Immigration Minister Ahmed Hussen speaks during a news conference in Ottawa on Feb. 21, 2017. (Photo: Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press)
Asylum claims have been steadily rising since 2015; that year, there were 16,115, and in 2016 there were 23,895. As of April this year, the last month for which data is publicly available, there were already 12,040 claims in the system. The memo projects that claim levels will hit 36,000 this year and could continue to increase after that. "This scenario best reflects current concerns around increased volumes of claimants observed to date in 2017, and takes into account overall increases in asylum intake from 2015 to 2016," it says. The memo goes on to say that by the end of 2021, the new system inventory would grow to approximately 192,700 claims, equivalent to 133 months' worth of output from the board, or a wait time of approximately 11 years.
Claimants get $600 a month for social supportThe social support costs for claimants were $600 a month each in 2016-17, the memo said. At that claim volume, those costs could climb to $2.97 billion from 2017 through 2021. The other two scenarios examined were what would happen if intake for 2017 remained at the originally projected number of 28,000 claims, or what would happen if there was 36,000 claims with no growth after that. In the first scenario, wait times would be between four to five years; in the second, around six years. The IRB has been sounding the alarm for months over its ability to keep pace with the rising numbers. They cite a number of factors, including dozens of vacancies for decision-maker positions and also a legislative regime that requires hearings to be scheduled within certain timelines.
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"The rate of backlog growth presented in these scenarios could be mitigated in part by these efficiencies, but not avoided altogether," the note said. Last Friday, Immigration Minister Ahmed Hussen announced a wide-ranging review of the IRB, bringing in a former deputy minister in the department to study the system and report back by the summer of 2018. "Canada's asylum system must strike a balance between providing protection to those fleeing persecution and ensuring that the system is not misused by those who do not need Canada’s protection," he said. A budget for the program has not been established, but a spokesperson for the department said it will be paid for by them and the IRB.
"Canada's asylum system must strike a balance between providing protection to those fleeing persecution and ensuring that the system is not misused."
— Immigration Minister Ahmed Hussen/small>