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Paul Sylvester

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Big Infrastructure Projects Have High Risks but High Rewards

Posted: 07/07/11 08:50 AM ET

Commentators in the United States often lament the country's seeming loss of will to take on the kinds of big infrastructure projects that made the nation great in the first place; founding the Tennessee Valley Authority in the 1930s to provide electricity and economic development to Tennessee and six neighboring states; providing long distance road travel throughout the lower 48 states by constructing the Interstate Highway System beginning in 1950s; and, of course, landing men on the Moon in the Apollo program of the 1960s, which spurred scientific and technological innovations that continue to today, just to name a few.

China meanwhile seems to be getting on with the business of building a 21st century country. A new, $5 billion US, 2,525 kilometer (1,575 mile) railway between Beijing and Hong Kong was completed in 1997, and there are plans to spend $100 billion US to lay down tracks for a 12,000 kilometer (7,500 mile) high-speed railroad, running trains at speeds up to 300 kilometers (185 miles) per hour.

The Three Gorges Dam is the world's largest and costliest (estimated at $30 billion US or more) hydro power project ever undertaken, with a capacity to produce of 18,000 megawatts of electricity. The reality of a non-democratic country boldly building big things intended to service a large modern state challenges the paradigm taught for decades that only democracies can produce such successes.

It is with this background that news reached us on Canada Day (July 1) that the Innu Nation of Labrador ratified the New Dawn Agreement, marking another step toward the start of the Lower Churchill Project, a hydroelectric development that will transmit electrical power from Labrador, across the Strait of Belle Isle, down to the island of Newfoundland, and then across the Cabot Strait into Nova Scotia, with the possibility of exporting excess power to the rest of the Maritimes and New England.

It is an audacious plan undertaken by two Canadian provinces, Newfoundland and Labrador and Nova Scotia, with a combined population of only about 1.5 million people. It should remind us that the ability to tackle big infrastructure projects is still alive in North America, and inspire us to embrace similar projects elsewhere.

The project in Atlantic Canada is estimated to cost between $6-$9 billion CAD (the Canadian and US dollars are approximately at parity at present) for construction of a 824-megawatt generating facility at Muskrat Falls on the lower Churchill River in Labrador; a 1,100-kilometer (680 mile) transmission link to the island of Newfoundland, including 30 kilometers (19 miles) of submarine cable; a maritime link to Nova Scotia including 180 kilometers (112 miles) of submarine cable; and other transmission infrastructure.

The New Dawn Agreement includes provisions for native peoples in Labrador to receive a royalty of five per cent of net project revenue and payments of $2 million CAD per year until the project first begins generating commercial power, expected to be in 2017. Forty per cent of the electricity output will be sold to customers in Newfoundland, replacing the current oil-burning facility that generates electricity on the island; 20 per cent will provided to Nova Scotia customers, representing almost 10 per cent of the province's domestic needs; and the remaining 40 per cent will be available for sales to other parts of the Maritimes or in the United States. There is an option to expand the development significantly later, by building a 2,250-megawatt hydroelectric plant at Gull Island, further upstream on the lower Churchill River.

The project is not without its challenges or critics. Taxpayers in Newfoundland and Labrador will be burdened with the capital costs of the development and electricity prices for customers will inevitably increase. Even Nalcor Energy, the provincial crown corporation power utility responsible for the project in Newfoundland and Labrador estimates that customers in the province will pay about 15 cents per kilowatt hour for electricity in 2017 compared to about 10 per cent today.

Some have argued that the total project costs are likely to be closer to $15 billion CAD so the costs to taxpayers may be much more than those predicted now. The project is already behind schedule and it is unclear if power will really begin flowing by 2017. Some have doubted that markers for electricity generated by the project will exist in New England and other eastern U.S. states in the coming decades if local sources of energy continue to be available, particularly natural gas hosted by shale rocks, which seems much more abundant than was thought even just a few years ago.

While many of these concerns may be true, what many miss is that big infrastructure projects are, by their very nature, high risk, high reward enterprises. One does not go into them lightly but, at the same time, one should not let their uncertainties provide cover for a lack of courage to take them on.

Intangibles play a role in predicting the future. In this case, hydroelectric power generation has a small carbon footprint compared to many other energy sources, and it is very possible that in the years to come, this source of energy will become highly valued in a world struggling mightily to reduce greenhouse warming.

This is not to say that damming rivers and flooding lands does not have adverse environmental impacts and perhaps other technologies such as wind and solar power seen as even more "environmentally-friendly" will be more appropriate for some regions than hydroelectric plants. Which leads to the final point -- debating when and where to tackle big infrastructure projects, and which ones, is still an advantage held by democracies.

 
 
 
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10:23 AM on 07/11/2011
Paul Sylvester raises important issues. A major problem is the scale of infrastructure projects. Lessons from all over the world suggest that "big" does little to help people in their communities -- in fact often displaces them and badly damages the environment. Infrastructure projects should be scaled to community needs. For example, in some communities aging natural gas transmission pipelines need to be replaced with far safer modern technology. There have already been too many accidents -- including fatal accidents in recent months. Replacing them would mean jobs and safer communities. See: http://ecosquared.wordpress.com/2011/02/05/an-explosion-of-opportunity/ for more information.
10:07 PM on 07/10/2011
Any major project like this in the US would be delayed for years by the Sierra Club lawsuits to protect the snail dart or the prarie dog.
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02:15 PM on 07/10/2011
Yeah, great. Centralized energy structure is a move backwards!!! That's like saying "IBM is going to create a new centralized mainframe we can all visit to do our computing." Ridiculous.

DE-centralized, distributed, clean and redundant power, connected by MICROGRIDS is the future. It is more reliable, more affordable, more efficient and more economically and environmentally sound. Start with rooftop/in-city PV, passive heating/cooling, efficiency upgrades, and micro-hydro/micro-wind where appropriate, then add super-efficient fuel cells that run on waste gas, and clean batteries like the hydrogen batteries being developed at MIT.

We cannot cover our nations with SF6-spewing, power-shedding, highly vulnerable and monopoly-owned transmission lines linking remote, destructive power generation to the places where it was needed. Maybe that used to be the best way (or not), but it absolutely is not any longer.
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bcbailey64
02:13 AM on 07/08/2011
Fantastic. Build it yesterday! I agree that big infrastructure projects invigorate a country and imbue it with a sense of confidence for the future. We have gradually lost this confidence since the 1960's and our leaders now lack a grand vision which is holding us back. If Sir John A could build a railway across the world's second largest country in the 1870's and 80's when we only had 3.5 million people, then we should be landing on Mars by now!!!
09:02 PM on 07/07/2011
You forgot to mention the real reason for the project. Former premier Danny Williams out right refused to negotiate any deal with Quebec and wanted this project to be up and running so he could retire from politics with full lime light. The under sea cable and its length will considerably reduce the efficincy of the project (losses due to transmission increase with length). Any bennifits from Muskrat Falls may be lost here. The other part (gull Island at some 2200 megawats) may prove more feasible but the real icing on the cake will be when the famous Upper Churchill contract expires in 2041 and the power can then be re-routed via the under sea cable. The wild card is this: Soon we will run out of oil and with climate change a real threat, what alternative will dominate the energ seen? Remember, the upper Churchill project covers and area of some 6300 square km and produces about the same wattage/square metre as the present day photo voltaic solar panels. This hardly makes it a green project but rather one of the most destructive types of power on earth. Anyone with an interest in tis article should pay more attention to the research from around the world in th field of energy.
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greysells2
grey cells matter
04:21 PM on 07/08/2011
What ever happend to low head hydro projects for communities to provide power for its citizens and wind surplus power onto the grid. These smaller projects are less capital intensive per kWhr of power generated, I think. Anyone know any thing of this?
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john frodo
armchair expert
09:18 AM on 07/07/2011
Great plan except for the undersea cable, why cant our provinces co operate, there is some 6 billion of waste on the table, should be enough scraps for everyone to do the right thing.
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FearlessFreep
A radical leftist with a JS Woodsworth avatar.
09:40 PM on 07/07/2011
Newfoundlanders are still sore about the Churchill Falls deal that ended up giving Quebec a big windfall but not them.