Canada’s unemployment rate will tick up to seven per cent next year, from 6.8 per cent today, as more people enter the workforce in search of a job, the research arm of TD Bank predicted in a new report Tuesday.
But while the country’s job market will be sluggish, it won’t be entirely hopeless over the coming year-and-a-half, TD Economics' Brian DePratto wrote.
How tough a job search you face will depend largely on the industry you’re in — and where you’re located.
“The majority of employment gains are expected to accrue to B.C., Ontario, and Quebec,” DePratto wrote.
“In contrast, little hiring growth is expected in the Atlantic Provinces, while Alberta is expected to continue to lose jobs through the remainder of this year and into next.”
That’s little different than the situation we’ve seen in the first half of this year, when Ontario and B.C. accounted for all the net job growth in Canada.
What line of work you’re in will also make a major difference. DePratto sees health care leading the way, adding an average of 22,000 jobs at annual pace over the next year-and-a-half.
“While somewhat slower than the gains notched over the past six quarters, the projected pace is nevertheless enough to make health care the fastest growing industry,” he wrote.
Construction will also be a leader in job growth, no surprise given the continued housing booms in Toronto and Vancouver. That sector will add jobs at an annual rate of 13,600.
Manufacturing — which according to Statistics Canada has lost more than 30,000 jobs in the past year — is expected to bounce back somewhat and start adding jobs, at an average annual rate of 12,000 jobs.
The resource industries, including oil extraction, won’t add much in the way of new jobs, but at least the job losses should stop, DePratto predicted.
TD Bank sees the jobless rate edging up next year because job growth — which it says will be a tepid 7,000 to 10,000 per month — won’t keep up with population growth and new entrants into the job market.
DePratto notes that so far this year, the leading industries for jobs have been accommodation and food services, as well as information, culture and recreation. Those two industries both rely in part on tourism, which has boomed in Canada in recent months, thanks to a low loonie.
The number of overnight visitors to Canada jumped by 13 per cent in the first five months of this year, compared to the same period last year, the Globe and Mail reported.
“The strong Canadian housing market also appears to have fed through to the finance, insurance and real estate service sectors,” DePratto noted.
Those industries added 13,300 jobs in the first half of 2016, he noted.
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