Outspoken financial commentator and former MP Garth Turner is making a bubble-bursting prediction about the Vancouver real estate market, saying prices there could drop by as much as 40 per cent.

But such dire forecasts have been common for years, and at least one local analyst says the often controversial Turner is mistaken.

Still, Turner, a former minister of national revenue and Ontario Conservative MP, said there are obvious reasons he’s forecasting a sharp downturn.

“The average household in Vancouver isn't making enough money to afford the average home,” Turner said. “At the same time, we've had a lot of speculation in the market ... and we've had changes to mortgage lending rules.”

A steady decline in the number of sales and prices over the last 90 days, Turner believes, is just the beginning.

“We'll have something around a 30-to-40 per-cent decline in prices.”

Despite his dire outlook, the market has been robust for most of the last decade and condo marketer Cameron McNeill believes Turner will be proved wrong.

“The fundamentals that are driving the market below the surface are just too strong for any sort of bubble circumstance to happen,” says McNeill.

Detached house prices, particularly on Vancouver’s West Side, are well over $1 million, but McNeil says most people aren't that stretched to buy a condo or a townhome, so Turner’s affordability argument doesn't stand up.

“The fact of the matter is, in Vancouver today, you can buy a condominium and you can rent it out and you will have 40 people in line trying to rent that condominium,” McNeill says. “If you have that much desire for people to live in a condominium, I think the market's got no problem sustaining itself.”

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  • 10. Kingston, Ontario - $980

    Number represents the average price of a two-bedroom apartment per month, as of April 2012. Source: <a href="http://www.cmhc.ca/" target="_hplink">CMHC</a>

  • 9. Kawartha Lakes, Ontario - $981

    Number represents the average price of a two-bedroom apartment per month, as of April 2012. Source: <a href="http://www.cmhc.ca/" target="_hplink">CMHC</a>

  • 8. Barrie, Ontario - $991

    Number represents the average price of a two-bedroom apartment per month, as of April 2012. Source: <a href="http://www.cmhc.ca/" target="_hplink">CMHC</a>

  • 7. Edmonton, Alberta - $1,036

    Number represents the average price of a two-bedroom apartment per month, as of April 2012. Source: <a href="http://www.cmhc.ca/" target="_hplink">CMHC</a>

  • 6. Victoria, B.C. - $1,046

    Number represents the average price of a two-bedroom apartment per month, as of April 2012. Source: <a href="http://www.cmhc.ca/" target="_hplink">CMHC</a>

  • 5. Ottawa, Ontario - $1,104

    Number represents the average price of a two-bedroom apartment per month, as of April 2012. Source: <a href="http://www.cmhc.ca/" target="_hplink">CMHC</a>

  • 4. Calgary, Alberta - $1,113

    Number represents the average price of a two-bedroom apartment per month, as of April 2012. Source: <a href="http://www.cmhc.ca/" target="_hplink">CMHC</a>

  • 3. Toronto, Ontario - $1,164

    Number represents the average price of a two-bedroom apartment per month, as of April 2012. Source: <a href="http://www.cmhc.ca/" target="_hplink">CMHC</a>

  • 2. Vancouver, B.C. - $1,210

    Number represents the average price of a two-bedroom apartment per month, as of April 2012. Source: <a href="http://www.cmhc.ca/" target="_hplink">CMHC</a>

  • 1. Fort McMurray, Alberta - $2,031

    Due to a constant influx of high-paying jobs, Fort McMurray, the centre of the oil sands industry, has the highest apartment rental costs in Canada.<br> <br> Number represents the average price of a two-bedroom apartment per month, as of April 2012. Source: <a href="http://www.cmhc.ca/" target="_hplink">CMHC</a>



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  • Vancouver - $299,999

    #302-2333 ETON ST Building Type : Apartment Bedrooms : 2 Bathrooms : 1 Floor Space : 765 sqft Storeys : 1 Built in : 1988 Title : Condominium/Strata Maintenance Fees : $287.53 Monthly

  • Vancouver - $299,999

    #302-2333 ETON ST

  • Vancouver - $299,999

    #302-2333 ETON ST

  • Vancouver - $199,999

    1640 KENT AV Building Type : House Bedrooms : 1 Bathrooms : 2 Floor Space : 860 sqft Storeys : 2 Built in : 1993

  • Vancouver - $199,999

    1640 KENT AV

  • Vancouver - $199,999

    1640 KENT AV

  • Richmond - $299,900

    #3-8400 COOK RD Building Type : Apartment Bedrooms : 1 Bathrooms : 1 Floor Space : 607 sqft Storeys : 1 Built in : 2010 Title : Condominium/Strata

  • Richmond - $299,900

    #3-8400 COOK RD

  • Surrey - $300,000

    #A4-19296 72A AVE Building Type : Row / Townhouse Bedrooms : 3 Bathrooms : 4 Floor Space : 1298 sqft Storeys : 3 Built in : 2012 Title : Condominium/Strata

  • Surrey - $300,000

    #A4-19296 72A AVE

  • Surrey - $300,000

    #A4-19296 72A AVE

  • Whistler - $299,000

    #6-2720 CHEAKAMUS WY Building Type : Row / Townhouse Bedrooms : 1 Bathrooms : 1 Floor Space : 668 sqft Storeys : 1 Built in : 1998 Title : Condominium/Strata

  • Whistler - $299,000

    #6-2720 CHEAKAMUS WY

  • Whistler - $299,000

    #6-2720 CHEAKAMUS WY

  • Prince George - $299,900

    3049 RIDGEVIEW DR Building Type : House Bedrooms : 4 Bathrooms : 3 Floor Space : 2274 sqft Storeys : 4 Built in : 1977 Land Size : 0.28 ac Title : Freehold

  • Prince George - $299,900

    3049 RIDGEVIEW DR

  • Prince George - $299,900

    3049 RIDGEVIEW DR

  • Kamloops - $299,900

    814-15 HUDSONS BAY TRAIL Building Type : Row / Townhouse Bedrooms : 3 Bathrooms : 3 Floor Space : 1904 sqft Title : Freehold

  • Kamloops - $299,900

    814-15 HUDSONS BAY TRAIL

  • Kamloops - $299,900

    814-15 HUDSONS BAY TRAIL

  • Kelowna - $299,900

    1881 Ambrosi Road # 10 Bedrooms : 2 Bathrooms : 2 Floor Space : 1174 sqft Storeys : 2 Built in : 2012 Land Size : under 1 acre Title : Condominium/Strata Maintenance Fees : $121.74 Monthly

  • Kelowna - $299,900

    1881 Ambrosi Road # 10

  • Kelowna - $299,900

    1881 Ambrosi Road # 10

  • Nelson - $309,000

    304 HIGH ST Building Type : House Bedrooms : 3 Bathrooms : 1 Floor Space : 1148 sqft Storeys : 2 Built in : 9999 Land Size : 0.163 ac

  • Nelson - $309,000

    304 HIGH ST

  • Nelson - $309,000

    304 HIGH ST

  • Cranbrook - $299,900

    203 S 8TH ST Building Type : House Bedrooms : 4 Bathrooms : 3 Floor Space : 2170 sqft Storeys : 1 Built in : 1994

  • Cranbrook - $299,900

    203 S 8TH ST

  • Cranbrook - $299,900

    203 S 8TH ST

  • Abbotsford - $302,900

    #11-31255 UPPER MACLURE RD Building Type : Row / Townhouse Bedrooms : 3 Bathrooms : 2 Floor Space : 1186 sqft Storeys : 2 Built in : 1992

  • Abbotsford - $302,900

    #11-31255 UPPER MACLURE RD

  • Abbotsford - $302,900

    #11-31255 UPPER MACLURE RD

  • Prince Rupert - $299,000

    1541 OVERLOOK ST Building Type : House Bedrooms : 5 Bathrooms : 3 Floor Space : 2300 sqft Storeys : 3 Built in : 1968 Land Size : 0.229 ac

  • Prince Rupert - $299,000

    1541 OVERLOOK ST

  • Prince Rupert - $299,000

    1541 OVERLOOK ST

  • Smithers - $309,500

    4314 JACKPINE RD Building Type : House Bedrooms : 5 Bathrooms : 2 Floor Space : 2434 sqft Storeys : 4 Built in : 1996 Land Size : 5 ac

  • Smithers - $309,500

    4314 JACKPINE RD

  • Smithers - $309,500

    4314 JACKPINE RD

  • Kitimat - $299,000

    96 ANDERSON ST Building Type : House Bedrooms : 4 Bathrooms : 3 Floor Space : 2300 sqft Storeys : 2 Built in : 1974 Land Size : 0.186 ac

  • Kitimat - $299,000

    96 ANDERSON ST

  • Kitimat - $299,000

    96 ANDERSON ST

  • Victoria - $299,900

    304-751 Goldstream Ave Building Type : Apartment Bedrooms : 2 Bathrooms : 2 Floor Space : 1030 sqft Built in : 2010 Land Size : 1113 sqft View : City view Title : Condominium/Strata

  • Victoria - $299,900

    304-751 Goldstream Ave

  • Victoria - $299,900

    304-751 Goldstream Ave

  • Nanaimo - $299,900

    1691 NAIRNE ROAD Building Type : House Bedrooms : 4 Bathrooms : 2 Floor Space : 1870 sqft Built in : 1967 Land Size : irregular Title : Freehold

  • Nanaimo - $299,900

    1691 NAIRNE ROAD

  • Nanaimo - $299,900

    1691 NAIRNE ROAD

  • Cortes Island - $279,000

    1411 ROBERTSON ROAD Building Type : House Bedrooms : 2 Bathrooms : 1 Floor Space : 1116 sqft Built in : 1975 Land Size : 2.71 ac Title : Freehold

  • Cortes Island - $279,000

    1411 ROBERTSON ROAD

  • Cortes Island - $279,000

    1411 ROBERTSON ROAD

  • Dawson Creek - $279,000

    1552 109 AVE Building Type : House Bedrooms : 4 Bathrooms : 2 Floor Space : 1100 sqft Storeys : 1.5 Built in : 1962 Land Size : 73 X 130 Title : Freehold