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Is There a Giant Slayer Among the Liberal Leadership Candidates?

Posted: 05/08/2012 11:35 am

As we approach the month of June, the Liberal party will soon be making a decision on when to hold their next leadership convention. Attached to that decision will be another key one as they must also decide if interim leader Bob Rae can run for the leadership position.

With roughly a month to go, there doesn't seem to be much interest from the public in what they do or, for that matter, what they decide. This isn't unusual, as public attention is focused on Tom Mulcair and the NDP. Clearly at this point in time the NDP offers voters the biggest contrast with the governing Conservatives; the Liberals still don't seem to fit in anywhere.

It is always tough for a third party to define itself, and being in the mushy middle isn't necessarily a good thing at this point in time. This is partially due to the fact that the voters haven't turned on the Conservatives yet, and that the NDP is finally starting to get its act together. My guess is those opposing the Harper government will peak their interest, and their vote with the NDP for now. Better to give a strong opposition leader a shot at dealing with Harper than switch back to the mushy Liberals with unknown leadership prospects waiting in the wings.

To date, even the potential candidates don't have the profile to generate a lot of interest amongst the general public, even though inside the Queensway it will be a hot topic of conversation and speculation. But with BBQ season finally arriving, will ordinary Canadians begin paying attention?

Martha Hall Findlay, Gerard Kennedy, Scot Brison, Marc Garneau, David McGuinty, Dominic LeBlanc, Denis Coderre and Justin Trudeau are mentioned as potential leadership candidates, but how do Canadians see them? Do they see them as reasonably competent MPs, or as a giant slayer who can defeat both Harper and Mulcair? Based on their track record I don't see any of them in that position just yet.

Hanging over all of the potential candidates will be the question of how they will deal with a merger or coalition with the NDP. We can expect most if not all to deny any hint of a merger, and they will probably dodge the question of a coalition arrangement with the NDP after the next election. But with their thirst for power, do we honestly think the Liberals, no matter who they are led by, would walk away from a coalition deal that gave them a few seats around the cabinet table?

Gerard Kennedy was honest enough to say recently that "I don't think the coalition itself was particularly well handled in the end, but I think that was a matter of politics as opposed to whether or not it was the right thing to do. We'll see how things are."

You can bet the Conservatives won't let him forget that one, and it is a key question to put to every leadership candidate. Today, Canadian voters have been exposed to coalition governments more frequently than in the past, the UK being an example. Conservative scare tactics may not be as successful this time around, and the bogeyman of a coalition government may have played itself out especially as the Bloc had no role to play. It is therefore a legitimate question for potential Liberal leaders. Would they join an NDP led coalition, or come to a working arrangement if it meant the defeat of the Conservatives?

At this point in time even that question is a long way away. For now, the media and pundits will be looking at who might throw their hat into the ring. Can they raise the necessary funds? Which potential candidates will be seating MPs or defeated candidates?

Canadians will be asking themselves do I care, and if I do is there a giant slayer amongst them?

 

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As we approach the month of June, the Liberal party will soon be making a decision on when to hold their next leadership convention. Attached to that decision will be another key one as they must also...
As we approach the month of June, the Liberal party will soon be making a decision on when to hold their next leadership convention. Attached to that decision will be another key one as they must also...
 
 
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TheRenaissanceMan
A starry-eyed idealist with too much time
06:28 AM on 05/09/2012
Its too soon to say that the Liberals are toast, but I don't see a resurgence likely unless the Liberal leadership candidate does extremely well AND Mulcair and the current NDP shadow cabinet crashes and burns. I don't see that likely.

I think we ought to get used to the NDP-Conservative dichotomy. I just hope that enough people realize this, as to prevent vote splitting in the next election.
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04:19 AM on 05/09/2012
"Is There a Giant Slayer Among the Liberal Leadership Candidates?"

Ya, the voters...
10:56 PM on 05/08/2012
The biggest challenge for the next Liberal leader, will be to slay the old-dogs trying to run the party from behind the scene...
08:56 PM on 05/08/2012
""""and if I do is there a giant slayer amongst them?"""""

if your intimating that harper is a giant -----i would agree ------giant failure
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greenmonk
The Only Thing We Have to Fear Is Fear Itself
07:41 PM on 05/08/2012
Justin Trudeau.
I don't know if Canadians would vote him in this early in his career, but the Justin is part of the Canadian Kennedys. If he was marketed the right way by the Liberal party, in a few years, there is no doubt he'd be a shoe in.
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04:29 AM on 05/09/2012
Doubtful. Most Canadians living from the Trudeau-era will never vote for another one and the next generation of voters are looking for new parties. Canada has never really been just a two party country like the Yanks, yet only two have really had power until last election when the NDP came in a strong second. You will see a shift in parties (names and coalitions perhaps) likely the fallout after the next federal election in 2015. If Harper isn't forced to resign before then, but we will probably have to escort him out of office in cuffs...
09:25 AM on 05/09/2012
He would probably be a capable leader but at this point he's been tainted by the medias obsession with creating a liberal messiah and its fixation with the Trudeau name. If he became leader now the talking heads would create expectations that would just set him up to fail. His name already gets bandied about so much by the pundits that it's creating "Trudeau fatigue". Which is a pity.