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J.J. McCullough

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Why the Pundits Got the Alberta Election so Spectacularly Wrong

Posted: 04/27/2012 11:15 am

It was an otherwise forgettable issue of Newsweek, containing only one real article of note.

"Liberalization is a ploy," declared George Will's column, in response to recent gossip from the Eastern Bloc."The wall will remain."

It hit newsstands November 9, 1989. The very day the wall came down.

Now, multiply Will's embarrassment by a factor of 30 or so, and you'll have some idea what it was like to write about this week's Albertan election, which almost all of Canada's brightest journalistic lights wrongly predicted would conclude with the incumbent Tories getting turfed in favour of the upstart Wildrose Party.

Though editors have been working tirelessly to purge the most embarrassing dissertations of certain gun-jumping writers, thanks to the miracle of caching I can still remind you of this particularly cocky offering by Andrew Coyne, or these "Dewey defeats Truman" musings from PostMedia's Lee Berthiaume.

To be fair, most of the crow-eaters have been relatively good sports.

"Why did I allow myself to be misled by the evidence of two dozen polls over four weeks?" writes Coyne, in a tongue-heavily-in-check retrospective. "Why could I not have foreseen what absolutely no one else foresaw?"

Fellow National Post victim of premature prognostication Gerry "the PCs will lose" Nicholls echos the sentiment.

In retrospect, it's always easy to get judgey about other people's bad hunches, says Nicholls but "all those reasons people are giving for the PC victory are really just educated guesses too."

And what exactly are "all those reasons?" In a word: bozos.

In a startling coincidence, many of the nation's socially-progressive pundits have concluded the reason the Wildrose Party never went anywhere was because it had too many far-right so-con cranks within its ranks.

"In 2012, you can't go around warning that homosexuals will burn in hell, as one Wildrose candidate did, or that ethnic minorities can only speak to their own kind, as another did," says John Ibbittson at the Globe and Mail. Albertans have decisively rejected "the angry idea that gays are doomed to a 'lake of fire,' and the notion that white candidates have an edge," agreed the Toronto Star.

Indeed, if one believes the punditocracy, the two most defining issues of Monday's vote were where gays go after they die and the appropriate protocols for interracial communication. This was admirable because it shows Albertans aren't just a bunch of rubes willing to let their politics get hijacked by petty, irrelevant matters.

Of course, not everyone completely agrees that this election was all about a brave, progressive community rallying together to protest the Aryan brotherhood, which is literally the metaphor Warren Kinsella uses.

Ezra Levant over at Sun TV, for instance, says Premier Redford basically just used a textbook "unite-the-left" strategy to pander to Liberal and NDP voters at the expense of the Tory Party's traditional conservative base. The end result? "A left-wing former United Nations lawyer is now the boss of what used to be the most freedom-loving province in Canada." I've got good news, Saskatchewan!

Though I'm sure he'd hate this comparison, blogger Dan Arnold of Calgary Grit fame basically agrees with Erza, observing that "the PC base has shifted considerably" and that "Redford's mandate was effectively given to her by liberals." Since they now face a well-funded, well-organized challenge from the right, he says the Tories must make peace with the fact that elections can no longer be won "with a few simple chants of 'NEP!' and by outspending their opponents by a factor of 10."

In perhaps the biggest shocker of all, however, some editorialists have been making the claim that the unexpected downfall of Wildrose may have actually had something to do with local Alberta issues!

Paula Simons at the Edmonton Journal, for instance, prattles off a bunch of ways Wildrose leader Danielle Smith alienated Edmonton voters, noting she bashed "publicly and vehemently, some of this city's pet projects, from the Royal Alberta Museum, to the City Centre Airport lands redevelopment, to the restoration of the Federal Building," while Lorne Gunter notes that Calgarians have "clearly forgiven the Tories for the 2008 royalty grab."

I have no clue what any of this means, but I assume it's all pretty important considering the Rosers only won two seats in the province's two biggest cities. Which is kind of a no-no when you're trying to get a majority.

The one belief that seems to unite all Alberta-watchers, however, is that everything changed on Monday. The rise of Wildrose marked the biggest, most historic realignment of the province's party system since Peter Lougheed first unseated the Socreds in 1971, according to just about everyone. Official opposition status is just Danielle Smith's first setback on her inevitable road to power said others.

Conspicuously absent, however, was any mention of New Brunswick's Confederation of Regions Party, the Action Democratique in Quebec, the federal Progressives, or any other one-note party movement whose operatic crescendo to second place ultimately quelled  as sharply as it climaxed.

The press' obsession with viewing all Albertan political happenings through the narrative prism of dynasties -- either current or in-waiting -- has helped turn the actually fairly precedented rise of Wildrose into something much more gothically dramatic, presumably because gothically dramatic stories are way more fun to write about.

The Tories may have been given a scare, in other words, but as far as one-party regimes go, Albertans are still a long way from breaking out the sledgehammers and dancing on graffiti-clad rubble.

 

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03:27 PM on 05/01/2012
The polls were flawed. 44% of Albertans who do not automatically hang up on robo call polls supported Wildrose, not 44% of Alberta voters.
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tnanimation
12:15 AM on 05/01/2012
Nice clipart masthead J.J.
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duggyg
Situation normal.....
12:13 AM on 04/29/2012
Dogs barking up the wrong skirt..... I thought this was a good article. The fire brigade will always come out when needed, and the burning rose bush was extinguished....
10:59 PM on 04/28/2012
*very* difficult to believe such a large number of *honest* polls could be so uniformly wrong. Nobody in Canada wants to consider the idea that our "trusted" leaders might be a bit less than fully honest at times, but maybe considering this would shed light on quite a lot of things. The CBC, and all Cdn mainstream media, have had a serious mission to push and promote the WildRose party since it first reared its head last year - and it does not stretch the imagination at all to wonder if there wasn't a serious attempt to create a bandwagon effect here - it's a known political phenomena that many less committed voters will often give their vote to a party perceived to be on a winning track. The media are certainly capable of acting en masse if their owners wish to herd the Canadian people in a certain direction, as undeniably evidenced by their demonisation of certain people when the imperial interests decide they must go, or the mass urging of Cdns to accept the 'austerity' measures being imposed, about which a little honest reporting would have many questions about what is going on here (i.e. It's Not 'Austerity' It's Looting - http://www.rudemacedon.ca/vgi/backgrounders/not_austerity_looting.html ).
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arkymorgan
Nobody knows the trouble I've been...
08:28 PM on 04/28/2012
As an added point, Mr. McCullough, real journalists, back in the day, might have considered talking to more people in more places instead of relying on polls and the twitterfeed.

Of course, the same could be said to Ms. Smith, as well.
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arkymorgan
Nobody knows the trouble I've been...
08:25 PM on 04/28/2012
There was Smith's ''Climate change is unproven'' statement, of course. Despite the need for oil companies to chant this mantra, the thousands of science-educated professionals they have to employ (many from - gasp - eastern Canada, originally) makes that a non-starter for a platform plank.

And Smith's assertion that in Alberta ''you just say you're sorry and move on'' smacked of an irresponsible and already arrogant attitude towards governing.

Alberta went with the devil they knew - but they also doubled the number of NDP seats, which suggests there was less strategic voting going on than you'd think.
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MJinCanada
Safe from zombies until my 2nd cup of coffee
12:42 PM on 04/29/2012
Good points. I frankly never believed any polls that put Wild Rose in front. Too new, too much the Tea Party copycats.
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04:50 PM on 04/28/2012
Pundits are people by another name. As people we tend to believe what we want to believe. More experienced / educated people are said to be able to see past their humanity - be objective. I have always questioned this.
07:22 AM on 04/28/2012
the wild rose ---lost because they are mean spitrited -------

from flanagan to the candidates to their financial backers ----mean spirited

albertans understand there is a job to do --but you dont need to be a jerk to get it done ------they also understand if they cant market the oil --they have a huge problem ----

all dressed up and no where to go----and being mean spirited wont get you a date for the prom
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tnanimation
09:49 PM on 04/27/2012
Another thoroughly unreadable treatise from Mr. McCullough. Like most of what he writes, he does give it a good try, stringing together a few quotes or lines from various sources, the result being little more than a typically amateurish attempt at serious political commentary. Embarrassing actually.
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Brady Postma
Know-it-all.
11:47 PM on 04/27/2012
Specificity, please.
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Liviu
I support the right to arm the bears.
02:38 PM on 04/27/2012
"a long way from breaking out the sledgehammers and dancing on graffiti-clad rubble."

That is a nice metaphor, even though there is no wall (figuratively or literally) in Alberta.
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Glass Cannon
Let every eye negotiate for itself.
02:32 PM on 04/27/2012
Excellent article. The ethics and judgement of so many of these journalists has been and will continue to be called into question. Time to really sharpen up those pencils ladies and gentlemen. People are counting on you for accurate news and information.

Oh, and some here in Alberta are comparing this election to the 1993 scare that the PCs had - from the Liberals. But I wouldn't say it was a lot like the election in 1971.
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albertarick
These are questions for wise men with skinny arms
12:10 PM on 04/27/2012
The pundits are not representative of Albertans. They are paid for and supported by corporate interests that have little to do with 80% of Alberta's population. It is that simple. We are part of Canada after all, our Conservatives are not American Republicans.
07:24 AM on 04/28/2012
good point --the monied interests were using the polls to SHAPE THE OUTCOME
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canobserv
08:31 AM on 04/28/2012
and the local Calgary herald...which was unabashedly WR