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Let Greece Default

Posted: 10/17/11 03:22 PM ET

More than most world leaders, Canada's beloved Prime Minister Stephen Harper is acutely aware of how potentially lethal the Greek economic crisis is to the rest of the developed world.

Politicians, prime ministers and presidents tend to be lawyers more than other professions. Harper is an economist, and every economist worthy of the name has to be concerned about Greece and the ramifications throughout Europe and the world if it defaults on its debt.

Politicians are inclined to worry about the political effects of Greece defaulting. Economists look deeper and see recession-cum-depression resulting if European banks start failing -- as well they might if Greece goes under.

To his credit, Harper is trying to alert Canadians to the problem and its effect on Canada -- witness a recent article he wrote for the Globe and Mail. Finance Minister Jim Flaherty is also on board, and issuing warnings.

The trouble is, there's little a Canadian PM or finance minister can do about Greece. Seeking to get Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney appointed chief regulator of the world's banking system -- the Financial Stability Board, which is responsible for global banking regulations -- indicates how seriously Harper views the crisis.

Arguably, Canada's has the most reliable banking system in the world. We've recovered better than any other country since the 2008 recession. With Europe entering tortured waters and with various countries on the brink of defaulting on loans, Carney is a sort of Hail Mary pass to bring sense and action to international finance.

As for Greece, more bailouts seem a waste of money. Germany realizes this, and as more Germans start resisting bailing out Greece, the more difficult it is for German Chancellor Angela Merkel to continue the practice.

To put the Greek default crisis in a Canadian perspective, it is mindful of how Ottawa keeps hurling money at Indians -- who waste it lavishly -- and the federal government responds by funneling in even more money. Everyone knows this should stop, but it's so politically sensitive that no government dares correct the problem.

European countries are fearful for themselves if Greece is allowed to default.

At some point, reality has to be faced.

There is no rescuing Greece. If the country will not submit to regulations that people like Mark Carney would probably endorse, better that it not be propped up. Let it abandon the euro and revert to the drachma, until it comes to terms with itself.

Portugal, Spain and Italy are in bad shape too, and if they become the next Greece, then the effects will be felt in a world-wide depression. Or so economists tell us.

Some 20 per cent of Greeks are in the public service union. In recent years, pay has doubled; bonuses amount to two months extra pay a year; retirement is at age 60 with pensions paying more than their salary after a dozen years.

A succession of Greek governments have misreported the state of the economy, hiding the deficit. Calls for restraint and cutbacks cause strikes and riots.

Greece's leaders see the problem -- a problem they exacerbated by fudging the books, lying about the euro, pretending all was well when it wasn't. Austerity measures are rejected by Greeks -- soul mates to the Occupy Wall Street protesters that further inhibit America's recovery by attacking the "rich."

In Greece (if not Wall Street), the time has passed for Band-Aid treatment. In fact if not in name, it seems that Greece has already defaulted on its debt.

And no one has an easy solution.

 
More than most world leaders, Canada's beloved Prime Minister Stephen Harper is acutely aware of how potentially lethal the Greek economic crisis is to the rest of the developed world. Po...
More than most world leaders, Canada's beloved Prime Minister Stephen Harper is acutely aware of how potentially lethal the Greek economic crisis is to the rest of the developed world. Po...
 
 
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Marcus047
given up on HP
02:37 PM on 10/18/2011
"Canada's beloved Prime Minister Stephen Harper"

What Canada do you live in? At best, most Canadians tolerate Harper, many hate him, and only a small, small minority (of which you might be one) love him. I guess this is what we can expect from the co-founder of Canada's most popular tabloid.
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halfpricefaustian
Voted for Obama. Waiting for Godot.
10:27 AM on 10/18/2011
The Eurozone members have been quite specific to Greece about how they need to reform government pensions and cut the size of government. All valid issues, but I have not heard of any effort to cut the size of Greece's military or to curb military purchases. Why?
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
nsmavrik
Intelligence over Obedience
01:07 PM on 10/18/2011
Why?

Let me put it to you this way...Why doesn't the Israeli Government cut down on its Military Spending? Hmm? Ask yourself that. Then you will know why Greece CAN NOT and WILL NOT cut it's military spending.
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Marcus047
given up on HP
02:38 PM on 10/18/2011
ISrael is at war. Who is Greece at war with other than it's own irate citizens?
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HUFFPOST BLOGGER
messy
artist, writer, adventurer
08:46 AM on 10/18/2011
The country is shutting itself down. The GOVERNMENT is on strike. That's right, the unelected bureaucrats are the ones sitting down and chanting, and the garbage in Athens has been piling up for about a week now. There's going to be a national general strike, and protests are estimated to exceed anything the country has yet seen.

occupy wall street? pfft!
08:09 AM on 10/18/2011
If one looks at this article and the line of argument presented, I cannot help but thinking: Wow, that's weeks if not month behind the curve the debate has long since taken here in Europe, even among the leading politicians (who have to voice their ideas cautiously because of market reactions).
What we are debating right now is: Will Greece default for 50 or 60 or 80 percent? How will that affect the banking system? Will we against the stern opposition of the banking lobby just recapitalize and partly nationalize the banks? How can it be assured that this is a one-of-a-kind move and doesn't spiral out of control if PM Berlusconi thinks that defaulting a bit on Italian debt would be a good idea? Can France be protected from a downgrade or at least the negative effects of that?
07:01 AM on 10/18/2011
People who made the decision to allow Greece into the Eurozone need to be held accountable, it is proving to be most disastrous. Now years of Greek deception, entitlements and laziness are dragging the whole Eurozone down and the leaders can´t let go of the idea of rescuing the banks with more (endless) bailouts. It´s getting harder and harder to sell the bailout packages to the people and it would indeed be wise for the politicians to face the inevitable or they might find themselves out of office pretty soon.
08:04 AM on 10/18/2011
I don't quite share your view. First, and that is something which galls me about (some of) the political debates we have here in Germany, I think there is absolutely no point at all whatsoever in all this finger pointing etc. . One can't change history, we don't have time travel. We have a situation as it is and we have to focus on dealing with that. Just because Greece probably should never have been admitted into the Euro Zone in the first place doesn't mean the solution is now to just toss them out of it and assuming that after that everything would be fine. Also, just because the treaties that govern the common currency were obviously incomplete, that doesn't mean at all that returning to national currencies again is the best way out. Arguing that way is belittling people's intelligence.
Greece may or may not be better off if exiting the Euro Zone, but the rational behind it must be based on economic facts (and risks) now, not to correct a historic wrong. Even if we came to the conclusion that it was best that way economically, then we would still need to amend the international treaties because right now Greece could only exit the EU as a whole. That would most likely mean there have to be some referendums - and I am strictly against to abandon democracy and due process; we have to come up with plans that are legally watertight and feasible.
08:33 AM on 10/18/2011
You make a rational argument, I was talking a bit from emotional perspective and with less detail. To be clear I don´t think returning to national currencies is the best option either, but there has to be some restructuring (for example northern and southern Eurozone) and the treaties need reforming. The taxpayers in the well doing, responsible northern economies must not be continually made to bear the burden of keeping the whole Eurozone afloat.
08:04 AM on 10/18/2011
On a second, equally fundamental note, I think that it would be wrong to "hold accountable" (if it means "legally accountable in a court of law" those who took that decision. Do we really want to act like the Ukraine does this weeks? After a change of government seek ways to get the political predecessors into jail? (Btw, all several hundreds of them in Germany alone: the former Chancellor, Foreign Minister, Financial Minister, parliamentarians who votes "yes" when it was ratified ... ?). ... No, I think we should stick with the proven principle: Aside from criminal acts according to the criminal code, parliamentarians and governments are held accountable only at the ballot box. The verdict on that past government was passed years ago.
08:22 AM on 10/18/2011
I mean exposing the key people who knew the real state of Greek affairs and advocated their membership anyway, not necessarily legal procedings even if the conditions for fraud might fit some of the activities.
05:27 AM on 10/18/2011
Another casualty of democracy. Political systems that get elected and keep elected promising more than the country has
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GeoffMorton
01:42 AM on 10/18/2011
He lost me at "Canada's Beloved Stephen Harper"... I realized then that this was a work of fiction and that any potential wisdom would be hidden between fantasy and daydreams.
09:55 AM on 10/18/2011
LOL, same here.
f/f
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
notakochdealer
150 american workers die daily due to poor conditi
12:57 AM on 10/18/2011
Interesting read I thought til I read this "Greeks -- soul mates to the Occupy Wall Street protesters that further inhibit America's recovery by attacking the "rich."
11:40 PM on 10/17/2011
Excellent article and analysis. Greece is not going to do what is necessary to stop default. The people have become to "entitled" to benefits the meager value they create cannot support and they will not give them away without fighting, literally.

Let them drop out of the Euro and go back to the drachma and watch their standard of living drop to third world status. The richer countries with a strong work ethic (eg Germany) should not continue to pay for their bloated lifestyles.
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lenguss
10:43 PM on 10/17/2011
About the only truly realistic and sensible comment I have read yet on Greece. It WILL default, sooner or later - sooner is better. The Greeks will simply not give up their lavish government employment, which has swamped the private sector. They spend other people's money recklessly. Greece must default, leave the EU (or at least the euro, which may be the same thing), and devalue its currency. Then, maybe, they have a chance to become economically stable.
jimbo57
ni dieu ni maitre
09:54 PM on 10/17/2011
If folks had only listened to Peter Worthington's advice on South Africa, Nelson Mandela would still be in jail, and they would be debating whether or not to loosen up the pass laws.

The completely gratuitous swipe at this country's First Nations in an article ostensibly about Greece is a nice touch, very classy.

When the money thugs who own THIS country decide to attack our livelihoods and steal our pensions in the name of "austerity" and "shared sacrifice", I hope that we show the fortitude and fighting spirit of the people of Greece.
11:44 PM on 10/17/2011
The analogy of the federal government paying Indians over and over again who waste it, is like Greece taking money from the EU and then not dealing with the root of the problem.
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philhellene
Far Left and Proud of It!
09:06 PM on 10/17/2011
"Austerity measures are rejected by Greeks -- soul mates to the Occupy Wall Street protesters that further inhibit America's recovery by attacking the "rich.""

You can not get more brazenly "pro-rich, damn everyone else" than that now, can you? Another one in the camp of give everything to me, and I might let you have some crumbs, but only if you beg nicely. There are no words; there are simply no words.
11:49 PM on 10/17/2011
All you have to do is listen to some of the OWS protesters and you can see the correlation to Greeks. Greeks are rioting because they think they deserve all the entitlements they have been getting depsite not generating the value necessary to keep those benefits rolling in and now countries like Germany (where they do create value) are balking at paying for it.

Just listen to some of the OWS protesters. The students with huge student loans expecting the rest of us to pay for them because they can't get jobs. One girl was interviewed and she ran up $60K in student loans pursuing a social work degree. A social work degree!!! What the heck starting salary did she expect? How did she plan to pay bak $60K in loans making $35K per year and live a decent lifestyle? Give me a break.

Both the OWS protesters and the Greeks need to realize others shouldn't have to pay for their decisions and lifestyles.
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philhellene
Far Left and Proud of It!
11:37 AM on 10/18/2011
"One girl was interviewe­d and she ran up $60K in student loans pursuing a social work degree. A social work degree!!! What the heck starting salary did she expect?"

I suppose, if she was part of the "too big to fail" crowd, she could go running to the Federal Government and get a nice, generous bailout. Using your "logic", no one should ever purchase a home (or anything else for that matter) if they cannot buy it outright.

If you cannot bring credible arguments to the table, do not enter the debate. And one example does not prove any point.
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Jake Thomas
elastic
07:36 PM on 10/17/2011
"Indians" to whom are you referring?
11:49 PM on 10/17/2011
Are you serious?
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Jake Thomas
elastic
12:35 AM on 10/18/2011
I am serious. Indians live in India. India has a vibrant economy that will one day surpass our own. Any money invested in India is money well spent. Peter Worthington is a hackneyed writer whose tired old ideas belong on the in the dustbin of history. It is time for Pete to retire.
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SeenItBefore
Ya want to super size that?
06:55 PM on 10/17/2011
The European Union has to do what our government refused to do... cut your losses. Toss them into the Aegean with drachmas as their only floatation devices.

We were in Portugal last year when their elected officials refused austerity measures because it would demonstrate to the EU that they were incapable of managing their own affairs.
08:17 PM on 10/17/2011
The drachma at least is a flotation device unlike the Euro which is like an anchor thrown to a drowning person.
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Jake Thomas
elastic
12:40 AM on 10/18/2011
Unfortunately the EU is the ocean.
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FearlessFreep
A radical leftist with a JS Woodsworth avatar.
06:00 PM on 10/17/2011
The people of Greece would be better off if their government left the Eurozone. But of course, this is about what's good for the Euro (or what the Eurocrats think is good for it).
11:50 PM on 10/17/2011
Either way, Greece is headed for third world status and it will be generations before their standard of living comes back if at all.
05:19 AM on 10/18/2011
As a Greek (OK, half Greek), I think Greece should default, but not be kicked out of the EU. They should, however, revert back to the Drachma. I think it is important for Greece to maintain the same free movement and trade agreements with the EU, but a separate fiscal policy (something like the agreement Switzerland has with the EU).

The Euro is too expensive for Greece. With a devalued Drachma, exports will be cheap, so will inbound tourism, which Greece is heavily reliant on. Within 5-10 years, Greece will be back in the black again.

Might be a bit simplistic, but I think the general gist of it is correct. Been saying this since the whole issue with Greece started.