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OECD marks slowdown in Canada, even as other economies recover

04/09/2015 12:56 EDT | Updated 06/09/2015 05:59 EDT
The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development sees signs the Canadian economy is slowing in 2015, despite momentum picking up in the EU, the U.S. and Japan.

On Thursday the OECD released its composite leading indicators (CLI) for global economic activity, which anticipates turning points for national economies.

Canada's CLI – a composite of business and consumer confidence, export outlook and economic growth – is down several points from this time last year.

"The outlook is for stable growth momentum in the OECD area as a whole as well as for the United States, the United Kingdom and Japan. On the other hand, CLIs signal growth easing in China and Canada, albeit from relatively high levels," the OECD said in its report.

It has not yet revised its forecast for economic growth for Canada in 2015, which is set for an optimistic 2.2 per cent.

That contrasts with a prediction of about two per cent growth from TD Bank or 1.5 per cent from Capital Economics.

Oil price impact to filter through economy

Much of the economic pain is expected to come in the first two quarters of the year as the impact of low oil prices filters through the economy.

In addition to lowering capital investment, falling oil prices are dragging down business confidence.

In a report also released Thursday, TD Bank highlights the divergence between strong growth in the U.S. and U.K. and stability in Europe, with weakening in Canada as well as emerging economies such as China, Russia and Brazil.

Emerging economies are slowing, while advanced economies are picking up, said TD deputy chief economist Derek Burleton.

At the same time, the U.S. Federal Reserve is looking to raise rates, while the European Central Bank has eased them and other banks, including the Bank of Canada, may consider easing.

"The thing that follows from divergence is it's going to be a more volatile world financially despite the efforts of central banks," Burleton said. 

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