The alarm bells were going off 20 years ago at the Rio Summit but few of us were listening. Six years ago, Al Gore raised the volume much higher with his film and we started paying a lot more attention, but we still didn't do much about it. And now the evidence is mounting that we might, in fact, be too far gone already.
Climate change is happening much faster than we anticipated; feedback loops are kicking in everywhere, totally dwarfing any of our own greenhouse gas contributions. Skyrocketing property damage from climate volatility is obliterating livelihoods, panicking insurance companies, and draining government funds. And the OECD just released a frightening study this week, suggesting that our constant debate, dithering, and lack of real response are now setting us up for a severe economic and lifestyle nosedive in the coming decades.
Maybe some of the cynics are right: No matter how much we curb our emissions now, the damage is already done and the climate will continue to destabilize. Maybe that whole "mitigation" concept was pure fantasy and we were a few decades too late. But should we just give up, enjoy the irresponsible partying a little bit longer, and then simply brace ourselves for whatever comes next -- or should we refocus our attention and energy on the things we can still affect?
Here are the two areas where we can still make an incredible difference:
SMART ADAPTATION: Life will be remarkably different in a climate-changed, energy-starved, and food-destabilized world. Fossil-based energy will become much more expensive, no matter what -- and the same will happen to energy-intensive foods (which account for the majority of our diet today).
As a result, our definition of quality of life will begin to change quickly. Energy and food autonomy, for each of us as individuals, for our cities or and for entire nations, will become an increasingly large part of what we think of as "wealth." After so many decades of steady decline, the importance and value of physical distance will start to increase again, rapidly.
Travel will become more expensive; size and space and suburbs will become less desirable. Our kids will drive and fly a lot less than we did, our city cores will become much more expensive, and our diets will become more diverse and more restricted at the same time. Those of us who start to anticipate and adapt early, will definitely do much better in the long run.
LEGACY: We know we didn't cause (all of) this, but we now understand what caused it and how we're still contributing to it. We're now officially the first (and likely the only) generation of conscious climate-change contributors in the history of mankind. And, just like it happened to every generation that came before us, there will come a point before we expire when our legacy will matter more to us than just about anything else.
Even if we can't stop climate change anymore, we will ultimately be judged on how we responded to it. And chances are we will not want to be remembered as the villain generation, the ones who didn't respond at all and knowingly continued to contribute to lifestyle misery of our kids and grandkids.
Even if we can't stop the spiral anymore, we can definitely slow it down and make a huge difference on how we'll be remembered. Without a doubt, this is becoming the largest single challenge to the progress and perhaps the very survival of our species -- and, as the first ones to discover it, we don't even have the moral right to ignore it....
I am genuinely optimistic that our paralyzing debates are nearly over. We are among nature's most resourceful, competitive, and image-conscious creatures with a genetic bias for action, so it won't take much more scary evidence before we're pushed over the tipping point of decisive action. We may not be able to reverse the damage anymore, but we can certainly figure out how to thrive in this changed world and how to protect our future "brand."
John Torrey: Why Religious People Must Speak Up About Climate Change
The Legacy portion got me thinking. Perhaps we need to put an apology in a time capsule. Just in case.
More fearmongering. Certainly, in North America, the evidence is that energy costs are likely to drop substantially, given huge increases in oil and gas reserves. Natural gas is currently barely over $2.00 dollars/ thousand cu ft. , with more reserves added every day. World oil reserves are adequate for years to come.
Blah, Blah ,Blah
Taking a realistic, adult approach is fear mongering, huh?
Sorry we disturbed you. You can go back to watching energy costs dropping.
http://quixoteslaststand.com/2012/03/16/some-lighthearted-reading-for-the-weekend-earth-day-predictions-of-1970-2/
The children have been allowed to hog the stage way too long.
Time for the adults to take it back.
Yes, don't let the facts get in the way of a good story.
http://quixoteslaststand.com/2012/03/18/senator-nancy-greene-raine-promotes-climate-realism-in-major-speech/
Actually it's happening slower. We are now in the bottom part of the confidence intervals of IPCC climate predictions, and are in "danger" of falling below their prediction bands altogether.
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/spmsspm-projections-of.html
They describe, at the ABSOLUTE MOST, 6 degrees of warming by the year 2099. That's in the worst-case scenario of the most pessimistic climate model they used. Most of their models predicted warming of about 2-3 degrees, maybe as high as 4.
In case you actually read the article, the OECD is now estimating that we could see up to 6 degrees of warming by the year 2050, if we don't start to seriously cut emissions.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5irNJ7SmH5SPlxJzpymvi53WU87xA?docId=CNG.abf0d7662b09ccadd00a3c9bfc4fd8df.7b1
That's 50 years earlier than the IPCC projections, which FAR out-strips most of the early 80s and 90s estimates about global warming that were only in the 1-2 degree range over that time period. Global warming is far surpassing the worst-case scenarios any scientists predicted, and that should really be a concern for everyone.
But the "global temperature" appears to have stabilized over the last 12 years:
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/glob/201202.gif
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/lo-hem/201202.gif
http://fabiusmaximus.files.wordpress.com/2012/02/20120131-uah-temp.png
Will the temperature now climb precipitously? Heck if I know. But given recent flattening of temperatures, the claim that "climate change is happening much faster than expected" is unsupported.
Sitting here in the southern part of the United States, I find your optimism misplaced. For anything substantial to be done, the United States has to take an aggressive lead. That is not going to happen.
We have an entrenched business dominated right wing party that commands a base of 40% of the electorate that isn't going to budge. We have another party that is so afraid it might alienate voters that it isn't going to stick its neck out. And worse, we have a nation of voters where a majority believe doing nothing is the best policy or flat out deny their is a problem.