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Think the U.S. Election Is About the Economy? Not.

Posted: 05/14/2012 12:42 pm

Barack Obama is foreign.

Oh yeah? Mitt Romney is a bully.

Think the U.S. presidential election will be about the economy? Think again.

On the economy, both presidential candidates are marked with indelible vulnerabilities.

President Obama first. He inherited the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. He has presided over a weak and fitful recovery.

During the recession of 2008-09, the U.S. lost more than 8 million jobs, net. Since 2009, the U.S. has gained only about 4.5 million jobs, net. Yes, the unemployment rate has improved somewhat since January 2009 -- but largely because so many people have quit searching for work. Among Americans of prime working age --16 to 54 -- the percentage in work today is the lowest since 1983, near the very beginning of the mass entry of married women into the workforce.

So Obama cannot run a "morning in America" campaign for recovery. Too many Americans are still shrouded in the pre-dawn murk.

Yet challenger Mitt Romney finds himself not much better positioned than incumbent Barack Obama.

His own job-creation record as governor of Massachusetts was not especially impressive. As a CEO, he was better known for downsizing purchased companies than for new hiring. And he has been pressed by his party to campaign on a platform that emphasizes radical spending cuts for the young and the poor and another big round of upper-income tax cuts on top of the Bush tax cuts of 2001 and 2003.

No wonder that both campaigns are looking for something else to talk about.

Over the past couple of weeks, they have found it -- or, more exactly, it's been found for them.

On Thursday, the Washington Post reported an incident that occurred at Mitt Romney's prep school back in 1965. Romney, then an 18-year-old senior, had led a group of students in a hazing of a younger boy who wore his long hair dyed blond. "That's just wrong," Romney supposedly said. The Romney-led group pinned the boy to the ground. As the boy cried and called for help, Romney forcibly clipped his hair.

Stack that story on top of previous stories about Romney "liking to fire people" and caging his dog atop the roof of his car, and a narrative is born! The sober, responsible Romney has been transformed into Biff from Back to the Future to Jack from Lord of the Flies.

The anti-Obama side, meanwhile, has a constructed narrative of its own.

In Obama's long memoir, Dreams From My Father, he mentions that his Indonesian stepfather introduced him to dog meat. That old story was dusted off last month as a new revelation, kicking off an explosion of jokes about #obamadogrecipes and #obamaeatsdog.

Obama had a Kenyan father and an Indonesian stepfather. Raised in Indonesia and then Hawaii, he did not set foot on the American mainland until his freshman year in college. As a student at Columbia, his closest friends were from Pakistan. One of his most admired professors was a militant Palestinian. When he settled in Chicago, he joined a church presided over by a radical black pastor. Now dog meat.

A 2007 memo by Hillary Clinton's message guru, Mark Penn, articulates what this record can be made to mean: "[Obama's] roots to basic American values and culture are at best limited. I cannot imagine America electing a president during a time of war who is not at his centre fundamentally American in his thinking and values."

The campaigns subtly appeal to these negative images in their messaging.

Mitt Romney's stump speech warns: "President Obama has said he wants to transform America. I don't want to transform America. I want to restore America."

The liberal Super-PAC PrioritiesUSA action meanwhile represents Romney as a super-greedy super-bully in its ad, "If he wins, we lose."

We'd like to imagine that elections are decided on the issues, by voters responding rationally to competing policy proposals. But myth and narrative are stronger than reason -- and strongest of all when, as now in the U.S., times are hard and solutions are lacking.

This blog is cross-posted at the National Post.

 
 
 

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02:18 PM on 05/15/2012
Romney's main problem are two fold: 1) He is just not likeable and is no where near as good a campaigner as the president and 2) He talks about the economy, but he does not say what specifically he will do to improve it, what are his ideas? how is going to improve the investment environment? He can't have it both ways - Govt is the problem, but I am going to use govt to solve the problem. He can't be a fiscal conservative and also lower taxes on the 'job creators' which most independents think are low enough already. It feels like he is running a 1980's campaign in the 21st Century where everything he says is recorded and is used in a campaign commercial. I don't see how he can win with no new ideas. We have already had 30 years of deregulation and most people know that the lack of regulations was the cause of the financial crisis.

Eight years of Bush & the GOP Congress' excesses are still reaping benefits for the Dems.

Predicting Obama wins with more than 300 electoral votes.(303 to be exact - excluding NC, FL, & MO)
02:18 PM on 05/15/2012
As we know elections are decided by independents. Obama's positions are more closely aligned with independents than Romney's. Generally, independents are fiscally conservative, but socially liberal. Another factor is the Latino vote which is going to go to Obama as well since the GOP has decided to completely alienate them with their positions on immigration. Obama hasn't had to do anything on this issue and has just stood by and watched the GOP self-emulate themselves.

Obama's biggest weakness is his administrations handling of the housing crisis. Back in 2009, he should have moved quickly to use TARP to buy up distressed assets from the banks at pennies on the dollar, modified the loans and keep people in their homes. Instead his programs have been largely ineffectual and have been the wet blanket on this economy. Solving the housing crisis is the key to solving the unemployment problem since most of the millions of unemployed had jobs related - directly and indirectly - to the housing industry. But even that industry is starting to see signs of life.
02:17 PM on 05/15/2012
A few things: Though the economy is not stellar, it is better and more importantly it is better in swing states like PA, OH, and Michigan. Ironically, the reason why these states are better off are two fold: a) Boom of hydraulic fracking. b) Rebounding auto industry. Obama gets credit for one of them, but the true savior of his political fortunes is the hydraulic fracking that is putting to work a lot of blue collar white voters (idle hands are the devils playground = Tea Party).

If you compare 2012 to 1996 election, one of the main differences is back in 1996 you did not have Fox News' propaganda machine stirring up the conservative white base.
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ronin8404
The FF were right, except when they were wrong.
02:14 PM on 05/15/2012
Really tired of hearing Grover N. trot out his statistic about RR's job growth versus Obama's job growth as if;

1. the U.S. economy is pretty much the same it was in the early 1980's after a couple decades of outsourcing
2. That the recession that ended in 1982 was anything like recent events. Only the Great Depression was an event of the same magnitude.
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ronin8404
The FF were right, except when they were wrong.
02:01 PM on 05/15/2012
David, David, David. It IS about the economy. at least 20% will vote for their candidate, left and right, no matter what. That leaves roughly 60%. Despite all of the hot air, those people will ask themselves whether it's time for a change at the top. The answer will determine whether or not we will have a new POTUS come January. Everything else is sound & fury...you know the rest
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HUFFPOST COMMUNITY MODERATOR
tacevad
American SS Card Carrying Socialist
07:55 AM on 05/15/2012
it amuses me that the tried and true Republican talking points keep coming up each election, When Bush had complete control with his rubber stamp congress and senate what exactly did they actually do about abortion?gun rights? the gays!? Right! Republicans NEED these talking points to fire up their "base" they will never do anything about these issues, they don't want to kill the golden goose.
07:11 AM on 05/15/2012
We may as well focus on trivialities. Both sides agree on the austerity kick that serves no purpose other than to make our lives in the present more miserable and -- more certainly and more tragically -- ensures that future generations have no decent prospects.

And we have no way whatsoever of effecting any kind of change. In fact, if you look at where the campaign money is coming from and how it's being channeled (the only true index of a president's course in office), it's apparent that Obama will be more beholden to the banks and the overall finance-insurance-real-estate complex than even Romney is.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Edward Lee
It's impressive to be progressive
12:45 AM on 05/15/2012
There will be plenty of mudslinging in the next few months and frankly, there's nothing wrong with that. It's up to the media and voters to determine which is mud and which are legitimate criticisms. Eating dog meat urged by step father in Indonesia where it was legal - that's mudslinging. Putting a family dog on the roof of a car for a 10+ hour drive is legit criticism, at least for animal lovers. Gay marriage issue matters a great deal to a big part of the population and is by no means a fringe issue. Economics will play the biggest part and it's up to the voters to decide who offer better policies. It's shallow, typical for Frum, to think just because the current hot topic is on social issues, it's going to define the election.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
GrooveGrl4
12:27 AM on 05/15/2012
The argument Frum makes in this article is a classic Republican tactic that is used so often I don't know how anyone still falls for it.

The Republicans make an absurd, outlandish claim about the Democratic candidate, such as Obama is a foreign born Muslim.

Then, when the Democrats attack the Republican candidate, the Republicans act as if any legitimate attack by a Democrat - such as a Romney's past history of bullying and dismissive attitude that, along with an extensive history of dismantling companies and firing people to make a bunch of money for himself and a few investors, helps establish a lifelong history of causing others suffering for personal gain - is equivalent to the provably false claims made by Republicans.

These issues are NOT equivalent. Obama was NOT born in a foreign country and is NOT, nor has ever been a Muslim. The bullying incident clearly occurred, since Romney offered a non-apology apology, and it absolutely goes to speak for Romney's character and establishes a clear pattern of behavior that makes him absolutely unqualified to hold the office of president.
11:09 PM on 05/14/2012
"During the recession of 2008-09, the U.S. lost more than 8 million jobs, net. Since 2009, the U.S. has gained only about 4.5 million jobs, net."

Your words, David: Under Obama, we have already recouped more than half the jobs lost due to Bush-Cheney's "Rich folk are God" policies. THEY screwed America over a period of eight entire years. Obama has been President for three years and four months; he is UNscrewing us at a much faster pace.
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Alux
Pull the Wool Over Your Own Eyes!
02:41 AM on 05/15/2012
Slowest recovery ever.
76% of Americans polled last month think the US in still in a recession.
Longest period of under-4% growth since Carter was President.
Largest food stamp rolls in history . . . in 2012!

Nah, this election won't be about the economy, it will be about gay marriage and abortion rights!
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Steve Marchand
Author of Citizen of Ville Joie
11:05 PM on 05/14/2012
This false equivalency is disturbing. Republicans are on the right and Democrats are on the left. Show me in the left media someone as vile as Limbaugh, Malkin, Drudge. Show me on the left a network as misleading, as deceptive and as extremist as Fox News is. There is no equivalency in the message that is being sent out there.

Unfortunately there is no way to actually reach out to those trapped in the right wing media bubble. They don't want to hear the truth, they don't even want to be informed. They want to hear 2 words and 2 words alone: Obama bad. The right wing media is making hundreds of million of dollars giving those 2 words to them in so many ways. the message itself is rooted in one word : hatred.
06:53 AM on 05/15/2012
Bill Mayer and MSNBC.... yep, that should about do it
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tacevad
American SS Card Carrying Socialist
07:49 AM on 05/15/2012
LOL it is MaHer , a comedian BTW who makes no claim to journalism. and MSNBC is home to Joe Scarborough,a highly partisan ex republican congressman and Chuck Todd among others. what else ya got to counter the likes of Coulter ,Malkin, Palin,Beck, Limbaugh, Hannity?
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ronin8404
The FF were right, except when they were wrong.
02:05 PM on 05/15/2012
Bill M. is a comedian with a fourm and an opinion. He is not, and never has been, a leading voice in the Democratic party. Stop trying to pretend otherwise.

If you don't like B.M. tell HBO you want him off the air.
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09:16 PM on 05/14/2012
It should be about the economy because this economy sucks.
08:49 PM on 05/14/2012
oh I get it events from +30 years ago are an accurate measure of a candidate character.......wow a strange election indeed.
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HardinHart
A blue man in a red state
08:36 PM on 05/14/2012
Frum is a smart man. Except that he is a republican.
07:58 PM on 05/14/2012
Fine, except that Obama ISN'T a foreigner, and Romney IS a bully, or at least was one. So much for being fair.
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Alux
Pull the Wool Over Your Own Eyes!
02:42 AM on 05/15/2012
Four more years of the Doper!