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Daniel D. Veniez

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Before You Blame the Oil Sands, Look at the Facts

Posted: 06/05/2012 8:00 am

If Canadians have learned anything from the recent musings of Thomas Mulcair and Stephen Harper's consistent abuse of democracy, it is that these two politicians are quite deliberately aggravating the fault lines that are unavoidably inherent in our vast country. This underscores the need for a renewed and revitalized Liberal Party of Canada that represents the sensible centre of Canadian values and traditions.

I have written elsewhere about Thomas Mulcair's dubious handle on economic reality. In doing so, I gave him the benefit of the doubt; I did not want to assign crass political opportunistic motives and tactical wedge politics of the kind Stephen Harper uses to such impressive, if cynical, effect. But I was wrong. Mulcair is clearly not a uniter -- critical to successful national leadership -- he's a divider. And Canada certainly does not need another one of those.

As a Liberal candidate during the 2011 federal election, many people insisted that I take a firm stand against Alberta's oil sands. They wanted my commitment -- written in blood -- that, should I be elected, I would call for their immediate shutdown of Alberta's tar sands. I simply wouldn't do that. I urged voters to think about what they were asking me to do. What, I asked them, would they propose to do with our commitments under NAFTA? Or how we should replace the 500,000 jobs dependent on the oil patch? How should we deal with an Alberta economy that would be decimated overnight by such a move? Not to mention the profoundly negative impact on the entire country as well as myriad legal and constitutional issues that would surely follow.

Their response was that the "government" should employ all those people to clean up the "mess" made by the "big oil companies." And who should pay for that, I asked? The government should, of course! How much do they think that would that cost and what would we do with those 500,000 people after they have cleaned up the mess? In all cases, my questions only elicited blank stares. This is not a fictitious exchange -- it really happened. Many times.

Whenever such an exchange took place, I wondered what I was missing. Why were people ready to insist on such a radical and destructive position when they had very few facts at their disposal? Why was it that provincialism appeared to trump the national interest? Why did so many appear to so abruptly disregard the well-being of another part of Canada?

Liberal leaders, the most recent of which was Michael Ignatieff, have devoted their lives to a strong and united Canada. They would never think of exploiting regional tensions for political gain. Quite the contrary. How easy it would have been for Ignatieff to slam the tar sands. He never did, nor would. And for that he paid a heavy political price.

If critics were honest about it they would acknowledge that even the dreaded -- and ultimately deeply misguided -- National Energy Policy was the consequence of sincere Liberal thinking about what was the best course for Canada as a whole. The commonly accepted mythology is that the NEP was some diabolical scheme to "screw the West". No it wasn't. Liberal governments were early supporters of the "tar sands". So while the NEP was bad policy, that's very different than deliberately sewing the seeds of division as a political strategy.

We should be sticking to the facts. Canada has more oil reserves than Saudi Arabia. Today, we are the fifth-largest energy producing country in the world. As Pulitzer Prize winning author of The Prize, Daniel Yergin writes: "If the oil sands were an independent country, they would be the largest single source of U.S. crude imports." Alberta's oil and gas industry supports more than 271,000 direct jobs and hundreds of thousands of indirect jobs in sectors such as construction, manufacturing and financial services, to name a few. It is a massive contributor of Canada's Gross National Product and a source of wealth for all Canadians.

Today, we appear at an impasse. Positions are entrenched and hardening and the stakes are substantial. Yet, on an issue of significance to Canada's national interest, our political leaders have not made any serious attempts to find a reasonable accommodation of interests, but have played to their political base and fueled tension and division. This is far from constructive.

In the past several years, regional factionalism has intensified at a disturbing rate in Canada. We've witnessed skirmishes between Newfoundland and Quebec over hydro electricity; cleavages with Ottawa on a national securities regulator; a widening chasm between jurisdictions on health care; a growing chorus of discontent on equalization; the unprecedented spectacle of premiers of various provinces at the climate change talks in Copenhagen attacking our national government on foreign soil; and more recently, a nasty debate about opening up Canadian markets for B.C. wine, rather than having a broader discussion of ever-present inter-provincial trade barriers.

The cumulative impact of a poor management of these seemingly isolated dossiers is tearing at the fabric of the country.

We must have an informed and rational discussion about the options for our future -- which includes strengthening Canada's economic and social union and diversifying our overwhelming economic dependence on the United States. But for that to happen, our mental model must change. It is the job of leaders to lead and constructively engage in that discussion.

To her credit, Alberta Premier Allison Redford is filling a gaping hole in a national leadership vacuum in her call for a national energy strategy for Canada for the 21st century. Worldwide demand and consumption of fossil fuels will continue to be strong for the foreseeable future. That is clear evidence that developing countries have been and remain on a strong growth path. For example, demand for energy in the next 25 years is forecasted to increase over 35 per cent.

The Pacific Rim and India will be among the largest consumers. They also need potash, coal, iron ore, timber, natural gas and wheat, as well as oil. Canada should be a major supplier -- not only to the United States -- but to world markets. It is vital to Canada's strategic and economic interest that our national leadership play a facilitating role. Sadly, they are not.

The question we should be asking ourselves is how do we get those needed products -- which includes product from Alberta's oil sands -- to a global market that wants and needs them, and how can that be done in an environmentally safe fashion? Mulcair's notion that Alberta is an environmental catastrophe that rides roughshod over current laws and regulations is an affront to the truth.

The other key question I believe we should ask ourselves is this: in light of that demand, can we tie that indisputable fact to a much broader economic development agenda for Western Canada? If we frame the question in that way, it opens up an entirely different set of possibilities that we should explore. Worldwide demand and consumption of fossil fuels and other commodities will continue to be strong for the foreseeable future. Canada is blessed with an abundance of resources that the world needs. This is not only a matter of building Canada's economic future, but sharing our bounty with a world. Particularly sharing with developing countries whose own desire for prosperity depends on our capacity to provide them with the materials they need to build infrastructure and power their economies. This is in Canada's strategic and economic interest.

We need a constructive conversation that doesn't pit Canadian against Canadian. At its core this conversation should be a matter of nation-building at its most fundamental and about Canada's contribution to the world. In their quest for political advantage, Conservatives and the NDP have lost sight of their ultimate responsibility to the national interest. It should serve as a reminder to Liberals that the ideals of national unity and centrist compromise in the drive to build a strong economy that epitomize our party are more relevant -- and urgently indispensable -- than ever.

 

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If Canadians have learned anything from the recent musings of Thomas Mulcair and Stephen Harper's consistent abuse of democracy, it is that these two politicians are quite deliberately aggravating the...
If Canadians have learned anything from the recent musings of Thomas Mulcair and Stephen Harper's consistent abuse of democracy, it is that these two politicians are quite deliberately aggravating the...
 
 
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
clearasmud
Obama Is Nothing More Than A Moderate Republican
08:06 AM on 06/12/2012
The Harvesting Of Petroleum From Tar Sands = The Dying Gasp Of A Civilization
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
clearasmud
Obama Is Nothing More Than A Moderate Republican
08:00 AM on 06/12/2012
Wonder how much that last barrel of oil will go for?
05:34 PM on 06/07/2012
Canada is an oil colony, we are shipping out of this country raw bitumen when we should be refining and value adding to that resource. We should follow the lead of Norway and the foresight they have shown in handling thier oil resources..
03:44 PM on 06/12/2012
Read my comment below where I wrote: "The big prize in the Conoco Phillips stake was the veto the deal gave Sinopec over any Syncrude decision to keep the jobs and investment benefits of upgrading and refining its bitumen here in Canada." We may not have the option now to act as cleverly as Norway.
04:28 PM on 06/07/2012
What economic future? If the planet becomes inhabitable and we can't grow food because our soil is full of salt water and we can't hardly breathe due to the horrible quality of air, how will we live? I agree we can't pull the plug on the tar sands overnight but we should have started making the switch to greener energies years ago. We don't have to stop producing oil completely but we have to majorly cut down and the truth is we're not even close to doing that. Placing great importance on the tar sands to fuel our economy is just not smart...actually it's suicidal.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
clearasmud
Obama Is Nothing More Than A Moderate Republican
08:02 AM on 06/12/2012
Truer words were never spoken. Fanned.
12:39 PM on 06/07/2012
People making the argument that our filthy energy project isn't as filthy as their filthy energy project drive me nuts. No one seems to be at all concerned with the real human and environmental costs being paid today, right now, by real people. Google "first nations & tar sands & cancer" and click on any of the links that pop up. These concerns go back to 2003 and research by Dr. John O'Connor, who was subsequently railroaded into obscurity. I suppose the reality is that if Alberta is prepared to sacrifice itself, there isn't much that can be said in its defense. Unfortunately, the west coast is going to be sacrificed to solve a deliverability problem. It really won't matter what percentage of GHG we think we have the right to belch into the atmosphere, or what the comparative size of the oil sands environmental footprint is after we've crapped in that bed.
12:07 PM on 06/07/2012
There are a lot of comments suggesting that oil sands bitumen should be refined in Canada. Can someone tell me if that's even a possibility now given the role of Sinopec in the project. In an Ottawa Citizen article earlier, Terry Galvin wrote about Sinopec's ability to challenge refining in Canada by Canadians. He wrote:

"The most jaw-dropping of all these manoeuvres involves the way-above-market sum of $4.6 billion that Sinopec paid for Conoco Phillips’ minority stake in Syncrude in April, 2010. Why was Sinopec so desperate for it? Syncrude is Canada’s biggest producer of synthetic crude. The big prize in the Conoco Phillips stake was the veto the deal gave Sinopec over any Syncrude decision to keep the jobs and investment benefits of upgrading and refining its bitumen here in Canada.

Can someone validate Terry Galvin's article?
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
07:51 AM on 06/06/2012
Another middle-of-the-road Liberal rant. This time for the investor. Regarding the environment, nothing new here, very short term thinking. Just business as usual for tar sands development.

"The question we should be asking ourselves is how do we get those needed products -- which includes product from Alberta's oil sands -- to a global market that wants and needs them, and how can that be done in an environmentally safe fashion?"

Environmentally safe tar sands extraction and processing, as with Ethical Oil, are oxymorons. A myth created and perpetuated by those that want the profits without responsibility.

If this blogger has learned anything about the science of climate change, ecology or respect for aboriginal rights, it is not evident in this article.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
clearasmud
Obama Is Nothing More Than A Moderate Republican
08:04 AM on 06/12/2012
I got news for you. The author of this piece is NOT a Liberal, at least not by my definition. Much too short sighted and business cozy.

Or, maybe "Liberals" are different in Canada?
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
05:58 PM on 06/12/2012
Liberals are always business cosy in Canada - a centrist conservative ideology You have to go to the New Democratic Party for labour cosy. The Green Party is for environment, but they don't forget their business allies either - you can't in a capitalist country.

The author, Daniel Veniez, was a former Liberal candidate.
01:01 AM on 06/06/2012
"Liberal Party of Canada that represents the sensible centre of Canadian values and traditions." With some reservations, I am basically good with that ideal. But one problem I have is exemplified in the next comment: "Thomas Mulcair's dubious handle on economic reality." I presume you also have issues with Mr. Harper's 'dubious handle on non-economic reality' -- including but not exclusively 'environmental reality.' In the measure that our era has been taken over by neo-liberal premises regarding "economic reality", it has abandoned wisdom as a guide for the human future. If a neo-liberal 'economic reality' is to dominate the Liberal Party, it will become little better than the Harper Party in unwisely destroying the moral and ethical foundations of a truly human future.
12:13 AM on 06/06/2012
He makes valid points. Those that say he doesn't simply prove his argument is right. Like it or not, the oilsands are a leading reason why Canada fared much better economicaly than much of the world. It's time to accept the golden goose and find ways to make it better for all of us.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
arachne646
No more hurting people--Peace
11:04 AM on 06/06/2012
The problem with the goose that laid the golden eggs, Peter, was that the owner starved. We may have a healthy economy, by some definitions, if we continue on the ever-increasing tar sands path. How will that profit Canada, when prairie provinces are dust bowls and tornado alleys, both coasts are hurricane zones, and no countries can support enough people to buy petroleum? Climate change is happening right now, and will get worse. The time to act is ASAP.
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07:30 PM on 06/06/2012
"He makes valid points."

To the uniformed.

"Those that say he doesn't simply prove his argument is right."

There is something very confused about this logic.

". . . It's time to accept the golden goose and find ways to make it better for all of us."

This statement shows, as the blogger does, a lack of respect and understanding for ecosystem dynamics. My concern is that other respectable, yet still uniformed Canadians, will accept this language without research.
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Turdinthepunchbowl
I float, therefore I am
11:37 PM on 06/05/2012
Again, Veniez you have set up a false dichotomy. In philosophy this is called a disjunctive argument: (1) Either A or B (2) Not- A therefore B. This is a logical fallacy because you give the public one of two options (A) 100% oil sands (B) 100% anti oil sands. When in fact there are many options: (C) Measured approach that places emphasis on sustained and ecologically prudent development, for example. The observation that you contextualize the argument between these two very restrictive options are expressed so (A) You have utter contempt for the public's intelligence and consider them fools (B) You're non compos mentis and have not the cognitive capacity to dress yourself or take care of your basic toileting needs. You see how disingenuous an argument this can be when you use a logical fallacy to restrict diversity of opinion and solutions?
09:14 PM on 06/05/2012
My concern is that China owns a larger portion of the tar sands than Canada does, the pollution is killing people and wildlife, and yet, our politicians still promote it for the good of our economy. Well, how good will the economy be when some of the population is too sick to work and draining health care? Who will work in the tar sands then? I guess that is why the temporary foreign worker and changes to immigration are being pushed through. China can just bring it's own labour force to work the tar sands.

Here are some articles to read about Dutch Disease, just so we can all stop giving Mulcair all the credit. At least he had the integrity to point out that something is wrong with promoting one industry over another.
http://www.tinbergen.nl/discussionpapers/09096.pdf
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2012/05/18/dutch-disease-study-thomas-mulcair_n_1528310.html
http://www.irpp.org/po/archive/nov11/bimenyimana.pdf
http://www.progressive-economics.ca/2012/06/01/dutch-disease-the-canada-us-exchange-rate-and-trade-with-asia/
http://rabble.ca/blogs/bloggers/christophermajka/2012/05/dutch-disease-denial-inflation-politics-and-tar

Tar sands sites:
http://oilsandstruth.org/
http://forestethics.org/tar-sands
http://dirtyoilsands.org/
http://www.pembina.org/oil-sands
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09:22 AM on 06/07/2012
The reason "Mulcair gets all the credit", is he is THE ONLY leader of a Federal Party bringing this to light. Harper isn't going to talk about it, and Rae said, hey stop trying to divide Canada. That is why Mulciar "gets the credit". He is the only one willing to take the issue on with a long term goal in mind. That is a fact. The fact the Libs are late to the party, if they are even coming, is their problem.
07:23 PM on 06/07/2012
I was trying to point out that the media seems to dismiss the fact that dutch disease is a very real thing by stating that Mulcair is "ill-informed." I was trying to convey that he was on the right track. That was what the second sentence "At least he had the integrity to point out that something is wrong with promoting one industry over another" was trying to clarify. Thank you for restating my point in a different way, along with CAPS for emphasis.
03:09 PM on 06/05/2012
How come the "radical and destructive position" is the argument that Big Oil should clean up their sites and follow stricter environmental guidelines?
11:29 PM on 06/05/2012
Don't know about reclamation? The Alberta government has a billion dollars in irrevocable lines of credit that oil sands companies pay. They complete reclamation and in 25 years or so will get it back as long as the work is good.
10:07 AM on 06/06/2012
So you put your faith in the oil companies to re-create Nature in 25 years? Good luck with that!
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
arachne646
No more hurting people--Peace
10:41 AM on 06/06/2012
Do they have a plan to remediate the tailings ponds yet?
This comment has been removed due to violations of our [Guidelines]
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lilkitten22
Be the change that you wish to see in the world
12:37 PM on 06/05/2012
How is this author Liberal? Maybe that's why he wasn't elected lol.
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09:23 AM on 06/07/2012
He is a Corporatist; he is very much a LPC Liberal.
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Greg YanickThompson
12:08 PM on 06/05/2012
Daniel , saying your using facts and then quoting the national association of petroleum producer,s as the source ?? those are not facts bud , most of us know that !!!.. try using scientific university studies for your facts on economic statistic,s or dare i even mention the pollution problem ,or that the whole mess in Alberta is already 75% china owned .. but here,s a message for yea from the BC majority .. we do not want an oil pipeline through BC ,or supertanker,s on the coast .. heck i ll leave it at that , but one other thing , if as you state in your article we are going to be using oil ,, OIL , 25 years from now you are greatly mistaken ,, we don't even have to be using it now if we actually had some political leader,s who were more than just puppet,s for old industry .. NASA has confirmed that cold fusion is now a reality , LENAR for short if you would like to Google it .. heck there are company,s in Europe bringing this and other technologies to market right now , freaking retail !!! Canada has a great future just not one controlled by offshore corporate interests .. jus6t a thought !
05:52 PM on 06/05/2012
Agreed. For a post which asserts that facts are required, they are few and far between. Lots of rhetoric, no insight. How about a discussion about energy and energy security? How about a discussion on climate change? How about a discussion on how to transition from oil to something else? How about a discussion on how to spread the wealth (not just the risks) of tar sands development? How about a discussion about the risks, and what the environment will look like when the oil is gone?
12:16 AM on 06/06/2012
It isn't a "majority". Ask residents of Kitimat who's house values are so low it's not worthwhile selling if they want the economic opportunities that come with the pipeline. It's so easy to sit at Starbucks in Vancouer and make silly statements with no real knowledge of what you speak.
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arachne646
No more hurting people--Peace
10:39 AM on 06/06/2012
I feel for the people in Kitimat if times are that hard, but the rest of the people who live on or near a rough coast are many, many times greater in number, and not just post-modern dreamers in Vancouver. Nobody who depends on the coast is willing to risk a supertanker spill, or a pipeline leak in the Fraser like the one in Alberta muskeg, just to accelerate climate change faster.
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Greg YanickThompson
04:39 PM on 06/06/2012
I do feel for the folks in kitimat .. but oil pipelines do not bring jobs to bc,ers anyway ,, other than the laying down of the pipe ,and a few hundred jobs if the empire forces in the terminal on the coast .. And on a personnel note there peter ,, I have spent my entire working life (35 plus years )on the coast fishing and tree planting ,I know what and who a spill would effect here where i live , So never mind the pristine marine wild life in one of only 3 temp rainforests in the world .. I would dare to say your comment was silly but if you are so strong minded as to attack someone you know absolutely about , Then get off you ass come to the coast and see for yourself .. rather than be told what to think by big oil,and a bought off government ..