Peter Hall
Peter Hall, is the Chief Economist at Export Development Canada (EDC). A 25-year veteran of economic forecasting, Peter oversees a group of economists and political risk analysts that help EDC in providing approximately $100 billion in financing and insurance products to over 7700 Canadian companies across nearly 200 markets.

Entries by Peter Hall

Why There's a Cash Vacuum in the Global Economy

(4) Comments | Posted June 4, 2015 | 5:45 PM

If liquidity bubbles (the unintended fallout of quantitative easing) really can deflate, then where is the evidence? Among the many places liquidity appeared to park itself, oil markets sure look like a burst bubble, down 40 per cent in the past year. The same goes for base metals, with copper...

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The Contrasting Impacts of Plummeting Oil Prices

(2) Comments | Posted May 15, 2015 | 1:49 PM

Plunging crude oil prices have dramatically changed the economic growth landscape. Canada knows this all too well -- anything related to oil seems to be in freefall, while outside of energy, industry is expecting a bonanza. The effect is being felt across the global macroeconomy. Oil exporters are counting their...

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How Canada Becoming an RMB Hub Helps Our Companies

(1) Comments | Posted March 19, 2015 | 6:17 PM

On Monday, grumpy spring break returnees will have something to smile about: the renminbi (RMB -- Chinese currency) will step into Canada with the inauguration of the only RMB hub in the Americas, one more advance on its long march to internationalization.

It all began with its first step...

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Should Canadians Be Worried About the Weak Loonie?

(2) Comments | Posted March 11, 2015 | 6:21 PM

America is worrying about its strong currency. For the most part, Canada's weak currency has been hailed as a good-news story, a benefit to the long-suffering manufacturing sector. On a net basis, the immediate effects will be positive, boosting nationwide GDP growth by up to 1.2 per cent over the...

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These Canadian Industries Are Winning the Trade Game

(2) Comments | Posted February 20, 2015 | 12:59 PM

Throw all the eggs into one basket, and if it's the right basket, you can do alright -- as long as the basket is OK. But if anything happens to the basket, you are fresh out of luck. It's exactly the same with industries. Those selling only narrowly-defined products are...

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What the Sheer Volume of Japan's Debt Really Means

(2) Comments | Posted February 13, 2015 | 5:40 PM

Thrill-seekers have had a seven-year heyday. The global economy's gyrations have provided ups and downs that have tested the strongest stomachs, and the ride is not over. Among the current exhibits are the fiscal high-wire acts that grew out of the crisis. The most popular have been the Southern European...

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What Oil Prices Are Doing to Mexico's Economy

(2) Comments | Posted February 5, 2015 | 5:49 PM

In contrast to the snow-bound North, the weather for my brief trip to Mexico last week was close to ideal. It was in stark contrast to the economic weather in emerging markets these days, which is more like what the US Northeast is currently coping with. Is Mexico's economy more...

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Why the Hysteria Over Oil Prices Is Overblown

(10) Comments | Posted January 22, 2015 | 5:17 PM

Wild stormy weather stops us in our tracks. Factories close. Offices are abandoned. School is cancelled. After the rush to stock up, stores are shuttered. And when the storm hits, it's all we can think about -- especially if the power goes out.

It can seem like an eternity,...

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Is the Mega Trend of Fiscal, Structural and Institutional Reform Losing Momentum?

(0) Comments | Posted January 15, 2015 | 5:00 PM

Coastal tides are beautiful, but reform tides can be anything but. On November 14, 1991, then-President of Argentina, Carlos Menem, boasted to a joint session of U.S. Congress about his government's deep and ambitious reform agenda. More than two decades on, the country's commercial environment is characterized by lingering transfer...

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And The Biggest Economic Surprise of the Year Goes To...

(0) Comments | Posted December 17, 2014 | 4:33 PM

Six years beyond the onset of global crisis and the lamentation seems louder: pundits are increasingly perplexed by the planet's prolonged period of perpetual perturbations. We're living through a period replete with surprises -- weather issues, political upsets, conflict, disease, economic turbulence, and so on. In fact, a huge surprise...

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Prices Are an Ocean Apart...For Now

(0) Comments | Posted December 10, 2014 | 4:48 PM

Price movements have grabbed the headlines in recent weeks. Commodity prices are falling, and as always, there are various arguments about the reasons this time. The implications are serious, so the debates are warranted. But the more pressing issue is recent movement in the general price level. Overall price growth...

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10 Great Reasons to Reject Protectionism

(6) Comments | Posted December 3, 2014 | 5:45 PM

You may recall this list. It was first printed in the fall of 2009, when global crisis gave rise to an alarming wave of neo-protectionism. With the post-crisis period starting to creep into the rear-view mirror, we are once again getting on with the business of growth. Will the decades...

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US Businesses Set to Spend in a Big Way

(0) Comments | Posted November 26, 2014 | 6:19 PM

Spending. Isn't that what consumers do? Sure, but they're not the only ones. Businesses spend too -- although you don't find them in line-ups at the mall. When businesses spend, it's often on some type of machinery, or a new building, or both. This kind of spending is investment --...

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If Growth Goes Up, Shouldn't Oil Prices Rise?

(4) Comments | Posted November 20, 2014 | 11:32 AM

The planet was on red alert. No, not a threat of imminent invasion. Not a global epidemic. And it wasn't about a geopolitical unraveling. Not even impending economic and financial collapse. It was all about energy. In early 2008, the messages were clear. We are running out of oil. All...

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Political Risks on the Rise all Over?

(0) Comments | Posted November 13, 2014 | 5:58 PM

Ask anyone you meet on the street whether political risk has risen in the last few years, and you'd likely get a convincing "yes." Crisis has fed our appetite for media sensation, and on the global political front there has been no lack of material. What appeared to be rock-solid...

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Dredging Up the Dreaded Economic "D-Word"

(0) Comments | Posted November 6, 2014 | 2:29 PM

You thought it was dead for good. So did I. It's a proven misfit in an ever-globalizing world. But the 'D' word is back. The U.S. economy is on the move, but Europe is stuck in the mud. Suddenly, there's lots of talk -- once again -- about decoupling. Plot...

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Why Things Are Looking Good For Canadian Export Growth

(1) Comments | Posted November 3, 2014 | 5:30 PM

Recent financial market turbulence has stirred up the fear factor again. European weakness has revived concern about the direction of global growth and the world's vulnerability to the structural fissures created by the Great Recession. To the bystander, it's another déjà vu of nascent recovery taking back seat to a...

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Playing Ball With China

(0) Comments | Posted October 24, 2014 | 7:09 PM

If you build it, he will come. In this case, "it" is not a baseball diamond, but a renminbi (RMB) hub, and "he" is not Shoeless Joe Jackson, but rather a business community eager to trade and invest in RMB. So far, the "build-it first" approach has paid dividends for...

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Has Canada Lost That Latin Feeling?

(0) Comments | Posted October 17, 2014 | 1:24 PM

It's happening to emerging markets everywhere. Slower growth seems to have taken hold of the world's ascendant economies. The reasons for decline are manifold: sluggish developed-world growth; internal policy woes; structural constraints; geopolitical developments; weak commodity prices; and the list goes on. Heralded not so long ago as economic engines...

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How Small Businesses Get Big International Results

(0) Comments | Posted October 3, 2014 | 1:27 PM

Exporting. Globalization. Diversification. These are big terms, and we usually associate them with big business. We can even go as far as to think that in a great, big, new, trading world, small business really doesn't fit the model, doesn't really belong in the game -- that you really need...

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