2013-06-18T00:47:04-04:00 Merran Smith http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/author/index.php?author=merran-smith Copyright 2008, HuffingtonPost.com, Inc. HuffingtonPost Blogger Feed for Merran Smith Good old fashioned elbow grease. tag:www.huffingtonpost.com,2013:/theblog//3.3030216 2013-04-06T20:25:31-04:00 2013-06-06T05:12:01-04:00

Merran Smith http://www.huffingtonpost.com/merran-smith/
But even the most resolute climate hawks know that there is no black and white--only various shades of grey, usually in the form of messy trade-offs. It is important to acknowledge steady progress, but also place it against the context of the hard work that lies ahead.

It is in this spirit that we weigh the Government of Alberta's new 40/40 climate change proposal which, it must be noted, is just that--a proposal.

When you do the math, the scheme would compel large polluters to reduce their emissions by 40 percent, or pay the equivalent of $40 per tonne of carbon pollution that they pump into the atmosphere. While this is more than Ottawa had expected, many oil sands producers have already been making long-term plans assuming a much higher "shadow" price. In fact, such a move might even improve the bottom line of oil sands operators if it helps them get their product to higher-priced markets.

The province is not floating this trial balloon altruistically. It's doing so in a transparent effort to secure social license--the tacit "permission" of the people, if you will, both at home and in the United States--that it needs to build new pipelines pointing south, east, and west.

The industry has a long row to hoe. Escalating protests from environmental groups are having their intended effect. The Canadian public, which for years has been hearing about "responsible" oil sands development while observing just the opposite, has its guard up. A number of high-profile pipeline spills on both sides of the border haven't helped the industry's case. Nor has the fact that the oil sands are Canada's fastest growing source of carbon pollution. As the former CEO of the National Roundtable on Environment and Economy recently wrote, Alberta's carbon problem is Canada's, too.

So does Alberta's proposal go far enough? To answer that, we need to understand how much closer it takes us to where we need to be.

Our country has committed to limit the long-term average increase in the global temperature to two degrees celsius--beyond which point, things start to get really hairy. To have a 50:50 shot at achieving this goal, we need to stabilize atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases at no higher than 450 parts per million of carbon dioxide equivalent.

In 2010, in an effort to figure out what that might look like on the ground, the International Energy Agency (IEA) modelled what it called a 450 Scenario, which explicitly looked at Canada's oil sands. In this scenario, thanks to technologies like carbon capture and storage, oil sands production would continue to grow, cresting three million barrels per day of production in 2035. That is about 50 percent higher than today's extraction rates--but less than what Alberta regulators have already approved. A key assumption of the 450 Scenario was that OECD countries would adopt a carbon price, starting at $45 per tonne in 2020, rising to $105 per tonne by 2030, and meeting $120 per tonne in 2035.

But more recent analysis suggests that the carbon price must actually be significantly higher by 2020--on the order of $100 per tonne--if Canada is to meet the federal government's target.

Within this context, a pollution price of $40 in Alberta is a strong first step, but it should also be bolstered by a clear commitment and schedule to increase its price on pollution in the coming years. Until these subsequent steps are grounded in policy, the 40/40 toe in the water does not advance Alberta or Canada very far down the path at all.

To secure social license from a wary public and give businesses the certainty they badly need, Alberta will need to continue increasing its carbon price over time--and that commitment needs to be made now. Anything less won't take the political heat off of Edmonton, or the heat off the world.]]> tag:www.huffingtonpost.com,2013:/theblog//3.2820311 2013-03-06T12:56:05-05:00 2013-05-06T05:12:01-04:00

Merran Smith http://www.huffingtonpost.com/merran-smith/
Yet while Premier Redford undeniably has tough decisions to make, there are promising signals that she is looking beyond bubbles and examining a range of more enduring solutions to the province's challenges. These might include economic diversification, saving more resource wealth, and--as crazy as it might sound--a more aggressive climate policy.

First there's the matter of resource dependency, a conundrum that David Emerson knows well. "Energy and natural resource markets are notoriously volatile," the former federal conservative cabinet minister and chair of the Premier's Council on Economic Strategy once wrote. "The more government spending relies on such revenues, the more fiscal volatility and instability becomes embedded in fiscal frameworks."

How might Alberta stabilize its fiscal frameworks? The long-term solution is not finding more markets for oil, but diversifying the entire economy to smooth out some of the bumps on the natural-resources roller coaster. That's a tall order, of course. But where there is a will, there is a way--and there is a way.

The truth is, Alberta can capture new revenue, start paying down the deficit, restore its credibility as a responsible environmental steward, and use market forces to drive the innovation needed to gradually reshape the economy.

It can do it, in part, by increasing the price paid for carbon pollution.

Hear me out, because a window of opportunity is opening. The province is currently reviewing its greenhouse gas regulations under the glare of an international spotlight on the oilsands--presenting a clear opportunity to demonstrate true commitment to addressing climate change by significantly strengthening them.

Increasing the price paid for pollution (currently at $15/tonne) and taking a more sophisticated approach to deploying the associated revenue will not only begin diversifying the economy but will go a long way towards restoring the oil sands sector's diminished environmental standing in markets south of the border and overseas.

A stronger price on carbon pollution will drive market forces to get rid of that pollution. We will begin to see more efficient buildings, more renewable energy, better transportation systems, and higher industrial productivity - that is, more value produced per unit of pollution emitted.

To its credit, even in the face of the deficit, Premier Redford's government has begun a public conversation about the need to sock more resource wealth into savings.

As Madeline Drohan, Canadian correspondent for The Economist and author of the report The 9 Habits of Highly Effective Resource Economies, has written, putting resources revenues into a fund and using only the income from the fund for current spending "takes the government off the roller-coaster fuelled by resource revenues that soar and plunge unpredictably."

This echoes similar recommendations from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, the International Monetary Fund, and numerous other scholars and thought leaders.

A higher price on pollution will drive innovation and provide the province with sorely needed revenue. Couple it with complimentary efforts to diversify the economy and invest more resource wealth, and you have a dynamite combination. In all cases, revenue might be strategically invested to better prepare Alberta for the inevitable global transition to a low-carbon economy.

But of all these solutions, a serious carbon price just makes sense. It would not only deliver myriad environmental and economic benefits as outlined above. It would capture the attention and respect of the entire world.]]> tag:www.huffingtonpost.com,2012:/theblog//3.2378047 2012-12-31T08:15:19-05:00 2013-03-02T05:12:02-05:00

Merran Smith http://www.huffingtonpost.com/merran-smith/ #cdnpoli.

But there was more going on out there. Here are a few stories that we argue matter just as much to our energy future, but that didn't necessarily trend on Twitter:

1. We Could Make a Killing in EVs
The final report of the recently shuttered National Round Table for the Environment and the Economy pegs the current value of Canada's clean technology and clean energy economy at about $8 billion, and notes it could grow to between $36 billion and $60 billion by 2050. Much of that boom could come from plug-in hybrids, pure electric vehicles, and highly efficient cars. With supportive policy, EV investment could increase almost 15 times between now and 2050 -- from about $1.6 billion currently to over $24.2 billion in 2050. At the moment, we build muscle cars out in Windsor. Perhaps it's time to kick the tires on the new models?

2. The Grid Goes Digital
A quiet revolution is underway behind the poles, wires, and substations that blend into the background and that make possible services such as heat and light that we take for granted. Across Canada, utility companies are investing in fleets of digital sensors to complement the smart metres that, in many regions, now support two-way communication between power companies and customers. Soon, citizens will be able to sell the excess of clean electricity they generate themselves back to the utility, while power companies will be able to more accurately balance generation with demand. Result? Fewer flickering lights, reduced costs, and lower emissions.

3. Canada's Hidden Opportunity
The American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy identified a colossal opportunity for efficiency improvements across the country, when it ranked Canada second to last in energy efficiency out of a dozen major economies -- lower than both Brazil and China, and just ahead of Russia. Again, look at the opportunity: investments in efficient buildings could climb from current levels of about $1.5 billion to over $9.7 billion in 2050. Some near-term progress on efficiency did emerge this year: The federal government announced new standards for post-2016 vehicles that will compel automakers to dramatically improve fuel efficiency.

4. Canadians Support a Carbon Price
Credit Superstorm Sandy, or this summer's vanishing ice cap, or the spike in food prices from the collapse of U.S. crops, but this year more of us began connecting the climate dots. According to Environics Institute polling, a clear majority of Canadians now believe global warming is real, that government must take the lead in addressing it with new regulations and standards, and that citizens must help pay for the necessary actions through taxes and higher prices. According to the research, some 59 per cent of Canadians would support a carbon tax. Even the president of Royal Dutch Shell's Canadian division said she was down with the idea.

5. First Nations Unplugging From Diesel
By embracing community-owned renewable energy, a growing number of remote aboriginal communities are now meeting their energy needs without expensive, noisy, and polluting diesel generators -- saving money that could be used for economic development. British Columbia has invested $3.26 million to help 61 Aboriginal communities participate in the clean energy sector, including wind energy, biomass and run-of-river hydroelectric power. Next year, watch for a few deals in which First Nations will, for the first time, take a majority ownership stake in major clean power projects located in their territories.

6. Welcome to the United States of Arabia!
A bombshell report by the conservative International Energy Agency concludes that, due to lowered demand and new drilling techniques that will unlock shale oil and offshore reserves, our southern neighbour could become the world's largest oil producer before 2017. Uncle Sam could stop importing petroleum altogether by 2035. As the U.S. is currently the largest buyer of Canadian oil, this redrawing of the energy map presents staggering implications for our economy. As former international trade minister David Emerson wrote in 2011's Shaping Alberta's Future report, "We may have heavy oil to sell, but few or no profitable markets wishing to buy." Now might be a good time to place a few of our eggs in a few more baskets.

What will be the big story of 2013? Driven by multi-billion dollar deficits linked to the falling price of petroleum, several provinces may take serious steps to insulate their economies against commodity price swing by investing in clean technology and innovation. Also, Ottawa has repeatedly stated it will align its pollution policies with those of Washington. Well, guess who just named climate change and energy one of his top three priorities for the coming four years?





]]> tag:www.huffingtonpost.com,2012:/theblog//3.2323903 2012-12-18T14:00:45-05:00 2013-02-17T05:12:01-05:00

Merran Smith http://www.huffingtonpost.com/merran-smith/
That's what Shell Canada and the British Columbia provincial government showed Tuesday in walking away from a proposed coal bed methane development in a region of northwestern British Columbia known as the Sacred Headwaters.

In withdrawing its proposal, both Shell and the province recognized that the proposed drilling and fracking project — which would have involved drilling more than 4,000 wells across more than 400,000 hectares of wilderness — would have too great an impact on the salmon-based economies of local and downstream communities in the region.

Is this the beginning of petroleum companies and governments recognizing that there are places and cases where fossil fuels should be left in the ground? Where environmental, social and ecological impacts outweigh the traditional, economic bottom line? One decision doesn't suggest a trend, but we're hopeful that Tuesday's news suggests a new approach to energy development in the province.

Shell and the B.C government Tuesday demonstrated the kind of leadership that British Columbians have been seeking. According to Harris Decima public opinion research released this past summer, 63 percent of British Columbians said they wanted to reduce our reliance on fossil fuels like oil, gas and coal.

Controversy first erupted in the Sacred Headwaters region — the watershed of the Skeena, Nass, and Stikine Rivers — in 2004, when Shell drilled three test wells in the area, exploring for coal bed methane. In response, the Tahltan First Nation and downstream communities mobilized around significant concerns with the impacts of the proposed development.

As a result, the provincial government imposed a moratorium on coal bed methane development in the region, a ban that was set to expire Tuesday.

Instead of extending the moratorium, or resuming activities, Shell walked away to explore other opportunities elsewhere, in less sensitive ecosystems. In response, the B.C government is set to announce that it won't allow any further exploration or development of petroleum or natural gas in the region, making the moratorium effectively permanent.

Local First Nations are now looking to develop clean and renewable energy in the region, and are keen to support development that is compatible with their salmon-based economy and cultural heritage.

I am proud that Clean Energy Canada at Tides Canada was able to support local efforts to create this solution, an example of how we can fulfill a positive shared vision of a prosperous low-carbon Canadian energy economy.


]]> tag:www.huffingtonpost.com,2012:/theblog//3.1964221 2012-10-16T05:36:31-04:00 2012-12-16T05:12:02-05:00

Merran Smith http://www.huffingtonpost.com/merran-smith/
Not that you'd know that after listening to Jordan Bateman of the Canadian Taxpayers Federation. In a recent article, Bateman suggests that rural British Columbians universally loathe the province's world-leading climate policy.

Bateman also rehashes the myth that carbon pricing unfairly punishes interior and northern residents, because they tend to use more energy. He is mistaken on both counts.

This past summer, the provincial government conducted a review of the carbon tax by inviting British Columbians to share their thoughts on what should happen next with the policy. Since its 2008 introduction, the tax has slowly risen to its current rate of $30/tonne, which adds about seven cents to a litre of gas.

Enter the Better Future Fund. Through the site, my organization, Clean
Energy Canada -- along with the David Suzuki Foundation, the Pembina Institute, the B.C. Sustainable Energy Association, and Organizing for Change -- sought to engage citizens on how an expanded and strengthened carbon tax might benefit their communities.

The response was amazing. In a little over three weeks in August, more than 1,700 British Columbians sent letters through the site asking their government to not only retain the tax, but strengthen and expand it. Roughly one third of those responses came from northern and interior communities, which approximates the distribution of B.C.'s population.

Here's a clickable and zoomable map showing where those letters of support came from.

Each letter sent to the government through the Better Future Fund site also went to our team. And when we flip through them, it is easy to see the passion and pride that northern residents have for the carbon tax:

"We already claim to be The Best Place On Earth," wrote Jordan Carlson, from Prince George, B.C., in calling for a strengthened and expanded tax. "Let's make it TRUE."

Another letter sent from the heart of the northeast, centre of the province's booming natural gas sector, called the carbon tax a "huge step in the right direction for our province and for the planet." Still another northerner lauded the policy for "setting an example for other jurisdictions and encouraging them to take a similar leadership role against climate change."

Those letters, and many dozens like them, echo the one sent to the carbon tax review committee by Mike Bernier, the mayor of Dawson Creek, B.C., which is located at "mile zero" on the Alaska Highway. "The carbon tax is one tool in B.C.'s toolbox that will allow B.C. to achieve its climate action objectives, while still maintaining a strong economy," said Bernier in an August letter to the province.

Clearly, plenty of northerners see an important role for B.C.'s carbon tax.

Now let's look at the charge that the carbon tax is unfair to northerners. It is true that rural residents grapple with a colder climate and longer distances, and as a result often burn more fuel for transportation, home heat, and more.

That's exactly why the province includes a $200 annual carbon-tax credit for all homeowners outside of the Capital Regional District (Victoria), Metro Vancouver, and the Fraser Valley Regional District. That adds up to an estimated $77 million awarded to these citizens in 2012/2013 -- which is seven percent of the overall revenue collected by the carbon tax.

That's on top of low-income tax credits of $190 million, and personal income tax cuts of $228 million, spread across the province over the same period.

Taking the Peace Region as an example, the average household produces 11 tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions for heating and transportation according to data from the province. That's a bit higher than the eight tonnes produced by the average Metro Vancouverite, but the extra $90 paid in carbon tax is more than offset by the northern credit.

Whether you drive a duallie pickup truck or a SmartCar, the benefits are the same. Climate leadership, including the carbon tax, helps secure a better future for all British Columbians.]]> tag:www.huffingtonpost.com,2012:/theblog//3.1730404 2012-08-03T10:50:40-04:00 2012-10-03T05:12:02-04:00

Merran Smith http://www.huffingtonpost.com/merran-smith/
But the Council of the Federation meeting of provincial premiers -- which wrapped up last week in Halifax, Nova Scotia -- did hit an important milestone: It placed the opportunity of the low-carbon transition and the imperative to finally do something about climate change squarely at the center of the Canadian energy agenda.

Canada's provincial premiers closed out the two-day conference by committing to "a more integrated approach to climate change, reducing greenhouse gas emissions and managing the transition to a lower carbon economy."

That will doubtless please the more than 700 companies and organizations that recently came together to urge leaders to come up with a plan that would transition Canada to a clean and renewable energy economy. The eclectic group ran the gamut from oil sands workers to environmentalists, faith leaders to venture capitalists, from First Nations councillors to assembly-line workers.

They weren't alone; a Harris Decima poll released the first day of the Halifax meeting suggested that Canadians want an energy strategy that fights climate change and reduces the nation's dependence on fossil fuels. According to the poll, two-thirds of Canadians believe a national energy strategy should reduce the country's dependence on oil, gas, and coal (66 per cent pegged this as a "top" or "high" priority for such a plan.)

Meanwhile, only 33 per cent of those surveyed thought that expanding oil and gas exports should be a top or high priority. This is interesting because many of the energy strategy conversations to date have focused on fossil fuel exports as an energy strategy's raison d'etre.

It appears the premiers were tuning in. The idea of a Canadian energy strategy is now moving forward with climate change on the agenda. Provincial energy ministers will evidently now be given the mandate to address carbon reductions -- which historically has fallen outside their portfolios.

This regional interest is encouraging, because Canada's federal government has shown little -- if any -- interest in seriously addressing climate change or boosting the nation's participation in the global low-carbon economy, which is expected to crest $3 trillion before the end of this decade.

Canada's provincial energy ministers will now pick up the energy-strategy conversation. Early next month, they'll meet in Prince Edward Island. It will be interesting to see the extent to which they next raise the bar.]]> tag:www.huffingtonpost.com,2012:/theblog//3.1536359 2012-05-22T18:29:33-04:00 2012-07-22T05:12:24-04:00

Merran Smith http://www.huffingtonpost.com/merran-smith/
That's the takeaway of a recent national poll, published earlier this month in the trade magazine Alberta Oil. But it's received little attention anywhere else.

This past winter, Leger Marketing randomly selected more than 1,400 Canadians from every region of the country except the North, and asked them a series of questions regarding their views on energy, including their appetite for a national energy strategy.

Alberta Premier Alison Redford has recently come out in support of a Canadian energy strategy. In January, she told the Economic Club of Canada that, while clean energy and efficiency would be important elements of such a plan, it should at its core enable new pipelines.

"Forging stronger links with Asia will be a key part of any Canadian energy strategy," Redford said.

The Alberta Energy survey is the first strong indication that Canadians are not only ready for an energy strategy, but that they feel it should help transition the nation to cleaner energy. Key findings:

• A full 92.1 per cent of Canadians agreed that developing a national energy strategy needs to be a public priority, and 85.1 per cent of Albertans agreed.



• Some 72 per cent of those surveyed agreed that "Any national energy strategy should be focused on reducing our reliance on non-renewable energy." (Even in oil-rich Alberta, 65.3 per cent agreed with this statement.)



• 83.7 per cent of those surveyed felt that, when it comes to a national strategy, "Energy in all its forms needs to be considered."



• Just 26.6 per cent of those surveyed agreed with the statement that "Canada is a leader in green energy technology." Meanwhile, 38.4 per cent didn't answer, while 35 per cent of respondents disagreed.



• 81.2 per cent agreed with the statement "Are you concerned about Alberta oil sands greenhouse gas emissions?" (74.9 per cent of Albertans were as well.)



• Only 32.2 per cent agreed that "Economic benefits of oil and gas development outweigh environmental concerns." 27 per cent didn't answer the question, and 40.8 per cent disagreed.

Earlier this year, my team hosted a series of workshops across the country with business, academic and other non-government leaders. They told us that if we want Canada to remain strong and prosperous, we must make a plan to shift from the oil-focused economy we have today, to the clean energy economy we want and need tomorrow.

The Alberta Oil survey findings suggest that the general public is, to a large degree, on the same page.]]> tag:www.huffingtonpost.com,2012:/theblog//3.1515961 2012-05-15T12:39:29-04:00 2012-07-15T05:12:09-04:00

Merran Smith http://www.huffingtonpost.com/merran-smith/ photograph is fashioned from a circle of cardboard, and features a three-bladed wind turbine and the words "let's go." We can see a pair of hands grasping the sign, but not the person holding it -- who appears to be standing on some sort of gantry or catwalk. Behind him or her, in the background, is a petroleum upgrading facility.

"I am an oilsands worker, and risked my job to take this picture," says the caption on the image, which was taken in support of a recent global climate-change campaign, and which is now going viral on the web. "Myself, along with the majority of my co-workers are ready for a renewable energy revolution."

It is an arresting image, capturing a quiet act of dissent and call for change direct from the roaring industrial heart of northern Alberta. What makes it even more poignant is the fact that the revolution the anonymous oil worker calls for is already underway.

Canada just hasn't yet shown up.

A Bloomberg New Energy Finance report released last month reveals that worldwide clean energy investment continued a near-decade-long rally in 2011, rising 6.5 per cent to a record $263 billion. Last year, global investments in electricity for renewable electricity generation outpaced those of fossil fuels such as coal, oil and gas.

Canada increased its share of clean-energy investment in 2011, Bloomberg notes, boosting its stake by 4.4. per cent to $5.5 billion -- largely the result of provincial policies such as the Green Energy and Economy Act, which is driving wind and solar build-out in Ontario.

But our country does not even crack the top 10 of G20 economies investing in the energy of the future. While others jockey for leadership spots in the ongoing global shift to energy that is clean, renewable, abundant, and largely locally available, we are trailing the pack behind Brazil and Spain.

It doesn't have to be this way. Canada can and must leverage its oil wealth to ensure our country remains competitive in a world that is working to dramatically reduce its appetite for our fossil-fuel resources. By 2020, the global market for low-carbon goods and services is expected to crest two trillion dollars.

As an increasingly polarized pipeline debate dominates the airwaves and headlines, one common thread emerges: Canada needs a plan to capture a larger share of this new clean energy opportunity, and accelerate our transition to an efficient, prosperous low-carbon economy. More and more organizations, sectors, and leaders are calling for a more responsible and truly long-term approach to energy development and job creation.

Earlier this week, Canada's environment commissioner confirmed that the federal government has no real plan to meet its Copenhagen Accord commitment. We agreed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to a level that will, at minimum, limit global warming to two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial level. Now it is time to make good, and a Canadian energy strategy represents our best opportunity to do so.

Over recent months, my team has traveled the country, consulting with a wide range of environmental, business, academic, faith, and health leaders. They all told us the same thing: Any Canadian energy strategy must recognize that the world is changing rapidly around us. We either put in policies such as this that allow us to slowly but surely reinvent our economy for clean energy future, or face profound uncertainty and risk.

Speaking on behalf of his colleagues, the anonymous oil worker who bravely posted his snapshot on Flickr perhaps said it best: "We want jobs that provide long term economic, social and environmental sustainability for ourselves, our country and our planet."

A plan to do so is within reach. Let's go.]]>