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Christopher Sands

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Murder They Wrote: Stats About Canada's "Crime Wave"

Posted: 06/04/2012 5:07 pm

Canada is showing up in U.S. news media reports more than usual these days, and the stories suggest that a crime wave is underway. How can this be happening in sleepy, quiet Canada?

First it was the lurid reports of feet and limbs being mailed to political party offices in Ottawa. Police traced them to a sender in Montreal, indentified as Luka Rocco Magnotta, now arrested in Berlin. Magnotta is a photogenic ex-model and sometime adult film star whose biography is perfect for media sensationalism.

Then we heard about a food court shooting at the Eaton Centre mall in Toronto that wounded six and resulted in one death.

Is this a trend? Is Canada no longer the safe place that many Americans perceive it to be?

There are two issues here: the crime rate, and the perception of the crime rate. Crime rates, as captured in statistics, tell us that the level of crime in the United States and Canada is consistent over time. Using the murder rate as a leading indicator of crime -- certainly the crime rate that most worries people -- it is notable that Canada's homicide rate has remained stable, about 600 per year, since 2006 even as Canada's population has grown.

With 10 times the population, the United States has far more than 10 times the murders each year. The average murder rate for the nation as a whole is roughly 150,000 murders per year. But that rate, too, has been relatively stable over the past decade.

Thanks to the 24/7/365 media cycle, our constant access to breaking news, and the old journalist's adage, "if it bleeds, it leads," we have a growing perception of crime -- especially sensational crime -- taking place all around us. Gallup surveyed Canadians, Americans, and Britons earlier this year and noted that in all three places, a plurality of respondents believed that the crime rate was rising.

Growing up in Detroit, I learned that perception is not the same as reality when it comes to crime. My friends around the country, and even people I meet today who learn that I grew up in the Motor City, think of Detroit as Baghdad without the palm trees and wonder how I survived. The city, which is frequently dubbed the murder capital of the United States, is not a shooting gallery.

Like fictional Cabot Cove, Maine where Angela Lansbury solved crimes every week on Murder, She Wrote in what would have to be a crime spree of historic proportions for such a small town, when we are watching crime and not participating in it as victims, we never think through the statistics. We just get caught up in the drama.

The point is not to minimize crime: it happens, and when it happens to you or someone you know, it is tragic and all too real. But for those of us who are only half paying attention, it is easy to get an exaggerated perception of reality when it comes to crime. Canada hasn't gone crazy and there isn't a crime spree underway. The Internet has just brought Canada's crime news to U.S. attention in compelling fashion.

Add that to the giant empty void of knowledge that most Americans have when it comes to Canada, and a few scary crime stories quickly become an epic spree of mayhem.

 
 
 

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Canada is showing up in U.S. news media reports more than usual these days, and the stories suggest that a crime wave is underway. How can this be happening in sleepy, quiet Canada? First it was the ...
Canada is showing up in U.S. news media reports more than usual these days, and the stories suggest that a crime wave is underway. How can this be happening in sleepy, quiet Canada? First it was the ...
 
 
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albertarick
These are questions for wise men with skinny arms
02:03 PM on 06/05/2012
Harper must need some ammunition to decrease the budget for his crime and punishment agenda.
12:37 PM on 06/05/2012
CPC voters seem to get off on the thought of people being punished. What they need to realize is that the Canadian justice system is not their own personal gratification machine.

Handling a criminal in a way that improves society is justice, making yourself feel better is revenge. If you have no personal connection to a particular crime and you still feel the need for revenge then you are a problem for society in your own right.
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lilkitten22
Be the change that you wish to see in the world
12:31 PM on 06/05/2012
No, it's just the media placing more attention on it, there's always been crime, and always will be crime because people aren't scared of the police and consequence unfortunately.
12:07 PM on 06/05/2012
Crime, like sex, sells, eh?
11:44 AM on 06/05/2012
People, please, step back and take a look at where this story came from- The Excited States of America. these people exist and thrive on media sensationalism! Its not worth the bother!
Years after 9/11 most Americans think the terrorists responsible made their way into the US through Canada.
11:32 AM on 06/05/2012
How can such a stupid error get through? 150,000 murders? If that's what you believe, you shouldn't write on this subject. If it's a typo, fix it soon.

And Canada has 1/9 the population of the US, not 1/10 (34.8 million versus about 313 million, almost exactly 9:1)
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Angus12
06:46 AM on 06/05/2012
Most Americans done know what's going on outside the block they live on let alone in another country.
01:47 AM on 06/05/2012
That's 15,000. Not 150,000. Five murders per 100,000 mean 50 per million. 50 times 300 is 15,000.

Canada has 10% of our population so their murder rate is about 40% of ours. Still much more peaceful, but please do not exaggerate.
09:29 AM on 06/05/2012
Yes, I think someone slipped a digit. The number is closer to 15,000 - just looked it up:

http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/cats/law_enforcement_courts_prisons/crimes_and_crime_rates.html
10:28 AM on 06/05/2012
Yeah, I wondered about that math too. I mean, the link he gives shows 15.2*1000 murders in 2009, which is 15,200. Not 150,000.
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CreepyThinMan
More dapper than Don Draper.
09:39 PM on 06/04/2012
Know what spurs crime? Unemployment and a lack of education. This is why if there is a so-called "crime wave" emerging, providing this isn't the usual right wing fear mongering, that it won't get any better until Herr Harper is out of office and we have a Government that works to improve the quality of life for Canadians by getting rid of NAFTA and bringing manufacturing jobs back while also increasing funding towards public education.
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MJinCanada
Safe from zombies until my 2nd cup of coffee
11:10 AM on 06/05/2012
In truth, if you match crime stats and governments, there is a small increase in crime during conservative governments that subsides during liberal ones.

I don't know if it's the programs, the economy or the attitude, but I don't think conservatives bring out the best in Canadians.
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CreepyThinMan
More dapper than Don Draper.
10:01 PM on 06/05/2012
No they don't and it's because they constantly try to trash our way of life.
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William Muller
07:32 PM on 06/04/2012
Wow. Canada with 600 murders per year and the U.S. with 150,000. If Canada had the same population as the U.S. we'd have 6,000 murders. With 150,000 south of the border you'd be 25 times more likely to get murdered there than in Canada. Gun control?