Peter Hall
Peter Hall, is the Chief Economist at Export Development Canada (EDC). A 25-year veteran of economic forecasting, Peter oversees a group of economists and political risk analysts that help EDC in providing approximately $100 billion in financing and insurance products to over 7700 Canadian companies across nearly 200 markets.

Entries by Peter Hall

Why the Hysteria Over Oil Prices Is Overblown

(10) Comments | Posted January 22, 2015 | 5:17 PM

Wild stormy weather stops us in our tracks. Factories close. Offices are abandoned. School is cancelled. After the rush to stock up, stores are shuttered. And when the storm hits, it's all we can think about -- especially if the power goes out.

It can seem like an eternity,...

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Is the Mega Trend of Fiscal, Structural and Institutional Reform Losing Momentum?

(0) Comments | Posted January 15, 2015 | 5:00 PM

Coastal tides are beautiful, but reform tides can be anything but. On November 14, 1991, then-President of Argentina, Carlos Menem, boasted to a joint session of U.S. Congress about his government's deep and ambitious reform agenda. More than two decades on, the country's commercial environment is characterized by lingering transfer...

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And The Biggest Economic Surprise of the Year Goes To...

(0) Comments | Posted December 17, 2014 | 4:33 PM

Six years beyond the onset of global crisis and the lamentation seems louder: pundits are increasingly perplexed by the planet's prolonged period of perpetual perturbations. We're living through a period replete with surprises -- weather issues, political upsets, conflict, disease, economic turbulence, and so on. In fact, a huge surprise...

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Prices Are an Ocean Apart...For Now

(0) Comments | Posted December 10, 2014 | 4:48 PM

Price movements have grabbed the headlines in recent weeks. Commodity prices are falling, and as always, there are various arguments about the reasons this time. The implications are serious, so the debates are warranted. But the more pressing issue is recent movement in the general price level. Overall price growth...

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10 Great Reasons to Reject Protectionism

(7) Comments | Posted December 3, 2014 | 5:45 PM

You may recall this list. It was first printed in the fall of 2009, when global crisis gave rise to an alarming wave of neo-protectionism. With the post-crisis period starting to creep into the rear-view mirror, we are once again getting on with the business of growth. Will the decades...

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US Businesses Set to Spend in a Big Way

(0) Comments | Posted November 26, 2014 | 6:19 PM

Spending. Isn't that what consumers do? Sure, but they're not the only ones. Businesses spend too -- although you don't find them in line-ups at the mall. When businesses spend, it's often on some type of machinery, or a new building, or both. This kind of spending is investment --...

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If Growth Goes Up, Shouldn't Oil Prices Rise?

(4) Comments | Posted November 20, 2014 | 11:32 AM

The planet was on red alert. No, not a threat of imminent invasion. Not a global epidemic. And it wasn't about a geopolitical unraveling. Not even impending economic and financial collapse. It was all about energy. In early 2008, the messages were clear. We are running out of oil. All...

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Political Risks on the Rise all Over?

(0) Comments | Posted November 13, 2014 | 5:58 PM

Ask anyone you meet on the street whether political risk has risen in the last few years, and you'd likely get a convincing "yes." Crisis has fed our appetite for media sensation, and on the global political front there has been no lack of material. What appeared to be rock-solid...

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Dredging Up the Dreaded Economic "D-Word"

(0) Comments | Posted November 6, 2014 | 2:29 PM

You thought it was dead for good. So did I. It's a proven misfit in an ever-globalizing world. But the 'D' word is back. The U.S. economy is on the move, but Europe is stuck in the mud. Suddenly, there's lots of talk -- once again -- about decoupling. Plot...

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Why Things Are Looking Good For Canadian Export Growth

(1) Comments | Posted November 3, 2014 | 5:30 PM

Recent financial market turbulence has stirred up the fear factor again. European weakness has revived concern about the direction of global growth and the world's vulnerability to the structural fissures created by the Great Recession. To the bystander, it's another déjà vu of nascent recovery taking back seat to a...

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Playing Ball With China

(0) Comments | Posted October 24, 2014 | 7:09 PM

If you build it, he will come. In this case, "it" is not a baseball diamond, but a renminbi (RMB) hub, and "he" is not Shoeless Joe Jackson, but rather a business community eager to trade and invest in RMB. So far, the "build-it first" approach has paid dividends for...

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Has Canada Lost That Latin Feeling?

(0) Comments | Posted October 17, 2014 | 1:24 PM

It's happening to emerging markets everywhere. Slower growth seems to have taken hold of the world's ascendant economies. The reasons for decline are manifold: sluggish developed-world growth; internal policy woes; structural constraints; geopolitical developments; weak commodity prices; and the list goes on. Heralded not so long ago as economic engines...

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How Small Businesses Get Big International Results

(0) Comments | Posted October 3, 2014 | 1:27 PM

Exporting. Globalization. Diversification. These are big terms, and we usually associate them with big business. We can even go as far as to think that in a great, big, new, trading world, small business really doesn't fit the model, doesn't really belong in the game -- that you really need...

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The US Sleeping Giant Is Finally Waking Up

(1) Comments | Posted September 25, 2014 | 1:29 PM

Back in 2009, today's title seemed far-fetched. Impossibly over-leveraged US consumers looked like they were down for the count, almost stone dead. Their massive debt wall collided with plunging employment and an evaporation of the equity in their biggest single investment: the family home. Popular thought at the time held...

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Why Businesses Should Always Be Asking "What's Next?"

(0) Comments | Posted September 18, 2014 | 1:48 PM

Technology has transformed life in more ways than we can list. In just over a century, humans have learned how to fly, commute in cars, talk over wires and now through thin air, process trillions of digits in nanoseconds in microchips made out of sand -- and the list is...

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Don't Worry About Canada's Trade Deficit

(1) Comments | Posted September 12, 2014 | 6:48 PM

We used to take surpluses for granted. But one key feature of post-crisis Canada was the emergence of a persistent trade deficit. In general, the word 'deficit' scares us, and in most cases, it should. But in this case, the red ink speaks of the resilience of Canadian domestic demand...

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Why We Should Worry About Slow Euro-Area Growth

(0) Comments | Posted September 4, 2014 | 1:48 PM

To many, Europe is going through a much less happy version of the Ice Bucket Challenge. Recent data are sending a swift chill through markets, dampening its year-long recovery enthusiasm. It now seems that this 21 per cent of global GDP is again at risk, just another in a long...

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Why Companies in These Markets Are in a Buying Mood

(0) Comments | Posted August 28, 2014 | 6:31 PM

Money talks. Right now, it's telling us what business thinks about near-term growth. And a great gauge of this conversation is the opinion of purchasing managers. All over the world, buyers in companies, regardless of size or reach, are making daily decisions about acquiring the inputs needed to produce what...

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How Canadian Companies Are Adding Emerging Markets To Their Export Strategy

(0) Comments | Posted August 21, 2014 | 10:19 AM

What is one of the most remarkable features of the Canadian economy in the past 15 years? The diversification of international trade to less-traditional global markets. The tech wreck, the thickening border with the U.S. and the soaring loonie in the mid-2000's turned the attention of Canada's exporters to fast-growing...

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Are Exports Driving Our Economy?

(0) Comments | Posted August 14, 2014 | 4:40 PM

OK, you're right -- this is really last week's news. But it is worth repeating. For a good many months now, economy watchers of many stripes have been looking to Canadian exporters to take the wheel and drive the economy forward. It has been an anxious wait, but it finally...

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