Liberal support is the highest it has been since the summer of 2009, when Michael Ignatieff took over the leadership, according to the latest tracking numbers by Nanos Research.
The research was done before Senator Mike Duffy made some extraordinary allegations against the Prime Minister's Office this week.
The Nanos weekly ballot tracking has Liberal national support at 37 per cent. The Conservatives are second at 29 per cent, the NDP is third at 23 per cent and the Green Party is fourth at five per cent. The ballot tracking is one aspect of the Party Power Index that Nanos Research releases every week.
The results are based on a national random telephone survey, using both cell and land line of Canadians. Using a four-week rolling average ending Aug. 31 (816 decided voters) and Oct. 18 (826 decided voters). It is accurate to within 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Despite the lower polling numbers for the Conservative Party as a whole, in the lead up to the speech from the throne Prime Minister Stephen Harper has significantly improved his personal numbers.
When Canadians were asked the qualities of a good leader, 57 per cent said Stephen Harper had those qualities. That's up 6 points from August. Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau is also sitting at 57 per cent, up slightly from August. NDP Leader Tom Mulcair is behind with 44 per cent.
The results are based on a national random telephone survey of 1,000 Canadians, using a four-week rolling average ending Aug. 31 and Oct. 18, accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
"The talk about being consumer friendly, the focus on the speech from the throne, the chit-chat about the European Union [trade deal] was actually good for his [Harper's] personal brand, but it did not convert into support for the Conservatives," Nik Nanos told Evan Solomon on CBC News Network's Power & Politics.
While the Liberal Party is going up in the polls the NDP is going down, and Nanos said that while Mulcair is a good performer in the House of Commons and is doing a good job "tearing down" the prime minister and the Conservatives, Mulcair also needs to build himself and the NDP up as a government in waiting.
"It's not enough just to tear down the PM," Nanos said.
The Senate Effect
In terms of the Senate scandal and how it will affect polling numbers, Nanos said he will be watching for who becomes the focus of the controversy.
At the beginning it was about Senator Duffy, then it was about the prime minister's former Chief of Staff Nigel Wright, but now the focus it turning to the prime minister "and it's never good for whoever's in the media cross-hairs," Nanos said.
"For Stephen Harper, he has to think of a way either to put this to rest, kill this issue or divert and have it focused on somebody else."
Not only are the Conservatives having to deal with a Senate scandal, but the Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz also delivered a gloomy economic outlook on Wednesday. He significantly downgraded the bank's economic growth forecast for 2013 and beyond.
A strong economy and managing the economy has always been part of the Conservative's brand, so this latest outlook might be problematic for Harper. According to the new BloombergNanos Canadian Confidence Index, Canadians' confidence in the economy is dropping.
At the end of September, 17 per cent of Canadians thought the economy would get weaker, that number has jumped to 22 per cent in just three weeks. Twenty per cent thought the economy would get stronger and 53 per cent thought there would be no change.
The Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index is based on weekly measurements. The latest numbers ended Oct. 18, 2013. It is a random telephone (both cell and landline) survey of 1,000 Canadians, using a four-week rolling average of 250 respondents each week. It is accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
"This makes for almost like the perfect storm in terms of difficulties for the prime minister," Nanos said. Harper will have to manage the controversy in the Senate, while trying to shift the focus to the economy and assure Canadians that his government has a plan to weather this latest economic storm.
Nik Nanos digs beneath the numbers with CBC News Network's Power & Politics to get to the political, economic and social forces that shape our lives. Recognized as one of Canada's top research experts, Nanos provides numbers-driven counsel to senior executives and major organizations. He leads the analyst team at Nanos, is a Fellow of the Marketing Research and Intelligence Association and a Research Associate Professor with SUNY (Buffalo).
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Earlier on HuffPost:
Toronto Mayor Rob Ford says he has had his <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2013/08/28/rob-ford-marijuana-wynne_n_3831389.html" target="_blank">fair share of marijuana</a>. "Oh, yeah. I've smoked a lot of it."
The federal Liberal leader opened up to HuffPost about his experience with marijuana in August. "Sometimes, I guess, I have gotten a buzz, but other times no. I’m not really crazy about it.”
The Opposition leader's office told HuffPost this summer that Mulcair <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2013/08/22/justin-trudeau-marijuana-peter-mackay_n_3797481.html" target="_blank">has smoked in the past</a> but not since he was elected to office. Mulcair was elected to the National Assembly of Quebec in 1994.
Said the <a href="http://www.mapinc.org/drugnews/v02/n506/a09.html" target="_blank">Tory finance minister</a>: "Yeah, in my teenage years... a couple of times, I have to admit: I didn’t like it."
The Liberal MP and Canada's first astronaut said he tried marijuana as a <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/player/News/Politics/Power+%26+Politics/ID/2402495133/" target="_blank">student in the 1970s in England. </a> "It's not my thing. I stopped because it wasn't doing anything for me."
The premier of Ontario said she <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2013/08/28/kathleen-wynne-marijuana-pot_n_3830736.html?utm_hp_ref=canada-politics" target="_blank">smoked pot decades ago</a>. "I have smoked marijuana but not for the last 35 years."
Said the <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2013/08/29/darrell-dexter-marijuana-pot_n_3837009.html?utm_hp_ref=canada-politics" target="_blank">premier of Nova Scotia</a>: "Like every other person I knew back in the '70s when I went to university, some of whom are actually in this room, I would have tried it, the same as other people at that time."
Said the <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2012/05/01/christy-clark-marijuana-use-pot_n_1469321.html" target="_blank">premier of British Columbia</a>: "I graduated from Burnaby South Senior Secondary in 1983 and there was a lot of that going on when I was in high school and I didn't avoid it all together."
The leader of the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario admitted he's <a href="http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2011/08/18/hudak_admits_to_smoking_pot.html" target="_blank">puffed in the past.</a> "I was a normal kid, I had a normal upbringing, a normal life in university. I experimented from time to time with marijuana. It’s a long time ago in the past and in the grand scheme of things."
The former prime minister of Canada <a href="http://www.ctvnews.ca/" target="_blank">told CTV News</a>: "The answer is: I never smoked. I never smoked anything, but there was an earlier time, years ago, when (my wife) made some brownies and they did have a strange taste."
The former prime minister admitted while running for the leadership of the Progressive Conservatives that <a href="http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2013/08/22/chris-selley-trudeau-pot-revelation-underscores-one-of-his-few-actual-policy-positions/" target="_blank">she tried weed.</a> "And I inhaled the smoke."
Said the former NDP leader: "Yes, and some might say I never exhaled."
The former premier of Ontario said he <a href="http://www.cfdp.ca/cita99.htm" target="_blank">experimented in his teens</a>, but only twice.
The premier of Saskatchewan said he was an <a href="http://www.canada.com/topics/news/politics/story.html?id=f23471e8-be96-46cf-9c1f-b43d5c497cdd" target="_blank">"infrequent" user back in university.</a> "It didn't really do anything for me, luckily, because for some, it does lead to other things."
UP NEXT: Celebs Smoking Pot
The rapper's 18-year-old son, Corde Calvin Broadus, caused a stir when he <a href="http://www.digitalspy.com/celebrity/i435058-16/twitterinstagram-pics-of-2012-snoop-dogg-and-son-corde-calvin-broadus.html">shared this photo of him</a> smoking with his famous weed-loving dad.
Soulja Boy, Wiz Khalifa
Is that smoke, or a new Instagram filter? Soulja Boy<a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/01/03/soulja-boy-wiz-khalifa-smoke-up-photo_n_2402221.html"> tweeted a photo </a>of what appears to be him and pal Wiz Khalifa smoking out a giant bong on Jan. 3.
"Oh don't worry," Brown wrote on this <a href="http://instagram.com/p/SzQdSKPpVR/">Instagram photo </a>he shared in December, from Amsterdam. "It's medicinal!! Lol."
<a href="http://www.vanityfair.com/online/daily/2012/06/kristen-stewart-responds-critics-shit-eaters-vanity-fair">In a 2012 Vanity Fair article</a>, Stewart addressed the photos taken of her smoking out of a pipe in 2008. "You can Google my name and one of the first things that comes up is images of me sitting on my front porch smoking a pipe with my ex-boyfriend and my dog," she said. "I was a kid. I had just turned 18. In [the tabloids] the next day it was like I was a delinquent slimy idiot, whereas I’m kind of a weirdo, creative Valley Girl who smokes pot. Big deal.”
Dressing up as <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/02/rihanna-topless-singer-post-halloween-lok_n_2066153.html">"The Bride of Mary Jane"</a> (get it?) for Halloween wasn't enough. Rihanna shared this controversial picture at the start of the New Year, with the caption: "This nug look like a skull or am I just....?"
A video of <a href="http://www.tmz.com/2010/12/10/miley-cyrus-video-bong-hit-smoking-salvia-herb-pyschedelic-birthday-party-hannah-montana/">Miley Cyrus partying with a bong </a>just after her 18th birthday became instant tabloid fodder when it hit the internet in 2010. Her reps say that she was actually smoking the herb salvia.
Yup. That's Olympic Gold medalist <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/oly/swimming/news/story?id=3876804">Michael Phelps smoking out of a bong</a>, published in the now-defunct British rag News of the World in 2009.
Lady Gaga smoked a spliff onstage at a concert in -- duh -- Amsterdam. About marijuana, <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/09/19/lady-gaga-weed-singer-wondrous-marijuana_n_1897486.html">she told the audience</a>: "I want you to know it has totally changed my life and I've really cut down on drinking. It has been a totally spiritual experience for me with my music."
Last week, <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/01/05/justin-bieber-smoking-pot-photos-emerge-teen-star-partying_n_2415401.html">photos emerged </a>of what appears to be Bieber smoking marijuana inside a Newport Beach hotel room on Jan. 2. "Everyday growing and learning. trying to be better. u get knocked down, u get up," Bieber tweeted not long after the reports trickled through. "Back on tour tomorrow. ready to see u all smile. time to do what im supposed to be doing. performing. #BELIEVEtour."
UP NEXT: Successful People Who Have Smoked Pot
President Barack Obama has admitted to smoking marijuana and using cocaine <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/09/us/politics/09obama.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0">during his high school and college days</a>. "When I was a kid, I inhaled often," <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/24/world/americas/24iht-dems.3272493.html">he once told magazine editors, according to The New York Times</a>. "That was the point."
Apple co-founder Steve Jobs' use of LSD in his younger days is well-documented. He once called the experience <a href="http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2011/10/24/Steve-Jobs-10-Revealing-Quotes-from-His-Biography.aspx#zqEbfO6jmqxtvYKB.99">"one of the most important things in my life."</a> His use of the drug was even noted in an <a href="http://www.wired.co.uk/news/archive/2012-02/10/steve-jobs-fbi">FBI background check</a>, according to Wired.
President Bill Clinton famously admitted to trying marijuana while completing his Rhodes scholarship at Oxford. "When I was in England I experimented with marijuana a time or two, and I didn’t like it," <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/1992/03/30/us/the-1992-campaign-new-york-clinton-admits-experiment-with-marijuana-in-1960-s.html?gwh=B1648339901F9BBAADA0D9EC8C030343">The New York Times reported in 1992</a>. "I didn’t inhale it, and never tried it again.”
Virgin Group chairman and founder <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2012/12/06/opinion/branson-end-war-on-drugs">Richard Branson is an outspoken advocate of marijuana legilization</a>, once writing an op-ed for CNN that called for an end to the war on drugs. He reportedly asked <a href="http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0312/74111.html">President Obama during a White House visit if he could "have a spliff"</a> in 2012. "They didn't have any," he added.
New York City Mayor and Bloomberg L.P. founder Michael Bloomberg found himself in hot water when he admitted to smoking marijuana back in 2002, The New York Times reports. When asked by a reporter if he had ever tried pot, he responded: <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2002/04/10/nyregion/bloomberg-says-he-regrets-marijuana-remarks.html">"You bet I did. And I enjoyed it."</a>
Playboy founder Hugh Hefner credits his use of marijuana later in life with changing his perspective on sex. "I didn't know what making love was all about for all those years," Hefner <a href="http://www.foxnews.com/entertainment/2010/11/23/hugh-hefner-talks-monogomy-miley-cyrus-marijuana/">who supports legalization</a> is quoted as saying in <em><a href="http://www.amazon.com/High-In-America-Politics-Marijuana/dp/0670119903">High In America: The True Story Behind NORML</a></em>. <a href="http://www.druglibrary.org/special/anderson/highinamerica8.htm">"Smoking helped put me in touch with the realm of the senses."</a>
Billionaire investor George Soros is a known supporter of marijuana legalization and even wrote a 2010 Wall Street Journal op-ed rather straight-forwardly entitled <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303467004575574450703567656.html">"Why I Support Legal Marijuana."</a> His <a href="http://www.aim.org/special-report/the-hidden-soros-agenda-drugs-money-the-media-and-political-power/">use of the drug may be far less proflific</a>, however. He told Reuters in 1997 that while he had "enjoyed" trying marijuana, <a href="http://www.mpp.org/outreach/top-50-marijuana-users-list.html">"it did not become a habit and I have not tasted it in many years."</a>
Jimmy Cayne, former CEO of Bear Stearns, kept an<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/wall-street-cocaine-stories-2012-7?op=1"> antacid bottle full of cocaine</a> in his desk, according to the book <a href="http://books.google.com/books/about/The_Sellout.html?id=Jq030Cp_SjQC">The Sellout</a>.
The former vice presidential candidate and reality TV star told Anchorage Daily News back in 2006 that she couldn't <a href="http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/08/29/politics/politico/thecrypt/main4397109.shtml">"claim a Bill Clinton and say that I never inhaled,”</a> CBS News reports.
Bill Gates, chairman and co-founder of Microsoft, hinted at once using LSD and marijuana in a <a href="http://ei.cs.vt.edu/~history/Bill.Gates.html">1994 interview with Playboy</a>. Likewise, <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Gates-Microsofts-Reinvented-Industry-Himself/dp/0671880748">biographer Stephen Manes</a> wrote that "<a href="http://www.mpp.org/outreach/top-50-marijuana-users-list.html">Gates was certainly not unusual there</a> [around drugs]. Marijuana was the pharmaceutical of choice…”
Former Ronald Reagan economic adviser and current CNBC host Larry Kudlow is reported to have both smoked marijuana and <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2000/nov/29/workandcareers.madeleinebunting">used cocaine frequently</a> at periods in his life. After being fired from Bear Sterns in the mid-1990s, <a href="http://books.google.com/books?id=bOQCAAAAMBAJ&pg=PA38&dq=kudlow+cocaine&ei=VCR0S9XdEpG2NJDq0bsE&cd=1#v=twopage&q&f=true">Kudlow entered a rehabilitation program to deal with his cocaine addiction</a>, according to New York Magazine.
Super model Naomi Campbell <a href="http://www.nbcnews.com/id/7018893/site/todayshow/ns/today-entertainment/t/naomi-campbell-say-she-nearly-self-destructed-because-cocaine/#.USU_XVo6VOg">admitted in 2005 to abusing cocaine during her career</a>. "I have admitted using illegal drugs and some years ago I recognised that I had a problem" <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-99840/Naomi-confesses-drug-abuse.html#ixzz2LTfhOeI6">she was quoted as saying in The Daily Mail.</a> "I knew that it was wrong and had damaged me and I decided to try and sort myself out."
Peter Lewis, former CEO of Progressive Insurance, has both <a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/clareoconnor/2012/04/20/high-roller-how-billionaire-peter-lewis-is-bankrolling-marijuana-legalization/">smoked marijuana and lobbied heavily for its legalization</a>. After smoking weed recreationally in his youth, he started using it medicinally after his leg was amputated. “<a href="http://www.bostonmagazine.com/news/blog/2012/07/16/medical-marijuana-question-thank-78-year-billionaire-insurance-executive/">I was very glad I had marijuana,"</a> he told Boston Magazine. "It didn’t exactly eliminate the pain, but it made the pain tolerable — and it let me avoid those heavy-duty narcotic pain relievers that leave you incapacitated.”
Former California Governor and all around legend Arnold Schwarzenegger can be seen smoking marijuana in the 1977 documentary "Pumping Iron." He later said that he <a href="http://www.cbsnews.com/2100-207_162-529462.html">"did smoke a joint and I did inhale,"</a> CBS News reports.
In a 2009 lawsuit, it was alleged that Ponzi schemer Bernie Madoff frequently sent messengers to buy cocaine for <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1221984/Fraudster-Bernie-Madoff-cocaine-office-dubbed-North-Pole.html">"himself and the company."</a> Actually, before Madoff's $60 billion Ponzi scheme fell apart, his office was known as <a href="http://articles.cnn.com/2009-10-22/justice/madoff.lawsuit_1_bernie-madoff-kpmg-jp-morgan-chase?_s=PM:CRIME">"the North Pole"</a> because of the allegedly excessive cocaine use during work hours, according to CNN.
Essayist and author Aldous Huxley is said to have experimented with hallucinogenics, even writing an account of his use of mescaline in <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/04/20/10-celebrity-lsd-users_n_1440786.html">"The Doors Of Perception."</a>
Former Vice President and climate change activist Al Gore is rumored to have smoked marijuana often in college. However, Gore characterized his marijuana use as <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2000/feb/07/uselections2000.usa">"infrequent and rare,"</a> according to The Guardian.
Best-selling author Maya Angelou reportedly <a href="http://books.google.com/books?id=uVEK3f8ojJUC&pg=PA16&lpg=PA16&dq=maya+angelou+marijuana+use&source=bl&ots=iiUM7k5Uqw&sig=BlWCUSUqUIHOokcdjr3kA2GVrjg&hl=en&sa=X&ei=BHouUbW_FYm-9QSPooHABw&ved=0CFAQ6AEwAw#v=onepage&q=maya%20angelou%20marijuana%20use&f=false">"settled into a job as a waitress and began smoking marijuana with abandon"</a> early in her life, <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Angelou-Blooms-BioCritiques-Cindy-Dyson/dp/0791061779">according to a biography by Harold Bloom and Cindy Dyson</a>.
CNN founder and Atlanta Braves owner <a href="http://coedmagazine.com/2009/02/06/the-10-most-successful-potheads-on-the-planet-cool-enough-to-admit-it/">Ted Turner is rumored</a> to have grown pot in his college dorm room, according to COED Magazine (he's reportedly also a major donor to the Kentucky Hemp Museum). After banning cigarette smoking at CNN in the early '90s, a memo emerged that claimed it <a href="http://tobaccodocuments.org/pm/2024271877.html">"was common knowledge that Turner sits in his office and smokes marijuana."</a>
Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas smoked marijuana <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/1991/07/11/us/thomas-smoked-marijuana-but-retains-bush-support.html">"several times"</a> in college, White House spokesman Judy Smith said back in 1991.
Nobel Prize-winning chemist <a href="http://www.wired.com/science/discoveries/news/2006/01/70015?currentPage=all">Kary Mullis credited much of his success to his use of LSD</a>, according to Wired.
Next: Celebrities Who Have Used Drugs
"I have done just about every drug possible: cocaine, ecstasy, LSD and, my favorite, heroin." [The Mirror, 1996]
"I didn't live my life in the right way for politics, you know. I fucked too many chicks and did too many drugs, and that's the truth. That's gonna be my campaign slogan: 'I drank the bong water.'" [Newsweek, 2011]
<em>On smoking a joint to calm herself before winning her 1991 Oscar for "Ghost":</em> "Smoking cigarettes and pot every now and then are my habits. And so I thought, 'I've got to relax.' So I smoked this wonderful joint that was the last of my homegrown. And honey, when [Denzel Washington] said my name and I popped up, I thought, 'Oh, fuck.'"
"I mean, I still love a waterfall or the odd hallucinogenic drug. I liked mushrooms, which were legal until a year or so ago. If I had a drug of choice, it would be magic mushrooms." [The Guardian, 2007]