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The certainty of Clinton success is brought into question when we accept the fact that Clinton and Trump were virtually tied in polls towards the end of May. In what has been possibly the worst month a presumptive nominee could have, we see Trump still within five per cent of Clinton nationally, and still very competitive in key battleground states.
"I think it was a pretty good night and it's important for the industry to have a win."
Jonathan Hayward/The Canadian Press
Reminder: All 338 seats are currently up for grabs.
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Projections are only as good as the polls they are based on.
Paul Chiasson/The Canadian Press
The 2015 federal election is awash with so-called information: left, right and centre. Partisans can find a poll to match almost any desired electoral outcome. This election is being defined by national trendlines. It's not healthy for democracy. The number of minutes wasted and columns spilled in earnest of polling results that are literally worth as much as the media paid for them: nothing.
The Canadian Press
Something happened in the first week of October.
For Trudeau to have a shot, he must win that battleground.
Bill Graveland/The Canadian Press, Matt Grant/FB
OTTAWA — It's not as dramatic as Canada's annual spring break-up — or a high school break-up, for that matter — but pollsters say the logjam that has characterized national public opinion surveys for...
Grant's slight lead is with those in the 18-34 age category.
"The fact is that we had a three-way race and we still do, it’s just that two parties may be heading in opposite directions right now."
"For a lot of Canadians, they see that they're faced with imperfect choices."
There's a reason seat projections in 2011 mostly failed to predict a Tory majority.
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Harper and Trudeau should be very worried by the lead Mulcair currently enjoys.
There is also around a three per cent chance of a virtual tie between the Tories and the NDP.
The answer lies in the numbers.
"Liberals should be very concerned. But the worst news here may be for the Conservatives."
TORONTO - The plethora of public opinion polls done during the Ontario election campaign proved reasonably predictive of the actual results, but questions remain about the polling industry and how its...