Peter Hall
Peter Hall, is the Chief Economist at Export Development Canada (EDC). A 25-year veteran of economic forecasting, Peter oversees a group of economists and political risk analysts that help EDC in providing approximately $100 billion in financing and insurance products to over 7700 Canadian companies across nearly 200 markets.

Entries by Peter Hall

Has Canada Lost That Latin Feeling?

(0) Comments | Posted October 17, 2014 | 12:24 PM

It's happening to emerging markets everywhere. Slower growth seems to have taken hold of the world's ascendant economies. The reasons for decline are manifold: sluggish developed-world growth; internal policy woes; structural constraints; geopolitical developments; weak commodity prices; and the list goes on. Heralded not so long ago as economic engines...

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How Small Businesses Get Big International Results

(0) Comments | Posted October 3, 2014 | 12:27 PM

Exporting. Globalization. Diversification. These are big terms, and we usually associate them with big business. We can even go as far as to think that in a great, big, new, trading world, small business really doesn't fit the model, doesn't really belong in the game -- that you really need...

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The US Sleeping Giant Is Finally Waking Up

(1) Comments | Posted September 25, 2014 | 12:29 PM

Back in 2009, today's title seemed far-fetched. Impossibly over-leveraged US consumers looked like they were down for the count, almost stone dead. Their massive debt wall collided with plunging employment and an evaporation of the equity in their biggest single investment: the family home. Popular thought at the time held...

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Why Businesses Should Always Be Asking "What's Next?"

(0) Comments | Posted September 18, 2014 | 12:48 PM

Technology has transformed life in more ways than we can list. In just over a century, humans have learned how to fly, commute in cars, talk over wires and now through thin air, process trillions of digits in nanoseconds in microchips made out of sand -- and the list is...

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Don't Worry About Canada's Trade Deficit

(1) Comments | Posted September 12, 2014 | 5:48 PM

We used to take surpluses for granted. But one key feature of post-crisis Canada was the emergence of a persistent trade deficit. In general, the word 'deficit' scares us, and in most cases, it should. But in this case, the red ink speaks of the resilience of Canadian domestic demand...

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Why We Should Worry About Slow Euro-Area Growth

(0) Comments | Posted September 4, 2014 | 12:48 PM

To many, Europe is going through a much less happy version of the Ice Bucket Challenge. Recent data are sending a swift chill through markets, dampening its year-long recovery enthusiasm. It now seems that this 21 per cent of global GDP is again at risk, just another in a long...

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Why Companies in These Markets Are in a Buying Mood

(0) Comments | Posted August 28, 2014 | 5:31 PM

Money talks. Right now, it's telling us what business thinks about near-term growth. And a great gauge of this conversation is the opinion of purchasing managers. All over the world, buyers in companies, regardless of size or reach, are making daily decisions about acquiring the inputs needed to produce what...

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How Canadian Companies Are Adding Emerging Markets To Their Export Strategy

(0) Comments | Posted August 21, 2014 | 9:19 AM

What is one of the most remarkable features of the Canadian economy in the past 15 years? The diversification of international trade to less-traditional global markets. The tech wreck, the thickening border with the U.S. and the soaring loonie in the mid-2000's turned the attention of Canada's exporters to fast-growing...

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Are Exports Driving Our Economy?

(0) Comments | Posted August 14, 2014 | 3:40 PM

OK, you're right -- this is really last week's news. But it is worth repeating. For a good many months now, economy watchers of many stripes have been looking to Canadian exporters to take the wheel and drive the economy forward. It has been an anxious wait, but it finally...

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Don't Believe Gloomy Headlines - The Global Economy Is Picking Up

(3) Comments | Posted August 7, 2014 | 12:41 PM

Daily news seems to run cross-grain to this week's title. A deepening crisis between Russia and Ukraine. Intensifying strife in the Middle East. A rapid outbreak of deadly disease in West Africa. Wild weather and natural disasters. Some are concluding that we need to factor in these events -- which...

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Canada Should Catch This Economic Wave

(0) Comments | Posted July 17, 2014 | 12:22 PM

Surfers agree that catching the right wave is part science, part art -- and all-important. The same goes for economic waves. Even big ones can take us by surprise, and winning firms, industries and countries are the ones that correctly anticipate and position themselves to ride the best waves well....

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Are We Wrong About China's Economy?

(8) Comments | Posted June 25, 2014 | 5:35 PM

Worried about China's economy? Join the chorus. Its doleful dirge has been going on for well over a year. The focus has been on internal woes: alarming housing excesses, bloated business inventories, excessive productive capacity, concerns about financial sector issues and the like. There hasn't been as much talk about...

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How Canada's Growth is Leading to a Robust International Front

(0) Comments | Posted June 20, 2014 | 12:56 PM

For those whose working lives began in the past 5-7 years, "normal" has been pretty gloomy. For much of that abnormally long period, a key economic ingredient - confidence - has been missing. In the middle of last year, it made a comeback. No, it's not really roaring back, but...

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What Is the UK Telling Us About the Global Economy?

(1) Comments | Posted June 11, 2014 | 4:25 PM

The view is spectacular. I am currently on Scotland's west coast looking out at the Ailsa Craig. Weather can be rough here, but at the moment the sun is out, the water is clear, the wind is warm. Perhaps it's a good picture of what's going on in the U.K....

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Is Globalization Finally Dead?

(30) Comments | Posted June 5, 2014 | 12:59 PM

Even before the last economic cycle ended, the bell was tolling. High energy prices were driving globalization onto the rocks, according to a highly-publicized Canadian book. The onset of crisis compounded the doomsaying. Me-first nationalism swept across the planet, threatening to undo the vast global integration that was the last...

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Currencies Are Another Casualty of Quantitative Easing's Final Act

(0) Comments | Posted May 28, 2014 | 12:14 PM

Just over a year ago, markets went into a tailspin. At that time then-Fed Chairman Bernanke made what was supposed to be a benign announcement that gave new meaning to the word "taper." Currencies were thrust into the mayhem well ahead of the statement becoming action, as markets tried to...

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After Five Years of Waiting, Canada's Economy is Finally Reopening

(5) Comments | Posted May 20, 2014 | 5:06 PM

It's good to know where we have been. It's better to know where we are right now. But it's perhaps best to know where we are going. Economic indicators tell stories about all three. They clearly tell the sad tale of our crisis- and post-crisis journey. They also speak loudly...

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The Politics of Monetary Tightening

(0) Comments | Posted May 15, 2014 | 11:01 AM

When it comes to elections, timing is critical. This year brings a rash of elections in some of the most important emerging markets: Brazil, India, Indonesia, Turkey and South Africa are all going to the polls in 2014. These also happen to be members of the "fragile five" countries most...

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This Economic Cycle's Oxymoron: More Growth, Less Cash

(0) Comments | Posted May 8, 2014 | 5:29 PM

Cash has been plentiful in emerging markets. Between 2009-2012 as quantitative easing ramped up, there was a massive expansion in borrowing on global bond markets by emerging market (EM) sovereigns, banks and companies. As a result, EM economies are now closely integrated into global debt markets, and thus more affected...

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Watch Out! The Central Bank Will Raise Interest Rates Soon

(1) Comments | Posted May 2, 2014 | 12:45 PM

Brace yourselves. An unprecedented change is currently underway in financial markets, something not seen in the history of the global economy. For nearly five years, the world financial system has been awash in liquidity, flooded with a torrent of dollars, but the tide is turning. Quantitative easing by the U.S....

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