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Killing Keystone Won't Reduce Oil Demand

Posted: 11/13/11 09:00 AM ET

Oil from Canada offers the United States energy security into the indefinite future.

The proposed Keystone XL pipeline from Alberta to refineries on the Gulf of Mexico coast offered the immediate promise of 20,000 American construction jobs and many more jobs in oil refining and distribution.

Yet this week, the Obama administration delayed approval of the Keystone pipeline into 2013 -- a delay that may well kill the project altogether, at great financial loss.

Why? One theory credits local opposition in the state of Nebraska, by Nebraskans who worry that a fractured pipeline might spill oil and contaminate the state's aquifer. Nebraska is one of two states that splits its electoral votes, and in 2008 Nebraska contributed one to Barack Obama's 365 electoral-vote landslide. Supposedly, Obama is eager to protect that single vote.

However, this Nebraska theory does not seem a very plausible explanation of the administration action. Even a very close election won't turn on one electoral vote -- especially since safety concerns can be assuaged by hardening and doublecasing the pipeline.

The true locus of opposition to the pipeline is not Nebraska, but California, where big liberal environmentalist donors have seized on the pipeline as a talismanic cause. These California environmentalists do not want to redirect the pipeline. They want to stop it altogether, so as to leverage an end to further Canadian oilsands development.

What will curtailing oilsands accomplish for the environment? Nothing. This is a big planet full of oil, and if the United States does not buy its oil from Canada, it will buy its oil from somebody else.

So long as demand runs high, oil will be imported and burned. And it's not like pumping the oil from the Gulf of Mexico, or transporting oil from the Middle East in tankers, is exactly environmentally risk-free.

Getting off oil means changing the way Americans use oil. That change requires a change in incentives: A permanently higher oil price that will encourage Americans to live closer to work, to build their cities denser, to prefer more fuel-efficient vehicles, to convert their bus and truck fleets to natural gas, and so on.

Price incentives work. The oil shocks of the 1970s cut American oil use dramatically. As late as 1995, Americans were still using less oil than they did in 1978 -- even as they drove many more miles.

High prices persuaded homeowners to switch to gas heat. High prices and well-timed deregulation shifted U.S. freight transportation from truck to rail. High prices jolted U.S. utilities to stop burning heavy oil to power electrical generators.

But after 1996, low prices ended this conservation era. Oil use surged for the next decade.

Yet markets continue to work. Higher prices since 2006 have again changed behaviour. Americans are driving fewer miles. They are retiring more cars than they buy. They are opting again for smaller, fuel-efficient vehicles. They are buying smaller homes, with a new emphasis on central city living. The recession has of course intensified all these trends.

They won't become ingrained, however, until and unless Americans accept that oil prices will remain high indefinitely. Which, in turn, means until and unless the United States adopts some system of standby energy taxes or carbon taxes.

Putting a price on carbon, however, is a concept the Obama administration and the Democrats in Congress indefinitely postponed all the way back in 2009. Such a step would have imposed costs on voters, and in bad economic times, the politicians flinched.

And hey, flinching from adding costs in bad times is a pardonable reflex -- if you are a politician. What is unpardonable is the willingness of environmentalists to accede to the political imperatives of their Democratic chums, and to join with the Obama administration in pretending that the United States can move off oil at zero cost. You see, it's only "big oil" that craves cheap gasoline -- the actual voters are the victims of the machinations of sinister corporations selling products that people want at prices that people can afford.

There are serious carbon tax proposals that would mitigate the costs upon non-affluent voters by rebating the proceeds in one or another kind of tax cut. But if you want to use less oil, then you must ensure that oil costs more. Ad hoc gestures like the Keystone cancellation change nothing -- except to sustain the status quo, with its dependence on oil drilled and carried from across the ocean.

Environmentalists have become adept at stopping things. A greener future requires the advanced countries to build things -- including pipelines.

This originally appeared in the National Post.

 
 
 

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01:50 AM on 11/21/2011
Setting aside the dirty nature of oil that is extracted from oil sands and the environmental hazard the pipeline poses to the states it passes through. Mr Frum is a typical right winger throwing out the normal Republican talking points totally disregarding the environmental impact a spill would have in support of big oil profits.
The few jobs that will be created by the pipelines construction are only temporary but if a spill occurred as the spill in Alaska by the Valdez and the spill in the gulf show us the damage to the ecosystems flora and fauna is often permanent changing the system forever.

Not to mention that the Great Plains Ogalala Aquifer overlaps the Colorado River watershed which runs through 7 states going as far west as California that is already experiencing water shortages and supply problems from human interference a spill contaminating the Ogalala Aquifer could have a devastating impact for much of the mid and western half of the United States.

What Mr Frum also fails to mention is that it really doesn't matter where oil is recovered from since all petroleum is now traded on the global market and would not be sold specifically here in the United States rather it is bought and sold on the global market by speculators that often times never even take possession of the futures contract but rather just store the contract and then turn the contract over to keep the price of petroleum artificial high.
01:23 AM on 11/21/2011
?
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Doug Brockman
10:55 PM on 11/20/2011
The corollary is Canada will find a market for the oil whether or not the US takes it-think China. You appreciate freedom of speech when you realize the Australian government just made it illegal for power companies to publicize utility rate increases for customers as due to new carbon taxes.
09:45 PM on 11/20/2011
The Canadians should build their own refinery and get the value added dollars for their economy! Afterall, it is their resource.
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ICanHasDemocracy
08:40 PM on 11/20/2011
You're right, the Koch brothers will continue to game the system regardless- but the Keystone/tar Sands Pipeline itself is the issue not the oil. A Republican Senator from Nebraska spoke out against it- it gives no benefit to Nebraskans and leaves a giant scar across the state. have you seen the net effect of a tar sands dig? It's not as simple as punching a hole through the earth-think strip mining instead. it's messy, inefficient, and tar sands oil does not yield the same light, sweet crude we are accustomed to seeing.
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Stilyagi
Making a board with a bigger nail in it.
08:14 PM on 11/20/2011
"What will curtailing oilsands accomplish for the environment? Nothing."

Bull. It will mean less risk to the environment. You're only trying to drum something else into people's heads because you have an agenda to carry out.

"This is a big planet full of oil, and if the United States does not buy its oil from Canada, it will buy its oil from somebody else."

No, it can produce its own oil. It doesn't have to buy it from anybody. They just don't want to destroy their own environment. They prefer we Canadians do it to ourselves.

What we need to worry even more about is how they are exploiting us for our water. Water is the new oil.
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suzdav
08:00 PM on 11/20/2011
We should be investing in alternative energy, NOT OIL. NOW.
the right and the oil companies are trying to wring as much money out of us as they can before the inevitable starts happening. We can't allow them to get away with it.
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ruleoflaw66
And I'd opt out of 'fans' too if I could.
07:48 PM on 11/20/2011
As Al Gore called it, "The dirtiest fuel on the planet" and you say not mining it won't help?

Gee, maybe we should just dig a big ditch all way to Texas and let it flow like a river, then, hmmm?
07:40 PM on 11/20/2011
his project is just another one of the many bad ideas and opportunistic situation's that was born of, and pushed through using, the fear created by the economic crash of 2008 just like all the austerity measures the right wing has forced upon Americans that stopped a recovery in it's tracks simply to push political policies that where meant to ensure Obama is a one tern president.

Until Washington decides to repeal the Commodities Futures Modernization Act of 2000 and ban Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley as well as hedge funds from bidding on oil for profit and undertake an isolationist economic policy with respect to the extraction and refinement and sale of petroleum products for use in energy where oil comes from is insignificant and will have no effect on the globally set market price. It's all a big lie that the right wing Republicans and Democrats who support big oil throw out there to enrich themselves through there investments and pay to play obligations resulting from campaign donations.
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07:31 PM on 11/20/2011
Nothing more ensures the status quo then "carbon taxes".

Forcing people to pay more only justifies the hyperinflation in oil prices due to come because of Ben Bernanke 0% bailout policy for market spculators.
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ETexOpinion
05:35 PM on 11/20/2011
We are reaching a tipping point in the oil era. Our planet has gained immensely from using it in all forms and now we see our planet dying from it. There is this irritating law of nature that says we can't have our cake and eat it too. Did you know that amazingly strong and durable plastics can be made from hemp? In fact, Ford made its first cars from hemp plastic which has been described as being many times more durable than steel. It is also biodegradable and recyclable. Sound crazy? Or does it sound entirely plausible that the oil industry has worked hard to keep information like this away from the public's eyes for decades because it's awful hard to monopolize the growing of agriculture products and therefore hoarding such a resource for profit. It helps too that hemp's cousin (marijuana) has consistently been kept illegal therefore growing hemp has too because it is too difficult to detect the two from each other. Oh yeah... A diesel engine can run on hemp oil... Darn, another undercutting of the dinosaur oil industry. Ooops
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Josh Steinhauer
Ex-Patriot, Europe
04:18 PM on 11/20/2011
The problem with oil is people fail to realize that oil is used in just about every facet of our lives from the iPhone you have in your pocket, to the laptop you are reading this online from. Oil is not just used for gasoline, it is used for making plastics, fertilizers, and just about everything else that uses a polymer.

Changing to Green Energy is great, but energy is not the major source of oil consumption. It is the production of plastics, polymers, fertilizers and other aspects that oil is used in that will continue to keep demand high.

The other aspect people fail to look at is the global population. The world just hit 7 Billion people this fall, that’s 7 Billion people consuming resources that largely are derived from oil. As the world population continues to grow so will the demand for oil. If you want to talk about reducing the demand of oil, then you need to talk about reducing the world’s population to address the cause of the demand.
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Uncle Bill
ex-lawyer and teacher
03:30 PM on 11/20/2011
Frum simply assumes away facts that don't suit his narrative- I live in Nebraska and have many friends and family who oppose the Keystone XL Pipeline.  Some oppose only its path over the ecologically and economically sensitive Sandhills while others oppose it because it is not intended to serve US markets it is intended to serve exports.  The recent decision to re-engineer existing pipelines that flow from West Texas to Oklahoma refineries for a reversal in flow and connection wth Gulf ports for export illustrates this perfectly- the companies have decided that oil product prices are too low in the midwest because supplies of West Texas Intermediate more than sufficient to meet demand and therefore oil companies are looking for a cheap means to export to overseas markets..  This will allow them to use demand from overseas markets to raise prices in the midwest.  Frum also ignores the fact that the money and political influence promoting the Keystone XL pipeline is overwhelmingly from outside Nebraska.
Lastly- it is not the fear of the oil itself might be an ecological disaster- it is the solvents that must be added to what is in essence, asphalt, to allow it to flow in the pipeline.  In the event of a breakage in the pipeline, the heavy asphalt components of the flow will be localized, but the solvents (which Keystone assures us are perfectly safe, but won't disclose what they are) will move into the aquifer, just as MBTE additives to gasoline (which the oil companies assured us were perfectly safe) has polluted aquifers in California.  MBTE was used to avoid the cost of adding ethanol as an oxygenator to gasoline since ethanol was not produced by oil companies and MBTE was.
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Anybodyseenthepopos
אני כלום בלעדיהם
03:25 PM on 11/20/2011
PS. Hey, how bout that giant "solar spill"...
03:21 PM on 11/20/2011
We've had extensive experiences with logging and mining where the immediate area is for a time reduced, but restoration is part and parcel of any operation enforced by the Provinial and Federal governments. For those who wish to follow up, the the Sudbury Basin home to huge nickle deposits where ore was roast/processeded above ground and obliterated the landscape so much so, the orignal astronauts use the area for moon-walk training. To-day nature is replenished. Logging implies re-seeding to the point where the new growth has greater yeild than monther nature allowed and the same will be true with the oil sands. A month ago the Minister of Natural Resources made a report ot Parliament that the oil sands mining operation is on time with the reclamation protocols. We build our nation on natural resources and know something about the consequences sans discipline, Albertas hold about $1 billion of the mining companies cash as a start....http://www.oilsands.alberta.ca/reclamation.html. Nobody is gonna skip.