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Is the Liberal Party Dead?

Posted: 11/20/2011 11:21 pm

"Liberals have finally met their Armageddon. Get used to it." So writes veteran journalist Peter Newman in his forthcoming book on the Liberal Party of Canada.

When the Gods Changed is due out this week, but early press reports suggest that Newman sees the party as dead.

Further, Newman sees a new "natural governing party" for the country -- the Conservatives, led by Prime Minister Stephen Harper.

Of course, Newman isn't the only one to have reached that conclusion. A confidential cable from the U.S. ambassador to Canada suggests that Stephen Harper's Conservatives see themselves more and more as Canada's "natural governing party." That memo, leaked by WikiLeaks, was before the election -- and landing a majority hasn't exactly changed minds in the PMO. Actually, back in the summer, the prime minister himself mused about the Tories becoming the natural governing party.

Let's just review: the Tories won an impressive majority in the spring; the second largest party in the House of Commons just lost its popular leader and faces a divisive leadership race; and the Liberals are in disarray, led by a nearly geriatric former New Democrat. It's all good news if you're wearing Tory blue.

Here's a word of advice to my Conservative friends, however: Be smart.

Twenty-seven years ago, after Brian Mulroney secured his Sept. 4 landslide, another veteran journalist, the Toronto Star's Richard Gwyn, thought Mulroney had "almost certainly made the Conservatives the majority party for the rest of the century." Two elections later, the party was reduced to just a couple of seats.

Here's the point. In any democracy, and especially this democracy, political dynasties come and go. Diefenbaker blew in to Ottawa like a prairie storm -- and then blew out, taking his Tories with him; Trudeau's walk in the snow was sparked by bad polls not great contemplation; Chretien won three impressive elections, but lost control of his party, and thus his job. Leaders come and go; parties win power and then lose it.

Yes, the Harper Tories face no credible opposition now, and probably won't in 2015. But, eventually, they will. And, one day soon, they will lose power.

The key, then, isn't to celebrate their time in office and past election victories, but to govern -- and govern well. This next decade may prove as consequential to Canada as the 1960s were -- a time, literally, to re-envision the nation and its place in the world.

To my Ottawa friends, then, remember this: You'll be off writing your memoirs soon. Make every day count.

 
"Liberals have finally met their Armageddon. Get used to it." So writes veteran journalist Peter Newman in his forthcoming book on the Liberal Party of Canada. When the Gods Changed is due out this w...
"Liberals have finally met their Armageddon. Get used to it." So writes veteran journalist Peter Newman in his forthcoming book on the Liberal Party of Canada. When the Gods Changed is due out this w...
 
 
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12:47 AM on 11/23/2011
As someone dismayed by the stranglehold the conservatives seem to have over this country, and young enough not to know much about Canada's electoral history, I found this refreshing. Thanks so much for the perspective.
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Transitteer
and another thing . . .
02:09 PM on 11/22/2011
And I foresee the decline of the NDP, the re:birth of the Liberals, and the decline of the radical Tories. I think most Canadians are mid-road, neither far left, nor far right, and the more left the NDP go, the more they slide, and the more right the Tories go, the more they slide. There was a reason the Liberals held for so long - they actually were far more astute in past years than recent, but there was a reason a middle-of-the-road Party held sway for so long. I just think it will again.
12:01 PM on 11/22/2011
If the LIBs disappeared there'd be something else wouldn't there? Political parties come and go eh. Or they change their names to confuse the innocent. Lets face it politics is a rich person's game played to gain points for the party without a single thought to Canadian wants and needs. Each new bill looks more like a stab in the other guy's eye than something Canadians need.
We don't need party politics anymore, we need dedicated Canadians who will run the country like the enlightened democracy we want the world to see.
Oh Canada Wake up!
09:44 PM on 11/21/2011
This country is in for a world of hurt for the next eight years. The Cons are going to radically re-shape this country in a bad way. It's only a matter of time before the give into the banks and let them deregulate. The milk and cheese boards will go the way of the wheat board. Religious fanaticism in government will grow. The environment is screwed. This is a terrible time to be a moderate, reasonable Canadian.
01:11 PM on 11/22/2011
let me guess... You must be one of the last few Liberal fan... right?

If the Wheat board was such a great idea...
- Why did it only applied to the prairie farmers and not the rest of Canada?
- Why are there no oat/barley boards?

Who said the banks were going to take over... or it that just another hyperbole? Unless you mean to tell us that people/crown corporation being held accountable for their debts and spending is a bad thing...

Religious fanaticism in government... I thought it was the Ontario Liberal's that were trying to legalize Sharia law... not the Conservative...

*-*-*-*

Ho, wait... forgot the add campaign. Harper eats babies... therefore I must fear/hate him...
12:00 AM on 11/23/2011
I'm neither a Liberal or Conservative fan, I am a fan of reason.
As quoted in the Phantom Menace: "Only a Sith believes in absolutes."
Conservatives and Liberals are never always right. There's a middle ground. Sadly, the middle ground has been destroyed thanks to Harper's effective destruction of Michael Ignatieff pre-election with those pricey TV ads that ran during Stanley Cup playoffs, Grey Cup, big TV shows, etc...
Now, Canadians believe they only have a choice of a "strong, stable Conservative majority" or the NDP.
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09:19 PM on 11/21/2011
The Liberals greatest asset is the NDP.

I don't see the dippers repeating their success of this year's election. The Liberals are far more in accordance with typical Canadian political beliefs. They just have to rebuild from the ground up, and not be afraid to throw out some old ideas.
01:13 PM on 11/22/2011
Agree.

- The NDP surge in Quebec will be a one term wonder. Once Quebecers realize they are still not getting every thing they demand... they'll switch allegiance.

- The Liberal needs to purge some of its old guard... and start listening to the membership... Whether the old-guard allows it or not is a different story.
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John Hynes
A paragon of insight for liberals
06:40 PM on 11/22/2011
You are correct about the dippers. However, how do you define 'typical Canadian beliefs'? I'm pretty typical and I live in downtown Toronto. I'm also 'far more in accordance' with conservative values than big government, Quebec appeasing liberal values.
08:01 PM on 11/21/2011
I too see the demise of the Liberal Party as premature.
When the Conservatives under Mulroney were defeated they were left with only a few seats in the HOC.
The Liberals this time around have thirty four.
The Conservatives were able to reinvent themselves over the years to become the party in power today.
Quebeckers have traditionally backed the LPC but adscam and 3 successively poor leaders forced them
to park their ticket with the NDP, having no stomach to vote Conservative.
If the LPC can elect a new (read "new" here, not a leftover from the adscam era), and credible leader,
and give the party credible direction, then all bets are off. Those 75 Quebec seats will be back on the table.
The way I've seen Harper treat Quebec lately, it's doubtful those seats will be coming his way.
There are still a lot of important and well financed business people with connections to the party.
To count the lib's out is a little bit overreaching and smug, I'd say.
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Vapula
Failure is not an option
07:44 PM on 11/21/2011
The Liberals dug their own grave and then jumped in it. A series of dishonest leaders and corruption scandals sealed their fate.
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FearlessFreep
A radical leftist with a JS Woodsworth avatar.
05:40 PM on 11/21/2011
In the long run, it was Chretien who ruined the Liberals.
03:43 PM on 11/21/2011
Watch out Conservatives, the Green party's coming to get you! GO GREEN!
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calisel99
life began wit the first self replicating molecule
10:48 PM on 11/21/2011
the green party lost almost 50% of there base last election,even though your head got a seat from bc riding...green party needs new leadership
09:46 PM on 11/22/2011
Slowly but surely wins the race! LOL, I agree though, if the Green party is going to have any kind of success they need new leadership and frankly an new name. But I support them whole-heartedly because I think their ideas are what Canada needs.
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John Hynes
A paragon of insight for liberals
06:40 PM on 11/22/2011
Green Party? ....holy smokes...they still exist?
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cityprole
old,sly, crafty,arty, leftie
12:04 PM on 11/21/2011
Well, David whoever you are Gratzer, to say that the Cons face no credible opposition is to make the same arrogant mistake that the Libs made..trivializing the NDP in print isn't such a new thing, but they are the official opposition as much as it fries you to admit it, and I feel that they will be a more than credible force for Emperor Steve to reckon with, when he and his merry band of prankstah gangstahs aren't tripping over their own scandals..no Opposition is going to be foolish enough to interrupt them while they self-destruct...
03:44 PM on 11/21/2011
lol, Emperor Steve... I like that.
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John Hynes
A paragon of insight for liberals
06:48 PM on 11/22/2011
All parties eventually corrupt themselves out of office. Or familiararity breeds contempt eventually. Good news for me is this won't happen to the conservatives for the next 8-9 years. And that is bad, bad news for you...lol...I love my Emperor!
11:39 AM on 11/21/2011
the way they are going, the Harper's neo-cons will be delivering a MASSIVE budget deficit inside of 4 years. When the inevitable chickens come home to roost, there will be another conservative decimation like that led by Campbell.
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09:22 PM on 11/21/2011
By what logic do you see a MASSIVE budget deficit? What will cause it?
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John Hynes
A paragon of insight for liberals
06:51 PM on 11/22/2011
Logic from a over-zealous, idealistic Liberal?...lol...don't hold your breath!
11:38 AM on 11/21/2011
Good article.

I'm going to get Newman's book. I think, though, that rumours of the Liberal Party's death have been greatly exaggerated.
11:01 AM on 11/21/2011
" . . . one day soon, they will lose power".

Boy, there's a rallying cry for the mild-hearted.
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cityprole
old,sly, crafty,arty, leftie
12:04 PM on 11/21/2011
..born to be mild...
01:15 PM on 11/22/2011
You need to add "witty" to your signature... ;-)
09:41 AM on 11/21/2011
The Conservatives will continue to govern if they govern in the fashion which is the norm in Canada, and that is possibly not the conservative style which the people behind Harper's rise to the PMs office are looking for.

There are two factors in retaining power in Canada and only one is in control of the government.

First Canadians traditionally like to be governed from the center, while there are left and right extremes the the voting base is in the center, always.The government has the ability to control this with policy initiatives, but it may alienate its conservative base.

Second there will always be an urge to throw the bums out during bad times and it is beyound the ability of any government to create good times. They can only use good times to prepare for bad times as the Liberals did to benefit of the current government. The government can control the spin on this factor and with a continuingly dumbed down electorate this is very effective at the polls.

Those two factors aside, everything else in an election campaign is manufactured, and with the fall of most long term governments often what brings down one party benefits the successor. We saw this when the GST and free trade brought down Mulroney, and the manufacturing of the Chretien governments involvement in the sponsorship scandal.
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john frodo
armchair expert
09:22 AM on 11/21/2011
Ah if only the left did not control the media. CTV’s QP is the Conservatively themed political discussion in Canada and even they were willing to raise an eyebrow at a draconian provision stuffed into the crime bill. Passing a joint near a school will be an offence with a minimum two year jail term. Considering 50% of University students pass a joint near a school, and this probably rises to 75 if you include ones that don’t take a draw, it would seem a ridiculous law. What is truly odious is the mindset of those who included and defend this measure. They say no problem, its not going to be enforced. How many times can the conservatives say this with a straight face. Oh all those internet laws, they are not going to be enforced. All those drug laws, they only apply to organized crime. I suspect the truth is the pass it measure was included to give the police the ability to sweat offenders to get them to narc out who gave them the pot. IMHO this is a stasi type measure. This is truly a harbinger of a police state.
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cityprole
old,sly, crafty,arty, leftie
12:07 PM on 11/21/2011
What media is controlled by the "left" unless left to you is such radical stalwarts as Murdoch, Black, and Thompson...this is the worst argument for decrim I think I've seen, start with a false premise, make up some stats, and draw weird conclusions...
And I support decrim!
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john frodo
armchair expert
01:01 PM on 11/21/2011
sarcasm
01:22 PM on 11/22/2011
>> start with a false premise, make up some stats, and draw weird conclusion­s...

Are we talking about the gun registry?
http://www.whyfor.com/firearm/rcmp_murray.html

Most printed media in Quebec are definitively "left"... at least the ones I read and listen to
- French CBC Radio
- La Presse
- Le Devoir

Oddly enough, the way they so fervently despise Harper... might actually help him in the long run. People are loosing faith in the "system" (or establishment) and they will figure that if some many media outlet are against him... he must be good at something.

You know, it's like telling your teenager that you don't want him to drink beer, because beer is bad for him...