Pranking Canada's Trade Regions

International trade will be a key growth driver for the Canadian economy this year and next. However, the distribution of export growth in Canada's provinces is anything but even. Some are leading the charge, while others are steady at the national pace. Others are lagging behind,...

It's race day, and the top cars in the world are lined up. Normally psyched up, this time the drivers are very nervous. They remember the big crash of 2008 that wiped out the 2009 season. Etched on their minds is also the accident-plagued reboot to the program in 2010....

The economic and financial meteorite that crashed into the world economy back in 2008 left a massive crater. Since then, policymakers have been scrambling to fill it in. All the while, many have cast a wistful, sardonic or resentful eye at a glaring anti-crater: the mountain of money accumulating on...

Just when the Western World was worried about a serious double-dip recession, the unthinkable happened: Asia faltered. Rewind quickly to mid-2012, and the indicators for fast-growing behemoths China and India were tumbling, and with them, the fortunes of the region and global confidence. Since then, pundits have been on high...

Commodity prices are all down, right? Wrong!

Commodity prices have scored high on the economic shock-talk scale in the past decade. Although prices are generally still riding high, the recent trend has been downward. Energy, base metal and even food prices are down considerably from recent peak levels. We expect...

Normally, this column is forward-looking, but occasionally, it pays to reflect on recent events. Annual merchandise trade data for 2012 are hot off the press, and analysts are still dissecting the details. Here are some key features of 2012, and reflections on their impact on Canada's trade scene.

Exports still...

Stable is not a word that can be used to describe much in today's economy. A notable exception is the Canadian dollar. The loonie has soared in a reasonably tight range around parity with the U.S. dollar for 3 years now. Although exporters would prefer a lower level, the stability...

Few barometers of economic activity say as much as housing data. They usually give ample warning of recessions. Housing sales and construction activity is typically as good at predicting recovery. The prescience of these data speak to the deep linkages the housing sector has to the broader economy. As such,...

Few economies escaped the global slowdown in the summer of 2012. Mexico was a rare and notable exception. While marked deterioration in China, India and Brazil grabbed the headlines, Mexico quietly hummed along, generating remarkably smooth growth. For an economy so tied to US fortunes, that is quite an achievement....

Is business growing? Ask the buyers.

Want a hot gauge of economic activity? It's probably best to go to the front lines. There are many indicators of economic activity, but they don't all tell the same story. Some are just telling us what's happening now. Others lag the economy --...

Four years beyond the onset of recession, and what do we have to show for it? No conclusive recovery, deterioration in structural indicators, unprecedented pessimism and lots of volatility. In an environment like this, can we really be surprised any more? Perhaps the great surprise of 2012 is our growing...

Growth potential is a key strategic measure for any economy. It can be measured in a number of ways, but the most popular among analysts is the supply-side measure. That's the technical label for assessing future growth of the labour force, the capital stock and productivity -- the three key...

Canadian exports rose by 1 per cent in October led by a stunning increase in agricultural exports. The combination of this year's bumper harvest with high global food prices was expected to yield significant gains, but many analysts were surprised by the extent of the rise in international sales.

Coming...

Housing markets are on a tear south of the border. Against expectations, US housing starts surged to 894,000 units in October, up 42 per cent over last year's number. Some believe this is the real thing, the leading edge of a true and sustainable recovery. Others aren't persuaded, convinced that...

Mention exchange rates and most Canadians will immediately assume U.S. dollars. With most of our trade still denominated in USD, the fixation is natural. Movements in the CAD/USD rate directly affect export revenues, cost structure, profit margins and competitiveness. Appreciation from a USD 0.63 in 2002 to 1.09 in 2007...

It's coming, and it's big. The U.S. economy is careening toward the so-called fiscal cliff at a frightening pace, and it's creating a lot of concern. With the election now decided, will legislators seal a deal that allays these fears, or will political sclerosis drive America -- and...

Volatile commodity prices have wreaked havoc with the world economy in the past decade. This summer saw yet another surge in food prices. It got many wondering whether this time around, the ill-timed increase would apply the brakes to an accelerating world economy. Are they right?

Key to the price...

Weakness in the developing world has had an ugly recent effect: vibrant Asian economies wilted over the summer months, and now face a less certain path in the months ahead. Vaunted as a key engine of the world economy, Asian economic powerhouses are now contributing to the pervasive sense of...