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Provincial Leadership Races In 2014 Carry Stench Of Defeat, Desperation

Why 2014 Leadership Races Carry 'Stench' Of Desperation
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Leadership races filled with optimism and hope for the future: 2013.

Leadership races carrying the stench of defeat and desperation: 2014.

There is a stark contrast between the leadership campaigns occurring throughout Canada at the moment and the ones that took place last year.

Then, provincial and federal Liberal parties were taking steps towards renewal as their political fortunes improved. There was, of course, the arrival of Justin Trudeau as federal party leader that seemed to boost the prospect of provincial Liberals from coast to coast.

But the selection of Brian Gallant as the new leader of the New Brunswick Liberals at the end of 2012 got things started. At last count, the party holds a double-digit lead over the governing Progressive Conservatives as the September election approaches.

In Quebec, Philippe Couillard took over the Quebec Liberals and immediately enjoyed a surge in support. That dipped as focus turned to the Parti Québécois' proposed secular charter, but in the end Couillard prevailed in this month's election.

The Manitoba Liberals chose their new leader, Rana Bokhari, in the midst of improving poll numbers as the longtime NDP government's support sank to new lows.

And in Newfoundland and Labrador, Dwight Ball is the most popular politician and on track to ousting the Tories whenever the next vote is called.

The leadership race in Ontario was the lone exception. Kathleen Wynne is still saddled with the baggage of Dalton McGuinty's time in office but the final verdict on whether she represents renewal or not will be given when Ontarians next head to the polls, likely in June.

Politicians jockeying to fill the leadership vacancies currently available in Canada are doing so in a completely different context.

The New Democrats in British Columbia and Nova Scotia need to replace leaders who were rejected by voters in 2013. The Parti Québécois has to find a new leader after suffering its worst defeat in four decades, and the Bloc Québécois leadership may go to André Bellavance by default due to lack of interest.

In Alberta and Newfoundland and Labrador, not only is the leadership of the each province's respective Progressive Conservative party up for grabs, but the premiership as well.

Alison Redford and Kathy Dunderdale stepped aside as their poll numbers dropped to historic lows. In both cases, the next leader faces an uphill climb to obtain a mandate of his or her own. The next vote in Alberta will only occur in 2016 but in Newfoundland and Labrador the new premier (likely to be Frank Coleman) has a year or less to overcome the 20-point margin Ball's Liberals currently enjoy.

By year's end, the PCs in New Brunswick may also be in need of a change of leadership if the election goes poorly. In Ontario, replacements for Tim Hudak and/or Wynne may be required. In both cases, party renewal and re-tooling will be necessary.

Eventually, however, these parties currently in dire straits will likely be on the upswing themselves. In New Brunswick, Quebec, Newfoundland and Labrador, and federally, Liberal parties had been dealt harsh rebukes in elections held between 2010 and 2012.

But some current leadership hopefuls may not survive the next blow to be present for the comeback.

Éric Grenier taps The Pulse of federal and regional politics for Huffington Post Canada readers every week. Grenier is the author of ThreeHundredEight.com, covering Canadian politics, polls and electoral projections.

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