OTTAWA - Finance Minister Jim Flaherty is issuing the fall economic update on Tuesday, a mid-term report card many expect will show a modest deterioration in the government's finances.

The report will be released at noon ET in Ottawa and in Fredericton, where Flaherty is speaking to the local chamber of commerce.

A senior government official said Canadians should not expect any big surprises in the update, such as new tax or spend measures.

Last month, Flaherty revealed government revenues had been lower than expected due to an average five per cent drop in the global price of resource commodities that Canada exports to the world.

In terms of growth, Flaherty is using a new, lower economic consensus forecast for real gross domestic product growth and also inflation-excluded nominal GDP, which bears more directly on tax revenues.

The new nominal growth estimate is for a 3.4 per cent increase this year, down from the 4.6 per cent advance forecast in the budget, and for a 4.0 per cent gain in 2013, down from the previously expected 4.4. Subsequent years were adjusted moderately upwards.

Using the new estimates, the TD Bank calculates revenues would be about $1.8 billion lower than projected this fiscal year, which ends March 31.

That may lead to a modest short-term hit on Ottawa's bottom line.

Given what the minister has described as an uncertain and risky global outlook, Flaherty may also build in a bigger margin for risk on his deficit projections, which could delay — on paper at least — the government's timeline for eliminating the deficit.

In the budget, Flaherty had pencilled a $21.1-billion shortfall this fiscal year, followed by deficits of $10.2 billion and $1.3 billion in the subsequent two years. The 2015-16 fiscal year would see a surplus for the first time in almost a decade.

Flaherty has said recently he still expects to meet his target for balancing the budget in the medium term, but was not specific about whether that would occur in the 2015-16 budget.

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  • 19 (tie): Manufacturing: -9%

    Manufacturing was one of only three economic sectors to shrink in Canada between 2000 and 2011, losing nine per cent of its value. Source: Huffington Post via StatsCan Photo: Globe and Mail

  • 19 (tie). Forestry and Logging: -9%

    Forestry and logging shrank 9 per cent from 2000 to 2011, one of only three economic sectors to see negative growth. Source: Huffington Post via StatsCan Photo: The Canadian Press

  • 18. Fishing, Hunting and Trapping: -6%

    Fishing, hunting and trapping was one of three economic sectors to shrink in Canada from 2000 to 2011, losing six per cent of its value. Source: Huffington Post via StatsCan Photo: The Canadian Press

  • 17. Agriculture and Forestry Support: 33%

    Source: Huffington Post via StatsCan Photo: Rex Features

  • 16. Utilities: 43%

    Source: Huffington Post via StatsCan Photo: Alamy

  • 15. Crop and Animal Production: 44%

    Source: Huffington Post via StatsCan Photo: The Canadian Press

  • 14. Accommodation and Food Services: 50%

    Source: Huffington Post via StatsCan Photo: The Canadian Press

  • 13. Transportation and Warehousing: 54%

    Source: Huffington Post via StatsCan Photo: The Globe and Mail

  • 12. Arts, Entertainment and Recreation: 61%

    Source: Huffington Post via StatsCan Photo: Alamy

  • 11. Wholesale Trade: 62%

    Source: Huffington Post via StatsCan Photo: The Canadian Press

  • 9 (tie). Information and Cultural Industries: 64%

    Source: Huffington Post via StatsCan Photo: The Canadian Press

  • 9 (tie). Education: 64%

    Source: Huffington Post via StatsCan Photo: The Canadian Press

  • 7 (tie). Finance and Insurance: 68%

    Source: Huffington Post via StatsCan Photo: The Canadian Press

  • 7 (tie). Public Administration: 68%

    Source: Huffington Post via StatsCan Photo: The Canadian Press

  • 6. Professional, Scientific and Technical Services: 78%

    Source: Huffington Post via StatsCan Photo: The Canadian Press

  • 5. Retail: 79%

    Source: Huffington Post via StatsCan Photo: The Canadian Press

  • 4. Health Care and Social Services: 87%

    Source: Huffington Post via StatsCan Photo: The Canadian Press

  • 18. Administrative and Support, Waste Management: 90%

    Source: Huffington Post via StatsCan Photo: Alamy

  • 2. Construction: 130%

    Source: Huffington Post via StatsCan Photo: The Canadian Press

  • 1. Mining, Oil and Gas Extraction: 169%

    Source: Huffington Post via StatsCan Photo: AFP/Getty