"You never get a second chance to make a first impression" is one saying that does not always apply in politics. Political careers are replete with second and even third impressions that salvaged reputations. Prime Minister Stephen Harper did it. Justin Trudeau and Tim Hudak are working on it, and Rob Ford is, well...never mind.
But it is in Alberta today that we will find the most consequential application of this dictum, just not the way you might think.
Former federal Environment Minister Jim Prentice is poised to run for Premier of Alberta. He will win. Positive first impressions have already catapulted him to front-runner status. It is not first or second impressions of Mr. Prentice personally that matter to winning his party's leadership. It is what he does with it once he becomes premier; specifically whether he applies his substantial political capital to giving a second impression to his province's climate change policy, something that the oil sands sector and pipeline projects like Keystone sorely need.
Truth be told, in the landscape of federal climate policy Mr. Prentice left few footprints during his time in office. Not entirely his own fault as opposing Cabinet and political forces were arrayed against him.
This time can be different.
It can be different because Alberta's carbon emissions reduction policy, the Specified Gas Emitters Regulation, is up for renewal creating a tailor-made opportunity for a new premier to give Alberta's climate change and environmental image a whole new second impression.
Seven years after it was first introduced in 2007, the SGER requires big industrial emitters to reduce their "emissions intensity" (emissions per unit of production) by up to 12 per cent over time. If not, companies pay a $15.00 per ton levy as a compliance mechanism into a technology fund used to fund innovations aimed at reducing emissions in the future.
For well over a year now, discussions between industry and government have been occurring over the new intensity levels and the carbon price associated with it. The Allison Redford government had made noises about changing it to a so-called 40/40 regulation: 40 per cent intensity reduction and a $40.00 per ton carbon compliance levy. Recently, a simple doubling of requirements to a 30/24 formula has been mooted.
This is no ordinary regulatory decision. The SGER covers about one-half of all emissions in Alberta and, by extension, one-sixth of all GHG emissions in Canada.
Unless Alberta's oil sands carbon emissions drop, Canada's overall emissions will grow. We will miss our 2020 target of reducing emissions by 17 per cent from 2005 levels. And, as the Obama administration repeatedly demonstrates with delay after delay in approving the Keystone pipeline project, market access for our oil sands products will remain at risk at least until Canadian and Albertan climate policies become more stringent and realistic in their ambition to reduce carbon pollution.
With the federal government repeatedly punting a decision on its own oil and gas regulations, the ball is now in Alberta's court. Any emissions reductions from the controversial oil sands sector will have to come from Alberta action alone. But the positive ramifications of doing so will be felt both Canada and North America-wide.
Mr. Prentice's speeches show a dedicated advocate of North American cooperation on energy and climate policies. He was just hired to work directly with First Nations on behalf of Enbridge to remove obstacles to building their Northern Gateway pipeline through British Columbia.
All good. But, as premier of Alberta, he will have more powerful levers in his hands to help address these issues and, in turn, secure the future of his province's most important industry.
The past few years show clearly that there is no more 'business as usual' when it comes to oil sands and climate change. They are linked, like it or not. Effective climate policy is smart economic policy when it comes to assuring market access for our energy exports. Clear dividends - financial and environmental - will accrue from applying stronger regulatory measures on Alberta's oil sands to reduce their carbon emissions.
An early and decisive move by new Premier Jim Prentice on this front would fundamentally alter the Canada-US climate policy dynamic plaguing oil sands development and pipelines construction. It could recharge moribund national climate efforts also.
It all adds up to this: a second chance to make a first impression. What politician could resist that?
David McLaughlin is Strategic Advisor on Sustainability at the Faculty of Environment, University of Waterloo and former President and CEO of the National Round Table on the Environment and the Economy.