As a political analyst, I can comprehend the plausible geo-strategic and political reasons to explain why, despite international recognition for the Syrian National Coalition, the reality on the ground will change little. And why, despite the over 60,000 Syrians killed, the red line for the international community remains the use of chemical weapons.
The use of chemical weapons sets a dangerous precedent in a region with significant stockpiles and plenty of conflict. By labelling this as the red line, international governments are trying to send a warning signal to all regional players about the boundaries of acceptability.
I can also understand the Obama Administration's quick move to identify the extremist group, Jabhat al-Nusra, a terrorist organization. At one level, the move can be seen as a strategy to quell a testy Congress that had become obsessed with the government's failure to predict a blowback of radicals in Libya who took the life of state department employees. Recognizing the Nusra Front as a terrorist organization, before the U.S. government acknowledged the Syrian National Coalition as the recognized representative of the Syrian people, reassured Congress -- and the world -- that the Obama Administration would not ignore extremist forces.
At the same time, the U.S. has resisted labelling the Assad army as a terrorist organization, a move that has enormous implications if there is a negotiated solution to the end of this crisis. The U.S. government is keenly aware that it failed in Iraq by encouraging de-Baathification following the removal of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein. Keeping the Syrian army off a terrorist list will allow some elements of the brass to play a "legitimate" role in a new Syria and encourage more defections within the armed forces and Assad regime in the coming months.
But, these so-called geopolitical explanations are also excuses for inaction.
The sad truth is that many more Syrians will die and the international community, including us analysts, will find plenty of reasons to justify inaction. None of these reasons will comfort Syrians who remain perplexed by why the world ignores their plight, day after day. Over half a million people have fled the country, an average of over 800 a day, with millions of others trapped and internally displaced. There is an unknown number of political prisoners, but estimates of 25,000 are noted, being held in Assad army camps. Nearly 20 children have been killed nearly every single day in Syria over the past two years.
But, while the geopolitical considerations for inaction are many, reasons to act are plenty as well. Inaction can lead to long-term consequences. Thirty-six per cent of the Syrian population are children under the age of 14, and 24 per cent of the population is between the ages of 14-24, according to the World Bank. Not only is their education interrupted, but they are living without homes and with increased hopelessness. The long-term psychological damage on an entire generation of Syrians has yet to be played out.
Syria is being destroyed, one beautiful city after another, right before our eyes. Schools, hospitals, parks, private businesses, and entire public infrastructure are completely gone. There are fewer homes and places of work for Syrian refugees to return to, with each passing day.
Already, this instability is spilling into Lebanon. Already, this helplessness has taken root in extremism. It's been too long that we've tried to justify our "Syria strategy."
How many Syrians must die for the world to act?
This article first appeared on Syria Deeply.
Follow Bessma Momani on Twitter: www.twitter.com/b_momani
When intervention comes before people are truly ready, it will lead to accusations by the other side (worldwide) of interference which will then be a rallying cry of anti(fill-in- the -country) for the majority again.
By all sides! Certainly not academy award but still.
How come Bahrain with a lot stronger opposition or even Yemen or Saudi Arabia or Egypt do not turn to armed resistance but Libya or Syria right away it turns to a blood bath and civil war.
I feel sad for ordinary Syrian people who are caught between bad and worst, there is no hope in horizon for them, unfortunately they have become pawns in others game.
But for the record to fight a dictatorship taking up arms is the worst option, if resistance has the numbers and they have the support of population behind them passive resistance is the only way.
Actors behind killing and blood bath in Syria are the same actors behind Iraq unrest and sectarian killing, that should give a clue who they are.
I can assure you that the people of Syria are not surprised by our behavior - they have seen what we did in Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Yemen, Egypt, Palestine, Libya, Tunisia etc etc...the list is amazingly long. They are well aware of what we do and how we do it.
The only real problem here is that the American citizens are observing an irreconcilable contradiction in the stories they are fed by their 'news' media. Hypocritical behavior is confusing.