Peter Hall
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Peter Hall, is the Chief Economist at Export Development Canada (EDC). A 25-year veteran of economic forecasting, Peter oversees a group of economists and political risk analysts that help EDC in providing approximately $100 billion in financing and insurance products to over 7700 Canadian companies across nearly 200 markets.

Entries by Peter Hall

If Growth Goes Up, Shouldn't Oil Prices Rise?

(4) Comments | Posted November 20, 2014 | 11:32 AM

The planet was on red alert. No, not a threat of imminent invasion. Not a global epidemic. And it wasn't about a geopolitical unraveling. Not even impending economic and financial collapse. It was all about energy. In early 2008, the messages were clear. We are running out of oil. All...

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Political Risks on the Rise all Over?

(0) Comments | Posted November 13, 2014 | 5:58 PM

Ask anyone you meet on the street whether political risk has risen in the last few years, and you'd likely get a convincing "yes." Crisis has fed our appetite for media sensation, and on the global political front there has been no lack of material. What appeared to be rock-solid...

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Dredging Up the Dreaded Economic "D-Word"

(0) Comments | Posted November 6, 2014 | 2:29 PM

You thought it was dead for good. So did I. It's a proven misfit in an ever-globalizing world. But the 'D' word is back. The U.S. economy is on the move, but Europe is stuck in the mud. Suddenly, there's lots of talk -- once again -- about decoupling. Plot...

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Why Things Are Looking Good For Canadian Export Growth

(1) Comments | Posted November 3, 2014 | 5:30 PM

Recent financial market turbulence has stirred up the fear factor again. European weakness has revived concern about the direction of global growth and the world's vulnerability to the structural fissures created by the Great Recession. To the bystander, it's another déjà vu of nascent recovery taking back seat to a...

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Playing Ball With China

(0) Comments | Posted October 24, 2014 | 7:09 PM

If you build it, he will come. In this case, "it" is not a baseball diamond, but a renminbi (RMB) hub, and "he" is not Shoeless Joe Jackson, but rather a business community eager to trade and invest in RMB. So far, the "build-it first" approach has paid dividends for...

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Has Canada Lost That Latin Feeling?

(0) Comments | Posted October 17, 2014 | 1:24 PM

It's happening to emerging markets everywhere. Slower growth seems to have taken hold of the world's ascendant economies. The reasons for decline are manifold: sluggish developed-world growth; internal policy woes; structural constraints; geopolitical developments; weak commodity prices; and the list goes on. Heralded not so long ago as economic engines...

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How Small Businesses Get Big International Results

(0) Comments | Posted October 3, 2014 | 1:27 PM

Exporting. Globalization. Diversification. These are big terms, and we usually associate them with big business. We can even go as far as to think that in a great, big, new, trading world, small business really doesn't fit the model, doesn't really belong in the game -- that you really need...

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The US Sleeping Giant Is Finally Waking Up

(1) Comments | Posted September 25, 2014 | 1:29 PM

Back in 2009, today's title seemed far-fetched. Impossibly over-leveraged US consumers looked like they were down for the count, almost stone dead. Their massive debt wall collided with plunging employment and an evaporation of the equity in their biggest single investment: the family home. Popular thought at the time held...

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Why Businesses Should Always Be Asking "What's Next?"

(0) Comments | Posted September 18, 2014 | 1:48 PM

Technology has transformed life in more ways than we can list. In just over a century, humans have learned how to fly, commute in cars, talk over wires and now through thin air, process trillions of digits in nanoseconds in microchips made out of sand -- and the list is...

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Don't Worry About Canada's Trade Deficit

(1) Comments | Posted September 12, 2014 | 6:48 PM

We used to take surpluses for granted. But one key feature of post-crisis Canada was the emergence of a persistent trade deficit. In general, the word 'deficit' scares us, and in most cases, it should. But in this case, the red ink speaks of the resilience of Canadian domestic demand...

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Why We Should Worry About Slow Euro-Area Growth

(0) Comments | Posted September 4, 2014 | 1:48 PM

To many, Europe is going through a much less happy version of the Ice Bucket Challenge. Recent data are sending a swift chill through markets, dampening its year-long recovery enthusiasm. It now seems that this 21 per cent of global GDP is again at risk, just another in a long...

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Why Companies in These Markets Are in a Buying Mood

(0) Comments | Posted August 28, 2014 | 6:31 PM

Money talks. Right now, it's telling us what business thinks about near-term growth. And a great gauge of this conversation is the opinion of purchasing managers. All over the world, buyers in companies, regardless of size or reach, are making daily decisions about acquiring the inputs needed to produce what...

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How Canadian Companies Are Adding Emerging Markets To Their Export Strategy

(0) Comments | Posted August 21, 2014 | 10:19 AM

What is one of the most remarkable features of the Canadian economy in the past 15 years? The diversification of international trade to less-traditional global markets. The tech wreck, the thickening border with the U.S. and the soaring loonie in the mid-2000's turned the attention of Canada's exporters to fast-growing...

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Are Exports Driving Our Economy?

(0) Comments | Posted August 14, 2014 | 4:40 PM

OK, you're right -- this is really last week's news. But it is worth repeating. For a good many months now, economy watchers of many stripes have been looking to Canadian exporters to take the wheel and drive the economy forward. It has been an anxious wait, but it finally...

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Don't Believe Gloomy Headlines - The Global Economy Is Picking Up

(3) Comments | Posted August 7, 2014 | 1:41 PM

Daily news seems to run cross-grain to this week's title. A deepening crisis between Russia and Ukraine. Intensifying strife in the Middle East. A rapid outbreak of deadly disease in West Africa. Wild weather and natural disasters. Some are concluding that we need to factor in these events -- which...

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Canada Should Catch This Economic Wave

(0) Comments | Posted July 17, 2014 | 1:22 PM

Surfers agree that catching the right wave is part science, part art -- and all-important. The same goes for economic waves. Even big ones can take us by surprise, and winning firms, industries and countries are the ones that correctly anticipate and position themselves to ride the best waves well....

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Are We Wrong About China's Economy?

(8) Comments | Posted June 25, 2014 | 6:35 PM

Worried about China's economy? Join the chorus. Its doleful dirge has been going on for well over a year. The focus has been on internal woes: alarming housing excesses, bloated business inventories, excessive productive capacity, concerns about financial sector issues and the like. There hasn't been as much talk about...

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How Canada's Growth is Leading to a Robust International Front

(0) Comments | Posted June 20, 2014 | 1:56 PM

For those whose working lives began in the past 5-7 years, "normal" has been pretty gloomy. For much of that abnormally long period, a key economic ingredient - confidence - has been missing. In the middle of last year, it made a comeback. No, it's not really roaring back, but...

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What Is the UK Telling Us About the Global Economy?

(1) Comments | Posted June 11, 2014 | 5:25 PM

The view is spectacular. I am currently on Scotland's west coast looking out at the Ailsa Craig. Weather can be rough here, but at the moment the sun is out, the water is clear, the wind is warm. Perhaps it's a good picture of what's going on in the U.K....

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Is Globalization Finally Dead?

(30) Comments | Posted June 5, 2014 | 1:59 PM

Even before the last economic cycle ended, the bell was tolling. High energy prices were driving globalization onto the rocks, according to a highly-publicized Canadian book. The onset of crisis compounded the doomsaying. Me-first nationalism swept across the planet, threatening to undo the vast global integration that was the last...

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