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David Gratzer

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If We're Rich Right Now, It's Because We've Been Damn Lucky

Posted: 07/19/2012 2:04 am

There's an old joke about a therapist and a young woman. The therapist shows her one ink blot after another and asks her what she sees. Each time, she responds "sex." After several ink blots, the therapist comments that the woman seems to be obsessed by sex. "Me?" she responds indignantly. "You're the one showing all the dirty pictures."

Greek bailouts, faulty Spanish banks, and poor U.S. jobs numbers. The world is on fire, yet Canada has entered a period of relative bliss. And it's easy to compare Canadian successes to American problems.

Unemployment? Your cousin in Florida may be looking for work, but you're not, since the unemployment rate is lower in Canada by a full percentage point (7.2 per cent vs. 8.2 per cent). Housing prices? Your property in Edmonton is worth a pretty penny -- housing prices never crashed north of the 49th parallel -- but your Aunt regrets her Vegas condo purchase.

And, of course, this bombshell analysis released earlier in July: according to Environics Analytics Wealthscapes data, the average Canadian household is more than $40,000 richer than the average American household. The average household net worth in Canada was $363,202 in 2011; in the U.S., it was $319,970.

Many, particularly those with an eye on the United States, have asked: why the Canadian boomlet? Last year, writer Fred Barnes wrote at length on the topic for the cerebral quarterly National Affairs. Policy analyst Jason Clemens put the pen to paper for The Wall Street Journal. This week, novelist and columnist Steve Marche draws lessons from Canada's success for Bloomberg.com, in a cleverly titled piece, "Hardheaded Socialism Makes Canada Richer Than the U.S."

That last essay has gathered attention in recent days. It's been reprinted in this country, of course, but also as far away as the Korea Herald. It's sparked various responses, including a front-page piece by Financial Post editor Terence Corcoran in yesterday's National Post (and also a blog on HuffPost by U.S.- Canada expert, Christopher Sands).

And while Barnes, Clemens, and Marche have all been thoughtful, it's difficult not to think of the therapist and the young woman -- you can see in a complicated pattern pretty much what you want to see.

Let's start with Marche. To his fawning eyes, everything looks great in Canada, from the Charter of Rights to the currency. Marche is intelligent and clever with words, but even if Egyptians should copy our Charter (as he recommends) and Icelanders could piggy-back on our loonie (as he suggests they might), it's difficult to see how this really has led to Canadian success.

He gets more wonkish later in the piece, and largely credits Canadian success to hard decisions made in the 1990s. He describes these decisions as "hardheaded (even ruthless), fiscally conservative form of socialism."

Its originator was Paul Martin, who was finance minister for most of the '90s, and served a stint as prime minister from 2003 to 2006. Alone among finance ministers in the Group of Eight nations, he "resisted the siren call of deregulation," in his words, and insisted that the banks tighten their loan-loss and reserve requirements. He also made a courageous decision not to allow Canadian banks to merge, even though their chief executives claimed they would never be globally competitive unless they did. The stability of Canadian banks and the concomitant stability in the housing market provide the clearest explanation for why Canadians are richer than Americans today.

Let's set aside the very question as to where Canadians really are richer than Americans. (Terry Corcoran argues pretty persuasively over at the National Post that the analysis isn't worth the paper is written on.) Instead, let's focus on Marche's "hardheaded socialism" claim.

A few points.

First, Canada isn't that socialist -- and America isn't that free-market. Compare government spending as a percentage of GDP. The Canada-U.S. difference is modest. Government spending in Canada was 43.2 per cent in 2011; the United States it was 41.9 per cent. As Clive Crook quips over at the Atlantic: "I guess that makes the difference between hardheaded socialism and capitalism red in tooth and claw about 2 percentage points of GDP."

Second, both countries have made various interventions into the housing market. Canadian "socialism" means that it's harder to get a mortgage here -- true. But in the "free market" United States, government agencies like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac made loans readily available (too readily available) while the U.S. tax code allows mortgage deductions. That's not to be simplistic and suggest that the housing crisis was sparked solely by public-sector measures. But there are a variety of factors at play in the United States, including government policies -- what Marche would surely dub "socialist."

Banking regulations also differ, and the picture is vastly more complicated than Marche suggests (that is, an industry tightly controlled by government, having been supposedly tamed by the visionary Martin).

Author Reiham Salam writes well on this, over at National Review.

It is worth noting, however, that Canada never had a Glass-Steagall-style wall of separation between commercial and investment banking, and its highly-concentrated financial services industry has thus long been dominated by so-called "universal banks." Canada was able to "resist the siren call of deregulation" in part because Bay Street was in some respects less tightly regulated than Wall Street.

Third, natural resources are mentioned in passing in the Marche piece -- literally just two sentences. And this is where Clemens and Barnes can be faulted, too. All three have focused on the influence of government policy on Canada's prosperity. It's a bit like writing a history of the Second World War and not seriously considering the European theatre.

Good policy is important in a country's success -- sure. But good luck can often be more important. And Canada is a nation that has won the lottery, except there is no prize boat or house, but rather an exceptional amount of natural resources, all of which are trading at historically high prices.

Yes, Martin made big decisions two decades ago; it's also true that the Harper government resisted the siren call of massive stimulus spending in this decade. But Canada is an economy built on natural resources, and natural resources are booming. If oil traded at $9 a barrel, not $90, Marche would still be writing about Shakespeare.

The day after Bloomberg.com ran Marche's analysis on Canada, the Bank of Canada issued its quarterly report. For the record, the governors predict a down-tick in economic growth. The short report doesn't mention hardheaded socialism, by the way, but rather a cooling in oil prices.

This leads to an important question: if Canada is lucky, where do we go from here? For as history shows, oil booms are followed by oil busts. Canadians know this lesson too well. We enjoyed prosperity in the 1970s only to see harder times in the 1980s and 1990s.

And here there are lessons to draw -- not for Americans, but for Canadians. We need to use our moment wisely. In the 1970s, we oversaw massive government projects that we couldn't afford. It literally took decades to put our fiscal house in order.

Times are good today, they may not be so good in a few years. It's easy, like the woman in the joke, to see what we want (our genius in all aspects of our governance), no matter how complex the pattern. But times will change, and quickly.

Canadians need to be less self-congratulatory; we need to be strategic and prudent. We must use this opportunity to address bad policies (our health care system's excessive focus on health, not health care, for instance) and prepare for the future.

Such an approach isn't hardheaded socialism or free-market enthusiasm; it's realism.

 
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There's an old joke about a therapist and a young woman. The therapist shows her one ink blot after another and asks her what she sees. Each time, she responds "sex." After several ink blots, the the...
There's an old joke about a therapist and a young woman. The therapist shows her one ink blot after another and asks her what she sees. Each time, she responds "sex." After several ink blots, the the...
 
 
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Turdinthepunchbowl
Just say no, to the opiate of the masses.
12:05 PM on 07/20/2012
You're an ideologue Mr. Gratzer. You're welcome to your opinions but they are just that...opinions. Most of your claims are not substantiated by empirical evidence.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DII7v8yeRjs
02:18 PM on 07/20/2012
What a silly comment. It's an opinion piece. It's all opinion.

And linking to a video featuring Dennis Kucinich is hardly boosting your credibility, captain.

The Congressman couldn't even hold his own seat.

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-57392078-503544/dennis-kucinich-concedes-defeat-to-marcy-kaptur-in-ohio-democratic-primary/

Maybe he's been spending too much time interpreting drones as UFOs.

http://www.motherjones.com/mojo/2008/01/kucinichs-ufo-sighting-what-he-really-saw
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Turdinthepunchbowl
Just say no, to the opiate of the masses.
04:17 PM on 07/20/2012
Why so angry dad? The Boehner (Ohio) led-Republicans redistricted Kucinich's electoral district (the 9th) prior to the last election (called gerrymandering) so it's no mystery why this happened. As for his beliefs in UFO's, it's infinitely more probable than believing in a supernatural sky buddy. Now to the point at hand. Mr. Gratzer's (he loves to call the Clintons the "Clintonistas," for their attempts to create a universal health care system) is a fellow of the Hudson Institute a right wing think tank. This is the same fellow who believes the Canadian health care system is socialized medicine; even the US General Accounting Office reviewed the Canadian system and came to the conclusion it was not a socialized health care system. This is the same fellow who believes (contrary to peer-reviewed empirical evidence) that free market solutions are the answer to America's (and Canada's) health care challenges. He is demonstrably wrong on so many points of evidence in his own alleged area of expertise (health care policy) as to make many of his claims disingenuous. A claim not supported by objective and verifiable evidence is called opinion; you may be angry, but you don't seem stupid to me.

This is just one peer-reviewed meta-analysis (not think tank propaganda) showing that the argument that Canada's healthcare system is much less inefficient than the US's is simply another dishonest conservative-republican talking point that Gratzer often makes.

http://www.nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.1056/NEJMsa022033
03:58 AM on 07/21/2012
hi
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Turdinthepunchbowl
Just say no, to the opiate of the masses.
10:01 AM on 07/21/2012
Hello
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Warren Yuill
Jesus Built My Hot-Rod
07:16 AM on 07/20/2012
Here's a thought.
All the money spent trying to save the canadian economy was basicly an investment in Canada.
From saving the banks to bailing out GM and Chrysler to the massive infrastructure spending and extension of UI benifits.
All of it was basicly a massive trust placed onto canadians writ large.
If we would have lost confidence and dropped the ball, everything would have come unraveled.
The government removed risk from the private sector and placed it squarly on the shoulders of average canadians.
Was it fair to place that extra burden on canadians?
Doesn't really matter.
The fact is, if we hadn't accepted that burden and kept moving forward, we would be looking a lot like Spain right now.
The fact that we did accept that burden and the fact that the government of the day placed it's trust in canadians so implicitly as to put our future in our own hands, say s a great deal about us and the government we choose.
When the world seems to be spinning out of control, Canada somehow seems able to resist the centrifugal force of extremists views and hold tight to the center.
Thats what saves us.
Just being canadian.
03:58 AM on 07/21/2012
cool
07:13 PM on 07/19/2012
the only thng that saved Canada was Stephen Harper not having a majority until after the foecal matter hit the fan. Now stephen Harper has a majority and if he has his way Canada will be like the United States. Religulous and indifferent to the wellbeing of canadians but all for the rich. He didn't win honestly and he has no integrity. He has stifled the press and scinetists can no longer tell Canadians what science show. He is Canada's shame and may be Canada's destruction. Dubya didn't use robocalls to gain the presidency he had to us the supreme court of the United States. Not much difference.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
jimboy71
Hen Diapheron Heautoi
05:54 PM on 07/19/2012
Really?

"First, Canada isn't that socialist -- and America isn't that free-market. Compare government spending as a percentage of GDP. The Canada-U.S. difference is modest. Government spending in Canada was 43.2 per cent in 2011; the United States it was 41.9 per cent".

Take out the difference in defense spending, and we begin to see a different picture. I don't know if you're being dis/honest or just really missed the boat on this one. The US spends 4% of it's budget on the military, and Canada much less than one. That alone increases the spread between spending in the two countries enormously.

Take out the difference in interest on the debt, and then we really begin to see a difference. Fully 50% of US GDP is debt. Canada's debt is the lowest in the G-8 at 30%. Canada has a vastly different budget than the US, and therefore much more for social spending.

In order to compare the two for any reasonable purpose in this argument, you need to look at where the money is going, not at the total.
02:19 PM on 07/20/2012
Good point.

Do you have comparable numbers?
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jimboy71
Hen Diapheron Heautoi
03:25 PM on 07/20/2012
I got that information from Stats Can and the US government.  Wikipedia also has some numbers.
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04:57 PM on 07/19/2012
Well once again Huff Post, you won't allow any criticism of Mr. Gratzer. What is the real purpose of your blog? Why don't you just shut it down and move back state side? I mean really. Canadians do not share Mr. Gratzer's view of the world. Why don't you allow people to post what they think? What is the matter, you don't thinnk he can take it?
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
sgillhoolley
Occupy the discussion.
04:48 PM on 07/19/2012
The price of oil has only risen to a high enough level recently to generate profits from the tar sands. It takes as much energy to extract the oil as we get from the oil...but with oil prices high we currently can make decent profits doing this (at a high price to the environment). But this is only true in the past 5 or 6 years. So what accounts for our economic success prior to that? Generally speaking, we have strong regulations, we have universal healthcare (it is hard to quantify just how much of an edge that gives us in business), we have tighter mortgage rules (which helped us avoid the massive bubble in the US housing market...but we have our own bubble about to pop), and Canadians are more conservative (fiscally) generally speaking. We don't like wasting money and most of us could care less about keeping up with the Joneses.
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04:21 PM on 07/19/2012
It's true that Canada is blessed with immense natural resources, but it's also true that this does not guarantee success. Russia too has massive natural resources, and yet their GDP is 40% of ours. Although Canada benefits immensely from the Alberta oil sands, we had to create the technology over many decades to exploit them economically. No one knew how to do that before.
04:17 PM on 07/19/2012
Yes, though the Conservatives like to take credit - we owe much of Canada's ability to ride out the downturn to Paul Martin as the article points out. As finance minister he paid down the deficit in the 90s and did not allow the big banks to merge. He also required the banks to have more stringent mortgage requirements. Harper actually added more to the deficit with his election ploy of reducing the GST. Of course during the last election we never heard anything about cutting 2 years of old age security for millions of Canadians, or gutting environmental regulations to help out the oil industry. And if we're doing so well with our oil - why did it cost me $60 to fill up in the US and $90 in Canada. What's good for Alberta is not necessarily good for the rest of the country. I'd recommend reading Jeff Rubin's The End of Growth. He points out that triple digit oil prices are going to stall the world's economy for years. Just look at all the past oil shocks. 73, 91 and just prior the great recession in 08 they were at record levels. Though there is some fluctuation, they are not going back to the 25$ barrel as they were 10 years ago. The demand from China India and the rest of the emerging markets will see to that.
03:24 PM on 07/19/2012
Canadians have always had a hard time blowing their own horn. Nice to know that David Gratzer has not broken the mould.
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03:21 PM on 07/19/2012
Isnt there a difference between government spending and government spending? Government spending on corporate subsidies, government spending on the military, government spending on inefficient healthcare, government spending on marked up prescription drugs, those shouldnt really count.
If we are being honest, we are more socialist if and only if our social safety net is stronger which is not marked by government spending but by the efficacy of that spending, the amount of people it helps, and such measurements.

As for mortgages, the problem here is deciding what is and isnt socialist. Is it socialist for everyone to own house? No, socialism is for the government to own the houses and for people to rent at a low cost. And we have that for the extremely poor. Giving someone a house with a mortgage they cant afford and than letting them go bankrupt isnt socialism. So what did the US do? They promote "pro-business" fake conservatism that is pro-risk for higher profits, and that meant risky mortgages given to everyone. A parallel? Everyone owning a car versus a strong public transit system. Everyone owning a car regardless of economic standing SOUNDS socialist, but its not really.
01:11 PM on 07/19/2012
Nothing succeeds better than good old-fashioned luck! Never mistake good luck for intelligence.
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04:22 PM on 07/19/2012
It is not possible to create a prosperous liberal democracy from luck alone.
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jimboy71
Hen Diapheron Heautoi
05:55 PM on 07/19/2012
Just like it isn't possible for monkeys to randomly write Shakespeare. It's more of this mumbo jumbo pie in the sky nonsense.