It was inevitable that climate change deniers and some oil industry promoters would misinterpret a study by scientist Andrew Weaver before reading beyond the headlines. A letter in the Calgary Herald actually claimed that "Weaver's revelation ... raises even more skepticism about the entire science behind global warming."
The writer went on to argue that the report by University of Victoria climate scientist Weaver and PhD student Neil Swart is an "awakening for David Suzuki and his environmental followers."
It's typical of the nonsense people who understand science have to put up with every day. The study, published in Nature, says the opposite.
Weaver and Swart set out to answer a simple question: "How much global warming would occur if we completely burned a variety of fossil fuel resources?" Their conclusion that burning all the coal or all the gas from the entire world's resource bases would raise global average temperatures more than burning all the Alberta tar sands reserves is hardly a surprise.
What is surprising is their finding that emissions from burning all the economically viable oil from the tar sands would only contribute to a 0.03°C rise in world temperatures, and burning the entire tar sands oil in place would add 0.36°C. That may not seem like much, but we need to put it in context.
First, the study looked only at the emissions from burning the fuels and not from extracting, refining, or transporting them. The report's authors explain that these additional emissions "would come from the other resource pools and shouldn't be double-counted."
If we are to avoid a 2°C increase in global temperatures, each person in the world would be allocated 80 tonnes of emissions over the next 50 years. The emissions from burning all the tar sands oil that is now economically viable (the reserves) would represent 64 tonnes of carbon for each of the 340 million people in the U.S. and Canada -- about 75 per cent of the U.S. and Canada's global per capita allocation. If we include emissions from the extraction process, it rises to 90 per cent or more.
The study doesn't consider any other environmental consequences of the tar sands either, from water use and pollution to destruction of boreal habitat. In fact, a recently uncovered memo prepared for the federal government claims that damage from the tar sands may be irreversible and could pose a "significant environmental and financial risk to the province of Alberta." The memo focused on rising emissions and damage from tailings ponds, among other effects. It concluded that "the cumulative impacts of oilsands development are not adequately understood."
Our rush to get at the bitumen is also threatening wildlife and habitat. Conservation officers killed 145 black bears that got too close to the operations last year. And rather than protecting caribou habitat from destruction as extraction increases, the federal government has decided to kill wolves that prey on caribou instead.
On the political front, the European Union recently failed to pass its Fuel Quality Directive, which would have labelled tar sands oil as carbon intensive and undesirable for import, but that fight isn't over.
As I've said before, we're not going to stop using oil overnight, so we will continue to use tar sands products, at least in the short- to medium-term. But the best ways to limit impact upon the environmental are to slow down and to ensure the highest environmental standards are met and that we are getting maximum value for the oil to which all Canadians have a right.
As Weaver and Swart conclude: "If North American and international policymakers wish to limit global warming to less than 2°C, they will clearly need to put in place measures that ensure a rapid transition of global energy systems to non-greenhouse-gas-emitting sources, while avoiding commitments to new infrastructure supporting dependence on fossil fuels."
That doesn't mean putting pipelines through pristine wilderness, extracting bitumen as quickly as possible, and shipping it off to China in supertankers. It does mean we have to find ways to stop using coal and gas as well as oil. As Weaver points out, "The tar sands are a symptom of a bigger problem. The bigger problem is our societal dependence on fossil fuels."
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Andrew Weaver: Our New Study: Global Warming From Coal Worse than Oil Sands
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Canadian Climate Scientist Andrew Weaver Sues National Post ...
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Andrew Weaver: Our Politicians Not Warming to Climate Change
So here are some facts : Canada's emissions contribution to the world total - 2%
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions
The Oilsands contribution to Canada's total - 5%
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_sands#Environmental_issues
The Oilsands contribution to global emissions - 0.01 %
Here's a perspective not considered : The Oilsands companies have more people with environmental science degrees and spend more money of the environment than all the enviro protest groups combined. Where do graduates of university environmental science programs end up working ? not in protest groups . There you only need to be arrested doing something stupid and get your picture in the paper in order to get a job. Resource companies actually want people who understand science.
Grasping at straws and twisting the words from reports is not science - it's conjecture .
i guess every one is wrong then
David, our standard of living depends to a huge extent on our ability to use energy. Much of that energy comes from fossil fuels. Without a viable plan (including estimates of cost and time to implement) to replace fossil fuels all you are doing is asking people to take a big cut in their standard of living.
Griping about our carbon footprint without presenting a credible alternative is not good particularly helpful.
Prepare yourself.
The only viable replacement for energy from fossil fuels is nuclear, and because there isn't enough U235 to meet the need, breeder reactors and spent fuel reprocessing will be necessary. Neither of these will be popular, but the time to act is now (actually it was thirty years ago).
Oil is approaching the point where demand will soon exceed supply and we will see prices driven by real factors, not just the greed of Wall Street. Still, Oil WILL run out and if we don't have an alternative in place by then we will be up the creek without a paddle.
Give me a break - each person in the US currently emits 18 tonnes per capita per year. Canada is only slightly lower, 16.5 tons per capita per year.
The 80 tonne in 50 year limit? It's preposterous. The US+Canada is on track to exceed that within the next ***5**** years, re:less of what happens with the oil sands.
This sort of numerical lilliteracy is why the Keystone opponents are so widely ridiculed by anyone with any understanding of the science involved ... the oil sand numbers are just a tiny part of the problem, no matter how you slice it. Yet this is the high priority issue? It makes no sense, and you're ridiculous accounting tricks don't change that fact.
Those who still, amazingly, think that climate change is some kind of hoax will find out too late that we are at our rubicon right now..