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Late into Tuesday evening, Jake Tapper of CNN said that if Trump wins the election, "it's going to put the polling industry out of business." Well, Trump won the election, and not surprisingly, many have said my industry is in crisis. That's understandable. A Clinton victory seem like a sure thing. But was it?
The 2015 federal election is awash with so-called information: left, right and centre. Partisans can find a poll to match almost any desired electoral outcome. This election is being defined by national trendlines. It's not healthy for democracy. The number of minutes wasted and columns spilled in earnest of polling results that are literally worth as much as the media paid for them: nothing.
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The Harper government has ordered extra taxpayer-paid polling in the months leading up to the scheduled October election, spending beyond its budget and asking Canadians more questions about hot topic...
Online polls can be fun and if we want to determine the public's opinion on their favourite colour, or why they like Britney Spears better than Madonna, they can be accurate enough to be newsworthy, I suppose. I think we have to look at the differences between American and Canadian politics and culture to understand why online polls don't accurately reflect public opinion accurately enough when it comes to voting intentions.
I've been a pollster for 40 years. Internet polling enables us to explore subjects once very difficult, if not impossible, to cover via telephone surveys. Further, online polling provides opportunities to put video and photos in front of people for truer reactions.
It's impossible to keep a good idea down for long -- and a looming NDP landslide may put electoral reform back on British Columbia's political radar. Many casual observers would say such disconnect between the number of votes and seats is unfair. But this is becoming a recurring phenomenon in B.C. The way British Columbians elect MLAs was a hot topic of debate after the 2001 B.C. Liberal landslide, which saw a 58 per cent vote count turn into 97 per cent of the seats in the legislature.
Polling is a long haul game. Jitters of points inside margins of errors don't showcase who has different levels of support or who is the newest front runner in the media past time of political horse races.
Globalization, new technologies and immigration are dissolving many of the bonds that held societies together. Leaders can no longer count on the kind of stability and cohesion they used to take for granted.