every part of the country. And yes, they generate wealth that sustain our quality of life and help pay for a social safety net across the country.

What's more, those jobs from China aren't coming back. Notice that the U.S. is losing those jobs too. Canada's wealth of natural resources may have accelerated the process, but they've also generated jobs, immense wealth and provided an important buffer to changes that are taking place all over the developed world, which lets us prepare for the future if we use that wealth wisely.
04:55 PM on 05/19/2012
no one is saying that the resource sector should not be developed. what is being asked it that the development be sustainable, and the environmental costs associate with the extraction are borne entirely by the corporations reaping huge profits from the resource, rather than the Canadian taxpayer, who is currently left footing an unfair portion of the costs, especially the future taxpayers.
05:41 PM on 05/19/2012
the development IS sustainable. canada already has stringent environmental regulations and the oil sands contribute substantially to government revenues that benefit all Canadians (notice Alberta sends Quebec $7 Billion a year in equalization payments alone.) and all businesses are a gamble. without profits there would never be investments anywhere in the first place (i.e. econ 101). good luck building an economy or paying for social programs there.

now, if the issue is greenhouse gases, the best and most efficient way to deal with that is to tax carbon. however, that applies equally to all people and all industries, including manufacturing, in all regions of the country. there is no sense in singling out tar sands for that unless one is playing opportunistic and dangerous political games and appealing to people's prejudices or even just elite snobbery and aesthetics. unfortunately, the only party that supports a carbon tax has been the liberals.
09:23 AM on 05/19/2012
Pardon me for being uninformed, but if you take away the tar sands just what does Canada have that is so special?
And also to all posters who throw numbers around do you not think that you should also post your sources for those numbers or do we get to be like governments and just say what ever we want to support our position whether it is true or not?
07:47 AM on 05/19/2012
This is a very misleading report. Canada's economy does not suffer from Dutch disease. From 2001 to 2010 manufacturing dropped by $22 billion of which the report believes up to 39% ($8.5 billion) was due to a higher petro dollar. But Canada's economy grew by more than $200 billion during that time or about ten times the rate the manufacturing sector declined. So unless you are prepared to say the growth in the economy had nothing to do with a strong dollar then the article misses the point.
08:01 AM on 05/19/2012
Please produce the documents to refute this study, we would all love to see your report. Or the Stats Canada study which concluded the same thing, but only attributed 25% to the dollar.

Please show us your proof, opinions and armchair economics is what got us here.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Doogs62
To see by faith is to shut the eye of reason
01:03 PM on 05/19/2012
He forgets to mention that growth were mostly in petro. exports although his figures are almost certainly skewed.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
gravescanada
07:10 AM on 05/19/2012
This is reminiscent of Richard Nixon and The Shafer Commission in 1972. Nixon wanted the commission to say how terrible Marijuana was, but the commission found it was not, so Nixon ignored it. Harper is following in the same path, and by not recognizing the dangers our high dollar represent, he dooms manufacturing in this country.
01:02 AM on 05/19/2012
Someone who does not understand currency and its impact on business should stay away from economic planning. Its funny and not so funny as we have handed the reign of our country to buffoons!
12:37 AM on 05/19/2012
Behavior is evidence of character.

Those who defend this kind of government behavior have fair cause to question the nature of their own character.

Shame. Bloody shame.
12:33 AM on 05/19/2012
"Christian Paradis said the study does not reflect the views of the Harper government." This reveals the essence of Harperism -- 'views' (however mysteriously arrived at) systematically take precedence over researched studies and science.
11:56 PM on 05/18/2012
I reject reality and substitute it with my own!
11:20 PM on 05/18/2012
Mulcair's is strife with foot in mouth disease. I look forward to three more years of his brilliance..solidifying his irrelevance
TheRenaissanceMan
A starry-eyed idealist with too much time
11:59 PM on 05/18/2012
Mulcair's right about this issue. Even the OECD backs him up on this.
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1846
Deir Yassin Survivor
04:57 AM on 05/19/2012
Mulcair got it right no doubt about it; the responses from Alberta, BC, and Harper are ludicrous, no thoughtful parliamentarians there.
Just too much paranoia I suspect.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Doogs62
To see by faith is to shut the eye of reason
01:06 PM on 05/19/2012
Can't admit you're wrong MK .Guess all your pro-Harper posts can be valued for what they are...tripe. But don't let facts get in your way a true Conservative never does.
11:16 PM on 05/18/2012
It's too bad that the Conservatives Can't even have any type of business plan that isn't written for them by outside lobbyists. He has given away thousands of jobs in this country and won't ask any business who takes resources from this country to reinvest back into this country either with Value added jobs or additional business benefits to help stimulate Canada's unemployment. Being pro Business Harpo doesn't have to mean being AntiCanadian.
10:44 PM on 05/18/2012
Turns out harper thought dutch Disease was prevelant when he was in opposition.
Would it be cynical to suggers harper never has known what the hell he's talking about?
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Doogs62
To see by faith is to shut the eye of reason
01:08 PM on 05/19/2012
Or the fact that everything he preached against miraculously disappeared once he got into office.