Peter Hall
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Peter Hall, is the Chief Economist at Export Development Canada (EDC). A 25-year veteran of economic forecasting, Peter oversees a group of economists and political risk analysts that help EDC in providing approximately $100 billion in financing and insurance products to over 7700 Canadian companies across nearly 200 markets.

Entries by Peter Hall

Canada Should Catch This Economic Wave

(0) Comments | Posted July 17, 2014 | 12:22 PM

Surfers agree that catching the right wave is part science, part art -- and all-important. The same goes for economic waves. Even big ones can take us by surprise, and winning firms, industries and countries are the ones that correctly anticipate and position themselves to ride the best waves well....

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Are We Wrong About China's Economy?

(8) Comments | Posted June 25, 2014 | 5:35 PM

Worried about China's economy? Join the chorus. Its doleful dirge has been going on for well over a year. The focus has been on internal woes: alarming housing excesses, bloated business inventories, excessive productive capacity, concerns about financial sector issues and the like. There hasn't been as much talk about...

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How Canada's Growth is Leading to a Robust International Front

(0) Comments | Posted June 20, 2014 | 12:56 PM

For those whose working lives began in the past 5-7 years, "normal" has been pretty gloomy. For much of that abnormally long period, a key economic ingredient - confidence - has been missing. In the middle of last year, it made a comeback. No, it's not really roaring back, but...

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What Is the UK Telling Us About the Global Economy?

(1) Comments | Posted June 11, 2014 | 4:25 PM

The view is spectacular. I am currently on Scotland's west coast looking out at the Ailsa Craig. Weather can be rough here, but at the moment the sun is out, the water is clear, the wind is warm. Perhaps it's a good picture of what's going on in the U.K....

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Is Globalization Finally Dead?

(30) Comments | Posted June 5, 2014 | 12:59 PM

Even before the last economic cycle ended, the bell was tolling. High energy prices were driving globalization onto the rocks, according to a highly-publicized Canadian book. The onset of crisis compounded the doomsaying. Me-first nationalism swept across the planet, threatening to undo the vast global integration that was the last...

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Currencies Are Another Casualty of Quantitative Easing's Final Act

(0) Comments | Posted May 28, 2014 | 12:14 PM

Just over a year ago, markets went into a tailspin. At that time then-Fed Chairman Bernanke made what was supposed to be a benign announcement that gave new meaning to the word "taper." Currencies were thrust into the mayhem well ahead of the statement becoming action, as markets tried to...

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After Five Years of Waiting, Canada's Economy is Finally Reopening

(5) Comments | Posted May 20, 2014 | 5:06 PM

It's good to know where we have been. It's better to know where we are right now. But it's perhaps best to know where we are going. Economic indicators tell stories about all three. They clearly tell the sad tale of our crisis- and post-crisis journey. They also speak loudly...

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The Politics of Monetary Tightening

(0) Comments | Posted May 15, 2014 | 11:01 AM

When it comes to elections, timing is critical. This year brings a rash of elections in some of the most important emerging markets: Brazil, India, Indonesia, Turkey and South Africa are all going to the polls in 2014. These also happen to be members of the "fragile five" countries most...

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This Economic Cycle's Oxymoron: More Growth, Less Cash

(0) Comments | Posted May 8, 2014 | 5:29 PM

Cash has been plentiful in emerging markets. Between 2009-2012 as quantitative easing ramped up, there was a massive expansion in borrowing on global bond markets by emerging market (EM) sovereigns, banks and companies. As a result, EM economies are now closely integrated into global debt markets, and thus more affected...

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Watch Out! The Central Bank Will Raise Interest Rates Soon

(1) Comments | Posted May 2, 2014 | 12:45 PM

Brace yourselves. An unprecedented change is currently underway in financial markets, something not seen in the history of the global economy. For nearly five years, the world financial system has been awash in liquidity, flooded with a torrent of dollars, but the tide is turning. Quantitative easing by the U.S....

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Can Canadians Handle the Economic White Water Ahead?

(0) Comments | Posted April 24, 2014 | 12:00 PM

Most people aren't. It has been a long, cold, snowy winter in most parts of Canada, and spring is coming as a great relief. With the warmer temperatures, the spring runoff is starting, and warnings about high, fast-running water are cropping up. Sounds a lot like the global economy. It...

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The Hidden Truth in Unemployment Stats

(6) Comments | Posted April 16, 2014 | 5:29 PM

Have you seen the numbers lately? We should be celebrating in the streets! Recent economic performance has driven unemployment rates down to levels that many believed would not be seen for years to come. So why doesn't it feel that way? Is everyone missing the greatest development in the world...

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What Canada's Export Numbers Tell Us About Global Demand

(0) Comments | Posted April 9, 2014 | 4:12 PM

Last week's merchandise trade figures were pretty impressive, all things considered. Weather has wracked a lot of January and February indicators, but so far, you can count out Canadian trade. Were we just lucky, did we capitalize on others' weather misfortunes, or is something else going on?

Likely all three...

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Are Prices About to Go Up?

(0) Comments | Posted April 3, 2014 | 4:12 PM

"Below target": It's becoming the annoyingly common anthem of statistical agencies' press releases on price growth. Central banks are joining the chorus, which when played sounds like a dirge for prices that harmonizes closely with the well-worn tunes of the 'new normal', low-growth movement. Admittedly, singing upbeat songs about price...

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The World Is Getting Hungrier

(1) Comments | Posted March 6, 2014 | 2:26 PM

Agriculture is rarely found in the "wow" segments of the media. It typically operates in the economic background, a critical but unsung sector of industry. Until some crisis interrupts its supply chain, that is. Mere rumours of food shortage are enough to incite panic; grocery store shelves empty instantly when...

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Get Set for the Next Round of Rate Tightening

(0) Comments | Posted February 26, 2014 | 4:44 PM

Nobody minds much when employment, GDP, leading indicators, confidence and other key growth-signals are up. But when 'up' starts to get in to the interest rate discourse, it's usually not so pleasant. After three-and-a-half years of ho-hum on this front, there is renewed interest in interest rates: where they are...

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Canadian Trade: Pros and Cons for 2014

(0) Comments | Posted February 18, 2014 | 4:47 PM

When international trade collapsed in 2009, the Canadian economy turned inward, and for a change, discovered a steady source of growth. That source is now tapped out, and economy-watchers have for some time turned their eyes back to trade. So far, the view has been uninspiring. Will Canadian trade carry...

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Why Colombia's is the Next Economy to Watch

(0) Comments | Posted February 5, 2014 | 11:56 AM

Remember early 2008? Growth was great, resources looked scarce, and commodity prices were soaring. Scan the banter, and it almost seemed as if there were no new frontiers to tackle in the world economy. That worry actually spurred a search that ignited interest in new prospects. Colombia is a great...

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Thinking Growth Markets? Think Mexico, Again.

(0) Comments | Posted January 29, 2014 | 4:14 PM

One brief look at Mexico's GDP numbers for 2013, and you'd likely say, "What happened?" At the outset of the year, forecasts were calling for between 3-to-4 per cent growth. Instead, the final tally is looking more like 1.2 per cent. That's a pretty sizeable miss. If lots went wrong...

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Business Investment: A Sleeping Giant Awakens?

(0) Comments | Posted January 22, 2014 | 4:15 PM

Economy-watchers with a bent for the wild side love business investment. It's volatile, fickle, and often large and lumpy. It shows up when it wants to, often after the party is in full swing. There's also heavy global competition to win investment projects -- it is increasingly influenced by generous...

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