The latest polling numbers by Nanos Research show Canadians are losing confidence in the economy.

Nanos Research asked Canadians if they thought the economy would get stronger or weaker, and the results changed dramatically between January and February.

Between January and February there was a five-point jump in the number of Canadians who think the economy is going to get weaker over the next year.

The findings are based on representative random online surveys of adult Canadians conducted Jan. 18-19 and Feb. 27-28, 2013. A margin of error does not apply and the data was weighted using the latest Census information to be a true representation of opinion at the time of the fieldwork.

"We don't usually see numbers like this change in one month," Nik Nanos told Power & Politics host Evan Solomon. Nanos said there are a few factors at play.

"The malaise, the fight, the confusion and the deadlock in the United States over the budget is probably sending a bit of a psychological chill in Canada," Nanos said.

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• The housing slowdown

  Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. predicts<a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2013/02/22/canada-housing-forecast-cmhc_n_2743550.html"> construction of new homes will fall 11 per cent this year</a>. That could be bad news for the economy, as Canada has come to be more reliant on real estate and construction-related activity than it has been in recorded history. The "FIRE" industries -- finance, insurance and real estate -- amount to 27 per cent of the economy, up from a long term average of 24. A construction slowdown could translate into big job losses.

• Commodity prices and the oil "discount'

  Prices for Western Canadian oil are about <a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/price-discounts-the-other-half-of-the-barrel/article9027565/">30 per cent below market rates</a>, due to a lack of capacity in the infrastructure bringing Canadian oil to the U.S., as well as the shale oil boom the U.S. is experiencing. The Harper government is lobbying furiously to get the Keystone XL pipeline built and gain greater access to the U.S., but <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2013/02/21/keystone-pipeline-gina-mccarthy-epa_n_2735643.html">success on that file is far from guaranteed</a>.

• Consumer debt

  Canadian household debt has <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2012/12/13/consumer-debt-canada-2012_n_2292914.html">reached an all-time high</a>, but in 2012 Canadians still took on more. <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2013/02/05/canadian-consumer-debt-up_n_2621024.html">Consumer debt jumped 6 per cent last year</a>. Analysts are growing concerned that Canadian consumers are over-leveraged and will eventually have to make steep cuts to their spending.

• Consumer spending

  The flipside of Canadians' explosive debt burden is consumer spending, which is now showing weakness as debt loads continue to grow. <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2013/02/22/holiday-retail-sales-canada-december-2012_n_2741025.html">Retail sales over the crucial holiday season posted an unexpected 2.1-per-cent decline this past December</a>, signalling that the Canadian consumer may be running out of steam, and finally reigning in those debts.

• Government austerity measures

  A recent CIBC study estimated that austerity measures <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2012/08/28/cibc-gdp-government-restraint.html">will shave 0.9 per cent off government spending</a>, which in turn will translate into a 0.2 per cent drag on Canada's GDP.

• U.S. gridlock

  The sequester debate currently going on in the U.S. is just the latest example of legislative gridlock in Washington that can translate into economic pain for Canada. If the $85 billion in cuts that form the sequester go forward, <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2013/02/26/janet-napolitano-border_n_2768080.html?utm_hp_ref=canada-politics">Canada can expect to see gridlock on its borders</a>, harming its very large and important trade relationship with the U.S. Pictured: U.S. House Speaker Joen Boehner.

• Business investment

  Canadian companies' <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2013/02/27/investment-intentions-canada_n_2773101.html?utm_hp_ref=canada-business">business investment plans are at their lowest non-recession point since 1995</a>, an alarm bell for the economy because investment is so important to the creation of new jobs and future profits.

• Exports

  Canadian <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2013/02/08/canadas-trade-deficit-na_n_2645297.html">exports fell 2.8 per cent in the last month of 2012</a>, a sign that Canada's largest trading partner, the U.S., is still struggling to sustain growth. But with Asia experiencing a slowdown and Europe continuing to muddle through its debt crisis, the odds of a pick-up in demand for Canadian exports are slim.

• Global economic turmoil

  Prime Minister Stephen Harper <a href="http://business.financialpost.com/2013/01/23/global-economic-slowdown-having-fiscal-impact-on-canada-harper-says/">recently noted that a global economic slowdown is having an impact on Canada</a>. “There has been a general slowing of the global economy over the past half-year so it is obviously a concern to us. And…it’s going obviously to have some fiscal impact on us, will have some impact on the pace of job creation," Harper said.

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  The Best And Worst Places In Canada To Find A Job

• WORST: Newfoundland & Labrador - 20.9

  Number of job-seekers for every job available, in the three months ending in January, 2013. Source: StatsCan

• Prince Edward Island - 15.1

  Number of job-seekers for every job available, in the three months ending in January, 2013. Source: StatsCan

• New Brunswick - 13.5

  Number of job-seekers for every job available, in the three months ending in January, 2013. Source: StatsCan

• Nova Scotia - 12.3

  Number of job-seekers for every job available, in the three months ending in January, 2013. Source: StatsCan

• Nunvaut - 10.7

  Number of job-seekers for every job available, in the three months ending in January, 2013. Source: StatsCan

• Ontario - 9.3

  Number of job-seekers for every job available, in the three months ending in January, 2013. Source: StatsCan

• Quebec - 8.6

  Number of job-seekers for every job available, in the three months ending in January, 2013. Source: StatsCan

• British Columbia - 5.6

  Number of job-seekers for every job available, in the three months ending in January, 2013. Source: StatsCan

• Northwest Territories - 3.9

  Number of job-seekers for every job available, in the three months ending in January, 2013. Source: StatsCan

• Manitoba - 3.7

  Number of job-seekers for every job available, in the three months ending in January, 2013. Source: StatsCan

• Best (tie): Saskatchewan - 2.0

  Number of job-seekers for every job available, in the three months ending in January, 2013. Source: StatsCan

• Best (tie): Alberta - 2.0

  Number of job-seekers for every job available, in the three months ending in January, 2013. Source: StatsCan

• Yukon: data not available

  Number of job-seekers for every job available, in the three months ending in January, 2013. Source: StatsCan

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  The Best And Worst Industries In Canada To Find A Job

• Worst: Construction - 11.1

  Number of job seekers for every available job. Source: StatsCan

• Arts, entertainment & recreation - 9.9

  Number of job seekers for every available job. Source: StatsCan

• Manufacturing - 6.8

  Number of job seekers for every available job. Source: StatsCan

• Education - 6.0

  Number of job seekers for every available job. Source: StatsCan

• Administrative & support - 4.5

  Number of job seekers for every available job. Source: StatsCan

• Retail trade - 4.4

  Number of job seekers for every available job. Source: StatsCan

• Accommodation and food services - 3.9

  Number of job seekers for every available job. Source: StatsCan

• Oil, gas and mining - 3.2

  Number of job seekers for every available job. Source: StatsCan

• Transportation and warehousing - 3.0

  Number of job seekers for every available job. Source: StatsCan

• Professional, scientific & technical - 2.8

  Number of job seekers for every available job. Source: StatsCan

• Public administration - 2.1

  Number of job seekers for every available job. Source: StatsCan

• Finance and insurance - 1.7

  Number of job seekers for every available job. Source: StatsCan

• BEST: Health care, social assistance - 1.4

  Number of job seekers for every available job. Source: StatsCan

Canadians are also not seeing a lot from the federal government right now, Nanos pointed out. Which is why the upcoming federal budget, which will come down on March 21, will be crucial for the Conservatives.

But it might be a tough year for the government, Nanos warned.

"This is probably going to be a Buckley's cough syrup — tastes awful but works — kind of budget, where the Conservatives dole out tough medicine in order to hit those deficit targets," Nanos said.

The Conservatives are thinking about timing and the next election, Nanos said, and have to be tough this year to get Canada's fiscal house in order for an election in 2015.

In contrast, Nanos predicts the opposition parties will have a better year, and the change in Canadians' confidence in the economy could be used to their benefit.

Recognized as one of Canada's top research experts, Nik Nanos provides numbers-driven counsel to senior executives and major organizations. He leads the analyst team at Nanos, is a fellow of the Marketing Research and Intelligence Association, a research associate professor with SUNY (Buffalo) and a 2013 public policy scholar with the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington DC.