A mathematical formula to assess happiness, based on the rewards people receive with respect to their expectations, has been developed by researchers at University College London.
Their study sheds light on the neural processes that lead to happiness, which until now were assumed to depend on life's events but had never been traceable from moment to moment in a mathematical formula that takes into account expectations during decision-making tasks.
At the starting point of the study, 26 subjects were asked to complete a decision-making task in which their choices would lead to outcomes involving financial gain or loss.
During the task, their neural activity was measured using functional MRI to trace signals from the striatum, which are thought to depend on dopamine.
They were repeatedly asked how happy they were, and researchers compounded this data to build a computational model that weighs self-proclaimed happiness against recent rewards and expectations.
This model was later tested on 18,420 participants in a smartphone app called "The Great Brain Experiment," developed by UCL researchers.
Together with his team, lead author Dr. Robb Rutledge of the UCL Wellcome Trust Centre for Neuroimaging and the new Max
Planck UCL Centre for Computational Psychiatry and Ageing designed a game called "What makes me happy?" accessible by means of the app to put their formula to the test.
The equation worked, predicting participants' happiness, although awards were merely game points and financial gain or loss was not a possibility.
"We expected to see that recent rewards would affect moment-to-moment happiness but were surprised to find just how important expectations are in determining happiness," says Rutledge. "In real-world situations, the rewards associated with life decisions such as starting a new job or getting married are often not realised for a long time, and our results suggest expectations related to these decisions, good and bad, have a big effect on happiness."
The study sheds new light on the relationship between happiness and expectations and indicates that it evolves from moment to moment, even during a simple smpartphone app game.
"Life is full of expectations," says Rutledge. "It is often said that you will be happier if your expectations are lower. We find that there is some truth to this."
In fact, expectations may affect happiness before the outcome of an event, and Dr. Rutledge emphasizes that his formula takes into account the positive expectations of a much anticipated event.
"If you have plans to meet a friend at your favorite restaurant, those positive expectations may increase your happiness as soon as you make the plan," he says. "The new equation captures these different effects of expectations and allows happiness to be predicted based on the combined effects of many past events."
Given that the phrase "money can't buy happiness" has become a cliché, scientists were not surprised to find that wealth accumulated during the experiment had little effect on happiness, which depends more specifically on expectations during decision making tasks and recent history of rewards.
Researchers are hopeful that their formula will lead to a better understanding of mood disorders and to enhanced treatment methods.
The study was published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
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